Lou Williams – 213hoops.com https://213hoops.com L.A. Clippers News and Analysis Fri, 19 Feb 2021 00:54:25 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.3.20 Podcast: Injured Clippers Fall to Jazz https://213hoops.com/podcast-injured-clippers-fall-to-jazz/ Thu, 18 Feb 2021 10:00:00 +0000 https://213hoops.com/?p=3998 213hoops.com
Podcast: Injured Clippers Fall to Jazz

Dr. Shap and Mike Jaglin discuss the continued absences of Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Nicolas Batum as the injured Clippers had their 4-game winning streak snapped as they fall...

Podcast: Injured Clippers Fall to Jazz
Shapan Debnath

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Podcast: Injured Clippers Fall to Jazz

Dr. Shap and Mike Jaglin discuss the continued absences of Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Nicolas Batum as the injured Clippers had their 4-game winning streak snapped as they fall to the Utah Jazz on Wednesday night.

Check out the podcast here! Be sure to rate and review us five stars on whatever platform you listen to us on, and give us feedback in the comments below!

Podcast: Injured Clippers Fall to Jazz
Shapan Debnath

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Podcast: Shorthanded Clippers Surprise Heat, Cavs https://213hoops.com/podcast-shorthanded-clippers-surprise-heat-cavs/ https://213hoops.com/podcast-shorthanded-clippers-surprise-heat-cavs/#comments Tue, 16 Feb 2021 20:00:00 +0000 https://213hoops.com/?p=3956 213hoops.com
Podcast: Shorthanded Clippers Surprise Heat, Cavs

Despite the absence of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, the shorthanded Clippers blew out the Cleveland Cavaliers Sunday night–and then surprise the Miami Heat on Monday with Patrick Beverley and...

Podcast: Shorthanded Clippers Surprise Heat, Cavs
Shapan Debnath

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213hoops.com
Podcast: Shorthanded Clippers Surprise Heat, Cavs

Despite the absence of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, the shorthanded Clippers blew out the Cleveland Cavaliers Sunday night–and then surprise the Miami Heat on Monday with Patrick Beverley and Nicolas Batum joining the inactive list as well. Dr. Shap, Lucas Hann, and Mike Jaglin discuss the pair of shocking wins, along with a guest appearance from Locked on Cavs host Chris Manning, who shared his thoughts on Clippers coach Tyronn Lue.

Check out the podcast here! Be sure to rate and review us five stars on whatever platform you listen to us on, and give us feedback in the comments below!

Podcast: Shorthanded Clippers Surprise Heat, Cavs
Shapan Debnath

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Podcast: Clippers Ease by Bulls, and Twitter Questions https://213hoops.com/podcast-clippers-ease-by-bulls-and-twitter-questions/ https://213hoops.com/podcast-clippers-ease-by-bulls-and-twitter-questions/#comments Sat, 13 Feb 2021 20:00:00 +0000 https://213hoops.com/?p=3898 213hoops.com
Podcast: Clippers Ease by Bulls, and Twitter Questions

In this episode of The Lob, The Jam, The Podcast, Dr. Shap and Robert Flom break down the Clippers’ emphatic win as they ease by Chicago Bulls and answer audience...

Podcast: Clippers Ease by Bulls, and Twitter Questions
Shapan Debnath

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Podcast: Clippers Ease by Bulls, and Twitter Questions

In this episode of The Lob, The Jam, The Podcast, Dr. Shap and Robert Flom break down the Clippers’ emphatic win as they ease by Chicago Bulls and answer audience questions submitted on twitter. Follow @213Hoops on twitter for your chance to have a question answered in a future show!

Check out the podcast here! Be sure to rate and review us five stars on whatever platform you listen to us on, and give us feedback in the comments below!

Podcast: Clippers Ease by Bulls, and Twitter Questions
Shapan Debnath

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Nicolas Batum’s offense has been a welcome addition https://213hoops.com/nicolas-batums-offense-has-been-a-welcoming-addition/ https://213hoops.com/nicolas-batums-offense-has-been-a-welcoming-addition/#comments Thu, 07 Jan 2021 20:00:00 +0000 https://213hoops.com/?p=3095 213hoops.com
Nicolas Batum’s offense has been a welcome addition

Did you have Nicolas Batum performing competently on your 2020-21 bingo card? With the clouds of his previous lucrative contract dissipated, Batum now finds himself outperforming his new minimum deal...

Nicolas Batum’s offense has been a welcome addition
Sanjesh Singh

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213hoops.com
Nicolas Batum’s offense has been a welcome addition

Did you have Nicolas Batum performing competently on your 2020-21 bingo card? With the clouds of his previous lucrative contract dissipated, Batum now finds himself outperforming his new minimum deal with the Los Angeles Clippers, as Batum’s offense has been a welcome addition for the franchise.

Just like every other team in the NBA, the Clippers have suffered a myriad of setbacks in reaching their ceiling early in the season: Marcus Morris, fresh off a 4 year, $64 million deal, is dealing with a knee issue and remains sidelined; Kawhi Leonard is playing with a mask following a mouth laceration; Luke Kennard is still adjusting to the game after not playing since early 2020; Reggie Jackson is still Reggie Jackson.

But just like we all expected, Nicolas Batum has emerged as a sound rotational player, averaging 10.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 0.9 steals in 29 minutes per game, filling in as the primary four while Morris heals. More impressive are his shooting splits of 51.6/45.7/93.8, a year removed from an abhorrent 34.6/28.6/90 season.  He’s coming off another strong game against the Phoenix Suns in which he hit 4-7 (57%) from deep, including a dagger three to repel Phoenix’s last push.

Despite the breaches in the rotation, the Clippers have catapulted to a 5-2 record, tied for first in the staunch Western Conference, and Batum’s offense has assisted that start.

Batum’s momentous output through seven games always circles back to his shooting. Last season’s abysmal production from deep in Charlotte rang bells of concern when Los Angeles picked him up. Would his shooting revert to his career average three-point percentage of 35.7? Or was last season a clear indicator the 32-year-old forward was destined for “washed” territory? This blistering start has put those concerns to sleep. Off this baseline out-of-bounds set (BLOB), the Clippers run an elbow stagger for Paul George to curl off of as Batum is situated just outside the initial down screen by Patrick Beverley. Beverley will leak out to the corner, and Batum will split between the screens as Serge Ibaka sets another one for Batum. Jae Crowder is caught ball-watching, allowing for George to stop his drive and find Batum for the open look. Splash.

Here’s another BLOB set later in the game. This time, it’s a wide pindown for Paul George, a play he’s commonly involved in. Mikal Bridges’ defensive prowess cuts off the dribble hand-off, but Devin Booker gets caught in a daze after Ivica Zubac’s down screen, permitting Batum to pop out for a three. Splash. Batum’s three-point resurgence hasn’t sparked just himself, but the entire squad. When Batum is on the floor, the Clippers are hitting their non-corner threes at a difference of +11.2%, ranking in the 92nd percentile, per Cleaning the Glass. That number will likely decrease under more minutes, but as the last two plays indicated, Ty Lue can trust Batum in these spots to convert.

Speaking of trust, how about Batum’s dagger mentioned earlier? Ibaka sets the high screen for George, but Deandre Ayton sticks to Ibaka rather than cutting off George’s lane downhill. That forced Devin Booker to collapse into the paint, freeing up the path to pass to an open Batum. Chris Paul cannot rotate in time. Splash. Batum is essentially a new toy dusted off from the top shelf for initiators like George and Leonard. With the abilities of George and Leonard to drive-and-kick, Batum’s offense, theoretically, is perfect. Per NBA.com tracking data, Batum is shooting 50% on catch-and-shoot triples; three-point attempts comprise 58.5% of Batum’s overall attempts.

Here’s Batum in action with George against Portland. LA runs a stagger screen for George, which flows into a George-Ibaka pick-and-roll set. Jusuf Nurkic shows high to prevent George’s downhill lane as CJ McCollum tagged Ibaka’s roll. That opened a window for George to hit Batum in the corner. Splash. Batum is usually on the court with one of George or Leonard in at all times, and we’ve seen the chemistry developing between George and Batum. Per pbpstats, Batum has played 158 of 202 minutes with George on the court. George’s expertise in setting Batum up has led to Batum possessing an eFG% of 63.2 with George versus a 57.1 clip without.

Moving to assists, Batum’s assists per game have steadily dipped since eclipsing at 5.9 a game in 2016-17 with Charlotte. Last season, he averaged 3.0 APG, not a stark difference to the 2.9 he currently averages. But there’s context to that; Batum didn’t play alongside stars like George and Leonard in Charlotte. Assists per game don’t always tell the complete story, either. Per nba.com tracking data, Batum is averaging 4.4 potential assists per game, fourth-most on the team. The typical ball-handling triumvirate of George, Leonard and Lou Williams spearhead that category.Still, Batum’s a ball-moving forward, a contrast to Morris, who often counters that trait. Per Cleaning the Glass, Batum’s usage rate of 11.3% ranks in the 9th percentile among fellow forwards. However, his assist-to-usage ratio is at a beaming 1:16, good for the 98th percentile. Batum’s excelled in this category dating back to his Portland days, but it’s a positive sign for a Clippers team hoping to secure a balanced attack with a variety of players. Batum’s offense has been superbly effective. The eye test definitely supports his per-100-possession offensive rating of 139 and a defensive rating of 113, a +26 differential, which would be a career-high if it sustains. Not only that, but his points per shot attempt mark of 135.6 ranks in the 91st percentile, a perceptible distinction from being in the 10th percentile a season ago, per Cleaning the Glass. While the Clippers wait for Morris to fully heal, Batum, even when he inevitably comes off the bench, is flying under the radar as one of the offseason’s best transactions by any team this season.

213Hoops is an independently owned and operated L.A. Clippers blog by Clippers fans, for Clippers fans. If you enjoy our content, please consider subscribing to our Patreon. Subscriptions start at $1 a month and support from readers like you goes a long way towards helping us keep 213Hoops sustainable, growing, and thriving.

Nicolas Batum’s offense has been a welcome addition
Sanjesh Singh

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Are the Clippers Working on a Trade? https://213hoops.com/are-the-clippers-working-on-a-trade/ https://213hoops.com/are-the-clippers-working-on-a-trade/#comments Tue, 24 Nov 2020 12:42:08 +0000 https://213hoops.com/?p=2749 213hoops.com
Are the Clippers Working on a Trade?

After the huge signing of Serge Ibaka, things have been strangely quiet, causing a lot of folks to wonder if the Clippers are working on a trade. There is, of...

Are the Clippers Working on a Trade?
Lucas Hann

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213hoops.com
Are the Clippers Working on a Trade?

After the huge signing of Serge Ibaka, things have been strangely quiet, causing a lot of folks to wonder if the Clippers are working on a trade. There is, of course, no way to really know what LAC’s front office is up to. Tight lips have been the norm for Lawrence Frank’s team in recent years, dating at least as far back as the Blake Griffin trade.

So, it probably wasn’t surprising that the few leaks we heard leading up to free agency, having to do with players like Rajon Rondo, Kris Dunn, and a supposed mutual interest with Montrezl Harrell, turned into nothing. This is pure speculation, but I have a feeling that these leaks came from outside the organization, either from the agents of these players trying to drum up interest or rival executives’ speculation (think “league sources expect the Clippers to pursue…”). Patrick Patterson’s new deal was so clearly an agent leak that the actual tweet reporting the contract credited its negotiator by name. With Morris and Ibaka, we’re left to guess, but it’s telling that the Clippers were never actually linked to Serge by major reporters until just a couple of hours before the signing–right around when Ibaka would have presumably been informing other teams that they were out of the running.

Just because we aren’t getting hourly updates from ESPN about what the Clippers are working on doesn’t mean they aren’t working on anything (as if any NBA front office is just sitting around during free agency). It’s been proven time and again, so it’s probably worth getting used to.

The fun, then, is trying to figure out what they might be up to while we wait for news to trickle out. Based on what we know, I have to admit: it seems really possible that the Clippers are working on a trade. The facts of the team’s situation are that they are hard capped by the Ibaka signing, and have about $5.2M left beneath the hard cap and three open roster spots, two of which must be filled, to play with. The Clippers technically have a few ways to add players for slightly more than the veteran’s minimum–which carries a cap hit of $1.6M–but any such move would likely leave them unable to fill their final roster spot. An additional complication is that the more of their wiggle room they use now, the harder it will be to make any mid-season roster changes.

For example, if the Clippers wanted to use their bi-annual exception–worth $3.6M–on a free agent, they’d only have enough money left for one minimum-salary deal, forcing them to leave their 15th roster spot open without enough money to even sign a 10-day contract during the year. You can always free up some cash during the season if you need to–dumping a one-year minimum deal normally just costs cash, and at most a protected second-round pick, and that trade would take the entire $1.6M off of LAC’s books, leaving them with space under the hard cap to sign two rest-of-season deals. The bigger hassle is that you have to get rid of one of your players to do that, find a trade partner, and both find worthy free agents mid-season and incorporate them into your team on the fly.

Regardless of what the Clippers end up doing at the end of their bench to navigate the hard cap, their next steps seem pretty straightforward: sign 2-3 more players to cheap deals to round out the bench and get ready for training camp, which opens next week. Sure, they needed to prioritize Serge Ibaka, not only because he was the best free agent the team targeted but because his decision impacted their positional needs and available resources. Still, it’s been over 48 hours since Ibaka was signed, and the Clippers haven’t made another move despite sitting on multiple open roster spots and watching a number of the better veteran’s minimum free agents come off the board. Brad Wanamaker, Torrey Craig, and Solomon Hill would have all been really strong depth additions for LAC, but all have signed elsewhere for the minimum.

So, what are the Clippers doing? They obviously need to add at least a couple more players this week–league rules mandate it. If it was going to be as simple as signing two or three vet’s min deals and heading into camp, you’d assume that they wouldn’t have been on the sidelines for the last couple of days as targets went off the board. Now, knowing this front office, it’s possible that deals with a couple of the remaining targets are already agreed to and just haven’t been leaked. It’s also fully possible that they’re waiting for the Gordon Hayward sign-and-trade talks between Boston and Charlotte to find their likely conclusion: with the Hornets waiving veteran wing Nicolas Batum and him finding his way to a contender on a minimum-salary deal. But Batum is just one player; the Clippers need to add at least two. And while the front office might not leak deals to reporters, it’s a lot harder to to keep agents from celebrating or players from announcing their moves on social media–and once a deal’s been agreed to, why would you care?

It almost seems like they have to be working on something else at this point. I don’t know that they are, but it’s the explanation that makes the most sense considering the team’s inactivity in recent days. If it’s a trade, the options are seemingly narrow. Mfiondu Kabengele and Terance Mann have small salaries and low value and wouldn’t make sense as the centerpieces of any deal. The non-guaranteed salaries of Justin Patton and Joakim Noah have very little trade utility due to the Clippers’ hard cap situation–at best, they could be considered redundant to LAC’s collection of small traded player exceptions. Luke Kennard’s $5.3M salary can’t be combined with any other Clipper contracts to bring back a bigger deal in a trade. And let’s assume, at least, that the maximum salary deals for Paul George and Kawhi Leonard aren’t on the table–no matter how much trade machine porn can be produced around a three-team deal featuring George, Ben Simmons, and James Harden.

That leaves Patrick Beverley (13.3M), Lou Williams (8M), and Ivica Zubac (7M). Even then, I’m skeptical. While there’s been a lot of talk about the Clippers pursuing an upgrade over Beverley at starting point guard, last summer’s Paul George trade left them without the assets to do so–as was clearly evidenced by the trade packages received for Chris Paul, Jrue Holiday, and Ricky Rubio this off-season. At this stage, the guards whose names pop up in rumors, like Terry Rozier and Spencer Dinwiddie, are simply not dependable enough to justify losing Beverley for them. Zubac is a 23-year-old starter coming off of a strong playoffs with multiple years of a team-friendly deal ahead of him–his inclusion in deals is possible, as center production can be replaced more easily than other positions, but he’s not going to be thrown into a deal just to make the math work. I think his value to LAC is a lot higher than his value around the league, so I’m unconvinced that his inclusion anywhere makes sense.

That leaves Williams. While he’s been great for the Clippers since arriving in the Chris Paul trade three years ago, and certainly won me over as one of my favorite players, there are a number of concerning questions lingering around his status with the team–he’s 34 years old, his contract is expiring, he’s a poor defender, there’s a long track record of drop-offs in performance in the playoffs, he fills the backup point guard spot without being a “real” lead guard who can fill in for Patrick Beverley at times, and newcomer Luke Kennard lessens the team’s reliance on his creation off the bench. Many, including myself, felt like the draft-night acquisition of Kennard might have been a tipping point in the team’s willingness to move on from Williams via trade.

Due to the Clippers’ hard cap situation, the options for such a deal are limited, as they really can’t add much more than Williams’ $8M back and still fill out their roster. In order to incentivize teams to take Lou (he’s certainly still good and highly useful, but not every team wants a 34-year-old backup guard at this stage in the off-season), the Clippers would have to use some of their new future 2nd round picks (they got 4 in the Kennard trade). Oklahoma City’s George Hill would make for a good backup point guard behind Beverley, and his $9.6M deal would cost the Clippers a little bit of the hard cap but still be workable. If the Memphis Grizzlies want to create a little cap flexibility for next summer and make a short-term upgrade at 3rd guard, Tyus Jones could be available. He’s a really steady backup PG and his $8M deal wouldn’t hurt LAC’s finances. Depending on what happens with the Houston Rockets and James Harden, veteran forward P.J. Tucker would be an amazing addition for LAC at $8M. Short of Tucker, former Clipper Al-Farouq Aminu makes $9.6M in Orlando and the Magic desperately need playmaking guards. He’d make sense as a defensive-minded backup 3/4.

Those deals still don’t fully satisfy the suspicion of what might be going on. Jones and Aminu probably make the Clippers worse–let’s not forget that Lou Williams is still a very good basketball player, and downgrading for the sake of a shake-up isn’t a good idea. Hill is likely a lateral move, but a better fit. Tucker would make a bigger playoff impact with his defense, but it’s unclear where LAC would find a backup point guard in this scenario as the free agent pool has all but dried up. Plus, even if one of those options is what the Clippers are really working on, what are they waiting for? Lou and a pair of 2nds for Hill is a straightforward trade, and Sam Presti can only haggle about whether Detroit’s 2024 or 2025 2nd is more valuable for so long. Plus, the hole at backup small forward remains unaffected if Lou is swapped for a more traditional backup point guard. Even if they got Tucker or Aminu, they’d need another wing on the roster.

I could speculate endlessly, but I’ll stop at one more suggestion: what if the Clippers aren’t focused on what they’re trading Lou Williams for, so much as what they can do with the extra hard cap wiggle room created by his departure. LAC has a number of ways to improve the roster with above-minimum deals, including utilizing the bi-annual exception, absorbing players with their TPEs, and using non-guaranteed contracts for salary matching in trades. Let’s say the Sacramento Kings match the Atlanta Hawks’ offer sheet for Bogdan Bogdanovic, leaving the Hawks with cap room and in search of a scoring guard, but with nobody who fits the bill left on the free agent market. Could the Clippers trade Lou into Atlanta’s cap space, and bring back sharpshooter Kevin Huerter, who has seemingly been left behind in the Hawks’ retooling? Even short of Huerter, Atlanta or a number of others teams might be willing to take on Lou’s deal and even send back some type of sweetener, perhaps a 2nd round pick or two.

The trick then would be lining up a sequence of deals to utilize the additional flexibility well enough that the team got better. What is the most that LAC can do with the $3.6M BAE once the flexibility is opened up to use it? If I’m being honest, I’m not seeing any veteran free agents on the market who feel like more than minimum guys, unless the BAE helps you in a bidding war with other playoff teams for one of the remaining wings, like Batum, Glenn Robinson III, or Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. The BAE could also be used to give a restricted free agent an above-minimum offer sheet to lure a young player, like Nets point guard Chris Chiozza or Wolves point guard Jordan McLaughlin. Both would likely be matched and retained on a minimum offer, but I think both teams would balk at the luxury tax implications of $3.6M. What is the most LAC can do with their TPEs once the flexibility is opened up to use it? Maybe trade a 2nd round pick to Indiana for T.J. McConnell’s $3.5M expiring?

Let’s say you could line up a series of transactions that would effectively cost you Lou Williams, and use the flexibility created to add a pair of players like T.J. McConnell and Glenn Robinson III. Is that enough? Did the Clippers get better in that transaction? I’ll be honest, my money’s on no. But there are so many little variables here that maybe the Clippers’ front office could scour the corners of the league to find the best possible acquisitions using their trade exceptions and future 2nd round picks and come up with a net roster change that improved the team.

For now, we’ll have to live with not knowing what they’re doing.

Are the Clippers Working on a Trade?
Lucas Hann

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Lou Williams Trade Rumor: Mavericks Could Offer Pick 18 https://213hoops.com/lou-williams-trade-rumor-mavericks-could-offer-pick-18/ https://213hoops.com/lou-williams-trade-rumor-mavericks-could-offer-pick-18/#comments Tue, 17 Nov 2020 11:46:03 +0000 https://213hoops.com/?p=2657 213hoops.com
Lou Williams Trade Rumor: Mavericks Could Offer Pick 18

According to ESPN’s Jonathan Givony, Lou Williams is involved in a draft night trade rumor that would see the Dallas Mavericks moving the 18th overall pick for the veteran guard....

Lou Williams Trade Rumor: Mavericks Could Offer Pick 18
Lucas Hann

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213hoops.com
Lou Williams Trade Rumor: Mavericks Could Offer Pick 18

According to ESPN’s Jonathan Givony, Lou Williams is involved in a draft night trade rumor that would see the Dallas Mavericks moving the 18th overall pick for the veteran guard.

Givony wrote that the Mavericks are in talks with several teams for the 18th pick, with Williams as one prominent potential target:

However, several teams are exploring making a trade with the Mavs involving this pick, with the Clippers and Lou Williams being a popular choice around the league as a potential trade partner.

Such a deal would thrust the Clippers into the middle of the first round of Wednesday’s draft. Despite having just the 57th pick, the Clippers are a likely candidate to purchase a pick earlier in the second round and have worked out a number of point guard prospects who are more likely to go in the 30s than 50s, such as Malachi Flynn, Payton Pritchard, and Tyrell Terry, according to the LA Times’ Andrew Greif.

The 18th pick, however, would open the door to a prospect ranked even higher, such as R.J. Hampton (mocked at 19 by The Athletic, 15 by ESPN), Aleksej Pokusevski (16/18), Tyrese Maxey (18/14), Demond Bane (20/24), and Cole Anthony (24/21), among others. Flynn (34/22) and Terry (21/28) have both been mocked as high as the early 20s, so if the Clippers loved either prospect this deal would likely guarantee their ability to select him.

However, the Clippers could also look to not use the pick themselves at all. It’s been well-covered that LA could stand to add a veteran distributor at the point guard position, but lack assets to make a deal work. Just look at the packages that Chris Paul and Jrue Holiday were traded for yesterday–LAC just can’t win those bidding wars. However, that 18th overall pick could be the key to Lawrence Frank making a deal for a guard like Ricky Rubio. With the Mavericks coincidentally rumored to have interest in newly-acquired Thunder forward Kelly Oubre.

A three-team trade could be possible, sending Williams and Oubre to Dallas, Rubio to Los Angeles, and salary filler and assets (headlined by this 18th overall pick) to Oklahoma City. To make the finances work, the Clippers would have to send Rodney McGruder to Oklahoma City and contribute to the asset pool, likely using a future 2nd round pick or sophomore big man Mfiondu Kabengele. The Mavericks would have to send out a package that would probably begin with Delon Wright and Justin Jackson, requiring just one more small contract to complete the deal–Boban Marjanovic, Willie Cauley-Stein, and Jalen Brunson would all be options. Given that Dallas is acquiring Williams as well as Oubre, it’s possible that they’d send a future protected 1st to the Thunder as well.

Lou Williams Trade Rumor: Mavericks Could Offer Pick 18
Lucas Hann

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Clippers 2020 Exit Interview: Lou Williams https://213hoops.com/clippers-2020-exit-interview-lou-williams/ https://213hoops.com/clippers-2020-exit-interview-lou-williams/#comments Tue, 13 Oct 2020 09:12:33 +0000 https://213hoops.com/?p=2475 213hoops.com
Clippers 2020 Exit Interview: Lou Williams

Now that the Clippers’ 2020 season has reached its disappointing end, 213Hoops will work through the roster player-by-player for our “Exit Interview” series. Today’s exit interview features sixth man Lou...

Clippers 2020 Exit Interview: Lou Williams
Lucas Hann

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213hoops.com
Clippers 2020 Exit Interview: Lou Williams

Now that the Clippers’ 2020 season has reached its disappointing end, 213Hoops will work through the roster player-by-player for our “Exit Interview” series. Today’s exit interview features sixth man Lou Williams.

Basic Information

Height: 6’1″
Weight: 175 lbs
Position: Guard
Age: 33 (turns 34 in two weeks)
Years in NBA: 15

Key Stats: In 65 appearances for the Clippers, played 28.7 minutes per game and averaged 18.2 points, 5.6 assists, 3.1 rebounds, and 2.8 turnovers while shooting 41.8% from the field and 35.8% from deep.

In the playoffs, played 26. minutes per game in the Clippers’ 13 games, averaging 12.8 points, 4.2 assists, and 3.2 rebounds while shooting 42.5% from the field and 23.5% from deep.

Contract Status: Lou has an expiring contract worth $8,000,000. The Clippers would have his bird rights to re-sign him in free agency next summer.

Expectations

It’s no secret what Williams is capable of: he’s a professional scorer. What is maybe a better-kept secret is his ability to create for others. Far from simply a second-unit chucker, Williams is a quality pick-and-roll passer who can not only hit the screener with a pocket pass but also torn the corner to attack downhill and find teammates when the help comes. It’s no mistake that this was his third straight season leading the team in assists–though perhaps he shouldn’t be the best distributor on a team with championship aspirations.

Defensively, Williams is a net negative, but this Clippers squad had the luxury of sufficient star power and depth where they didn’t need Williams on the floor despite his offensive firepower. For stretches against 2nd units, he’s fine, and the Clippers have enough elite defenders to hide him in a lot of situations. Closing games, Williams provides a huge boost to the team’s offense but the team also had the defensive-minded Patrick Beverley and the sharp-shooting Landry Shamet for situational use at guard–a wealth of options for Doc Rivers.

Reality

Lou has been remarkably consistent over his three years as a Clipper, and 2020 was no different. His scoring production dipped slightly, but understandably as the arrival of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard caused his usage rate to decrease notably. Williams also shot more spot up threes this year than last, hitting a stellar 40.9%. He was the Clippers’ best distributor all season and brought them an undeniable sharpness in facilitation that was lacking when he was off the floor.

In the playoffs, Lou struggled with the one thing he’s best at: scoring. Against the Denver Nuggets, Williams averaged just 10 points per game while shooting a horrendous 35.4% from the field and just 14.8% from deep. It’s hard to assess exactly why that happened. Lou–and players of his archetype–tend to struggle in the playoffs against better, lengthier defenses, but Lou managed to get off a lot of good looks against the Nuggets. In the regular season, he shot 42% on wide-open threes, getting 1.3 attempts per game. In 7 games against Denver, he was 0-6. I mentioned above that Lou shot 40.9% on catch-and-shoot threes in the regular season; against Denver, he hit 2-14 for 14%. As the series wore on, he even missed layups. “Lou’s efficiency drops off in the playoffs” doesn’t explain what we saw this year, and there should be hope that whatever happened–some combination of a cold stretch, a small sample size, and bubble weirdness–was flukey.

Even with Lou’s individual struggles, it’s clear that his presence as an offensive threat and facilitator still boosted the team’s offense. The Clippers had an offensive rating of 114.5 with Williams on the floor against Denver, compared to a putrid 94.2 when he sat. It’s remarkable when you consider that Williams spent the majority of his minutes with Montrezl Harrell, possibly the worst player in the playoffs this year. Against Denver, the team had an offensive rating of 102.3 and a defensive rating of 108.6 when Harrell and Williams played together, but a dominant 130.3 offensive rating and 92.7 defensive rating when Williams was on the court while Harrell sat. Lou isn’t solely responsible for that boost–those minutes largely came alongside the Clippers’ starters–but the team’s main combinations performed best with Williams at guard even as he failed to hit shots.

The bigger problem with Williams this year was his fit with the Clippers’ other guards. Just as I discussed in the case of Patrick Beverley, the Clippers’ guards are individually good players who don’t quite combine to bring the right combinations of two-way role player production to support their stars. Williams was the team’s second point guard, but with Beverley prone to injuries and foul trouble, Lou isn’t a good fit in the starting lineup where his defensive weaknesses are more exposed and he can’t bring his scoring punch off the bench. Finding a backup point guard who is good enough to fill in as a starter for Pat and has the size and defensive ability to work next to the undersized Lou on the second unit is a tall task–and even if you found that guy, it would be even harder for that lineup to be successful defensively with Landry Shamet bumped over to small forward. Plus, with George and Leonard starting at shooting guard and small forward, would there be enough minutes to keep Beverley, Williams, Shamet, and a quality backup point guard satisfied?

Future with Clippers

Lou has an expiring deal worth $8M for next season, and he’s turning 34 in a couple of weeks. While nobody plays forever, Lou certainly hasn’t showed any signs of slowing down and has played some of his best basketball in his 30s as a Clipper. It’s perfectly reasonable to expect him to play at a high level for at least 2-3 more years.

But will that be as a Clipper? Williams has said that he wants to finish his career here, and there’s a chance he wouldn’t play for another team if LA traded him–he has already admitted that when Houston dealt him to the Clippers in 2017, he nearly retired instead of starting a new chapter. A quality player, a fan favorite, and a locker room leader, Williams would be sorely missed if the Clippers dealt him.

As I said above, though, upgrading the Clippers’ guard rotation is going to be tricky. The fit of the current trio leaves some of the team’s weaknesses exposed, but each is a quality individual player and finding upgrades would be hard. Of the three, Williams might make the most sense to trade. Beverley’s hefty two-year contract likely doesn’t have much return value, and his departure would leave the Clippers without a point guard. Shamet, on the other hand, is just 23 years old and has two cheap years left on his rookie deal before entering restricted free agency. The Clippers might be willing to part with their best prospect if they swing for a big talent upgrade, but not maximizing his value would be a mistake.

Williams’ $8M expiring for a valuable bench scorer would likely net the Clippers something positive in return–perhaps a late first-round pick or a different role player. The question, though, is if a deal exists that would actually make the Clippers better. Otherwise, Lou Williams is set to be a big contributor to the Clippers again next year, even if the team doesn’t find an answer to their point guard concerns.

213Hoops is an independently owned and operated L.A. Clippers blog by Clippers fans, for Clippers fans. If you enjoy our content, please consider subscribing to our Patreon. Subscriptions start at $1 a month and support from readers like you goes a long way towards helping us keep 213Hoops sustainable, growing, and thriving.

Clippers 2020 Exit Interview: Lou Williams
Lucas Hann

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The Los Angeles Clippers Can Only Blame Themselves https://213hoops.com/the-los-angeles-clippers-can-only-blame-themselves/ https://213hoops.com/the-los-angeles-clippers-can-only-blame-themselves/#comments Wed, 16 Sep 2020 16:14:56 +0000 https://213hoops.com/?p=2359 213hoops.com
The Los Angeles Clippers Can Only Blame Themselves

You’ve probably seen the meme where Spider-Man points at himself. If I could pick one picture to encapsulate where the Clippers currently stand, that’s my choice. Following a brutal game...

The Los Angeles Clippers Can Only Blame Themselves
Sanjesh Singh

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The Los Angeles Clippers Can Only Blame Themselves

You’ve probably seen the meme where Spider-Man points at himself. If I could pick one picture to encapsulate where the Clippers currently stand, that’s my choice. Following a brutal game seven loss to the Denver Nuggets, the Los Angeles Clippers are in a position where they can only blame themselves.

But, first and foremost, I want to acknowledge Michael Malone and the rest of the Denver Nuggets players and coaching staff. Coming back from a 3-1 deficit twice in the same postseason is a feat accomplished by no one in NBA history. All credit goes to Denver, but we have to remember that Denver can’t achieve this if L.A. had closed them out earlier in the series.

Game 5

After the Clippers defeated the Nuggets 96-85 in game four, both teams began the first quarter of game five pretty tight. In the second quarter, the Clippers started to pull away. Lou Williams made baskets inside the arc and Landry Shamet and JaMychal Green hit some key triples off the bench to provide the starters with critical help.

An and-1 from Marcus Morris Sr. saw the lead extend to 56-40, which would be the largest lead held by the Clippers. L.A. went into the second half with a twelve-point cushion, but the Nuggets made the necessary adjustments to make a run. Denver didn’t take over right away, but following crucial baskets from Paul Millsap, who arguably turned in his best game of the bubble, Denver set themselves up to make an all-or-nothing run in the fourth.

Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray needed to step up on the scoring end, and needless to say, they rose to the occasion. The one-two game between Jokic and Murray clicked at the right time, and Denver flipped the score to take a six-point lead with five minutes remaining. Kawhi Leonard hit some big threes and earned trips to the free-throw line to slow the game down, but the game fell in the hands of Michael Porter Jr., who drilled the biggest shot of the game. Denver outscored L.A. 38-25 in the final 12 minutes.

The Clippers sat on a 16-point lead but watched it slowly evaporate as Denver outplayed them on both ends of the game to force game six.

Game 6

This game gave the Clippers a second chance of closing the series out, and the Clippers started the first half strong yet again. A dominant 16-2 stretch to end the second quarter was exactly what the doctor ordered, but the Clippers were too stubborn to take the medication. Despite Paul George and Leonard taking over the end of the second and setting themselves up to finish Denver off, they allowed Denver to take advantage of their poor tactics on both ends of the court.

After scoring 34 points in the first quarter, the Clippers managed just 35 points in the entire second half. Sixteen of those came in the third quarter when Denver made their huge run to trail by just two to enter the fourth. George took responsibility for 10 of those points, but he didn’t receive any help and Denver hunted the Montrezl Harrell and Lou Williams mismatches to burn the Clippers on defense.

A similar theme from game five appears in this one: if you fail to keep your foot on the pedal, you’ll be passed up. You can’t offer a team like Denver the chance to see light, otherwise, they’ll climb out of the dark hole and bury you instead. Once Denver regained momentum, they grasped it with both hands and rode it to victory.

George and Leonard couldn’t carry the load themselves, whereas Jokic and Murray, though doing their jobs efficiently, were supported by Monte Morris, Gary Harris, and others who stepped up because of the momentum switch. The Clippers ended up being the team who lost by double-digits and did the one thing they couldn’t afford to do: go to game seven.

The uncertainty of a game with colossal implications is one the Clippers couldn’t afford to participate in, yet their own mishaps led them tumbling into a game where momentum didn’t favor them.

Game 7

Just like the last two games, both teams kept the score tight, except Denver didn’t allow L.A. to go on a run to end the first half. The Clippers maintained the edge, but the storyline of blowing a significant lead wouldn’t materialize on post-game headlines.

However, the Clippers’ inability to score in the second half did. L.A. only managed 33 points in the second half of a win-or-go-home game. Whichever way you put it, that’s inexcusable. Fifteen of those came in the fourth quarter, where the Clippers showed zero fight; they were ready to go home. It was a relatively low-scoring quarter, but Murray and Jokic opened the floodgates just enough to drown their desiccated opponents.

Obviously, it didn’t do the Clippers any favors that their two stars shot a combined 10-38 from the floor. That’s 26% in a semifinal closeout game; there’s no justifying that type of performance. The two notably scored zero points in the fourth quarter. It’s also why L.A. couldn’t let game seven occur. You never know if the worst-case scenario for your team would happen in the biggest game of the season, but you don’t have to ponder those thoughts if you closed out responsibly.

And if Harrell is your leading scorer after 48 minutes, something went drastically wrong. Denver didn’t completely suffocate L.A. on defense either, because L.A. had open looks. But, you saw George clanking an open corner three off the side of the backboard, which made up one of his nine missed triples from the game. Again, you need to avoid game seven if you can prevent it.

Other Factors

In-game decisions made by Doc Rivers played a massive role in L.A’s downfall as well. Giving Harrell numerous minutes when Ivica Zubac and Green were much better players/matchups definitely cost L.A. points. Harrell’s inability to be a defender at any decent level saw Jokic and company torch Harrell. This stat certainly supports the eye test:

Patrick Beverley fouling out early in game six played a large part, too, as L.A. lost his versatility on both ends and needed to play Williams more often. Beverley quietly turned in arguably the best performance from a Clipper in game seven, but it’s going to be swept under the rug now due to the loss.

Landry Shamet quietly disappeared and couldn’t help offensively either. Shamet’s best asset couldn’t be weaponized efficiently against Denver, as he shot 4-18 (22%) from deep in the series. He played limited minutes in game seven due to injury, but it’s hard to imagine him making a positive impact anyway.

Mike Malone, to put simply, out-coached his counterpart. When Harrell and Williams shared the floor, Denver attacked L.A. with pick-and-rolls, resulting in open looks. Because Lou Williams struggled often and Beverley dealt with foul trouble, Reggie Jackson saw minutes too, which certainly didn’t help the defense any. If Leonard and George couldn’t score, Rivers didn’t have a reliable third option, yet he kept insisting that Harrell and Williams would solve those issues. It might’ve worked in the regular season, but the bench duo was unsurprisingly exposed when it mattered most.

The Clippers are now 0-8 all-time when they’re about to clinch a conference finals berth, fittingly ranking them first in that category, per Elias Sports. Just like their blown 3-1 lead in 2015, the blame falls on the entire Los Angeles Clippers organization. With the expectations coming into the season, the lasting effects of this loss could be incalculable.

213Hoops is an independently owned and operated L.A. Clippers blog by Clippers fans, for Clippers fans. If you enjoy our content, please consider subscribing to our Patreon. Subscriptions start at $1 a month and support from readers like you goes a long way towards helping us keep 213Hoops sustainable, growing, and thriving.

The Los Angeles Clippers Can Only Blame Themselves
Sanjesh Singh

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Playoff Clippers: The Anatomy of a Blown Lead https://213hoops.com/playoff-clippers-the-anatomy-of-a-blown-lead/ https://213hoops.com/playoff-clippers-the-anatomy-of-a-blown-lead/#comments Sat, 12 Sep 2020 20:00:00 +0000 https://213hoops.com/?p=2323 213hoops.com
Playoff Clippers: The Anatomy of a Blown Lead

When it comes to big playoff games, Clippers fans are all too familiar with the worst kind of pain: a blown lead. Last night, LA were once again caught reeling...

Playoff Clippers: The Anatomy of a Blown Lead
Lucas Hann

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Playoff Clippers: The Anatomy of a Blown Lead

When it comes to big playoff games, Clippers fans are all too familiar with the worst kind of pain: a blown lead. Last night, LA were once again caught reeling in a game that would have sent them to their first-ever Western Conference Finals, blowing a big lead and losing in heartbreaking fashion to the Denver Nuggets. Their largest lead in the game was 16 points, 56-40 near the end of the 2nd, but they also led by 13, 80-67, with 1:25 left in the third quarter. By 5:48 to play, Denver had taken a 6-point lead at 94-88–a 19-point swing resulting from a 27-8 run that spanned nearly 8 minutes of game time.

Through the grief, Clippers fans are also asking: why does this always happen to us? The team, of course, infamously blew some notable playoff leads during the Lob City era: a 13-point lead with 4 minutes left in game 5 of their 2014 2nd round series vs OKC and a 19-point second half lead against the Houston Rockets in game 6 of that 2015 2nd round series. But they also seem to be particularly prone to letting double-digit advantages slip away in this postseason. Let’s take a look at each game so far:

  • DAL G1: Clips take an early 16-point lead, but fall behind by as much as 14–a 30-point swing–before going on to win.
  • DAL G2: Clips lose wire-to-wire.
  • DAL G3: The Clippers separate by as much as 18 points in the fourth and hold off a late Mavs run that cuts the final deficit to 8.
  • DAL G4: LAC leads by as much as 21 in the first half before blowing the lead and falling behind by as much as 12. They came back to force OT, losing at the buzzer.
  • DAL G5: Clips separate early and the game never gets within double digits for the last three quarters.
  • DAL G6: Clippers separate in the third quarter, going up by as much as 23 halfway through the third and holding on to win despite the Mavs cutting the lead to just 6 at the 9:00 mark in the fourth quarter.
  • DEN G1: LAC pulls away in the 2nd and the fatigued Nuggets have no energy for a comeback.
  • DEN G2: The Nuggets get their lead to 20 in 2nd quarter and again in the 3rd, and while LAC cuts the lead to 5 in the 4th they ultimately lose.
  • DEN G3: Denver builds a couple smaller leads–12 points in the second quarter, 10 in the 3rd, 7 in the 4th–before LAC wins it late.
  • DEN G4: The Clippers jump out to a big early lead, and despite the Nuggets tying the game in the third, LA goes on a run to build an even bigger 19-point lead and win the game.
  • DEN G5: As mentioned above, LAC’s 13-point second half lead is undone by a 27-8 run in the late 3rd and early 4th quarters.

Can we learn anything from looking at it that way? The first takeaway might be that most first-half leads evaporate at some point over the course of a game. Basketball is a game of runs, and every team in the playoffs is both a good team and playing hard, so you always have to assume your opponent has a punch left to throw. This isn’t the regular season, where you play a lot of teams that are bad and/or willing to pack it in when they go down double digits.

The Clippers just happen to normally be the team that’s ahead this postseason, because, well, they’re better than the two teams they’ve played so far. So the 10-point first quarter leads that dissipate as a hot shooting start regresses to the mean are probably a little more likely to happen to the Clips.

But in the games they’ve gone down, they’ve benefitted from blown leads too. While they blew a 21-point first-half lead in game 4 against the Mavericks, they also came back from down 12 in the second half to force OT. In games 2 and 3 against the Nuggets, the Clippers were thoroughly outplayed, but they almost stole game 2 by cutting Denver’s 20-point lead to 5 and did steal game 3 when facing a smaller deficit.

In part, this whole saga is a bit of the famous fan complaint that “someone random from the opposing bench always kills US.” Most NBA teams play 5 bench guys on a given night, and given the nature of averages, you’re gonna have a couple guys who aren’t household names scoring above their averages most nights. It doesn’t really afflict any one team more than another, and in the situations where it does, the cause isn’t bad luck–it’s a systemic flaw with the team, like poor depth and/or weak defenders at a certain position.

I don’t have the dataset nor the data analysis skills to prove it, but I suspect that a huge part of the frustration that comes from blowing double-digit leads is universal–Clippers fans just don’t watch the other 29 teams nightly to see how normal it is. Just anecdotally, in Friday’s other game, the Boston Celtics saw a 12-point first quarter lead turn into a 7-point second quarter deficit, and then led 88-78 before a Raptors flurry made the score 89-87. Basketball is a game of runs.

But while conceding runs and blowing leads from time to time is inevitable and unavoidable, there are definitely ways that teams can find themselves more or less likely to have stretches where they struggle. The right combination of personnel decisions and rotation strategies and mitigate the risk of letting up big runs, like Doc Rivers’ choice to keep either Paul George or Kawhi Leonard on the floor with the second unit at all times during the playoffs. As much as LA’s 2nd unit has struggled through 11 playoff games, I have little doubt that Doc’s decision to stagger his stars has helped mitigate those struggles.

Similarly, the choice (for much of the playoffs) to play 4-bench lineups around one of those stars exacerbated issues. For example, the bench quartet of Reggie Jackson, Lou Williams, JaMychal Green, and Montrezl Harrell have lost their 46 playoff minutes by 10 points despite almost always having one of George or Leonard on the floor. Even more egregious, the four-man unit of Jackson, Williams, Landry Shamet, and Harrell have lost their 10 playoff minutes together by 23 points.

But these lineups don’t play very much. Ten minutes over 11 games is essentially a meaningless sample size–even 46 minutes is hard to take a ton of stock in, though in this case it backs up common sense and the eye test.

The systemic concession of runs comes when the right combination of match-ups occur against high-usage weak lineups. Take, for example, the Lou Williams – Montrezl Harrell pairing. The league’s most iconic bench duo, Williams and Harrell carried the Clippers’ regular-season offense, allowing them to finish in the 2-seed despite extended absences and rest for both of their stars. But in the playoffs, they’re getting picked apart: the pace is slower, they get fewer minutes and touches, the opposing defenses are better and playing harder, and the opposing offenses are better and more precisely targeting them.

In 155 minutes together this post-season, the Clippers have a -11.2 net rating. That’s a substantial number of minutes: on average, nearly one-third of each playoff game has seen those two share the floor, and the Clippers have lost big in those minutes. If you like raw data, the team has lost those 155 minutes by 41 points. The numbers are consistent between LA’s two series, with the two posting a -11.5 net rating in 85 minutes together in this series alone.

So, the Clippers have a Williams/Harrell problem. It makes sense, both for the reasons I outlined above about how their roles and the playoff environment change the game, but also just based on eye test: Lou is struggling with his shot, making just 22% from deep in this playoff run, and Trez is struggling with everything, with the data showing him consistently making a significant negative impact on the team’s offense, defense, and rebounding. But even with that problem being a constant, the Nuggets can do different things to exacerbate it–or fail to take advantage.

For example, one of the reasons the Clippers haven’t been totally forced to adjust is Torrey Craig. A solid but unspectacular defender and non-factor offensively, Craig allows the Clippers to hide Williams defensively. Remember how the Clippers have a -11.5 net rating in Lou/Trez minutes this series? Their net rating is +17 when Torrey Craig is on the floor and -28.2 when he’s off. I think the Clippers need to find more minutes for Lou Williams than Mike Malone will play Craig, but if I were Doc Rivers, I’d make sure that Lou was in the game every second that Torrey is, in addition to other time.

It’s also a matter of who is going to exploit the glaring weakness that is Montrezl Harrell’s defense. When Denver’s backup center, Mason Plumlee, is in the game, the Clippers are fine–in fact, even against lineups featuring both Williams and Harrell, Denver lineups featuring Plumlee have mustered an offensive rating of just 89.6 (to be fair to Mason, most of those minutes include Craig’s presence for the Nuggets).

Nikola Jokic is Denver’s best player and best passer, the focal point of their offense and their best creator. He’s the guy who makes everything happen, and it shows: the Nuggets have a 107.7 ORTG with Jokic on the floor in this series and a 87.7 ORTG with him off of it. To put it bluntly, the Clippers don’t need to worry a lot about their defensive lineups for the 8 or so non-Jokic minutes, because the Nuggets aren’t going to score a lot of points in those minutes.

But when Jokic is on, he’ll shred a lineup that throws a poor (and often lazy) defender at him in Harrell, especially if that lineup features another poor defender for Nikola to pick on with his passing. In 28 minutes this series where Lou and Trez have both been on the floor vs Jokic, the Clippers have had a dreadful DRTG of 114.9, conceding 77 points in those 28 minutes and losing them by 18 points.

That’s an absolutely brutal combination of data, reasoning, and eye test that seems sure to produce runs for the Nuggets. Sure enough, when Harrell entered the game for Zubac with 1:24 to play in the third quarter, the Clippers held the aforementioned 13-point lead, 80-67. Jokic was in the game, and more than that, Mike Malone immediately subbed Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. on as well–he saw an opportunity to exploit a poor defensive lineup and cut into LA’s lead. A 13-point lead became 7 in 84 seconds.

Before this series began, NBA analyst Matt Moore said on the Locked on Nuggets podcast that if Denver was down 8-10 points at the start of the fourth quarter against the Clippers, they’d always have a chance to get back into the game because those minutes are where Montrezl Harrell plays, and the team is poor defensively. But Nikola Jokic has to rest eventually, so the Clippers were fine to start the fourth quarter, and despite a flurry of Denver points the 7-point lead at the end of the 3rd had shrunk to just 6 when Jokic returned to close the game with 8:44 to play.

From there, Jokic got to face 2:11 of Lou/Trez, and the Nuggets scored 9 points in that span to take the lead. Even after Williams exited, Harrell continued to sink the Clippers-on both ends.

Jokic hit an easy jumper over Trez, and then Harrell responded with a truly astounding play where he drove 1-on-4, got blocked instead of kicking out to Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, who were open in each corner, and then didn’t get back on defense, leaving his team playing 4-on-5 and conceding a Murray three.

When Doc Rivers took a timeout and took Harrell out of the game, the Clippers’ 13-point lead had turned into a 6-point deficit in just 7:36, with 18 points of that 19-point swing coming in just 4 minutes and 20 seconds where Harrell and Jokic shared the floor in the second half.

A massive run takes a lot of things. It never falls on the shoulders of one guy–basketball is a 5-on-5 game, and everything is interconnected. Part of a run is mentality: the Nuggets had to have a moment where they decided to dig deep and fight back to avoid being eliminated, and the Clippers had to have a moment where they not only let up slightly but became rattled at the prospect of losing the game. Part of a run is luck, too! The Nuggets are a good offensive team, and they played well in the fourth quarter and generated good looks, but they also shot 7/9 from three in the fourth. That’s pretty lucky–and hard to argue against when you see Jamal Murray banking in a contested three.

We can never know when a run is going to happen because of the variance of shot-making in the NBA, but there are moments where we can predict when runs are more likely to happen, and Harrell/Jokic minutes–especially if Lou Williams is also on the court and Torrey Craig isn’t–are about as likely as it gets in this series. Malone recognized the combination for a potential Denver run and brought in an offensive lineup against Lou and Trez. Sometimes runs are unavoidable, but Doc Rivers can mitigate their likelihood by recognizing the same trends Malone is and only playing Williams and Harrell together against lineups that feature Plumlee (especially if Craig is also on the floor).

On Friday, the Clippers blew a 13-point lead by conceding an 18-point swing in just 4 minutes and 20 seconds of flawed personnel against the wrong Denver lineup. For as maligned and tortured as LAC’s fanbase is, the Clippers didn’t blow last night’s lead because they are chronically unlucky, or because they aren’t mentally tough, or because the franchise is cursed. They blew the lead, and lost out on clinching a spot in the Western Conference Finals for the first time in franchise history, because of a systemic, predictable, and obvious flaw in Doc Rivers’ rotations.

Playoff Clippers: The Anatomy of a Blown Lead
Lucas Hann

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Ivica Zubac’s Play on Both Ends Helped Clippers Advance https://213hoops.com/ivica-zubacs-play-on-both-ends-helped-clippers-advance/ https://213hoops.com/ivica-zubacs-play-on-both-ends-helped-clippers-advance/#comments Tue, 01 Sep 2020 17:00:43 +0000 https://213hoops.com/?p=2109 213hoops.com
Ivica Zubac’s Play on Both Ends Helped Clippers Advance

The Los Angeles Clippers finished off the Dallas Mavericks after six wildly entertaining games, and though each team suffered roster setbacks, the Clippers received dependable performances from their center Ivica...

Ivica Zubac’s Play on Both Ends Helped Clippers Advance
Sanjesh Singh

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213hoops.com
Ivica Zubac’s Play on Both Ends Helped Clippers Advance

The Los Angeles Clippers finished off the Dallas Mavericks after six wildly entertaining games, and though each team suffered roster setbacks, the Clippers received dependable performances from their center Ivica Zubac on both ends of the court.

Despite being the team’s starting center, Zubac doesn’t usually play starting caliber minutes. Instead, Sixth Man of the Year candidate Montrezl Harrell sees the larger portion of the center minutes. But, as this series marked Harrell’s first time playing basketball in months, he reasonably needed more time to shed off the rust, which led to Zubac featuring more often.

Zubac played 25 minutes a game and averaged 11.2 points, 7.0 rebounds and 0.8 blocks while shooting 65.8% from the field on 6.3 attempts. Looking efficient and composed, Zubac knew his role, stuck to it, and shined for a team that needed him to.

Before we jump into the clip, it’s imperative to acknowledge the net rating Zubac posted this series: +25.6. His offensive rating reached 127.2 and his defensive rating hit 101.6. That’s an absurd differential considering the playoff atmosphere Zubac was playing in.

In this play, Paul George is telling Kawhi Leonard to get to his spot while Trey Burke frantically calls for a switch. Catching Burke off guard, Leonard easily gets into the paint forcing Maxi Kleber to contest. Zubac finds his spot, shows great patience and puts it in with the left hand. A good combination of footwork, patience, awareness, and finishing from the big man.

On shots less than five feet from the rim, Zubac converted on 22-34 attempts, a rate of 64.7%, which is just under his overall field goal percentage.

The combinations I listed above come back into play in this clip as Zubac somehow turns this possession into points at the rim. Without Dwight Powell and Kristaps Porzingis, scoring down low became a simpler task to accomplish. However, Dallas actually defends this play really well despite Lou Williams’ quickly slashing towards the rim.

Tim Hardaway Jr. cuts off the incoming screen, forcing Williams to slash –  which Williams won’t turn down. Justin Jackson has the pop from JaMychal Green covered and either corner is nearly impossible to kick it out to. That leaves Williams with either taking a contested layup over Kleber or finding a rolling Zubac.

Williams attempts to lob it to Zubac but Kleber’s deflection disrupts Zubac’s momentum. Somehow, Zubac locates the ball mid-air with a contested catch, maintains good footwork, displays patience with the pump fake and scores despite the contact. You can put it any way you’d like, but that’s outstanding from Zubac.

Zubac played 33 minutes in game six, his highest total in one game this series. As he did all series, Zubac turned in another A-grade performance with 15 points (6-8 FG) and 11 rebounds.

Watching the film on Zubac’s baskets throughout these games, Zubac ate Dallas up when their defense broke down. Zubac would either roam the baseline behind the hoop or stay along the edges of the paint if he wasn’t being utilized as a roll big.

If George, Leonard, Williams or another creator penetrated the paint, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Zubac getting to his spot, waiting to pounce on the opportunity to score against a collapsing defense. You saw a similar instance in the first clip with Leonard getting inside; this time, it’s George.

George, in isolation, gets a step on Luka Doncic with a slick jab step. Kleber comes to assist, but Zubac remains wide open with Dorian Finney-Smith not covering him. George slips the pass between the defenders and Zubac finishes it off with a reverse slam.

Moving to the rebounding aspect of Zubac’s game in this series, he almost met his regular season average. Zubac averaged 7.5 rebounds in the regular season and grabbed 7.0 rebounds in this series. That average dropped because Zubac averaged only 4.0 rebounds a game in the two losses Los Angeles took (in which he played fewer minutes).

Zubac grabbed 11 rebounds in game six, his highest single game total in the series. This specific rebound was arguably the most impressive. Zubac defends Doncic on the perimeter fantastically, forcing Doncic to move the ball as he nears the baseline. Zubac then goes back near the rim and grabs the rebound.

If Zubac doesn’t do what he does on this play, it’s an easy putback for Finney-Smith. Zubac is initially guarding the perimeter but as Doncic attempts to drive, Zubac tags Finney-Smith’s run into the paint.

Zubac uses his body to box out Finney-Smith and is in prime position for the rebound following the miss. Just simple, fundamental basketball from Zubac that potentially saved points.

Zubac isn’t known to be a tremendous rim protector, as he has averaged just under one block a game throughout his career, and blocks are still the go-to measure for rim protection. During this series, he’s just around the same mark of 0.8 blocks. It’s not eye-popping, but it’s still solid. We know about Zubac’s offensive impact in the paint, but he also provided a solid interior presence on defense as well.

Zubac isn’t known for his athleticism either, but he makes up for it with instinctive play.

In this clip, Doncic attempts to slither his way to the basket as his teammates roam the left perimeter. Doncic is able to back Zubac down further to the rim, but Zubac does great to alter Doncic’s momentum. Doncic tries to use his footwork to create separation, but Zubac reads the footwork. Zubac gets caught for a split second, but is able to recover for a block.

Now this was one of the more interesting situations Zubac found himself in. A one-on-one situation late in the shot clock against Hardaway Jr. on the perimeter? Sure, Zubac will take it.

Zubac drops back, giving himself enough room as Hardaway drives downhill. Hardaway appears to trip mid-Eurostep, making it easy for Zubac to swat it away.

While the Clippers were still trying to get healthy, with Pat Beverley out and Montrezl Harrell clearly not himself, L.A. could count on Zubac whenever he saw the court. Landing Zubac in essentially a swap for Mike Muscula is one of the more underrated moves in recent NBA history.

Keep your eyes on Zubac going forward, as his role on both ends will be critical in the success for the Clippers in the playoffs.

Ivica Zubac’s Play on Both Ends Helped Clippers Advance
Sanjesh Singh

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