We’re continuing our 213Hoops Exit Interview series, where we go player-by-player through the Clippers’ roster and break down how each player on the team performed relative to their pre-season expectations, and ponder their future with the team. Today, we’re taking a look at young big man Ivica Zubac

Basic Information

Height: 7′

Weight: 240 lbs.

Position: C

Age: 24

Years in NBA: 5

Key Stats: The only Clipper to appear in all 72 games (for the 2nd year in a row), Zubac played 22.3 minutes per game and averaged 9.0 points and 7.2 rebounds while shooting 65.2% from the field and 78.9% from the free throw line.

Contract Status: Zubac just completed the second year of an extremely team-friendly 4-year contract signed in 2019. He made $7,000,000 last season and will make $7,518,518 next year before having a team option for the same amount in 2022-23.

Expectations

After a really strong 2019-20 campaign that was somewhat overshadowed by the Clippers’ lack of other viable options at the center position in the playoffs, the expectation was that Ivica Zubac’s role would expand despite the addition of Serge Ibaka to the team. As above-average defensive big man whose main weakness is his footspeed defending quicker perimeter players on switches, Zu is effective at stifling drives and post scorers around the rim. Offensively, Zubac’s limited skillset leaves him mostly searching for dirty work points around the basket on dump-offs, roles to the basket, and offensive rebounds–which is perhaps his most elite skill. Zu grabbed a league-best 15.9% of available offensive boards in 2020 and led the team again at 13.6% (Serge Ibaka, for reference, only pulled down 8.9% of available offensive boards this season) this year, finishing 5th league-wide.

Reality

Zu really struggled to start the year, as his energy levels didn’t adapt well to shifting to a second unit role behind Ibaka despite his overall minute load slightly increasing early in the season. While he did right the ship as a reserve after a rocky start, moving back into the starting lineup mid-season is what really unlocked Zubac’s most effective stretch of play. With his minutes boosted above 27 per game during a 30-game stretch from when Ibaka went down with injury until the Clippers chose to throw their final two games of the season, Zu stepped nicely into his bigger role. He’s never going to be an All-Star who regularly pours in 20-point games, but his positioning is good on both ends of the floor and he makes the right play most of the time. Especially with the Clippers struggling in transition defense for much of the year, Zu’s presence on the offensive glass was a godsend–even when he didn’t create an extra possession, his presence forced multiple opponents to hang back on the defensive glass and he had a knack for getting a touch on the ball, at the very least buying time for the other four Clippers to get back on transition defense.

In the playoffs, like many of the Clippers role players, Zu had his up and downs in terms of play. Against the Dallas Mavericks, he was torched by Luka Doncic on switches, forcing Ty Lue to adjust to playing a smaller lineup with Nic Batum at center that could better disrupt Dallas’ attack. There’s no way around it: the numbers with Zu on the floor against Dallas were Trez-against-Denver levels of bad. But I have to admit, it didn’t feel like Zu was playing terribly–for the most part, he was well-positioned and the Clippers were forcing Doncic into off-the-dribble threes and high-difficulty contested pull-up jumpers, which are exactly the shots you want to concede. But Luka clearly was determined to attack Zubac and the combination of determination and confidence resulted in a red-hot shooting stretch. It wasn’t just vs Zu: Luka made incredibly high-difficulty contested shots against all of the Clippers’ defenders. It’s just that Zu’s lack of footspeed meant he was unable to play as aggressively to take those shots away when it was clear that Luka wasn’t going to stop making them.

Against the Jazz, Zu performed better but again had a limited role as the team looked to stay small and force Rudy Gobert to defend out on the perimeter. I predicted before the series that Zu would have the thankless job of coming in and bringing some physicality against Gobert to mix things up, but ultimately the goal would be to play his minutes even and go on runs with the smaller lineup. That came true as the numbers weren’t particularly impressive, but his ability to draw fouls against Rudy was a significant factor at times. But against the Suns, with the Clippers tasked with a trickier center assignment in DeAndre Ayton, Zu was phenomenal. Of every Clipper, the team had its highest net rating with Zu on the floor in the WCF, and he was arguably the player of the game in the team’s game 3 win–the first Western Conference Finals win in franchise history. After playing a reserve role in game 1, he started, played over 30 minutes, and recorded a double-double in each of the next 3 games of the series before a sprained MCL forced him out of the lineup for games 5 and 6.

Future with Clippers

At 24 years old, and with 2 relatively cheap years left on his contract, there’s no reason to expect that Zubac is going anywhere. He’s right in the sweet spot of being just valuable enough to the team that they’d certainly resist including him in small trades, and not being valuable enough to other teams that they’d view him as a sufficient key piece of a deal for a bigger talent upgrade. As I said, he’s not a star, and there isn’t a ton of upside for him to become one. But he’s really effective in a limited role, and cheap enough that it’s reasonable to expect that the team can build a roster around him that gives Ty Lue other options (like Serge Ibaka and small ball with Nic Batum) so that the team doesn’t need to rely on Zu when his weaknesses are being targeted or the matchup doesn’t suit him. One thing’s for sure: if the Clippers wind up in a series against Nikola Jokic again, we’ll be glad Zu is on our side.

There’s always the chance that Zubac is included in a trade this summer, as the Clippers will of course work to upgrade their supporting cast and he’s one of the few members of the team with firmly positive trade value due to his production, contract, and age (though as I noted, I don’t think he’s a key part of a package netting you an All-Star). But it’s more likely that he’s on the team going forward, sharing minutes with Ibaka (who seems likely to opt in to his player option following back surgery) at the center position. While neither guy is going to carry you in many games, hopefully a year of health from both can help the Clippers get 48 minutes of reliable center production in 2021-22 without the position being inconsistent or a weakness.

213Hoops is an independently owned and operated L.A. Clippers blog by Clippers fans, for Clippers fans. If you enjoy our content, please consider subscribing to our Patreon. Subscriptions start at $1 a month and support from readers like you goes a long way towards helping us keep 213Hoops sustainable, growing, and thriving.

Clippers 2021 Exit Interview: Ivica Zubac
Lucas Hann

We’re continuing our 213Hoops Exit Interview series, where we go player-by-player through the Clippers’ roster and break down how each player on the team performed relative to their pre-season expectations, and ponder their future with the team. Today, we’re taking a look at Patrick Patterson

Basic Information

Height: 6’8″

Weight: 235 lbs.

Position: PF/C

Age: 32

Years in NBA: 11

Key Stats: In 38 appearances, played 15.3 minutes per game and averaged 5.2 points and 2.0 rebounds on 43.6/35.7/76.5 shooting splits. Was the only member of the team’s 17-man roster to not appear in a playoff game.

Contract Status: Patterson’s 1-year, $3,077,701 contract from last off-season is expiring. The Clippers will have his early bird rights, allowing them to offer up to roughly $10.5M in starting salary–though Patterson is extremely unlikely to demand more than a minimum-salary deal.

Expectations

The Patrick Patterson of 2020 was a serviceable second unit guy, just savvy enough as a veteran defender to minimize his negative impact on that end of the floor, and a legitimately good high-volume three-point shooter on the other end. While he wasn’t necessarily a positive for the Clippers in 2020 compared to their alternatives at the power forward position, he provided above-minimum value to the team while playing a reserve role on a minimum-salary contract. And when he was called upon to sponge up regular-season minutes, his three point shooting–39% at 10.5 attempts per 100 possesions, the second-best efficiency/volume combination on the team behind Paul George–was a useful spacing element of the offensive lineups he played in.

Coming into the 2021 season, it seemed fair to expect more of the same. It didn’t make a lot of sense to expect Patterson to improve at his weaknesses between his age 30 and 31 seasons, particularly because he was typically a high-IQ player on both ends of the floor who just lacked the mobility and diverse skillset to make a bigger contribution than “good positioning, slow feet, good shooting.” The Clippers gave PatPat a one-year above-minimum contract in the off-season, which wasn’t necessarily bad value if they expected him to replicate his 2020 performance. But it was definitely a bad use of their limited resources–without very much wiggle room underneath the hard cap, which was triggered by using the full Mid-Level Exception on Serge Ibaka, the Clippers could only afford two minimum deals for the 14th and 15th spots on their roster.

By giving Patterson an above-minimum salary, they blocked off the 15th roster spot for themselves for much of the season–a loss compounded by Mfiondu Kabengele and Daniel Oturu, two big men that the team had drafted in the last two seasons, lacking any ability to contribute even competent spot minutes from the third string. With rookie Jay Scrubb sidelined by injury for almost the entire season, the Clippers’ 17-man roster (including 2-way contracts) only featured 13 actual NBA players for the first half of the year. If the baseline expectation for PatPat was that he’d replicate his 800 minutes of below-average all-around play with redeeming three-point shooting, the opportunity cost of missing out on an extra depth player to retain him meant he needed to at least repeat those contributions, and probably do it in a larger sample of minutes.

Reality

Unfortunately for the Clippers, it wasn’t just the case that PatPat was unable to maintain his level of play in a slightly bigger role this year, it was actually the case that he was unable to replicate his 2020 level of play at all to begin with. Most significantly, Patterson’s three-point shooting dropped off to mere average levels, hitting 35.7% on 9.5 attempts per game. And on a team stocked with elite shooters, he went from the second best efficiency/volume combination on the team in 2020 to probably 8th-best in 2021. The skill he could bring to the table wasn’t in demant on this iteration of the Clippers. And for whatever reason, whether it be the lack of shooting to offset it, another year slowing him down further, or a significantly changed second unit style of play, his mobility drawbacks seemed even more glaring in the 2021 campaign.

In fact, PatPat actually looked better this season when he was playing center precisely because of those footspeed issues. Ultimately, just 241 of his 582 minutes this season came alongside either Ivica Zubac, Serge Ibaka, or DeMarcus Cousins–and 95 more came with one or both of Mfiondu Kabengele and Daniel Oturu, both of whom are probably closer to a center than PatPat but ultimately so bad that they’re rendered somewhat positionless. With those two guys only appearing in garbage time, that means Patterson played roughly 487 non-garbage minutes this year and only half came alongside a traditional center. His best run of play came after the All-Star break, after Ibaka went out of the lineup with the nerve injury that ultimately ended his season but before the team signed Cousins as an emergency third center. For a span of about 3 weeks, PatPat was the Clippers’ second-unit center, and while I wouldn’t say he was necessarily good in the role, I think he was a perfectly adequate fill-in who more or less did what was needed at a passable level to keep the wheels on (the most regular and glaring drawback was his lack of rim protection, though Nicolas Batum previewed his playoff role with some stellar help defense during this stretch).

Overall, Patterson’s 2021 level of play was both a clear step back from what he brought to the team in 2020, as well as a final verdict against the team’s decision to forego an additional depth piece in order to sign PatPat to an above-minimum deal last off-season. All of that said, Patterson wasn’t an atrocity this year–he was just a minimum-salary veteran who got overpaid and didn’t overperform in a year where the Clippers had a couple of guys on actual minimum deals play at 8-figure levels in Batum and Reggie Jackson. After playing slightly above his contract in 2020, Pat played slightly below his increased salary in 2021. He really did put up a classic vet min performance this year: just flawed and old enough to not really be good enough to be a serious rotation piece, yet just experienced and skilled enough to be a competent emergency option when compared to prospect players who might not be NBA-ready.

Future with Clippers

So, following from that, I think it is totally plausible and reasonable that the Clippers might keep Patterson around on a vet’s minimum contract for next season. In fact, they can pay him even more–with two years for LAC now under his belt, PatPat is eligible to make up to $10.5M in starting salary, same as Reggie Jackson. And unlike last season, when the Clippers were hard capped, there’s unlikely to be an opportunity cost to overpaying Patterson this offseason. Even if they don’t want to spring for the full 10M, even a moderate contract worth 4 or 5 million would give the Clippers another contract to use as filler at the trade deadline. As long as the Clippers stay over the apron and can’t consider a move that would trigger the hard cap anyway (incredibly likely to be the case if Kawhi Leonard stays with the team), the only downside of overpaying PatPat this year is extra money coming out of Ballmer’s pockets.

The Clippers could also take advantage of those early bird rights to sign-and-trade Patterson away this off-season. While it wouldn’t make sense for any team to execute a deal like that for Pat himself as a player, his contract could help move the math along of another deal, especially if the Clippers are looking to move expiring deals like Patrick Beverley’s and/or Rajon Rondo’s to bring a bigger salary back. Because of the Base Year Compensation rule, Patterson’s outgoing salary for trade math purposes if he receives more than a 20% raise is limited to the larger of his salary from last year or half of his new salary. That means a 20% raise would bring him to nearly $3.7M in filler, while going all the way to $10.5M would make him worth $5.25M outoing. I’m sure no trade partner would be thrilled to owe Patterson $10 million next season, but it’s theoretically possible if that extra 5M in salary matching would make possible a larger deal that both sides are sufficiently incentivized to make happen.

If the Clippers do look to keep Patterson instead of trading him, they’ll have to consider the roster spot ramifications of committing a guaranteed salary to a guy who seems likely to have no place in the 10-man rotation or any upside to grow into a rotation role in the future. That’s not a reason to get rid of him by itself–most playoff teams keep third-string veterans around. But it’s probably a reason to think that his fate is tied to some other decisions around the roster. As it stands, it doesn’t make a ton of sense for the Clippers to keep both Patterson and Cousins on guaranteed deals for next year. The organization has a longer relationship with Patterson and he has a close friendship with Paul George. But Cousins surpassed Patterson on Ty Lue’s depth chart after joining the team mid-season (though proved he still squarely belongs in the “emergency” category and not “rotation” category), and recieved his own share of praise from teammates and coaches about his presence in the locker room. I’d lean towards PatPat getting the nod, and the Clippers revisiting things with Cousins again mid-season in 2022 if they feel the need. But the need to make that choice could change if the Clippers lose Nic Batum and/or Serge Ibaka in free agency. While the team likely plans to use their taxpayer mid-level exception to attempt to re-sign Batum, his departure might cause the team to look for a player who can play small forward with that money in order to help fill the void left by Kawhi Leonard. In terms of roster spots, that means a little more space for a guy like PatPat at the 4. And if Serge Ibaka declines his player option and chooses to enter free agency and leave the team, the odds of Cousins being retained seemingly increase–although even with just the veteran’s minimum to spend, the Clippers should be able to find a more dependable backup center.

Whatever happens with PatPat, it should be down the agenda for the organization this summer and depend upon how things shake out at multipe other junctures. In particular, it would be a shame if the team is forced to choose between Amir Coffey and Patrick Patterson for the final roster spot and keep PatPat, as Amir is really the better and more promising player. But if both can be kept on minimum deals on the 15-man roster, I’m sure the Clippers would be happy to keep Patterson in the locker room for another campaign.

213Hoops is an independently owned and operated L.A. Clippers blog by Clippers fans, for Clippers fans. If you enjoy our content, please consider subscribing to our Patreon. Subscriptions start at $1 a month and support from readers like you goes a long way towards helping us keep 213Hoops sustainable, growing, and thriving.

Clippers 2021 Exit Interview: Patrick Patterson
Lucas Hann

Today, we’re looking at a season preview for veteran stretch 4 Patrick Patterson, who recently re-signed with the Clippers on a one-year deal to play a bigger role on the team’s second unit.

Basic Information

Height: 6’8″
Weight: 235 lbs
Position: PF
Age: 31
Years in NBA: 10
Key Stats: In 59 appearances last season, played 13.2 minutes per game and averaged 4.9 points and 2.6 rebounds. He was one of the league’s best volume and efficiency shooters, making 39% of his 10.5 attempts per 100 possessions.
Contract Status: Patterson signed a one-year deal with the Clippers worth $3,077,704 using his non-bird rights. He’ll have early bird rights next summer, but in the meantime has an implicit no-trade clause that allows him to veto any mid-season deal.

Expectations

We sort of have to assume that the Clippers consider Patterson a top-10 rotation player this season. There really isn’t any other way to explain why they rushed to give him an above-minimum deal considering their proximity to the hard cap–in fact, even if Patterson is slotted in for 16 minutes a game all season long, it still feels like a questionable choice.

Still, it’s the choice the Clippers made, and Patterson is the team’s presumptive 9th man heading into the season, though we’d hope that an addition like Nicolas Batum has a strong enough impact to pass him in the pecking order. He proved last season that he was a solid above-replacement-level backup power forward, and that’s what we’ll expect from him this season too in an increased role due to the departure of JaMychal Green in free agency. Patterson still isn’t likely going to be a mainstay for Ty Lue in the playoffs, but he should be a nightly contributor in the regular season on a much more consistent basis than last year.

Strengths

Almost exactly opposite of what I said in yesterday’s breakdown of Reggie Jackson, Patterson has one extreme strength that provides almost all of his on-court value: high-volume, high-efficiency three-point shooting. He made 39% of his 2.9 attempts per game in low minutes–exactly 12 power forwards and centers shot better on more than 100 attempts. On the floor, he gives the Clippers a consistent pick-and-pop option who functions without the ball in his hands, allowing him to actively participate in sets as a screener but also space the floor to create more room for the Clippers’ higher-profile offensive creators to operate.

There’s also a bit of intangible value brought by Patterson. He’s a smart, team-first veteran who made a name for himself earlier in his career as a versatile team defender and role player. Even though he’s evolved into more of an offensive player, he still knows how to operate within the defensive scheme and brings positive positioning. Also, last year he was a consummate professional through inconsistent minutes as players like Moe Harkless, JaMychal Green, and Marcus Morris cycled through the rotation ahead of him. While it’s always hard to glean from the outside, Patterson seems like an overall positive and stabilizing presence on a team that had a bit too much turmoil last season for anyone’s liking.

Weaknesses

Besides his shooting, there isn’t a ton that stands out as a big positive for Patterson, but he was solid in most areas last season. He’s not a great rebounder, and probably not good enough to be a consistent option as a small-ball center, but he pulled down 7 per 36 minutes. He isn’t an offensive creator or distributor who is going to do much with the ball in his hands, but that’s not asked of him in his role, and he’s shown a capability of making a simple extra pass to an open man.

It’s really defensively where Patterson’s utility is more situational. He doesn’t have the size to really anchor a unit and protect the rim, and his foot speed just isn’t there to defend on the perimeter. The Clippers could struggle this season against teams that play smaller power forwards, especially on the second unit, and we might see someone like Nicolas Batum see more minutes in certain match-ups. Last season, Doc Rivers preferred to use Patterson in games against teams like the Los Angeles Lakers, who start 2 big men, so his strength could be a deterrent to Anthony Davis. But in 3 pre-bubble games against the New Orleans Pelicans, who start Brandon Ingram at power forward, Patterson played just 12 total minutes.

Summary

In Patrick Patterson, the Clippers retained a solid regular season contributor who will help them maintain their preferred offensive look, spacing the floor at power forward to provide more room for Paul George and Kawhi Leonard to drive into the lane. However, going above the vet’s min may have been a questionable decision considering the hard cap. Ultimately, Patterson’s upside this season is likely emerging as a clear and consistent 9th man, while his downside is sliding back into an 11th man role with Ty Lue opting for a smaller second unit. The likely deciding factor will be his defensive versatility, and whether or not he’s mobile enough to consistently guard the younger, faster forwards he’ll face on most opposing benches.

213Hoops is an independently owned and operated L.A. Clippers blog by Clippers fans, for Clippers fans. If you enjoy our content, please consider subscribing to our Patreon. Subscriptions start at $1 a month and support from readers like you goes a long way towards helping us keep 213Hoops sustainable, growing, and thriving.

Clippers 2020-2021 Season Preview: Patrick Patterson
Lucas Hann

After The Athletic’s John Hollinger reported that Patrick Patterson was signed to a one-year, $3M deal instead of the veteran’s minimum, I figured a quiet afternoon in the NBA was a good opportunity to look at Patrick Patterson’s new contract and explain why he got it and what it means for the Clippers’ plans.

The Veteran’s Minimum

Briefly, let’s talk about the vet’s min and why it’s rather significant that Patterson didn’t get one here. The NBA has a set scale for minimum salaries based on how many years a player has been in the league, increasing from about $900k for rookies to $2.6M for players with 10 or more years of experience. Patterson played his 10th season with the Clippers last year, so his minimum salary for next season would have been $2,564,753. As it is, he signed a deal worth $3M, so why are we fretting about what amounts to less than $500,000?

Well, in order to stop teams from overlooking veterans in order to save money on salaries, when a team signs a player with more than 2 years of experience, the NBA reimburses them for the difference between that player’s minimum and the 2-year minimum (this only applies to one-year minimum deals, not two-year). So, while Patterson would have made $2,564,753 on a minimum deal, the Clippers would have only paid $1,620,564. More important than who writes the check is the issue of cap hit–the smaller number would have counted against LAC’s hard cap, as well as have been the number used for trade math purposes.

Non-Bird Rights

Most NBA fans are familiar with bird rights, the tool that allows teams to exceed the salary cap to re-sign their own players. This helps prevent teams from losing their stars in free agency because they don’t have the cap room to pay them, originating with Larry Bird. However, full bird rights–which allow deals up to the league maximum salary running for up to 5 years with up to 8% raises–only apply to players who have gone 3 years without changing teams as a free agent (so if you are acquired via trade or a waiver claim, your bird rights come with you, and if you re-sign with your prior team, your bird rights persist). For players who have only gone two seasons, there’s the slightly lesser “early bird rights,” which allow teams to give a player the greater of 175% of their prior salary, or the league average salary (currently around $10M). These contracts are limited to 4 years and 5% raises (remember this next summer when Kawhi Leonard is an Early Bird free agent with the Clippers and signs a 1+1 deal instead of a long-term renewal; he’ll angle to hit free agency again in 2022, when LAC will have his bird rights and can give him the longer contract with maximum raises).

Patrick Patterson was released by Oklahoma City during the 2019 off-season, cleared waivers, and signed with the Clippers as a free agent. That was just one season ago, so he’s eligible for the most restrictive version of free agent rights–the “non-bird rights.” These allow a team to pay a player up to 120% of his previous salary or 120% of his minimum salary, whichever is greater. For Patterson, that number comes out to $3,077,704. Based on Hollinger’s tweet, it’s unclear if LAC paid him up to that threshold or the two sides simply struck a deal at an even $3M. Either way, by using non-bird rights and foregoing the league reimbursement LAC structured Patterson’s deal so that he hits the cap for about $1.4M more while only being paid about $500k more.

How Does This Effect The Hard Cap?

Well, my prior calculations assumed that Patterson would be on the vet’s min, and gave the Clippers about $5.2M in room under the hard cap with 3 open roster spots (Joakim Noah and Ky Bowman, who have non-guaranteed deals, aren’t included in those figures). With Patrick Patterson’s contract estimated at 3M instead, the margins tighten. Here’s how it looks:

As you can see, the Clippers are projected to be over the hard cap with 14 players on their roster (technically, Daniel Oturu hasn’t signed his deal yet). Cutting one of Bowman or Noah would get them under, but whoever is cut has to be replaced, as the team is required to carry 14 players on their roster. So, if you cut Bowman, who counts as $1.6M against the hard cap, and replace him with a min deal that counts as $1.6M against the hard cap, you haven’t made any progress. Essentially, Joakim Noah is guaranteed to be released by the Clippers at some point before the season begins.

The maximum room that LAC has under the hard cap would be $3.9M if the cut both Bowman and Noah. They do still have the $3.6M BAE at their disposal, but remember that they have to sign at least two more players. With the minimum cap hit being $1.6M, there really aren’t many options available to LAC besides cutting Noah, choosing between Bowman’s non-guaranteed deal or a replacement min player for the 13th spot, and signing a new min player for the 14th spot. Technically, the team could re-sign Joakim Noah to a new min deal if he clears waivers, but the current depth chart has quite a few big men and no second-string small forward. Given the wait, it seems likely to me that the Clippers are in the front of the line to pursue Charlotte Hornets forward Nicolas Batum, who is likely to get cut this weekend. Other top options remaining on the board are Glenn Robinson III and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, but if the Clippers were going to sign one of those guys it seems like they would have already. That they’re waiting for Batum feels like the most logical explanation.

After reaching that 14-man roster, the Clippers will have about $600k in flexibility to manage their 15th spot during the season. I wrote on Wednesday about some of the creative ways they can utilize that roster spot and cash–like signing a G-League player to a non-guaranteed deal on the day of a game when Kawhi Leonard is load managing and then releasing him after the game, paying him $11k for the day while ensuring you have third-string depth available. Bowman’s non-guaranteed contract can be released at any time through February 27th, and he would only count against the hard cap for the days he spent on the roster. Better yet would be trading Bowman mid-season to remove his entire $1.6M hard cap hit. LAC would then have $2.2M in hard cap wiggle room and two open roster spots, but the rest-of-season deals they’d sign a new free agent to would be pro-rated, costing less than $1.6M.

Does Patrick Patterson’s Contract Help Trades?

Honestly, not really. There’s some idea that having Patterson at the $3M number compared to the $1.6M number could help the Clippers with salary matching in trades. In normal circumstances, that would be true–taxpaying teams like the Clippers can bring in salaries that are within 125% + $100,000 of the salaries they send out. So, for example, Lou Williams’ $8M deal + Patterson at the $1.6M min would be able to bring in up to $12,125,705, while Williams + Patterson at $3M can bring back $13,850,000. Veterans like Thaddeus Young and Patty Mills, who could come up in deadline trade talks, make more than the first number but less than the second.

Here’s the problem, though: the hard cap takes priority over trade math. Just because you can take back Mills’ 13.3M under NBA trade rules doesn’t mean you can exceed the hard cap to do so, and with the Clippers’ aforementioned $600k of wiggle room after signing their last two players, they find themselves far more restricted in terms of trade logistics than they would be under the trade math rules themselves. That can be slightly alleviated mid-season by shedding salary via trade–let’s say the Clippers move Bowman halfway through the season and sign a replacement that makes $810,282 (the minimum pro-rated for exactly half of the season). Now they’ve got $1.4M in wiggle room to make a trade work. Williams, by himself, can bring back $10.1M–adding $2.1M to team salary. Patterson’s contract is still unhelpful.

In that scenario, his inclusion wouldn’t help facilitate a trade, but would take his $3M off of the Clippers’ books. But paying him above the minimum only has value if it helps a trade, not if you need to dump him. For trade math purposes, it would be more advantageous to have him on the minimum and have the extra $1.4M in flexibility.

Additionally, Patterson has an implicit no-trade clause. Players who are signed to one-year deals who will be eligible for Early Bird or Full Bird free agency the next summer have the right to veto any trade that they are included in. That means the Clippers can’t trade him without his permission. His above-minimum contract will be harder for another team to take back in any deal than a minimum salary (which can always be absorbed) would be. Between the hard cap limiting viable scenarios for his salary to be useful trade fodder, his above-minimum deal making it harder for other teams to absorb him, and his implicit no-trade clause, this $3M deal makes Patterson substantially harder to trade and less likely to be traded, not the other way around.

So… Why? Is He Worth It?

In a vacuum, I actually do think Patterson is worth something like $3M. Let’s not forget that he was legitimately useful for the Clippers last year. In 800 regular-season minutes, largely in actual rotation minutes and not just garbage time appearances, he shot 39% from three on 8 attempts per 36 minutes and posted an above-average Win Shares/48, a positive Box Plus-Minus, and a positive VORP. When the Clippers’ signing of Patterson was reported last weekend and expected to be a minimum deal, I wrote that “if a minimum-salary player gives you 800 solid regular-season minutes with an above-average Win Shares/48, a positive Box +/-, and a positive VORP, you got more than your money’s worth.” He was better last season than a minimum-salary player.

It’s also likely, given the timeline of free agency, that this represented a little bit of a conservative play for the Clippers’ front office. By the time on Friday evening that the Patterson deal was announced, it would have already become clear to folks inside LAC’s front office that they would not be able to afford to re-sign JaMychal Green and Marcus Morris while also keeping the MLE open for Serge Ibaka. Having decided to not pursue backup center Montrezl Harrell and having resigned themselves to losing Green in order to pursue Ibaka, but with no commitment yet from Ibaka that he would join the team, the Clippers secured a commitment from Patterson to ensure they’d have some veteran continuity and shooting in their backup frontcourt. We’ll never know the little details of which teams were offering what, but it’s completely realistic to me that teams would look at Patterson’s 800 minutes last season and be willing to pay slightly above the minimum to get that kind of shooting at their backup power forward spot next year.

On balance, though, it was probably a regrettable choice given the way the next 48 hours played out, with the Clippers landing Ibaka and at once both reducing the need for Patterson as an insurance policy and hard capping themselves, increasing the sting of paying him more than the minimum. The additional $1.4M tied up in his deal is a limiting factor for the Clippers as they attempt to fill out their roster in free agency, and it will continue to limit their options at the trade deadline and during buyout season. While he’s a reliable guy to soak up regular-season minutes, his lack of defensive mobility makes him unlikely to feature regularly in the playoffs or make a significant positive impact when he does (he played just 10 total garbage time minutes across two appearances during the Clippers 2020 playoff run). Adequate alternatives existed at the minimum, like Solomon Hill (took a minimum deal in Atlanta), Frank Kaminsky (who took a non-guaranteed minimum deal in Sacramento), Anthony Tolliver (who remains unsigned), and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (who remains unsigned and is better than Patterson, just not a shooter).

213Hoops is an independently owned and operated L.A. Clippers blog by Clippers fans, for Clippers fans. If you enjoy our content, please consider subscribing to our Patreon. Subscriptions start at $1 a month and support from readers like you goes a long way towards helping us keep 213Hoops sustainable, growing, and thriving.

Patrick Patterson’s New Contract, Explained
Lucas Hann

According to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, the Los Angeles Clippers will re-sign Patrick Patterson. The veteran forward was a quality depth piece for the team last season.

This is likely a one-year veteran’s minimum deal for Patterson, which would pay him $2,564,753 but only cost the Clippers $1,620,564. For veterans with more than two years of experience, the league reimburses teams for the difference between the veteran’s minimum and the two-year minimum, and the smaller number is used in salary cap calculations.

After the Clippers drafted Daniel Oturu on Wednesday, I anticipated that a Patterson return could be less likely, with the team adding a young stretch big man in addition to Mfiondu Kabengele, who is already on the roster after being picked 27th overall in last year’s draft.

However, it appears that the Clippers have determined that there is space for Patterson on the roster. His inclusion makes sense–last year he played 59 games for the Clippers, starting 18 and averaging 13.2 minutes per game, and filled those minutes adequately. He isn’t super exciting all-around player, but his elite three-point shooting from the power forward position and overall stability and experience gave the Clippers really reliable depth last year. If a minimum-salary player gives you 800 solid regular-season minutes with an above-average Win Shares/48, a positive Box +/-, and a positive VORP, you got more than your money’s worth.

The Clippers executing this deal before Marcus Morris or JaMychal Green suggests that, for one reason or another, those players are waiting. It could be because they want to seek offers from multiple teams, or because the Clippers are involved in other pursuits and not ready to fully commit the necessary offers to lock those guys up. For Patterson, as long as there was a spot on the roster for another stretch big, there is no opportunity cost to agreeing to his veteran’s minimum deal now.

213Hoops is an independently owned and operated L.A. Clippers blog by Clippers fans, for Clippers fans. If you enjoy our content, please consider subscribing to our Patreon. Subscriptions start at $1 a month and support from readers like you goes a long way towards helping us keep 213Hoops sustainable, growing, and thriving.

Clippers Re-Sign Patrick Patterson
Lucas Hann

Now that the Clippers’ 2020 season has reached its disappointing end, 213Hoops will work through the roster player-by-player for our “Exit Interview” series. Today’s exit interview features shooter Patrick Patterson.

Basic Information

Height: 6’8″

Weight: 235

Position: Power Forward

Age: 31

Years in NBA: 10

Key Stats: Made 59 appearances and 18 starts for the Clippers, averaging 4.9 points and 2.6 rebounds in 13.2 minutes per game. Shot 39% from three on 2.9 attempts per game. Played just 9:43 of garbage time across two appearances in the playoffs.

Contract Status: Unrestricted free agent coming off of a one-year veteran’s minimum contract worth $2.3M. The Clippers will have non-bird rights on Patterson, which means that they can pay him up to 120% of the minimum salary for a 10-year veteran–roughly $3.1M. This contract can run up to 4 years and carry maximum raises of 5%.

Expectations

Patterson came to the Clippers looking to rebuild his value after a dismal two-year run in Oklahoma City that ended with him playing himself out of the rotation at the end of the 2019 season. After being a quality rotation piece for the Toronto Raptors in his mid-20s as a versatile and dependable defender and solid shooting power forward, Patterson found himself being waived by the Thunder last summer and looking simply for an opportunity to play on a roster.

For a Clippers team that featured returned big men Ivica Zubac and Montrezl Harrell, re-signed JaMychal Green after a big 2019 playoff performance, and added forwards Kawhi Leonard and Moe Harkless, there didn’t seem to be a real spot in the rotation for Patterson. But, joining former Thunder teammate and good friend Paul George, Patterson figured to provide the Clippers with a little more trustworthy depth than rookie big man Mfiondu Kabengele and two-way center Johnathan Motley.

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Reality

The Clippers’ arrangement with Patterson ended up working out well for both parties, as various combinations of injuries, load management, and match-ups over the course of the season resulted in the Clippers looking to Patterson regularly, for almost 800 regular-season minutes. He started 18 games, including the first 11 of the season, and played 12 or more minutes 34 times. While he wasn’t one of the Clippers’ rotation players when the team was fully healthy, he gave them quality minutes when they weren’t.

While being solid defensively and on the glass, Patterson’s primary contribution was his high-volume, high-efficiency three-point shooting. He was one of just fifteen players in the NBA to shoot 39% or better on 10.5 or more attempts per 100 possessions in the regular season, and that shooting helped the Clippers’ spacing throughout the year.

The acquisition of Marcus Morris, along with the team’s tightening playoff rotation, squeezed Patterson’s minutes as the year wore on and the team entered the Orlando bubble. Morris and Green are both better all-around players than Patterson, with each bringing more defensively than Patrick at this stage in his career and Morris having the ability to create his own shot while Green is a very good rebounder as a smaller center. On the shooting front, neither quite reached Patterson’s output but are comparable: Green shot 38.7% from deep on 8.6 attempts per 100 possessions this year, while Morris shot 40.8% on 8.7.

With most of the Clippers’ supporting cast struggling from deep in the team’s second-round loss to the Denver Nuggets, I thought that Rivers could have tried Patterson in spurts later in the series to provide spacing–but the fact that he never played after garbage time in game 1 suggests that Rivers never considered him an option.

All in all, Patterson did everything that can be asked of a minimum-salary depth veteran and played better than any fair expectation could have asked for.

Future with Clippers

That performance might be just the reason why he isn’t back with the Clippers next season. While Patterson isn’t a candidate for a big contract or starting role anywhere in the league, he certainly seems to have played well enough to earn a look from any team that could use a floor-spacing big on their second unit.

With Patterson’s non-bird rights, the Clippers can offer him a contract starting at just under $3.1M. It’s unlikely that other teams will offer Patterson much more than that–in fact, it could end up being his only above-minimum offer–but what the Clippers can’t offer him is minutes. At 31 years old, it would make sense for Patterson to try and leverage his performance last year into a bigger role on a one-year deal for another team this year and potentially attempt to earn one more real NBA contract next off-season. If he comes back to LA, he’ll spend a lot of time on the bench again, limiting his ability to build his value.

But if he can be convinced to return, it would be great for both the Clippers’ depth and continuity. Patterson gives Rivers a stylistically consistent replacement for Morris or Green at PF, which could come into play if either is injured but also if they slide to other positions. Morris is comfortable at either forward position, and could see occasional time at SF next season when Leonard misses back-to-backs for load management or even find regular second-unit minutes bringing his offensive punch when the starters are out. Green, on the other hand, slides to center at times and could feature there throughout the year either to provide injury depth or as a situational option depending on who the team’s backup center is going into next season.

The Clippers have two options in terms of contracts for Patterson: they can offer him the aforementioned non-bird deal starting at $3.1M, or they can offer him a new veteran’s minimum contract at nearly $2.6M. It’s clear which Patterson would prefer, but the two options carry different perks from LA’s perspective.

Veteran’s minimum contracts benefit teams because a portion of the player’s salary is reimbursed by the league. This means that the Clippers would only be on the hook for $1.6M of Patterson’s $2.6M, saving not only some cash but helping them navigate the luxury tax threshold and hard cap apron, both of which could come into play this off-season. And just as teams can always exceed the cap to sign a minimum-salary player, they can also always add a minimum-salary player via trade–meaning that if the Clippers need help facilitating at next year’s deadline, Patterson’s minimum-salary deal would count as outgoing salary for LAC but not incoming salary for their trade partner.

But in any trade the Clippers make at the deadline, they’re more likely to be piecing together salary to bring in a larger contract. That means that the bigger salary for Patterson would provide more filler in a deal, so paying him more could actually be better for the team. If he doesn’t bolt for more money or a better role elsewhere, it would be great for the Clippers to have him back on the bench next season.

213Hoops is an independently owned and operated L.A. Clippers blog by Clippers fans, for Clippers fans. If you enjoy our content, please consider subscribing to our Patreon. Subscriptions start at $1 a month and support from readers like you goes a long way towards helping us keep 213Hoops sustainable, growing, and thriving.

Clippers 2020 Exit Interview: Patrick Patterson
Lucas Hann

The Los Angeles Clippers have experienced an up-and-down bubble so far, going 3-3 with good wins and head-scratching losses. With the adversity the squad has faced, the mixed results aren’t too shocking (though a loss to the Brooklyn Nets in their current state is pretty appalling.) However, the Clippers have received steady performances from JaMychal Green, whose critical floor spacing as a small-ball center has opened up the offense.

On paper, Green’s numbers have slightly decreased from last year when he split time with the Memphis Grizzlies before coming to the Clippers. Green is playing one more minute a game than he did last season with the Clippers, but his shooting numbers have declined.

In 24 games with L.A. last season, Green shot 48.2% (6.8 attempts) from the field, 41.3% from three (3.3 attempts) and 81% from the charity stripe (0.9 attempts). Through 61 games this season, those figures have dropped to 42.8% from the field (5.6 attempts), 38.1% from three (3.8 attempts) and 75% from the stripe (0.8 attempts). As a result, Green’s points per game went from 8.7 last season to 6.8 now.

However, JaMychal Green has stepped up his game in the Orlando bubble and his ability to provide floor spacing plays a big role in finding open looks for himself as well as others.

Green literally has the green light from anywhere on the court since the bubble games commenced. Through six games, Green is shooting 14-27 from beyond the arc, a rate of 51.8%. He’s taking good looks and is drilling them with confidence.

The players are still developing chemistry and rhythm as they haven’t played meaningful basketball in months, but Green looks like he hasn’t missed a second.

In this play, the Clippers run a top pick-and-roll with Lou Williams as the initiator. Green typically comes off the bench with Montrezl Harrell as his frontcourt partner, but because Harrell hasn’t played yet, Patrick Patterson is next up. Patterson revived his career in L.A. following two unimpressive seasons in Oklahoma City and his floor spacing opens this play up further.

The Clippers empty the interior with Green serving as the roll big and Patterson standing in the left corner. Williams utilizes Green’s screen effectively as he makes Trey Burke trail him. Kristaps Porzingis needs to stay in front of Williams so Williams makes the read to Green, who popped out to the right. Porzingis can’t recover in time and it’s three points for Green.

The acquisition of Marcus Morris has its pros and cons, but his floor spacing comes into play here. Again, the Clippers don’t have an interior presence. Green leaks out beyond the arc, attempting to lure Porzingis away from the paint.

Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are the playmakers on the court. Leonard is able to penetrate the defense after catching the ball, which pulls in four defenders. Dallas is left scrambling when Leonard gets inside and it’s up to Leonard to take advantage of it starting with a pass.

He uses his claw to fake it to Morris, but kicks it out to Green. Green and Landry Shamet play catch causing Burke to run around and the ball movement ends up with Porzingis closing late again. Porzingis gets caught watching the ball and Green drills the big basket late in the game.

What’s another advantage that comes with Green’s floor spacing? Trailing in transition. He can be used as a trailer when coming up the court on either a rebound or made field goal. It’s a simple method to give your big man easy looks and it paid off here.

Much of getting a good look in transition comes down to the defender. Will the defender close out strong? Will the defender not take the bait in case the trailer passes the ball? Can you catch the defender unprepared?

George looks like he wanted to do more with the ball here. However, some stellar defense from Gary Trent Jr. forces George to pass the ball before a traveling violation occurs.

Green never thinks about passing. He has room because Jusuf Nurkic provides it by not closing out strongly. Nurkic is also caught ball-watching for a second too long that allows Green more time to have a clean release. In the end, it’s a good shot from the 6’8″ big.

Green won’t entertain you with fancy passing but his floor spacing also unlocks open looks for his teammates. The dangerous aspect to Green’s game is that you can’t leave him open – his percentage is too respectable to disregard.

The Mavericks double George to prevent the ball going to Leonard as the other Clippers roam the arc. Because of the double on George, there’s bound to be an open Clipper. Green cuts backdoor and kicks it back out to Morris, taking advantage of the two-vs-one situation on Luka Doncic’s hands. It helped that Dallas showed minimal effort to recover.

I have no idea how the Clippers pulled off this win without multiple key players, but they somehow accomplished victory. The biggest play that led to the win was this clutch shot from Rodney McGruder, who’s not a good long range shooter.

However, the open look McGruder gets is largely due to the defense respecting Green. Terance Mann easily blows by Nurkic in the opposite corner, which draws in Carmelo Anthony, Green’s defender. Anthony has to prevent the possible layup attempt, but it leaves CJ McCollum in a rough situation.

McCollum rotates to prevent Mann from going to Green, leaving Mann to pass to McGruder. It’s the difference between having the hot hand in Green shooting or a player who doesn’t shoot many threes in McGruder. Green commanded McCollum’s attention, granting McGruder sufficient time to nail a clutch triple.

Green’s stable play in the seeding games have been a pleasing sight for a team not at full strength yet. Once the missing pieces start filling in during the playoffs, Green will continue to hold a key role in the rotation. He sticks to his strengths whether he’s playing power forward or center.

There’s a reason Green has a net rating of +8.4 and a true shooting percentage of 76.3 in five games in August. Expect the floor spacing of JaMychal Green to contribute to more Clippers’ success in the near future.

 213Hoops is an independently owned and operated L.A. Clippers blog by Clippers fans, for Clippers fans. If you enjoy our content, please consider subscribing to our Patreon. Subscriptions start at $1 a month and support from readers like you goes a long way towards helping us keep 213Hoops sustainable, growing, and thriving.

JaMychal Green’s Floor Spacing has Opened Up the Offense For the Clippers
Sanjesh Singh

The Los Angeles Clippers came into Orlando with numerous concerns surrounding some of their key players. While this might be concerning, it also means the Clippers’ best basketball is still to come.

Here’s just a quick summary of some of the setbacks the Clippers have faced. Ivica Zubac and Landry Shamet arrived to the bubble late due to having positive COVID-19 tests. Marcus Morris came late as well, and is expecting the birth of his son soon, which will cause him to depart the bubble again. Montrezl Harrell and Patrick Beverley, who were already in Orlando, both left due to family emergencies. Lou Williams also departed the bubble to attend a family funeral in Atlanta, but a stop for wings made him quarantine for ten days upon returning.  

The Clippers don’t have to worry about losing their playoff spot in the Western Conference, but since basketball hasn’t been played in four months, it’s imperative to have the main rotation in form sooner rather than later. Team chemistry, conditioning and shaking off the rust is top priority for a team primed to make a deep run in the playoffs – and keep the best seed possible. 

The three scrimmage games every team in Orlando played was designed for that purpose. For the Clippers, however, the scrimmages primarily showcased the young guys they have at the end of the bench – and Joakim Noah. Terrence Mann, Amir Coffey and Rodney McGruder played hefty minutes due to the shorthanded roster, which is good for them, but didn’t help the Clippers get into their real rotations. 

Fortunately, the Clippers got reinforcements with Zubac, Shamet and Beverley returning for the Los Angeles Lakers matchup. However, Montrezl Harrell still isn’t with the team as he grieves the death of his grandmother, Williams’ quarantine just ended, and he looked quite rusty in his first game back – he’ll need more time to get back up to speed.

Still, the Clippers are improving after not playing in so long, and as the players find their rhythms, it’s clear that the best is still to come for the squad. 

A two-point loss to the Lakers isn’t bad at all considering the circumstances. You can point to any missed shot by the Clippers as deciding the outcome, but the game was winnable. Beverley, on a minutes restriction, scored 12 points in 16 minutes. Zubac got into foul trouble and saw 15 minutes of action where he only scored two points. Marcus Morris went scoreless in 19 minutes, Shamet couldn’t buy a basket, and Reggie Jackson’s decision-making on offense looked rough.

Still, the Clippers knocked down 16 threes on 36 attempts, good for 44.4%. That’s a tremendous rate to hit on opening day, with Paul George’s six triples playing a big role in that success. Kawhi Leonard started off slow but got into a rhythm as the game went on and finished with 28 points. The two stars did their jobs, but they needed assistance. 

Against the New Orleans Pelicans, George and Leonard received help and it showed on the scoreboard. Following a successful game from deep against the Lakers, the Clippers somehow managed to top that rate. The Clippers shot 25-47 from deep, good for 53.2%. Again, George was the forefront of the team’s success by hitting on 8-11 attempts, but the players who struggled on opening day began to assert themselves against the Pelicans. 

Morris hit a three en route to nine points, Shamet knocked down two threes for his only field goals, and Zubac grabbed nine rebounds in 24 minutes. Beverley, who started but was still on a minutes restriction, provided his usual consistent presence from deep going 3-5 for nine points. Jackson came off the bench to lead that unit, scoring 15 points in 20 minutes and knocking down 3-4 threes. 

The hot shooting from the entire team proved to be too much to overcome for New Orleans and illustrated how dangerous the Clippers can be when the players are at their best. That level of shooting for L.A. is definitely unsustainable, but considering the fact that Williams and Harrell didn’t play, it could’ve been worse for the Pelicans. 

The scorching hot shooting for the Clippers cooled off massively against the Phoenix Suns, but games like that happen every now and then. George and Leonard struggled to hit their shots despite being the team’s leading scorers. As a team, the Clippers shot just 8-29 from deep, a clip of 27.6%. That could lead to believing the Clippers were blown out by their opponents, but that wasn’t the case. Though the Suns were the team on fire from three (17-32, 53.1%), it took a tough turnaround jumper at the buzzer by Devin Booker to win. 

In good news, Morris and Zubac were a combined 13-17 from the floor, with Zubac grabbing 12 rebounds. Zubac notably arrived in Orlando late, and to see him put up a performance that was desperately needed (besides the late crucial turnover) gives the frontcourt additional versatility going forward while JaMychal Green continues to be a perfect floor space at center. 

Williams made his return following his 10-day quarantine, but he naturally didn’t play as well as he could’ve. Williams grabbed six rebounds and dished out six assists, but he couldn’t provide the points off the bench that he’s known for. With Beverley leaving the game early, the Clippers should be relieved that Williams is back now rather than later, as Beverley’s injury is one to watch going forward. 

Now that Williams is back, it’ll be interesting to see how Doc Rivers gets him going. Williams won’t have his main PnR partner in Harrell available yet, but as mentioned, Beverley’s injury sets the team back in some areas. With Beverley being out, more of the ballhandling and playmaking duties will fall on Lou, which could be rough as he gets into shape, but will be good for him in the long term. 

It may take a few games for Williams to find his footing again. One key thing for Lou will be hitting his outside shots (he didn’t hit one against the Suns). He’s not elite from the arc, but he’s a respectable threat and with Beverley’s shooting currently out of the equation, Williams will need to step up on that end as well as providing his usual scoring inside the arc. 

The Clippers play the Dallas Mavericks next, and that’s a team that hasn’t looked sharp defensively. Guards have been scoring with ease against them, making it a good opportunity for Williams to shine.

When Harrell makes his return to the bubble, there’s no doubt the Clippers will see a big boost in energy and interior scoring. Due to the recent passing of his grandmother, we could be seeing Harrell with more energy and passion than ever. Writing that sentence alone gives me goosebumps.

https://twitter.com/MONSTATREZZ/status/1290734117907308548?s=19 

Harrell’s presence in the paint would’ve been vital in a game as against the Suns where nothing fell from deep. Green’s spacing has provided the Clippers with an alternative if having Zubac or Noah on the court isn’t ideal, but nobody can match Trez’s ability to score and create in the paint. His scoring and energy simply isn’t replaceable. 

The Clippers losing two games by four points in the final seconds against two good teams speaks volumes to how great they can be when Williams and Harrell return. The Clippers haven’t been fully healthy for the most parts of this season, but they’re getting close to it (despite Beverley’s injury). Once that happens, the chemistry and execution should start to pick up as well.

Reintegrating Williams and Harrell into the rotation should serve the team better than giving Patrick Patterson and Shamet minutes right now, even with Lou and Trez being rusty. With those two back, the Clippers not only get stronger on paper, but also gain new dimensions on the court that will make a huge difference in games against competitive teams. Other Western Conference opponents should fear the opportunity to play a Clippers team that hasn’t reached their best in Orlando yet.

213Hoops is an independently owned and operated L.A. Clippers blog by Clippers fans, for Clippers fans. If you enjoy our content, please consider subscribing to our Patreon. Subscriptions start at $1 a month and support from readers like you goes a long way towards helping us keep 213Hoops sustainable, growing, and thriving.

The Clippers’ Best Bubble Basketball is Still to Come
Sanjesh Singh

After over 4 months without meaningful basketball, we’re all a little eager to talk hoops. So, in addition to 213Hoops contributor Thomas Wood’s excellent game recap from last night, I wanted to chime in this morning to offer five takeaways from Clippers – Lakers on opening night.

Now, as exciting as the game was, and as important as it felt, I feel the need to start by reminding us all that at the end of the day, it was just one regular season basketball game. Sure, these teams share a city and are the presumptive pairing for the Western Conference Finals in September, but they’re also both using low-importance seeding games to warm up for real action in the upcoming playoffs. On top of that, the Clippers’ Orlando camp was disjointed, as Marcus Morris arrived late, Ivica Zubac and Landry Shamet had delayed arrivals due to positive COVID tests, and Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams, and Montrezl Harrell had to depart the bubble for family emergencies. While the other four played last night, Williams is unavailable as he undergoes a 10-day quarantine, and Harrell is still with family outside of the bubble.

So, my apologies, but you won’t find a meltdown over a 2-point regular season loss on 213Hoops. As I share my takeaways from last night, you also won’t find major overreactions. I’m not going to say that Marcus Morris is a bad player based on his abysmal game against the Lakers (even considered alongside his other abysmal game against the Lakers in March). But, we all watched 48 minutes of basketball last night, so let’s look at five takeaways from Lakers-Clippers and figure out what we learned:

Clippers Lakers Takeaway Number One: The Clippers need Patrick Beverley

Signing Reggie Jackson to a rest-of-season minimum deal was a steal for the Clippers. After months of discussing uninspiring potential mid-season point guard additions, Jackson, a 300-game NBA starter, fell into the Clippers’ lap. He was great for them in 9 regular season games off the bench before the season’s suspension, and provides a far better fill-in option at point guard when normal starter Patrick Beverley is unavailable than any of LA’s alternatives.

But he’s still not Pat. Jackson, who had an embattled and hotly criticized tenure as a starter in Detroit, showed some of his worse attributes on Thursday, often allowing his speed to carry him into tricky situations and difficult drives. He finished with 3-10 shooting, 4 assists, and 4 turnovers in 34 minutes, and his presence on the court rarely inspired confidence.

Beverley, playing on a de facto minutes restriction as he returns to action following a family emergency, contributed 12 points in 16 minutes, including 8 fourth quarter points as the Clippers fought back to make it a tight game in the closing minutes. While Jackson makes more things happen offensively than Pat, those things aren’t always good–in a lineup replete with high-efficiency scorers, there’s something to be said for a point guard who is patient with the ball and defers to the stars while playing elite defense and hitting a high percentage of his threes.

Jackson has an important role to play on this team, but tonight was a reminder of just how important Patrick Beverley is to the Clippers.

Clippers Lakers Takeaway Number Two: Zubac and Shamet need time

Look, sometimes we just have to be patient. Ivica Zubac and Landry Shamet are not only two of the Clippers’ best players, but they’re the Clippers two best young players, both 23 years old. While Zubac had a stellar year for the Clippers, and Shamet was inconsistent but remained the team’s best pure shooter, it’s possible that both will see their minutes reduced in the Orlando bubble.

After each testing positive for the coronavirus in early July, Zubac and Shamet did not arrive in Orlando until last week, missing not only weeks of important team practices but also going weeks without doing conditioning work or getting shots up. It takes a while for a human body to build from weeks of inactivity to having the conditioning to perform at a high level in the NBA, and symptoms of COVID–such as fatigue–can take weeks or months to clear up after a patient has otherwise recovered.

There’s no way around it: both Zubac and Shamet were awful last night against the Lakers. But I can also say with full confidence that neither is an awful basketball player. Give them time to get their legs under them and figure things out–even if it means reduced roles in Orlando and a healthy start next season.

Clippers Lakers Takeaway Number Three: Amir Coffey has climbed the depth chart

This might be the least consequential of the bunch, but I promised five takeaways from Clippers – Lakers and I intend to fulfill that promise. Plus, who doesn’t love Coffey–the undrafted guard who starred for the Clippers in summer league last year, signed a two-way deal, and ultimately was chosen to come to Orlando over the team’s first-round pick from the same draft.

It’s basically impossible for Coffey to earn regular minutes on this team, as the Clippers have star-studded wings and quality guard depth. But beyond the starting unit of Beverley, George, and Leonard, and the second trio of Jackson, Williams, and Shamet, it’s likely that at one point or another in the playoffs Doc will run into the right combination of minor injuries, foul trouble, and off nights and need a few minutes from someone. Tonight, with Williams quarantined and Beverley and Shamet both limited, Coffey was that someone for Doc Rivers, playing a few minutes in each half and contributing a made three in his only recorded stat.

Rivers’ choice to trust Coffey over veteran wing Rodney McGruder is not only noteworthy as a predictor of where he will turn in future situations, but also compelling when considering each player’s future with the team beyond this season.

Clippers Lakers Takeaway Number Four: JaMychal Green and Patrick Patterson both deserve minutes

I’m not sure that there’s a right answer for Doc Rivers at the power forward position. Currently firmly entrenched at starter is versatile scorer Marcus Morris, the veteran forward who was averaging 20 points per game and shooting 44% from deep for the New York Knicks before the Clippers paid a high price for him at this year’s trade deadline. Then, battling for backup minutes are JaMychal Green and Patrick Patterson, two more traditional stretch 4s who play a lot of pick-and-pop game while battling defensively.

The biggest problem Rivers faces isn’t which backup forward’s number to call on a given night–it’s that both backups have been far superior than the guy starting ahead of them since his arrival in Los Angeles. Now, last night was just Marcus Morris’ 13th game as a Clipper–even without his New York efficiency, we have a decade of data to look at and know he won’t be as bad over a large sample size as he’s been so far.

Going away from Morris now would be a mistake, not because it would make the trade look bad, but because he is a potentially valuable weapon for the Clippers in the postseason. But even last night, where Morris played 19 minutes to Patterson’s 22 and Green’s 29, it felt indefensible for Rivers to keep his starter on the floor for as much of the fourth quarter as he did.

I don’t have a broad, sweeping conclusion to the discussion of how to handle these power forward minutes. Maybe it varies drastically based on match-up. Maybe Morris can pick up extra minutes as the second-unit small forward, where he’d get more touches playing behind Kawhi Leonard instead of along side him. There may come a point where JaMychal Green needs to be inserted into the starting lineup over Morris, but we aren’t there yet.

For now, the takeaway is just that the Clippers have a legitimate question mark at the power forward position.

Clippers Lakers Takeaway Number Five: The small-ball lineup has potential

The most important of my five takeaways from last night’s Clippers – Lakers game also has to do with the team’s power forwards. After Rivers frustrated fans all season by limiting JaMychal Green’s time at center following his excellent performances as a small-ball 5 in last year’s playoffs, limited depth has finally forced Green to center in Orlando.

With Zubac and Noah each unable to play huge minutes, and Montrezl Harrell not with the team, Green has consistently gotten center minutes in the team’s scrimmages and opening seeding game. When Green and Patterson play together, the Clippers’ offense takes on a new dimension: with two floor-spacing bigs, the opposing center is dragged out of the paint, freeing up driving lanes for the Clippers’ stars. When defenses collapse around Leonard and George, Patterson and Green are reliable spot-up and pick-and-pop shooters that punish the opposition. It’s been a sneakily effective way for the Clippers, who have sometimes struggled to find a good flow offensively to open up passing lanes and create more fluid possessions.

The Clippers aren’t the Rockets–playing small probably shouldn’t be their identity. When they go small, they miss Zubac’s rim protection and rebounding, Noah’s passing and defensive mobility, and Montrezl Harrell’s energy and elite interior scoring. But just as each of those centers brings a unique wrinkle to the Clippers’ lineup, so does the defensive versatility and floor-spacing ability of the Patterson-Green pairing (and perhaps a Morris-Green pairing, if Marcus can make a shot as a Clipper).

Doc Rivers will have to be willing to stick with them when they’re losing on the glass (though more minutes for Patrick Beverley going forward will help the team’s rebounding) and getting pounded inside, but this tandem has the potential to create more additional points than they concede, and potentially force larger, slower big men off the floor by making them defend on the perimeter.

There you have it: my five takeaways from last night’s opener between the Clippers and Lakers. If you disagree, or noticed something I didn’t mention, let me know in the comments!

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Five Takeaways from Clippers – Lakers
Lucas Hann

As NBA teams gear up to begin pre-season “scrimmage” play in Orlando this week, it’s safe to say that we shouldn’t take these pre-mid-season games too seriously. But, still, the games are going to be on TV and we’re going to be watching, so I figured it would be good to check in and discuss what to watch for in the Orlando scrimmages.

First, let’s outline what not to watch for: quality from the Clippers’ good players. Guys that are guaranteed to be a part of the team’s playoff core–Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams, Paul George, and Kawhi Leonard come to mind among players who are currently in Orlando (Montrezl Harrell left the bubble due to a family matter, while Ivica Zubac and Landry Shamet all have yet to arrive in Orlando at all and Marcus Morris participated in his first practice this morning)–don’t really need these games to be anything more than tune-ups. I expect them all to play (though it wouldn’t be a big deal if someone, like Morris who just arrived, sat out), but they should all have relatively limited minutes as they work into game shape and Doc Rivers balances getting everyone playing time in the 10-minute scrimmage quarters.

While I know we’ll all be excited to see some of our favorite Clippers take the court, a poor shooting night for one of their stars really doesn’t mean much. The further we go down the Clippers’ roster, however, the more these largely meaningless games can become meaningful for individual players who are going to be competing with each other for minutes as the absent Clippers arrive in Orlando, the playoffs drag on, and Doc Rivers’ rotation tightens. So, with that in mind, here are 3 things to watch for as the Clippers return to play this week:

Is Joakim Noah “back”?

This is what most Clippers fans will watch for in the Orlando scrimmages. Few topics in the Clippersphere have as much intrigue as how the arrival of Joakim Noah will impact the team in Orlando. Originally signed to a 10-day contract just before the season was suspended, Noah has yet to actually appear in a game for the club, but has now been an anticipated free agent arrival for over four months. Of course, the Joakim Noah you’ll remember–2013-14’s Defensive Player of the Year and All-NBA First Team Center–ain’t walking through that door. But that doesn’t mean, half a decade later, that the 35-year-old veteran has nothing to offer the Clippers in this title run.

Noah signed mid-season with the Memphis Grizzlies last season and contributed quite solidly, posting averages of 7.1 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 2.1 assists while playing 16.5 minutes per game in 42 contests. More important than his per-minute stats, he showed that while he is no longer in his prime, he was still Joakim Noah in Memphis–a fiercely physical and passionate center who excelled at rebounding and was a far above-average passer for his position. At his best, Noah has a bit of Patrick Beverley in him, and it should be a real treat for Clippers fans to watch the two of them share the floor in Orlando.

Still, Noah is a year older now and has had to recover from another major injury. With the Clippers already boasting two good-but-limited younger centers, there’s a pretty wide spectrum for Joakim’s potential impact in the playoffs: anywhere from “a good locker room presence who isn’t really serviceable” to “the center Doc Rivers trusts most to close big games.” While he would have gotten run in these scrimmages regardless, it’s worth nothing that the Clippers have no other center in Orlando currently. Even when Montrezl Harrell returns and Ivica Zubac arrives, it’s unlikely that either of those guys will bring much different than the (very good) versions of themselves that fans have grown accustomed to watching. But Noah provides a player ripe to be evaluated, and while we don’t want to overreact to good or bad performances in these meaningless scrimmages, we should be able to learn a little bit about the extent to which he still is (or isn’t) an NBA-caliber player.

JaMychal Green and Patrick Patterson

Another thing to watch for in the Orlando scrimmages will be the backup power forward battle. I like both JaMychal Green and Patrick Patterson quite a bit (though I must say I give the edge to Green after his wonderful playoff performances for the Clippers last season). But here’s something that I think is safe to say: if the Clippers stay healthy, only one of these guys will be a rotation fixture in the playoffs. Now that Marcus Morris has arrived in Orlando, he figures to take over the starting power forward spot, and between Morris’ likely big minutes and any time Kawhi Leonard takes at power forward in small-ball lineups, there’s only minutes for one backup power forward at most.

But what will be a crowded front court when the Clippers’ roster is intact is wide-open as scrimmage play begins. Not only do Green and Patterson have the chance to both get minutes at power forward as Morris eases his way back into the lineup, but they’re also the two most viable options to split minutes at center with Joakim Noah (though Rivers has hinted in the past that he’d like to try small-ball lineups with Morris at center). It’s not likely that anyone will play seriously heavy minutes during these scrimmages, but the openness in the current depth chart means that both will get plenty of run to both prove their superior fit as the team’s backup 4 throughout the bubble, as well as potentially convince Doc Rivers to incorporate small-ball lineups with one of them spacing the floor at center.

Beyond these scrimmages, we’re just over a week away from opening night against the Los Angeles Lakers on July 30th–a bit of déjà vu from Doc Rivers’ decision to start Patterson over Green and then-normal starter Moe Harkless way back when the 2019-20 season opened against the Lakers on October 22nd of last year. One of these two will need to use the July practices and scrimmages to pull ahead in Doc Rivers’ eyes.

Third String Wings

The general rule of thumb is that the less a game means, the more you’ll be able to see obscure players–like benchwarmers, prospects, two-way players–get real reps. So, when I was asked on some podcasts this weekend what to watch for in the Orlando scrimmages, my mind immediately went to the Clippers’ third-string perimeter players: Terance Mann, Rodney McGruder, and Amir Coffey.

Coffey and Mann, of course, are the two rookie wings the Clippers brought with them to Orlando, while McGruder is a more established veteran who has disappointed for the team after being an under-the-radar value signing last summer. The three of them make up a contingent of perimeter reserves who will support the Clippers’ continuing efforts to load manage Kawhi Leonard and limit the burden on their other core perimeter players as everyone’s body slowly returns to full conditioning. Beyond that, they make up the potential emergency players for Doc Rivers–like when someone rolls an ankle to start the fourth quarter of a playoff game and Doc Rivers needs a reserve to hold down the fort for two minutes before a starter can come back in to close the game.

Right now, you’d imagine that Rodney McGruder holds the advantage among these three. He’s the guy who is probably most likely to fill in for Landry Shamet until the sharpshooting guard can arrive safely in Orlando, as well as get rotation minutes on any nights when Leonard sits out. But given McGruder’s poor performances through much of the season, you have to imagine that he has something to prove in Orlando–and something to lose if either rookie shows competence and energy. The potential for either a McGruder redemption arc, or surprising emergence from one of the Clippers’ rookie wings, is what I’ll be keeping close tabs on in these scrimmages.

L.A. Clippers: What to Watch for in the Orlando Scrimmages
Lucas Hann