Now that the Clippers’ 2020 season has reached its disappointing end, 213Hoops will work through the roster player-by-player for our “Exit Interview” series. Today’s exit interview features superstar Kawhi Leonard.
Basic Information
Height: 6’7″
Weight: 225 lbs
Position: Small Forward
Age: 29
Years in NBA: 9
Key Stats: In 57 regular-season appearances, Leonard played 32.4 minutes per game and averaged 27.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1.8 steals, and 2.6 turnovers while shooting 47% from the field and 37.8% from deep.
In the playoffs, he played 39.3 minutes per game and averaged 28.2 points, 9.3 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 2.3 steals, and 2.5 turnovers per game while shooting 48.9% from the field and 32.9% from three.
Contract Status: Leonard has a guaranteed contract for $34,379,100 next season, with a player option for $36 million in 2021-22. He is expected to opt out next summer, when he will be eligible for the larger 35% maximum salary as a player with 10 or more years of experience. Because Leonard will have only been with the Clippers for two seasons, they will have his “early bird” rights instead of full bird rights, meaning that while they are the only team that can offer him 8% raises, they cannot offer him an additional 5th year on his contract. Depending on how long Leonard plans to play, he could opt for a LeBron James-inspired “1+1” contract next summer that would allow him to enter free agency again in 2022 and sign the full five-year max with the Clippers.
Expectations
More than any individual production benchmarks, there was one clear metric that reigned supreme in the LA Clippers’ pursuit of Kawhi Leonard in free agency last summer: 2x NBA Finals MVP. In 7 healthy NBA seasons (excluding 2017-18, when he played just 9 games for the Spurs) before joining the Clippers, Leonard had made the conference finals five times, the NBA Finals three times, and won the NBA Championship twice, with Leonard voted Finals MVP both times.
A lot of times, when we evaluate players in the NBA, we hedge: “he can be the best player on a team, but he’s really a #2 guy on a playoff team or a #3 guy on title team.” This is the case with Paul George, who would almost certainly be the best player on the majority of NBA rosters but is trying to prove that he can win a title as a #2 in LA. Kawhi Leonard has an incredible rare all-around package of skills that have not only earned him the designation of “best player on a championship team”–but earned him that designation twice, on two different teams. The Clippers’ expectation in going all-in to land Leonard was clear: a belief that the feat could be repeated yet again.
With that expectation of postseason glory came some regular season concessions, most notably the now-infamous “load management.” Leonard, who deals with a recurring–and sometimes referred to as degenerative–quadricep injury, has noted that taking care of his body is his biggest priority. It’s crucial not only for team success (“My health is no. 1 and that’s gonna make us a better team”) but also for his life after basketball: “I just want to be able to walk strong when I’m done playing this game. My son motivates me to keep playing. Once he gets to the age to play basketball, I want to be able to play with him still.”
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Reality
There isn’t much to say other than that the Clippers’ failures are Leonard’s failures, regardless of his individual production. His playoff numbers–39.3 minutes, 28.2 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 5.5 assists per game–were individually beyond reproach, but being a “best player on a championship team” guy means that your individual statistical profile isn’t enough. You have to make your team better by lifting them in the biggest moments.
Leonard had just 14 points on 6-22 shooting in the team’s game 7 elimination at the hands of the Denver Nuggets. When they blew a big lead in game 6, he managed just 11 points on 3-10 shooting. Those moments have to be weighed against his his successes–he broke 30 points 7 times in the team’s 13 games (and had 2 additional 29-point games) and lifted the team to many of their playoff wins. But he also failed to shoot 30% from the field in two of the team’s four losses to Denver after having just one such night during his entire 2019 title run in an inconsequential first-round game against the Orlando Magic. In fact, Leonard has only shot under 30% from the field in eight playoff games over the course of his career (in 124 total outings), and three of those came during his rookie season in San Antonio. This year was the first time it’s happened twice in a playoff run in his career since then.
It would, of course, be absurd to suggest that Leonard is solely at fault for the Clippers’ elimination. Paul George had his own struggles. Patrick Beverley couldn’t stay on the court due to foul trouble. Lou Williams and Landry Shamet couldn’t hit a shot in the second round. Marcus Morris lost his match-up with Paul Millsap. Montrezl Harrell brought awfulness that tanked the team on both ends whenever he played–and Doc Rivers continued playing him anyway. This wasn’t a case where the stars aligned for the Clippers’ supporting cast and Leonard came up short. It would be a lot more accurate to describe it as a perfect storm of struggles that Leonard couldn’t quite bail them out of.
But that’s the standard that Leonard is held to when he’s won two Finals MVPs and a franchise builds their entire organization around him, including trading virtually every asset in the war chest to bring Paul George on board at Leonard’s behest. That “best player on a championship team” label means the Clippers simply need more from Kawhi next season just as they most certainly need more from their coaching staff and supporting cast. That doesn’t mean sacrificing Leonard’s crucial load management regimen, but it means more leadership on a nightly basis, and ultimately it will have to mean stronger performances in the biggest moments if the Clippers are to realize their championship aspirations.
Future with Clippers
I don’t think either the Clippers or Leonard are inclined to overreact to some mutual disappointment–but even if they were, a divorce wouldn’t be easy. The two are far more entangled than Leonard was with the Raptors last season.
The Clippers, for their part, already made the call a year ago to go all-in on Kawhi. You don’t fold when all of your chips are already in the middle of the table. But depending on their read on Leonard, they have to balance building the best possible roster around him for next season with a medium-term approach covering the next 3-5 years.
Kawhi has a player option next summer which he’ll almost certainly exercise, putting him into free agency. Whether or not he’ll actually take meetings and consider leaving the Clippers remains to be seen, but the Clippers have several advantages. The largest is location: Leonard signed with the team in the first place largely because he wanted to live at home in Southern California surrounded by his family and friends. The Clippers also have a money advantage–while they won’t have Leonard’s full bird rights to offer him an extra fifth year on his contract, they can give him 8% raises compared to 5% from other teams. And, if Kawhi wants to play into his mid-30s, his most lucrative path by far would be signing a one-year deal with the Clippers next summer and then getting that five-year maximum deal when the team has his his full bird rights in 2022.
It would also be fascinating to see how a market shapes up for Leonard next summer. As long as he and Paul George are together, the Clippers will be in the conversation to contend for an NBA title. As far as competitive rosters go, the Los Angeles Lakers would have to part with LeBron James to make a Leonard addition feasible. The Toronto Raptors would have to miss out on Giannis Antetokounmpo. Either move would have a significant negative impact on his legacy after he chose the Clippers over those two teams in 2019 free agency. And if the Clippers flare out in the playoffs again, teams will start to have serious questions about Leonard’s load management, long-term health, and ability to replicate his 2014 and 2019 Finals MVP runs.
There are too many variables to have more than a hunch about Leonard’s future beyond the 2020-21 NBA season–and that makes it all the more crucial for both team and player to make the most of their chances in the upcoming campaign. Succeeding together is the best-case scenario for both parties.
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