Are you a Clippers fan who isn’t sure who to root for in the NBA’s August 12th bubble games? You’re in the right place.
With each team playing just eight “seeding games” in Orlando before the playoffs begin, there’s limited time to both battle for playoff positioning as well as build momentum after a four-month layoff. That means that, while we obviously want the Clippers to be successful, Clippers fans can’t just pay attention to LAC–nearly every game played in the NBA over this two-week span is important to the playoff picture.
Tuesday was full of action in the race for the Western Conference play-in tournament, with all four competing teams playing. Plus, the Houston Rockets picked up a crucial loss that give the Clippers a lot more control over how the standings will unfold this week.
The NBA’s August 12th Bubble Games
All times Pacific time.
Indiana Pacers vs Houston Rockets, 1:00pm, NBATV
Rooting for: Indiana Pacers
The NBA’s August 12th bubble games tip off later than most days, but with a game we’ll definitely want to keep our eyes on. After the Rockets’ loss to the Spurs Tuesday, the Clippers have clinched a top-3 seed and Houston’s chances of moving up from 4th have been greatly reduced. Still, Houston can pass Denver if the right combination of things happen. The Rockets winning both of their remaining games, this one and their finale against Philadelphia on Friday, is part of that formula.
So, we’d be thrilled to see Houston drop this one. The Rockets can no longer fall to 6th, thanks to some losses from Utah and Oklahoma City, so another loss guarantees they’ll find themselves in the 4-5 match-up. That means they’d face the Lakers in the second round, and that’s the match-up we’ve been trying to engineer all along.
The other way to block Houston out would be a Nuggets win. Denver’s last two games Wednesday night against the Clippers and Friday afternoon against Toronto. We’ll talk about that Clippers-Nuggets match-up in a minute.
Toronto Raptors vs Philadelphia 76ers, 3:30pm, ESPN
Rooting for: Toronto Raptors
Right now, Miami is in 4th place in the East with a narrow lead over Philly and Indiana. Of those three teams, Miami is the best challenger for the Milwaukee Bucks, but there’s really no easy way to separate Indiana and Philadelphia. The Sixers are more talented, but consistently disappoint, while the Pacers have played better but don’t have the star power or experience to inspire confidence deep in the playoffs.
I’m going with a Philly loss here, since it would help secure Miami’s 4-5 finish. The Heat have a head-to-head with Indiana remaining, so there’s a (very unlikely) scenario where Miami falls all the way to 6th. A Philly loss eliminates that scenario. In reality, though, this is the least significant of the NBA’s August 12th bubble games.
Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder
Rooting for: Miami Heat
Same reasoning here re: Miami–we want them to lock up 4th (or 5th, there’s no difference on a neutral court). For Oklahoma City, there’s a small chance that the Thunder could slip from 5th and find themselves in the 3-6 match-up instead–which might be preferable, as the beat-up Denver Nuggets look a bit less scary than the Houston Rockets right now.
But currently in 6th are the Utah Jazz, and nobody wants to avoid Houston more than them. Losing this one isn’t enough for OKC to fall to 6th, as they’d also need to lose to the Clippers on Friday and the Jazz would need to win Thursday against San Antonio. My gut tells me that if OKC drops this game to Miami, then Utah rests their guys tomorrow night.
To recap a discussion from previous days, we’d rather see OKC drop to 6th because they’d give Denver a tough first-round series, hopefully leading to an LAC rest advantage in the second round, while Houston should have an easy time with Utah, minimizing the Lakers’ rest advantage in the second round.
You might ask, since OKC losing here likely means Utah giving the Spurs a free win tomorrow, why we wouldn’t want an OKC win. The domino effect says OKC win means Utah trying harder against the Spurs which means better odds of Portland and/or Phoenix making the play-in tournament over the Spurs. But the reality is that SAS-UTA is an elimination game for the Spurs, and the Jazz will either be locked into 6th or need to lose to avoid 5th (and Houston), so the Spurs should win either way. It’ll be up to Portland and Phoenix to take care of business (and hopefully Memphis to lose).
LA Clippers vs Denver Nuggets, 6:00pm, ESPN
Rooting for: LA Clippers if Houston loses to Indiana, Denver Nuggets if Houston beats Indiana
This is clearly the most impactful of the NBA’s August 12th bubble games–but that doesn’t mean we want the Clippers to win it.
If the Houston Rockets lose their afternoon game to the Indiana Pacers, then the Clippers and Nuggets are locked in to the 2-3 match-up. In that case, the Clippers should beat Denver, clinch 2nd place, and guarantee their first-round match-up with the Dallas Mavericks. The Clippers are 3-0 against the Mavs this season, winning by an average of 11 points. The loss would lock Denver in to 3rd place, most likely facing the Utah Jazz (reference back to our 5-6 OKC-Utah discussion above).
If the Rockets win, however–and it sounds like they will, as Russell Westbrook, James Harden and Eric Gordon are all expected to play and the Pacers are resting players–then I’m going to switch perspectives here and hope that the Clippers pull their starters early and concede this game to Denver. Let’s explore this scenario a bit more.
The Nuggets’ win over LAC would clinch a top-3 seed, meaning Houston would be locked in 4th regardless of what happens on the final night of the season. Remember, Houston’s Tuesday loss clinched a top-3 seed for LAC, so there’s no peril for the Clippers to slide into the Lakers’ side of the bracket. Even after losing to Denver, the Clippers are in control for the 2-seed, they just wouldn’t have clinched it yet. LA would need either a win on Friday against Oklahoma City or a Nuggets loss on Friday to Toronto to finish 2nd. The Nuggets play before the Clippers, meaning LAC would know by tip-off if they need the victory to clinch, allowing them to make an informed choice regarding match-ups.
In order for Denver to pass the Clippers, they’d need to beat Toronto Friday and the Oklahoma City Thunder would need to beat LA. Unlikely, but certainly possible. Losing to Denver means eliminating the possibility of Houston rising to 3rd, at a cost of creating a possibility for Denver to pass LAC for 2nd. So, what are the ramifications of falling to 3rd?
The Dallas Mavericks are guaranteed to finish 7th, so the 2nd seed will automatically play them. Falling to third means a different first-round opponent–but it can only possibly be the Jazz, not the Thunder. Like I said above, Utah could still potentially move ahead of OKC in the standings–but that requires OKC to lose both of their remaining games. If OKC loses to the Clippers, LAC clinches 2nd. If OKC beats the Clippers, OKC clinches 5th. The two cannot meet in the first round this year.
So, the real question is if a 3-6 series vs Utah is better or worse than a 2-7 series vs Dallas. Remember, there’s no home-court advantage inside the bubble, and Bojan Bogdanovic is out for the Jazz–they’re just 2-5 in bubble play so far. While the Clippers have been very successful against the Mavericks this season, the Mavs have been more competitive (but still not great) in the bubble. Frankly, I don’t feel a strong preference for either opponent, which is why I would prioritize helping Denver clinch finishing above Houston to set up LAL-HOU in the second round.
Let me summarize (assuming Houston beats Indiana today):
If Denver beats the Clippers Wednesday, and Denver beats Toronto Friday, and Oklahoma City beats the Clippers Friday, LAC plays Utah in the 3-6.
If Denver beats the Clippers Wednesday and Friday yields any other combination of outcomes, LAC plays Dallas in the 2-7.
If the Clippers beat Denver Wednesday, and Toronto beats Denver Friday, and Houston beats Philadelphia Friday, LAC plays Dallas in the 2-7 and Houston passes Denver for 3rd.
If the Clippers beat Denver Wednesday and Friday yields any other combination of outcomes, LAC plays Dallas in the 2-7 and Denver holds on to 3rd.
Tuesday’s Games
Brooklyn Nets 108, Orlando Magic 96
We were rooting for: Orlando Magic
These teams were wise and chose not to beat up on each other, since both have uphill battles ahead of them in the first round. Brooklyn plays Toronto in the 2-7 while Orlando will face Milwaukee in the 1-8.
Houston Rockets 105, San Antonio Spurs 123
We were rooting for: San Antonio Spurs
This was the most important result for the Clippers, who clinched a top-3 seed with this Houston loss. Remember the above scenarios for what can happen if the Clippers beat or lose to Denver? If Houston had won this game, LAC beating Denver would put Houston in the driver’s seat for 3rd, while Denver beating LAC would have opened the door for the Clippers to slide all the way to 4th if they lost to Oklahoma City on Friday. This was a huge sigh of relief.
The Spurs, on the other hand, are still alive–but they need help. All four teams competing for the 8/9 play-in in the Western Conference have 4 games left. The Spurs are in back of that bunch. So, not only do they need to beat Utah on Thursday–they need at least two of Portland, Memphis, and Phoenix to lose in their finales as well. A loss Thursday eliminates them outright.
Phoenix Suns 130, Philadelphia 76ers 117
We were rooting for: Phoenix Suns
The Suns have been the hottest team in Orlando, and improved to 7-0 with this win. They conclude their seeding games Thursday afternoon against the Dallas Mavericks, in a game that means nothing for Dallas and could feature rest on the Mavs’ side. For Phoenix, a loss means elimination. A win keeps them alive, and needing either a Portland loss to Brooklyn Thursday evening or a Grizzlies loss to Milwaukee Thursday afternoon to move into 9th. If both Portland and Memphis lose, Phoenix could rise all the way to 8th, with 9th falling to either the Spurs (if they beat Utah) or the Blazers (if Utah beats the Spurs).
Philly’s tragic number (Philly losses or Indiana wins before the Sixers are guaranteed to finish 6th behind Indiana) is now just 1.
Boston Celtics 122, Memphis Grizzlies 107
We were rooting for: Boston Celtics
It feels bad to beat up on the Grizzlies, an exciting young team that played hard and well all season long. But they’ve been bad in the bubble, and with this loss fell to 1-6. They’re without Jaren Jackson Jr., likely their best player. Portland and Phoenix are simply the two teams that have been the most compelling in the bubble and would make for the most competitive play-in tournament.
But Memphis’ success throughout the year while other teams struggled has left them in the position to make the play-in regardless of their bubble struggles. They lost here to a Boston team that played its starters in a meaningless game, where competitors have gotten free wins. It’s a bad break.
The Grizzlies’ final game now comes against Milwaukee on Thursday. If they win, they’re guaranteed a spot in the play-in tournament, despite going just 2-6. If Portland also wins their finale, the Blazers will be 8th to Memphis’ 9th. If Portland loses, Memphis would be 8th to either Phoenix (with a Suns win), San Antonio (with a Suns loss and a Spurs win), or Portland (with a Suns loss and a Spurs loss).
If Memphis loses, their chances of a play-in spot plummet. Their only hope would be to finish 9th to Portland’s 8th (regardless of if the Blazers win or lose their finale), and in order to do so they would need the Spurs and Suns to each lose.
Portland Trail Blazers 134, Dallas Mavericks 131
We were rooting for: Portland Trail Blazers
Wow. Wow. What a fun game. Seriously, if you missed it, try to go re-watch the fourth quarter. Damian Lillard scored sixty-one points and the Mavericks made a late-game barrage of their own to keep it close.
For Dallas, this loss locks them in to the 7th seed. For the Blazers, it keeps a play-in berth likely instead of leaving them needing a lot of help from other teams. Portland now controls their own destiny for the 8th seed–if they beat the Nets on Thursday, they’ll be 8th outright.
If they lose, they’ll need 2/3 of Phoenix, Memphis, and San Antonio to lose as well. In essence, that means it’s another must-win for Dame and the Blazers.
Milwaukee Bucks vs Washington Wizards
New Orleans Pelicans vs Sacramento Kings
We were rooting for: taking the night off…
…And that’s what I’m doing! Both of these games have no standings implications, so I’m going to go ahead and publish this article before they finish. Two notes, though:
Giannis Antetokounmpo was ejected early in Bucks-Wizards for headhunting Moe Wagner. He’ll likely be suspended–but it’s unclear how many games, or if it will apply to the playoffs or to the start next season. My guess, based on precedent, is 1-2 games.
Former Clipper Sindarius Thornwell was signed by the Pelicans as a replacement player before the bubble began, and hasn’t gotten many minutes as the Pelicans tried to make the play-in tournament. But now that they’re eliminated and resting their stars, Sin got second-unit minutes in this one and played quite well. It would be great to see him land on a roster next season.
Stay tuned in to 213Hoops every day of the NBA’s Orlando Bubble for a new Rooting Interests.
Check out the spreadsheet for updated seeding scenarios.
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