When a team goes from a surprising underdog story to the NBA’s championship favorites, quite a few things change. Perhaps the most prevalent of these changes is the microscopic criticism that each and every player is placed under. We have seen this happen to many players on the Clippers, but none more than Lou Williams. We went from “Lou Williams is a legend” to “Do the Clippers have a Lou Williams problem?” in no time flat.
Lou was the leader of last year’s team that surprised everybody by not only making the playoffs, but taking two games off of the juggernaut Warriors. Both in that series and in the regular season, Lou led the Clippers in PPG, APG, and USG%. He had the ball in his hands far more than any other Clipper, and that’s the way it was drawn up. He was the guy. Night in and night out, Lou found a way to get it done for a squad that lacked top-tier star power.
Fast forward just a year later, and many across the league are questioning whether or not the Clippers have a “Lou Williams problem.” This stems from the reality that I mentioned earlier, where each and every player on a perceived contender is subject to intense criticism. Often times this criticism is overblown and lacking statistical support, and when it comes to Lou, that is indeed the case. While there are questions that need to be answered, the idea that the Clippers have a “Lou Williams problem” is simply wishful thinking from the opposition.
As expected, Lou has seen a decrease in his role this season. With the additions of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, such a development was guaranteed to happen, but context is essential when examining Lou’s downgraded role on the Clippers. On the surface, it does not look like much has changed with Lou and his role on the team. His 15.2 FGA per game last season are only down to 14.7 FGA per game this season. While Lou isn’t the first option on the roster anymore, he does play the majority of his minutes as the first option. Only 250 of Lou’s minutes this season have come with both Kawhi and PG on the floor, while 750 of them have come with both Kawhi and PG off the floor. This is why his total FGA per game has hardly changed from last season to this season.
It takes a little more statistical digging to find the actual decrease in Lou’s role, because while it may not seem like much has changed on the surface, it is the magnitude of Lou’s role that has seen the biggest decrease.
Last season, Lou was 2nd in the NBA in FGA in the 4th quarter, only behind LeBron James. His late game dominance was well covered, as he seemed to always find a way to get it done in the clutch. It was mentioned earlier that his total FGA per game have hardly changed, but rather the magnitude of these shots that have seen the biggest decrease. The stats support this, because Lou went from 2nd in the NBA in 4th quarter FGA (6.0) last season to 17th (4.6) in that same category this season.
Lou’s 4th quarter magic last season was not only impressive because of how and where he was doing it, but because it ranked amongst the NBA’s biggest stars. His 7.6 PPG in the 4th quarter ranked 5th in the entire NBA, only behind LeBron, Harden, Kemba, and Giannis. As previously mentioned, his 4th quarter FGA’s have taken a hit with the addition of Kawhi and PG, but what is remarkable about Lou is that a decreased role has not meant decreased production.
Lou’s ability to come through in the clutch has not decreased one bit from last season’s historic campaign. In the 2018-19 season, Lou averaged 2.8 PPG in the clutch on 45.9% from the field and 37.5% from deep. Despite playing along two superstars this season, Lou is still averaging 2.8 PPG in the clutch, but he’s doing it on better efficiency. His 47.8% from the floor and 42.1% clip from deep in the clutch both rank higher than his marks last season. He is no longer the main option, but that hasn’t caused his clutch time production to go down one bit.
The NBA considers clutch time the last five minutes of a game with the score within five points. As good as Lou is in those spots, he gets even better when the stakes get higher. In the last minute of games separated by five points or less, Lou is 8/12 from the field and 4/6 from deep this season. Among all players who took at least 12 of these shots, Lou’s 66.7% from the field was the best in the entire NBA.
Scoring the ball is far from Lou’s only offensive capability. What separates him from a guy like Jamal Crawford is his playmaking ability. This season Lou averaged 5.7 APG, making him the only player to do so while starting less than 10 games. This is just one of the many reasons why Lou is so valuable to this Clippers team, despite what the narrative might suggest.
Until this point, everything that has been discussed is been relative to Lou’s on ball dominance; however, since the addition of Reggie Jackson, Lou has seen an increased amount of time off the ball. The duo of Lou Williams and Reggie Jackson logged 112 minutes together before the season was suspended. They boasted a 121.7 ORTG, 98.8 DRTG, and 22.9 total NTRG. That NTRG was the highest among any Clippers’ duo that played at least 100 minutes together.
Perhaps the biggest reason why this duo thrived the way it did was because of how good Lou Williams is off the ball. This season, Lou knocked down 42.5% of his catch and shoot threes. Since the addition of Reggie Jackson, that clip ascended to an insane 60% mark.
Quite a bit has been explored thus far, and all of it has been about Lou’s offensive dominance; however, the reason why many consider the Clippers to have a “Lou Williams problem” is because of his poor defense. When Clipper fans talk about Lou’s clutch time offensive dominance, a Clippers hater will counter with his clutch time defensive weaknesses. These are real concerns, but they have real answers.
Unsurprisingly, Lou is one of the Clippers’ worst defensive players. His 106.6 DRTG is 2nd worst on the team, only behind Shamet. There are multiple ways the Clippers can handle Lou’s poor defense, and the first is to monitor who he is playing alongside. While Lou’s near 107 DRTG is 2nd worst on the team, when he’s playing alongside Pat Bev, it drops to a 102.0 mark. When Kawhi is added into the mix, the trio of Lou, Bev, and Kawhi has a 92.7 DRTG. That is a very stellar mark, and in fact, of every 3-man lineup that has played at least 240 minutes together this season, the trio of Lou, Bev, and Kawhi, has the 4th best DRTG.
If having Lou alongside Bev and Kawhi doesn’t tank the defense, then why is Lou’s individual DRTG so poor? The answer is that the guard and forward he plays the majority of his minutes alongside are not Kawhi and Bev, but rather Shamet and JaMychal Green. For reference, Lou has logged 876 minutes alongside Green, and 754 minutes alongside Shamet. In comparison, he’s played 719 minutes alongside Kawhi, and just 535 alongside Pat Bev. The answer to why this is the case is obvious: Lou comes off the bench, so he will naturally play more minutes alongside other reserves. However, the difference in his ability to hide defensively with Kawhi and Bev on the floor as opposed to when they’re off the floor is staggering.
It was mentioned earlier that the trio of Bev, Lou, and Kawhi have a stellar DRTG of 92.7; however, the trio Lou, Sham, and J-Myke have a DRTG of 105.5. While that isn’t awful, it is significantly worse than the mark put up by Bev, Lou, and Kawhi. This is why I don’t think Lou’s defense in the payoffs is going to be as big of an issue as it’s being made out to be. Come playoff time, there will hardly be any full bench lineups. Instead, one or both of Kawhi and PG will be on the floor at all times. Alongside those two, Lou has a 99.3 DRTG, which is once again a stellar mark.
While these are advanced stats, they tell a simple story. When Lou is playing alongside multiple elite defenders, he is able to hide on defense. When he is paired with other mediocre to poor defenders, that is not the case. Come playoff time, the majority of Lou’s minutes will no longer come without one or both of Kawhi and PG on the floor. This is a very real and statistically supported way for the Clippers to mitigate Lou’s poor defense, but it is not the only way that they can do so.
What about the game against the Lakers? The Clippers were fully healthy, yet LeBron still exposed Lou. Yes, yes he did. First, Laker fans, LeBron did not make some groundbreaking discovery about Lou’s poor defense. He did a great job at exploiting it, but he is far from the first player to do so. Regardless, this is obviously a problem for the Clippers. In order to hoist the Larry O.B. trophy, they almost certainly have to go through LeBron and the Lakers. While Lou’s defense is problematic, it isn’t the fatal flaw that it has been made out to be.
It was previously mentioned that there are multiple ways for the Clippers to mitigate Lou’s poor defense. The first was to pair him with elite defenders. The Clippers have done that, but it did not work against LeBron and the Lakers; however, the solution to this problem is simple. Take Lou off the floor. Lou is great. He can take over games, make big shots, and is undeniably clutch; however, with the way this roster is constructed, the Clippers don’t need him out there at all times. If Lou is being abused defensively by somebody like LeBron, he does not need to be out there.
Lou’s likely replacement in the closing lineup would be Patrick Beverley. Against the Lakers this season, Bev had a 98.4 DRTG, while Lou’s was 102.5. Unsurprisingly, Pat Bev is defensively superior to Lou Williams. With the offensive firepower that the Clippers have, it allows them to sacrifice Lou’s offensive ability late in games for a better defensive option like Pat Bev. What makes this such an easy decision for the Clippers is that what Bev brings offensively is far superior to what most would believe. Bev actually had a higher ORTG than Lou this season. While that can largely be attributed to Bev playing more minutes alongside Kawhi and PG than Lou did, there is truth to the idea that Bev is underrated offensively.
Pat Bev is perfect for the role he plays alongside two ball dominant superstars. He shoots 42% on his wide-open threes, which are shots he is likely to get, and 40% on catch and shoot threes, which are also shots he frequently see. This idea that the Clippers swapping Lou for Bev late in games is a massive drop-off offensively is simply false. Pat Bev is a fantastic offensive player, and is perfect alongside Kawhi and PG.
Regardless of what the numbers show, the Clippers don’t need three closers out there every night. While it is a luxury to have multiple guys who can close out a game, if one of them is getting exposed on the other end, replacing him with a better defensive option is the correct move. Do the Clippers have a Lou Williams problem? I think not. Come playoff time, I trust Doc will make the right call.
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