With training camp just one week away, it’s time to start our annual player previews – first up, Clippers’ starting point guard James Harden.
Basic Information
Height: 6’5”
Weight: 220 pounds
Position: Point Guard
Age: 35
Years in NBA: 15
Regular Season Stats: Averaged 16.6 points, 5.1 rebounds, 8.5 assists, and 1.1 steals in 34.3 minutes per game in 72 games played (all starts) on 42.8/38.1/87.8 shooting splits (61.2 True Shooting)
Playoff Stats: Averaged 21.2 points, 4.5 rebounds, 8.0 assists, and 1.0 steals in 40.3 minutes per game in 6 games played (all starts) on 44.9/38.3/90.6 shooting splits (61.6 True Shooting)
Contract Status: Signed a two-year, $70M deal this offseason
Expectations
James Harden is locked in as the Clippers’ starting point guard and second-best player this season with the departures of Russell Westbrook and Paul George (he was both of those things last year, but there were minor disputes from corners of the internet/media/fandom about them). He is going to have to carry a mighty load on offense, as the departures of those players and the addition of Derrick Jones Jr., Kris Dunn, and Nic Batum means the Clippers have swung their role players in a more defense-focused direction. Harden is the best creator and passer on the team, and in the games Kawhi Leonard will miss (reported to be more this season due to his injuries last year) he is going to be the alpha and omega of the Clippers’ offense.
Strengths
It’s not hyperbole to say James Harden is one of the best passers and playmakers in NBA history. His 7,629 assists rank 4th among active players and 14th in league history, and that honestly might undersell him slightly. Harden can make every conceivable pass out of the pick and roll, and has run that play so many times and has such an advanced knowledge of defensive coverages that he’s frequently multiple steps ahead of the defense. There are not many players who can singlehandedly guarantee a competent NBA offense as a baseline floor, and Harden is one of them. When the ball is in his hands on offense, generally good things will happen.
The other primary skill in Harden’s Hall-of-Fame level toolbelt is his shooting. With 2,940 threes made in his career, Harden ranks third all time behind Steph Curry and Ray Allen, and will pass Allen sometime in the next year or two. Harden is most famous for his off-the-dribble threes, specifically his stepbacks, and that is indeed an incredible weapon. However, over the past couple years, as he’s adjusted to life as a co-star rather than the superstar, he’s also shown that he’s a very capable shooter off the catch. As long as Harden’s shooting remains at the level it’s been at, he’s a dangerous player when he gets hot.
The final strength that has unlocked Harden’s game is his ability to get downhill. His strength, first step, and footwork kept him at the rim (and the foul line) for most of his prime, with defenders simply unable to stay in front of him. That driving is what allowed his passing to flourish, as he produced seemingly endless drive-and-kicks for three as well as lob dunks to the likes of Dwight Howard and Clint Capela. Racking up free throws maintained Harden’s pristine efficiency despite taking a lot of very difficult shots, and while his free throw rate has dropped the past couple years, it’s still well above average for an NBA guard. He knows all the tricks of the trade, and remains a force when going downhill.
Weaknesses
James Harden’s longest standing weakness is his defense. A capable enough defender in his youth, Harden has for most of his career been a below-average defender, more due to inattentiveness than incapability. For much of his prime Harden had to carry such a massive load on offense that he more or less rested on defense, and old habits die hard. Harden isn’t awful on defense – he’s big, strong, and is good at snagging steals – but his feet are cement blocks when moving laterally and he is not usually on top of things when off-ball. He’s much better guarding bigger players where he can use his strength, which is one of the reasons why the Derrick Jones Jr. addition (a bigger player who is great at defending guards) is such a perfect fit on defense. Still, the Clippers will have to cover for Harden on that end.
Harden was once one of the NBA’s most durable players. From 2013 on, he played in 78, 73, 81, 82, 81, 72, 78, and 68 (in the COVID-shortened 2020 season) games, a remarkable feat for a star player averaging 36 to 39 minutes per game throughout that span. Since then, he has played in 44, 65, 58, and 72 games – not terrible durability, but not amazing either. Aged 35, and with more minutes played than all but five other players in the NBA, asking for 70+ games at 34+ minutes per game is probably asking for too much. And, if Harden goes down, the Clippers truly have nobody who can replace what he can do on offense. It’s a heavy burden for someone who at this stage should be scaling down (as he was the past couple years) rather than back up. Let’s hope Harden doesn’t crack under it.
Despite what I mentioned up above about Harden’s driving, there are some reasons to be concerned. His three-point rate (percentage of total shots that are threes) was 0.594 last season, the highest mark of his career by a decent margin. Harden’s 0.418 free throw rate, while still good, was the second-lowest of his career ahead of just his rookie season. Finally, just 14.4% of Harden’s shots came at the rim, by far a career low. In short, he’s settling for more and more jumpers and getting downhill less and less. While the shooting and playmaking are still there, if Harden loses the driving and free throws he probably won’t be a consistent 20-point scorer anymore – unless he returns to some of the midrange game of his youth. The efficiency will drop, and there will be a lot more nights of under 15 points.
Summary
James Harden was an All-Star level player last year for the Clippers, and even factoring in a tougher team situation and another year of age, there’s no real reason to expect much slippage this year. Even if he falls from the 30th best player in the NBA to the 40th, he will still easily be worth the $35M the Clippers paid him this summer. And, if he’s better than that and somehow helps power the Clippers to a playoff berth, there could be one final big payday in the Beard’s future.
