Sure, most of Monday’s games didn’t go our way as the 2020 NBA Playoffs got started, but the most important thing was the Clippers’ 118-110 win over the Mavericks that gave them a 1-0 series lead. With LA’s opener behind us and another quadruple-header on the slate, let’s take a look at our rooting interests for Tuesday’s first-round NBA Playoff games.
2020 NBA Playoffs, Round 1, Game 1, Day 2
All times Pacific Time.
Orlando Magic vs Milwaukee Bucks, 10:30am, TNT
Rooting for: Orlando Magic
Lucas’ prediction: Bucks in 4
What to watch for: Milwaukee’s rotations
Okay, I gotta admit, of all four of Tuesday’s first-round NBA playoff games, this is the one I care the least about. Rooting for Orlando is simple: Milwaukee is the best team in the East, and any losses (or elimination, though that won’t be in play until the later rounds) help weaken the Clippers’ most likely Finals opponent.
Picking a Bucks sweep is equally simple. They’re a class (or several) above the Magic, who have some nice pieces but don’t come together to form anything resembling a dynamic, competitive basketball team. Unlike 7-seed Brooklyn, Orlando isn’t young, spunky, or unknown. They’re just mediocre.
There isn’t even anything really going on in this series that you really think is a significant test of the Bucks where we can learn much about them. If the Philadelphia 76ers had made the 4-5 series, I could try to stretch here and say Milwaukee’s coverage of Vucevic could be a preview of how the Bucks might try to handle Joel Embiid, but with Philly in the 3-6, the Bucks are unlikely to see Embiid this post-season.
So, hopefully now that the games count, Milwaukee will at least give us a glimpse of their actual playoff rotation and lineups. I don’t think there will be surprises or revelations, but it’ll be nice to get a feel for what they’ll do later in the playoffs after they treated their seeding games like exhibition games and spread minutes around liberally.
Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers, 1:00pm, TNT
Rooting for: Miami Heat
Lucas’ prediction: Heat in 6
What to watch for: Miami’s firepower
The Heat actually had an above-average offense this year in terms of efficiency, but their extremely slow pace leaves them with just an average nightly scoring output. Indiana is also a bottom-third team in pace, meaning the Heat can stay comfortable in the first round–but they’re staring down the barrel of a second-round date with the Milwaukee Bucks, who have not only the league’s best record but its highest pace.
Milwaukee scored 120 or more points 34 times this season; Miami did it 20 times. The Heat also had 10 games with 100 or fewer points, where Milwaukee only had 4. To have any shot, the Heat are going to have to have a mixture of success at both slowing the Bucks down as well as showing more offensive firepower than they typically showed this year. I’m watching to see how successfully Miami’s offense can unlock their army of shooters–most notably Duncan Robinson, but also Jae Crowder, Meyers Leonard, Kelly Olynyk, Tyler Herro, and Goran Dragic–and come up with a higher volume of three point attempts (they’re 9th in 3PA/g this season) to match their second-best 3pt% as a team.
That’s not to overlook Indiana, who I really like–but with Victor Oladipo not himself and Domantas Sabonis out of the lineup, I just don’t see the “TJ Warren flamethrower” strategy being sustainable through a playoff series.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets, 3:30pm, TNT
Rooting for: Houston Rockets
Lucas’ prediction: Rockets in 6
What to watch for: can Houston play Steven Adams off the floor?
My sincerest apologies to the Oklahoma City Clippers, but this isn’t much a choice: the winner here will face the Los Angeles Lakers in the second round, and the Rockets are miles ahead in terms of challenging–and potentially upsetting–the top seed in the Western Conference.
Houston’s chances in this series are complicated by Russell Westbrook’s injury, but I don’t buy the Thunder being able to consistently outscore James Harden’s crew. Still, you can never take a team with Chris Paul and Steven Adams lightly in the playoffs–they’re not gonna quit. Add in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Dennis Schroder, and Danilo Gallinari, and the Thunder are definitely going to compete.
But the Thunder are thin–like, thin is a nice word for the lack of rotation-quality players on their bench–and the Rockets play a small, up-tempo style that could wear OKC out and limit play time for Adams and Nerlens Noel, two of OKC’s best six players. That’s what I’ll be watching for here, as a possible indicator of whether Dwight Howard and JaVale McGee will be able to play against Houston in the second round, or be played off the floor.
Portland Trail Blazers vs Los Angeles Lakers, 6:00pm, TNT
Rooting for: Portland Trail Blazers
Lucas’ Prediction: Lakers in 5
What to watch for: LA’s guard rotation–and defense
Well, after weeks of hoping that Portland would get into the Western Conference play-in tournament and challenge the Lakers in the 1-8 series, we finally got it. Portland even climbed all the way to 8th and won on the first night of the play-in tournament, giving them a much needed two-day rest before this game 1.
Now, it’s time for them to get trounced by the Lakers. While Los Angeles isn’t super well equipped to handle high-scoring guards like Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, they still have serviceable perimeter defenders like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Danny Green. The Blazers can boast no such thing at the forward positions, where they’ll have to use a combination of Gary Trent Jr., Carmelo Anthony, Zach Collins, and Jusuf Nurkic on LeBron James and Anthony Davis. There aren’t good options there.
While a Portland upset would be fun and hilarious, we aren’t actually counting on them winning 4/7 against the Lakers. But if they can steal a game, or at least play the Lakers competitively and force James and Davis to play higher minutes, it’ll at least minimize the amount of rest LAL has heading into the second round.
That’ll do it for Today’s Rooting Interests–since the same 4 match-ups are repeating every other day, I think I’ll discuss Monday’s results on Wednesday, when we take our next look at that group of games.
Enjoy Tuesday’s first-round NBA playoff games! I know I will.
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