Two days of the NBA Playoffs are behind us, with two big upsets, as both 8 seeds were able to claim game 1 wins against their top-seeded opponents.
During the Playoffs, Rooting Interests will move to every other day, breaking down each of the eight first-round series as the league completes batches of games.
Let’s take a loot at how game 1 went across the league, and how our predictions (can the 8 seeds claim more wins?) and key themes are faring (sorted by game 2 start time, all times Pacific Time):
East 2. Toronto Raptors 1, 7. Brooklyn Nets 0
Game 2: Wednesday at 10:30am, NBATV
Game 1: Raptors beat Nets, 134-110
We’re rooting for: Brooklyn Nets
Lucas’ prediction: Raptors in 5
What we’re watching for: Toronto’s intensity
The Raptors answered my question about their intensity in a fairly resounding way, coming out early in game 1 and taking a huge lead against the Brooklyn Nets. The Raptors didn’t keep up that level for 48 minutes, but it’s hard to keep sharp focus when you’re winning a blowout.
Brooklyn might still steal a game with a hot shooting night, but right now, the Raptors have to look up the standings and feel good about where they are in their process vs where the Bucks are in theirs.
West 3. Denver Nuggets 1, 6. Utah Jazz 0
Game 2: Wednesday at 1:00pm, TNT
Game 1: Nuggets beat Jazz, 135-125 (OT)
We’re rooting for: Utah Jazz
Lucas’ prediction: Nuggets in 6
What we’re watching for: Denver’s wing rotation
The knock on Utah coming in to this series was their lack of firepower, and it was borne out in game 1. Yes, they scored 125 points–but they had 5 bonus minutes and got a historic 57 points from Donovan Mitchell. This should have been the perfect storm that allowed the Jazz to steal a game. Losing it isn’t a good sign for the rest of the series, though Mike Conley’s likely return for game 3 could help.
The Nuggets held off Mitchell by shooting 22-41 (53.7%) from deep. They normally take 31 a game and shoot 36%. As far as monitoring their wing rotation goes, they played some two-guard with Monte Morris and Jamal Murray on the court together, Torrey Craig fouled out, and neither Michael Porter Jr or Paul Millsap had a great night. The most impressive forward for Denver was Jerami Grant, who is not only a solid defender for the Nuggets to employ but has been scoring efficiently in the bubble as well. Grant has scored 18 or more points 15 times this season–6 of those, including game 1, have come in the bubble.
East 3. Boston Celtics 1, 6. Philadelphia 76ers 0
Game 2: Wednesday at 3:30pm, TNT
Game 1: Celtics beat Sixers, 109-101
Rooting for: Boston Celtics
Lucas’ prediction: Celtics in 6
What we’re watching for: Joel Embiid
Embiid had a great game 1, but the Sixers are just so dysfunctional that he’s going to need to do more than 26 points and 16 rebounds. The 5 turnovers (compared to just 1 assist) and 5 fouls didn’t help. This series should stay competitive, but the Sixers will need a combination of more scoring from Embiid and a better answer when he’s off the floor if they want to start coming away with wins.
West 2. LA Clippers 1, 7. Dallas Mavericks 0
Game 2: Wednesday at 6:00pm, TNT
Game 1: Clippers beat Mavericks, 118-110
Rooting for: LA Clippers
Lucas’ Prediction: Clippers in 4
What we’re watching for: Zubac’s minutes
There’s been a lot said about this game–from our podcast to our game recap to my five takeaways from the game–so I’ll just make a note on our key theme: Zubac was excellent, with 10 points and 10 rebounds in just 22 minutes. Maybe he played less down the stretch because Kristaps Porzingis was out, but it was disappointing to not see more of him in the second half. Hopefully he plays more as the series goes on.
East 4. Indiana Pacers 0, 5. Miami Heat 1
Game 2: Thursday at 10:00am, ESPN
Game 1: Heat beat Pacers, 113-101
Rooting for: Miami Heat
Lucas’ prediction: Heat in 6
What we’re watching for: Miami’s firepower
The Heat had an average night shooting the ball, and held Indiana’s below-average offense to just 101 points. I really like the addition of Dragic to Miami’s starting lineup and think he gives them offensive creation, shooting, and a scoring punch that has a chance to open them up for more explosive scoring nights when the shots are falling. There’s a compelling case that Miami’s offense could be potent in the playoffs.
For the Pacers, Victor Oladipo played just 9 minutes after getting banged up early, and it looks like they simply don’t have the talent with him and Sabonis out of the picture to win a series against a team like Miami. But the Pacers are still solid, and they have an identity as a team that makes them unlikely to fold, so they’ll still force the Heat to beat them rather than rolling over and giving Miami a free series.
West 4. Houston Rockets vs 5. Oklahoma City Thunder
Game 2: Thursday at 12:30pm, ESPN
Game 1: Rockets beat Thunder, 123-108
Rooting for: Houston Rockets
Lucas’ prediction: Rockets in 6
What we’re watching for: can Houston play Steven Adams off the floor?
I wouldn’t say that the Rockets played Adams off of the floor in game 1–he played quite well in his 28 minutes (as you’d expect him to against Houston’s lack of bigs), finishing with 17 points and 12 rebounds. But the Rockets were able to outscore Adams in those minutes, as he finished with a -3, and they eviscerated Nerlens Noel, who had 4 fouls and went -11 in just 8 minutes.
We’ll see how this evolves as the series goes on, but as far as this series goes, I don’t see it for OKC. The firepower disparity is great. Chris Paul and co. should give the Thunder a fighting chance in most games, and they’ll leave Houston with some bumps and bruises, but I’m not sure if this one actually ends up going 6.
East 1. Milwaukee Bucks 0, 8. Orlando Magic 1
Game 2: Thursday at 3:00pm, ESPN
Game 1: Magic beat Bucks, 122-110
Rooting for: Orlando Magic
Lucas’ original prediction: Bucks in 4
Lucas’ new prediction: Bucks in 5
What we’re watching for: Milwaukee’s rotation
I wanted to see what it would look like when Milwaukee sharpened their playoff rotation after treating the seeding games like exhibition games. Apparently the NBA Playoffs first round isn’t a big enough stage for the Bucks to take seriously, either. Going 10-deep isn’t necessarily a crime, but at a certain point you have to buckle down and give bigger minutes to your best players. Khris Middleton, the Bucks’ second-best player, played just 31 minutes while Donte DiVincenzo played 13 off the bench.
I suspect that this will be a bit of a wakeup call for the Bucks, who are a much, much superior team to the Magic. If it isn’t, Milwaukee could still win this round, but they’ll need to be better against higher-quality teams.
West 1. Los Angeles Lakers 0, 8. Portland Trail Blazers 1
Game 2: Thursday at 6:00pm, ESPN
Game 1: Trail Blazers beat Lakers, 100-93
Rooting for: Portland Trail Blazers
Lucas’ original prediction: Lakers in 5
Lucas’ new prediction: Lakers in 6
What we’re watching for: LA’s guard rotation–and defense
Milwaukee wasn’t alone: both 8 seeds would claim wins on Tuesday.
The Lakers’ problem wasn’t their guard defense (they didn’t do a great job against Dame and CJ, who combined for 55 points–but also if Dame and CJ are only combining for 55 then there’s no way Portland should win the game), it was the inability of their guards to create offense.
LeBron James had 23 points, 17 rebounds, and 16 assists, his first career playoff 20-15-15 game. The rest of the team combined for 6 assists. James and Davis couldn’t score if they weren’t at the rim or free throw line (and good lord did Anthony Davis get a friendly whistle in game 1). Other than them, only Danny Green and Kyle Kuzma could score at all–and inefficiently, combining to shoot 9-26 from the field and 3-13 from deep. LAL was a putrid 5-32 from deep, and it wasn’t a uniquely awful outing as they shot worse from deep in two of their seeding games.
The Lakers only played six seeding games that mattered (game 7 was against the Denver Nuggets who were clearly not trying to win down the stretch, and game 8 was a non-contest where the Lakers lost by 14 to the Kings). In those six games, they failed to score 100 points 3 times. You aren’t winning many NBA games in 2020 with under 100 points.
I still don’t have it in my heart to pick Portland to actually win this series, but I’m adjusting my pick from 5 to 6. I expected the Blazers to steal one game where Dame went ballistic and Portland scored in the 130 range. I still do.
That’ll do it for our rundown of the NBA Playoffs first round game 2s, upcoming Wednesday and Thursday this week. It should be an exciting couple of games, as both 8 seeds have already been able to claim wins.
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