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Montrezl Harrell Max

I think Montrezl is gonna get the max. Two reasons:

  • Look at his per 36 box stats and compare it to similar players
  • Look at his win share data

His per 36 box stats are almost identical to Pascal Siakam. While pascal didn't have a great year this year, he is still really good and got the max last offseason. 

Montrezl's per minute win shares is 21st best. Even at the center position, guys like Embiid who have gotten recent maxes have fewer win shares per minutes. 

One question is whether or not Montrezl's efficiency will dip if he took on a starting role. If that were the case, then maybe he isn't quite worth the max. But, if his production keeps up I think the Clips pay him 25% of the cap this year. 

........whoof, this isn't going to age really poorly when he signs somewhere else for like $12M/yr.  Or, if on the astronomically low chance that you're right, I'm gonna be really, really pissed at the Clips FO and lose a lot of faith in them.

One way to think about this is that in order for Trez to get a max offer, there needs to be two teams willing to give it to him--or at least one willing to give it to him, and another willing to get close. Otherwise, no team is going to bid against themselves.

Looking around the league at where there's money, I don't see anyone who'd be willing to give him such a deal, and even if the Clippers were (I don't think they are), they'd be bidding against themselves. I do think Trez might end up making a little more than folks now expect after his bad playoff run, possibly still in the 15M range with a team like Charlotte, but even the Hornets might look around, see that nobody else is offering him more than 12M, and be a little tougher in negotiations.

The Clippers shouldn't play ball with Trez at any price point, but if he gets an offer in the teens it makes the choice easy.