Providing a player preview for Jay Scrubb is tricky–he doesn’t project to have much of a 2021 season in the NBA. If we’re going to see him, it’ll be in future years.
Basic Information
Height: 6’6″
Weight: 220
Position: SG/SF
Age: 20
Years in NBA: Rookie
Key Stats: As a junior college sophomore, averaged 21.9 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 2.7 assists, winning National Junior College Player of the Year.
Contract Status: After being selected with the 55th overall pick as part of the Clippers’ 3-team trade that sent Landry Shamet to Brooklyn and brought Luke Kennard to LA, Scrubb signed a two-way contract.
Expectations
Right now? Absolutely none. Contenders don’t exactly draft for impact in the 50s–in fact, most players taken in this range don’t have NBA careers at all. You also don’t necessarily expect contributions from first-year players who weren’t even playing NCAA D1 (or top-flight European) basketball the year prior. Scrubb’s long-term upside is tantalizing–The Athletic’s Sam Amick loosely suggested that if Jay had gone to Louisville this season instead of staying in the draft that he could have worked his way into the first round conversation as a senior in two years. But even on draft night, it would have been foolish to expect anything more than G-League and garbage time contributions from him as a 20-year-old rookie taken in the late 2nd round and making a massive jump from junior college to the NBA.
Then came the injury news–Scrubb had to have a pin inserted in his right foot, costing him 3-4 months of his rookie year. As hard as that transition from junior college to the world’s best professional league was going to be to begin with–on a stacked team with title aspirations, no less–it would be next to impossible without training camp, pre-season, and early year reps to acclimate to the pace and physicality of NBA play. So, while Scrubb will return with some time left in the season, he’ll just be working on conditioning while still well short of making an NBA impact in terms of ability and comfort. That’s okay. He’s 20, he was a late 2nd, he has clear upside, and he isn’t even taking up a full roster spot or counting against the hard cap. After this redshirt year, it’ll be like the Clippers having a bonus draft pick next season, when they will have their own 1st rounder but no 2nd.
Strengths
Scrubb is extremely athletic and clearly has loads of talent on the offensive end of the floor, scoring essentially at will in junior college. While we can scoff at the level he was playing at compared to other prospects, it’s still not easy to put up the numbers he put up at the level he was playing at–hence the national player of the year award. There’s a lot of work to be done to get him to an NBA level once he’s healthy, but it’s a gamble the Clippers were more than willing to take as part of their new focus on player development given their lack of draft assets in upcoming years.
Weaknesses
Even without the foot surgery, there just isn’t much you can be confident about Scrubb replicating at the NBA level. His strengths–like how he deployed his athleticism on offense–will be tested like they never were before. It’s common for superb athletes to struggle when they reach the league and are facing other superb athletes every night in practice. Nobody in junior college could match Scrubb’s size, movement, and skill. Plenty of guys in the NBA will be able to.
Once he’s proven that his strengths translate well enough to make him a viable NBA prospect, we can actually start to have a conversation about weaknesses and what he needs to do to go from “potential NBA player” to “NBA rotation player.” Right now, he’s still more of a potential potential NBA player–he could be a guy who could be a guy. That’s not to say that I’m down on Scrubb, or dislike the pick, or think he isn’t going to pan out. It’s just being realistic about the work players selected at 55th overall have to do in the early years (if they even get years, for many it’s just months or weeks) of their careers to prove they belong.
Summary
As a rookie, Scrubb will largely be out of sight and out of mind for Clippers fans. We may see a debut in late-season garbage time and get a chance to evaluate him firsthand (or we might get G-League minutes depending on when he’s back and if/when Agua Caliente’s games are played), but this year is a wash for the rookie. It’s a year to watch practices, forge connections in the locker room, watch film with coaches, and sit on the bench during games, absorbing every bit of knowledge he can about the team and Ty Lue’s program. Once we get out of this season–however it ends for LAC–Scrubb will deploy that knowledge to give him a head start in the fight for a roster spot on next year’s team.
