My preview of the 2027 NBA season continues with a look at the Southwest Division, home to the 2026 Finals runner-ups, multiple very intriguing young teams, and the laughingstock Pelicans.
San Antonio Spurs
Additions: Tobias Harris, Jayden Quaintance (20th pick in 2026 Draft), Tarris Reed (26th pick in 2026 Draft)
Subtractions: Kelly Olynyk, Lindy Waters III, Bismack Biyombo, Mason Plumlee
Other: Signed Victor Wembanyama to a five-year max extension, Re-signed Harrison Barnes, Re-signed Julian Champagnie, Re-signed Jordan McLaughlin
Outlook: The Spurs are one of the teams I was most wrong on last season. I did not foresee Victor Wembanyama becoming probably the best per-minute player in the NBA in year three, nor did I expect a massive second-year jump from Stephon Castle, nor did I think Dylan Harper would immediately be a starting-level player in his rookie season. The scariest thing for the rest of the NBA is that all of those players are still at the points in their careers where further major leaps are quite possible if not likely. The only thing holding the Spurs back from being a lock to win 65+ games is the health of Wemby: players of his size are just always going to be more prone to missing time, and the Spurs have (rightfully) been extremely cautious with him throughout his career. Even so, the Spurs have enough talent on their roster to make up for some Wemby absences, and I like what they did in the offseason and the draft in adding big man swings as well as strengthening/retaining their forward depth. I currently have the Spurs as title favorites as well as favorites to lead the Western Conference in wins. They are terrifying.
Prediction: 63-19 (Last year predicted 39-43, actually 62-20)
Houston Rockets
Additions: Marcus Smart, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Julian Phillips, Bruce Thornton (31st pick in 2026 Draft)
Subtractions: Josh Okogie, Aaron Holiday, Dorian Finney-Smith, Jeff Green
Other: Signed Amen Thompson to a five-year extension, Signed Tari Eason to a four-year extension
Outlook: The Rockets are one of the teams I feel more confident in this season: to me, they are the definition of a solid playoff team without true championship upside. Kevin Durant is still great on the court, Alperen Sengun is a fine second option (I think he’s probably better suited as a third banana), Amen Thompson is one of the best perimeter defenders in the sport, and there are a bunch of complementary role players to fill in gaps. A lot depends on Fred VanVleet, who missed all of last season due to injury and is a very undersized guard getting close to his mid-30s. If he can return to a sub All-Star level of play the Rockets will be much more dangerous. If not, it’s hard to see this team having enough offensive firepower to be a contender, barring leaps from their young guys. The Rockets’ defense and rebounding should be top-tier, and that should be enough for them to easily secure a playoff spot.
Prediction: 51-31 (Last year predicted 56-26, actually 52-30)
Dallas Mavericks
Additions: Morez Johnson (9th pick in 2026 Draft), Santi Aldama, Zaccharie Risacher, Sergio de Larrea (25th pick in 2026 Draft), Marcus Sasser, Tarik Biberovic
Subtractions: Klay Thompson, Marvin Bagley III, Brandon Williams, Khris Middleton, Ryan Nembhard
Other: Re-signed Moussa Cisse
Outlook: This offseason the Mavs continued to reshape their roster around reigning Rookie of the Year Cooper Flagg and move on from the remnants of the short-lived Anthony Davis era. The Mavs do have a lot of talent, but it is an ill-fitting roster that features a large proportion of forwards and very few guards. If Kyrie Irving, who is in his mid-30s and missed all of last season while recovering from knee surgery – does not look like star-level Kyrie, this team probably won’t have enough creation juice to be very good. The other swing piece is fourth-year center Dereck Lively II, who looked like a future star after his rookie year but has barely played the last two seasons due to injury. There is real upside for the Mavs: a big second-year leap from Flagg plus healthy-ish seasons from Kyrie and Lively could place them in the upper tier of the play-in race in the Western Conference. I’m not quite that high on the Mavs, but I do think they have significantly more overall talent than the teams below them in the Conference, and should ultimately place in the back half of the play-in.
Prediction: 36-46 (Last year predicted 44-38, actually 26-56)
Memphis Grizzlies
Additions: Cam Boozer (3rd pick in 2026 Draft), Jerami Grant, Quinten Post, Isaiah Stewart, Karim Lopez (21st pick in 2026 Draft), Kris Murray
Subtractions: Ja Morant, Santi Aldama, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Brandon Clarke (RIP), Rayan Rupert
Other:
Outlook: The Grizzlies finally pulled the plug on the Ja Morant era this offseason, sending the former superstar to Portland for a return bereft of draft assets or young players. The minimal return for Ja has to sting much, much less considering the Grizzlies’ fortune in drafting Cam Boozer at 3rd in the loaded 2026 Draft. Boozer (to me, anyway) is a true franchise foundational piece that can be a lodestar for the Grizzlies for the next decade. Add in Cedric Coward, Zach Edey, Jaylen Wells, and some competent veterans and you have a very promising young team. I do think the Grizzlies will be bad this year just due to how young their team is, and especially because I need to see Edey stay healthy for a full season before penciling in the leap that many are predicting. Still, they should be league pass darlings, and it would not surprise me at all if Boozer is good enough right away to drag this team into the bottom of the play-in race.
Prediction: 29-53 (Last year predicted 42-40, actually 25-57)
New Orleans Pelicans
Additions: Bennedict Mathurin, AJ Johnson, Taj Gibson
Subtractions: Kevon Looney, Jordan Hawkins, Micah Peavy
Other: Re-signed De’Andre Jordan
Outlook: One of the worst teams in the NBA last year, the Pelicans, shockingly, made almost no moves this offseason outside of retaining veteran locker room presence DeAndre Jordan and buying low on restricted free agent Bennedict Mathurin. Even though I’m not a fan of Mathurin, he’s a good upside swing for the Pelicans, who need as much talent as they can get. Dejounte Murray will be healthy to start this season, unlike last year, which will help, and Derik Queen and Jeremiah Fears having a year of NBA play under their belt could also make them more impactful. But, at the end of the day, this team was awful last year, and even if they’re a bit more competent this season, there’s not much to indicate they will be anything other than bottom-dwellers yet again.
Prediction: 25-57 (Last year predicted 27-55, actually 26-56)
