My preview of the 2025 NBA season continues with the Northwest Division, which might have the three best teams and the two worst teams in the Western Conference.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Additions: Isaiah Hartenstein, Alex Caruso, Nikola Topic (11th pick of 2024 Draft), Dillon Jones (26th pick of 2024 Draft), Ajay Mitchell (two-way), Alex Ducas (two-way)
Subtractions: Josh Giddey, Gordon Hayward, Mike Muscala, Lindy Waters III, Bismack Biyombo, Olivier Sarr
Other: Re-signed Isaiah Joe to a 4 year $48M deal, Re-signed Aaron Wiggins to a 5 year $47M deal
Outlook: The Thunder, coming off a breakout season where they won the Western Conference (in the regular season) and got to Game 6 of the second round, did not sit on their laurels. Instead, they went out and fixed their weaknesses, moving on from Josh Giddey (virtually unplayable in the playoffs) for a proven 3 and D guard in Alex Caruso and signing Isaiah Hartenstein to add more size and toughness in the frontcourt. The Thunder are deep, young, have great chemistry, are led by one of the NBA’s best young coaches in Mark Daigneault, and have a perennial MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. They are going to win a vast majority of their regular season games, and will be a real threat to win the Conference. And that’s not even including potential steps forward from young guys like Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and Cason Wallace. The final cherry on top is that the Thunder have a million picks still, enabling them to make moves during the season too. They’re coming for the title.
Prediction: 61-21 (Last year predicted 43-39, actually 57-25)
Denver Nuggets
Additions: Russell Westbrook, Dario Saric, Da’Ron Holmes (22nd pick in 2024 Draft), Trey Alexander (two-way), Spencer Jones (two-way), PJ Hall (two-way)
Subtractions: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Reggie Jackson, Justin Holiday, Collin Gillespie, Jay Huff, Braxton Key
Other: Signed Jamal Murray to a 4 year $208M extension, Re-signed DeAndre Jordan
Outlook: The Nuggets had a pretty bad summer, losing starter Kentavious Caldwell-Pope for nothing, dumping Reggie Jackson’s small-ish contract at the cost of three second-round picks, and losing first-round rookie Da’Ron Holmes for the season due to a knee injury suffered in Summer League. I still have them winning over 50 games for two reasons: Nikola Jokic and altitude. The Nuggets have a very high floor with Jokic, the best player in the NBA, on their team, and they will always win a ton of games at home. Combine that with what should still be a pretty good starting five even with Christian Braun or Julian Strawther replacing KCP and a solid head coach in Michael Malone and you have a regular season wins machine. Still, it’s tough to see this team winning four playoff series with their shaky depth (especially in the frontcourt) barring breakout seasons from multiple of Braun, Strawther, or Peyton Watson. It’s tough to count out Jokic, but they have gone down a step from two years ago.
Prediction: 52-30 (Last year predicted 54-28, actually 57-25)
Minnesota Timberwolves
Additions: Rob Dillingham (8th pick of 2024 Draft), Terrence Shannon Jr. (23rd pick of 2024 Draft), Joe Ingles, PJ Dozier, Jesse Edwards (two-way)
Subtractions: Kyle Anderson, Monte Morris, Josh Minott, Jordan McLaughlin, TJ Warren
Other: Re-signed Luka Garza
Outlook: The Wolves had a breakthrough last season, making it all the way to the Western Conference Finals for the first time in franchise history behind a league-best defense and a rising star in Anthony Edwards. They are likely to be very good again this year with a similar combination. The upside for the Wolves is simple: that Edwards, already a terrific player, will truly rise to superstar-level in impact. They have other avenues to upside, like Jaden McDaniels taking a leap, or rookies Rob Dillingham and Terrence Shannon Jr. having strong debut seasons. But I do think that between Kyle Anderson leaving, Mike Conley being 37 years old with no clear replacement (its too early to expect Dillingham to step into that role), and Rudy Gobert being 32, there’s more downside than upside here. The Wolves might still make a deep playoff run, and I do think their regular season floor is high, but they could prove me wrong either way. A very interesting team to watch.
Prediction: 51-31 (Last year predicted 45-37, actually 56-26)
Utah Jazz
Additions: Cody Williams (10th pick in 2024 Draft), Isaiah Collier (29th pick in 2024 Draft), Kyle Filipowski (32nd pick in 2024 Draft), Patty Mills, Svi Mykhailiuk, Drew Eubanks, Oscar Tshiebwe (two-way)
Subtractions: Kris Dunn, Talen Horton-Tucker, Omer Yurtseven, Luka Samanic, Jason Preston, Kenneth Lofton Jr., Micah Potter
Other: Signed Lauri Markkanen to a 5 year $238M extension
Outlook: The Jazz are finally leaning into a tank, having moved on from a great deal of their veterans over the past two years. They did sign Lauri Markkanen to a massive extension, which is a bit of an odd move – he’s not good enough to be the best player on a great team and loses a lot of his value on this new deal – unless they think he’ll still be movable next summer. The rest of the vets remaining on the roster – Collin Sexton, Jordan Clarkson, John Collins – appear to be available, and will probably get moved during the season. Keyonte George had a promising rookie season and Taylor Hendricks had some flashes towards the end of his, but outside of Markkanen there are no sure things on this roster. I have them ahead of the Blazers because of Lauri and the vast gap in coaching between Will Hardy (awesome) and Chauncey Billups (abysmal), but it’s very possible the Jazz are worse than this and head straight to the bottom of the lottery.
Prediction: 27-55 (Last year predicted 33-49, actually 31-51)
Portland Trailblazers
Additions: Deni Avdija, Donovan Clingan (7th pick in 2024 Draft), Bryce McGowens (two-way)
Subtractions: Malcolm Brogdon, Ibou Badji, Moses Brown
Other:
Outlook: The Blazers actually made some moves I liked this summer, including drafting Donovan Clingan (maybe the highest floor prospect in the draft) at 7 and trading for Deni Avdija (competent starting wing who is still young). Unfortunately, their roster still doesn’t have a ton of veteran talent, and a lot of the talent they do have doesn’t fit together. The Blazers have three centers who need playing time in Clingan, DeAndre Ayton, and Robert Williams III – yet those guys can’t play together at all. Similarly, their three talented perimeter youngsters, Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, and Anfernee Simons, are all incompatible on the court. Maybe a trade – Simons, one of Ayton or Williams, and Jerami Grant – could clear up the roster a bit, but right now it’s messy. And in the Western Conference, a young roster with a lot of overlap won’t win much, even with a good bit of raw upside and some competent vets.
Prediction: 26-56 (Last year predicted 27-55, actually 21-61)
