The NBA trade deadline is just eight days away, and things are quiet. The Clippers have had some rumors swirling around them as the trade deadline approaches, but nothing seems too solid. Reports of the Clippers’ needing a point guard are reappearing yet again, there is worry about Paul George’s elbow injury, and there is twitter discussion about the potential for a CJ McCollum move. Piecing everything together is tough, but let’s try to cut through some of the miasma and figure out what’s going on with the Clippers as the trade deadline approaches.
First, the biggest story of the Clippers’ season all year long has been the pending return of Kawhi Leonard. Close to a month ago, Yahoo Sports’ Chris Haynes reported that Leonard had “a strong possibility to return” this season, which is extremely vague but positive. Since then, we’ve heard nothing. In the O’Connor piece mentioned above, he mentioned as a throw-away that Leonard isn’t “scheduled to return until April at the earliest”. While O’Connor isn’t at the level of Woj or Shams, he’s well-sourced, and an April return, well, that would leave five regular season games left. That timeline does check out – he certainly hasn’t been close to a full return or scrimmaging, and one would think it would take weeks of that before Kawhi is ready to play. If the Clippers are in the playoffs, a partial Kawhi return late could be a tremendous boost. If not, it will just be a warm-up for next season.
Speaking of the Clippers being in the playoffs, the hope with the Clippers this season was that Paul George could drag the Clippers to the playoffs, or at least a strong spot in the play-in. The Clippers are 8th in the West right now, but just a hair up on 9th, and while they’re 26-27 overall, they’re 14-12 with PG and 12-15 without him. George was out for a stretch in mid-December, returned for two games, and has been out since. Originally announced with a timeline of a “3-4 weeks”, on January 18 (over 3 weeks) it was announced that a few more weeks would be needed. It’s been two weeks, and no updates have been noted. That’s not ideal. And, while PG won’t require as much of a runway to return as Kawhi, it stands to reason that he’ll need a couple weeks of practice to get up to speed. An optimistic return for George would therefore be after the All-Star Break, and there are rumors he’s done for the year.
So far, what we’ve heard about the trade deadline – Serge Ibaka, Eric Bledsoe, and Marcus Morris being available – checks out. Ibaka is on an expiring deal and is the Clippers’ 3rd center, Bledsoe has a very lightly guaranteed deal next year, is 32, and has been only ok this season, and Morris is 32, has dealt with injuries the past few seasons, and has fallen off on defense. Morris is important to a healthy Clippers’ team, but he’s still a player that could feasibly be upgraded on in the offseason, and the other two are largely superfluous. Still, if the Clippers were aiming to win this year, those guys would probably not be on the trading block, especially Morris and Bledsoe. These are all signs that the Clippers might be without Leonard and George for most of – if not all – the rest of the season.
So, with that being said, what can we expect? Well, trading someone away to clear a roster spot for Amir Coffey – the team’s best player in January, by far – seems like a given. This could be a single dump of Bledsoe or Ibaka to a team with an asset attached, a two-for-one deal for a more useful long-term player, or a move of a more unexpected player for a great return. As mentioned throughout, Ibaka is probably the likeliest to be dealt, as he’s the veteran seemingly least likely to be a key player on next year’s hopefully contending Clippers’ team, despite his locker room presence and positive vibes. Bledsoe is next, as he’s not worth his $19.4M contract next year and his lack of shooting makes him an awkward fit alongside George and Leonard. Despite some rumors, trading Morris for something like a late first doesn’t make a ton of sense unless the Clippers are sure they can upgrade on that spot this summer, or are really not confident in his health going forward.
Something I would not expect is a truly big move (think CJ McCollum or John Wall). Those are trades that would not have much bearing on this season if the Clippers won’t have George or Leonard at all or close to 100%, and would be much easier to make over the summer for cap and asset reasons. If the Clippers are interested in Wall, that deal will be available still in late June around the draft. Similarly, while I think getting a ball-handler with more juice would be great, the Clippers don’t have a need for that this year unless they truly think they’re going on a deep playoff run.
Thus, I’d overall expect something similar to last year, where the only real move was the awful Lou for Rondo deal. The Clippers will probably make a trade or two around the margins of the roster at the trade deadline, clearing out spots to get their young guys more minutes down the stretch and ideally pickup up minor assets that could be used in bigger deals this summer. Still, you never know in the NBA, and if the right trade presents itself, other guys could be on the move too.