I know a lot of people have been curious as to my (and Lucas’) thoughts on the Kawhi Leonard Aspiration story. Well, we did a 40 minute podcast last night that focused almost entirely on the scenario, giving our thoughts on the reporting, our opinions on the matter, and what we think the outcome for the Clippers will be.

Check out the latest episode of TLTJTP on Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. For those with no interest in this off-the-court story, we did a podcast a few weeks ago about Bradley Beal’s fit on the team with Suns reporter Gerald Bourguet, a podcast with Michael Pina of the Ringer on the Clippers’ offseason, and a podcast last week on answering mailbag questions. Leave a 5-star review and give your feedback in the comments below!

TLTJTP: The Kawhi Leonard Aspiration Story
Robert Flom

Our exit interview series on the 2025 Clippers continues with the team’s best player, the injury-troubled Kawhi Leonard.

Basic Information

Height: 6’7

Weight: 225 pounds

Position: Small Forward/Power Forward

Age: 33 (34 in four weeks)

Years in NBA: 14

Key Regular Season Stats: 21.5 points, 3.1 assists, 5.9 rebounds, 1.6 steals, 0.5 blocks, and 1.9 turnovers in 31.9 minutes per game across 37 games played (all starts) on 49.8/41.1/81.0 (5.1 3PA, 3.3 FTA attempts) shooting splits (58.9 True Shooting)

Postseason Stats: 25.0 points, 4.7 assists, 7.6 rebounds, 1.1 steals, 0.7 blocks, and 2.1 turnovers in 37.9 minutes per game across seven games played (all starts) on 53.7/40.5/77.8 shooting splits (5.3 3PA, 5.1 FTA) shooting splits (63.0 True Shooting)

Expectations

Perhaps no player in the entire NBA had a wider range of expectations this year than Kawhi Leonard. Pessimists could realistically say they expected absolutely nothing of Kawhi considering his fiasco at the Olympics and his being ruled out indefinitely before the regular season. Optimists could point to Kawhi’s highly successful 2024 regular season and the Clippers just being cautious in bringing him back, with a plan to have him at a similar level in 2025. People in the middle thought Kawhi would miss some portion of the season, and might not be able to reach similar heights as he did in 2025, but still be a contributor of some kind. At the end of the day, nobody knew what to expect from Kawhi.

Reality

Kawhi missed almost half the season with his knee injury, first appearing in the Clippers’ 35^th game of the year, against the Atlanta Hawks on January 4. He had a slow ramp up period, with his first three games being limited to around 20 minutes per game, his next four being around 24 minutes, and his next four sitting at 28 minutes before getting the bump to around 32. Kawhi also sat most of the Clippers’ back-to-backs until very late in the season, when he played in their last two while the Clippers were making their postseason push.

For the first two months of Kawhi’s season, in January and February, even as his playing time progressed, Kawhi did not seem truly like Kawhi. The per minute production was excellent, and the scoring from midrange was as pure as ever, but Kawhi’s impact was not the same. He wasn’t contributing as much on the glass, the defense was only ok, not great, and he wasn’t getting to the free throw line at all. Concerns grew that Kawhi would not be Kawhi again in 2025.

Things shifted in March, when Kawhi’s averages rose to 25 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. More importantly, his defense took a step forward, and his on-court/off-court stats started to reflect a high-impact player. Kawhi’s ramp-up continued for the rest of the season, as his minutes load was completely removed, and he was even able to play in back-to-backs. All seemed set for a vintage Kawhi performance in the playoffs with the Klaw fully healthy and ready to go.

Unfortunately, that’s not really what the Clippers received. Kawhi put forth a dominant Game 2 effort, one of the best performances of his entire career, and one that primed Clippers fans for more of the same after a disappointing Game 1. Instead, the Clippers just got a merely “very good” Kawhi, who was largely impactful but not a true game-changer. While Kawhi’s stats for the series look mighty impressive, his numbers in the six games outside of Game 2 are markedly less so: field goal percentage drops from 53.7 to 49, three point percentage from 40.5 to 36.6, and FT percentage from 77.8 to 74.2, with points per game falling all the way from 25 to 22.6. There was one game of greatness, and that was all.

The Clippers’ previous four playoff runs (2021-2024) all ended with Kawhi on the sidelines not able to contribute on the court. There was always the “what if Kawhi was healthy” factor looming over the Clippers, which meant a lack of closure on those teams. Well, Kawhi was healthy in 2025, and the Clippers lost anyway. That’s not all on Kawhi, of course – almost every Clipper disappointed in the playoffs. But as the team’s best player, the burden falls heaviest on him. It was a miserable ending to what had been a terrific season for both Kawhi and the Clippers.

Future with Clippers

Kawhi Leonard has two more seasons left on his contract at $50 and $50.3M. The Clippers are in a very interesting position, and Kawhi is at the center of it. The team won 50 games while Kawhi only played 37 games and took the Nuggets to 7 games – who took the champion-favorite Thunder to 7 games. The Clippers could very easily decide to keep their current roster together, run things back, and try another season at competing with this core.

There is the chance that the Clippers will conduct more of a reset this summer. Kawhi is entering his mid-30s. Harden is closing in on his late-30s. Most of the other Clippers’ rotation are somewhere in their 30s as well. There is every chance that the Clippers are worse next year, aren’t as healthy entering the postseason, or just don’t have the same infectious chemistry that carried them to 50 wins this year. Thus, could the Clippers get out ahead of those risks and shake up their roster more this summer? It’s possible.

However, moving Kawhi himself remains unlikely. While he only has two years left on his deal, and is an All-NBA caliber player while healthy, it is doubtful that any team would give up real assets for Kawhi – and the Clippers would only trade him for a haul of some kind. Instead, I’d expect the Clippers to retool around Kawhi, and maybe, finally, get a physical, large power forward next to him to help take some of the defensive and rebounding load off his shoulders. I’d be rather shocked if Kawhi was not on the Clippers next season, which means it will be another year of praying he is healthy come end-of-year.

Clippers 2025 Exit Interviews: Kawhi Leonard
Robert Flom

Our player preview series for the 2025 Clippers continues with Kawhi Leonard, the team’s oft-injured superstar.

Basic Information

Height: 6’7

Weight: 225 pounds

Position: Power forward/Small forward

Age: 33

Years in NBA: 13

Regular Season Stats: 23.7 points, 6.1 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.8 turnovers in 34.3 minutes per game across 68 games played (all starts) on 52.5/41.7/88.5 shooting splits with 62.6% TS

Playoff Stats: 12.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.0 steals, and 2.0 turnovers in 29.5 minutes per game across 2 games played (both starts) on 45.8/0/66.7 shooting splits with 47.4% TS

Contract Status: Signed a three year, $153M extension in January, making $53M this year

Expectations

What even are reasonable expectations for Kawhi Leonard at this point? On one hand, the 2024 season was somewhat of a triumph for Kawhi, who played 68 regular games (his most since 2017) while logging 34.3 minutes per game (the highest of his career) and making the All-NBA Second Team and All Star Game. On the other hand, he was forced out of the end of the regular season due to knee troubles, and barely played in the playoffs at 50% capacity as a result. He had a knee scope this summer, and basically all reporting is indicating he will be back on load management.

Can Kawhi play 60 games at 30+ minutes per game again? At this point, that honestly sounds like a major win for the Clippers. If he does, can he maintain an All-NBA level of play over that extended stretch? That would be massive. The Clippers no longer have Paul George, their depth is not quite as good as it was years ago, and the West has gotten better. If the Clippers don’t get that durability and level of play from Kawhi, they very well might not make the postseason – even if he would be healthy enough to play in it. I think a fair expectation for Kawhi is 55-60 games at an All Star and fringe All NBA level. In this bloggers’ opinion, anything more than that is gravy.

Strengths

It’s a bit wild to say, but after starting his career as an offensively-limited, defense-first player, Kawhi Leonard’s best skill in the NBA right now is his scoring. Not counting his injury-shortened 2018 campaign, Kawhi has averaged at least 21 points per game in each of his last seven seasons and at least 23.5 in his last six. Not only that, but Kawhi scores at volume on excellent efficiency, with only one true shoointg in those seven years being below 60%. He’s a deadly long-range shooter (40.2% on 5.1 attempts as a Clipper), knockdown from midrange, and a strong finisher. The only area where Kawhi is slipping is as a foul-drawer, as his free throw rate of 0.24 last year was his lowest since he made the jump to a legitimate scorer back in 2015. Even if he does get to the line less, there’s no reason Kawhi can’t continue to average 20+ points per game on good efficiency for the next couple of years.

Kawhi is nowhere close to the defensive force he was a decade ago in San Antonio, when some people considered him the best perimeter defender to ever suit up in the NBA. However, he’s still a good defensive player on a game-to-game basis and is considerably better than that for shorter stretches when he can really lock in. Kawhi’s size, length, strength, and disruptive hands are all unchanged, making him a real presence both as a one-on-one defender against wings and forwards and as the “low man” in help situations. When Kawhi was on the court last year, the Clippers were a top five defense and when he was off they were in the bottom five. That says a lot about the impact he continues to have on that end.

Weaknesses

Kawhi’s biggest weakness is undoubtedly durability. As mentioned above, last season was his healthiest regular season since 2017, and even before his leg injuries picked up he only played over 70 games twice. With Kawhi unlikely to play in back-to-backs this year, he will be capped at around 68 games, and that’s not counting missing any other games for injuries, illness, or personal reasons. Your best player being your most unreliable in terms of availability creates a very difficult path for building a team or winning a championship, and ultimately that was the downfall of the 213 era (among other reasons).

If you had to point to one Kawhi weakness on the court, it would be that he’s a subpar playmaker for a number one scoring option. His highest ever assists per game mark was in 2021, at 5.2, and he averaged just 3.6 last year. With Paul George and Russell Westbrook gone that number will definitely go back up, but Kawhi is definitely more of a fine passer than a good one. There will be times he sees passes a hair too late or doesn’t make the read at all. He’s definitely not a ball hog or an awful passer, but it’s just not a natural part of his game, even though he’s worked on it.

Summary

There is no evidence that the Clippers have ever tried to trade Kawhi, nor has there been any real evidence that Kawhi has looked at leaving the Clippers. With Kawhi under contract for three more seasons and his probable lack of trade value even if he or the Clippers wanted to move on, it’s hard to see him not being on the Clippers through 2025. After that, who knows – but Kawhi has won two championships already, and this might be the first season in his entire 14-year career that he’s not on a contending team, so being on a contender might not mean quite as much to him. I would guess Kawhi plays out the year with the Clippers, and I’d bet on him being a Clipper until he retires. Hopefully he’s able to play in a good chunk of games this season and plays at the level we have all come to expect from him, pushing back on the narrative that his career is “cooked”.

Clippers 2024-2025 Player Preview: Kawhi Leonard
Robert Flom

It’s been a while since we have heard from the Clippers leadership, but tonight, with training camp a week off, Lawrence Frank and Ty Lue spoke to the media. Amidst all the usual talk of playing faster, taking more threes, and having a stronger identity, some big news was dropped – Kawhi Leonard had a procedure this offseason on his troublesome knee.

This news might not be as shocking to non-Clippers fans as it is to the Clippers’ faithful. Every time we have heard about Kawhi this offseason it has been a similar story – he has swelling, and it’s going down slower than expected. The slow nature of his recovery seems to be why he was sent home from Team USA before the Olympics. Thus, even though nothing came up on the initial scans in March or April, it seemed very likely that a “scope” would need to be done to see what was going on.

Now, it’s unclear what kind of knee procedure happened and when it occurred (Update: A Shams and Law Murray report is that it happened in May). It can’t have been anything too serious – like an ACL – because there wouldn’t be talk of him doing strengthening drills in training camp. But it’s possible outside of the scope there was some other cleanup surgery done.

It seems that Kawhi’s knee swelling is finally going down – but is not fully gone yet. Lawrence Frank would not commit to Kawhi being ready for the start of the regular season, and if I had to make a prediction, I don’t think he’ll play on opening night. It’s grim news for the first season at the new Intuit Dome, and while I think the Clippers can at least be competitive without Kawhi for a few weeks, they are going to sink in the West standings if he’s out for too long.

In other news, Ty Lue said that starting spots outside of Harden, Kawhi, and Zu are up in the air. The presumed other starters have been Terance Mann and Derrick Jones Jr., but it’s possible Norm Powell, Amir Coffey, Nic Batum, or even Kris Dunn could make their way in as well. It will be interesting to see how the battles for rotation spots shape up in training camp and preseason.

In addition to Kawhi, Trentyn Flowers has a wrist injury and will be out for camp as well. Lawrence Frank also mentioned there were further injuries, but would not specify which players were effected and that updates would be provided as appropriate. Hopefully none are serious, as the Clippers are starting behind the eight-ball as it is. For now, all we can do is wait and see.

Kawhi Leonard had Offseason Knee Surgery
Robert Flom

While the Clippers officially announced most of their free agent signings today, the biggest news of the day was that superstar Kawhi Leonard was taken off the Team USA Olympic team for the 2024 Olympics. He will be replaced by Celtics guard Derrick White.

The official statement by Team USA acknowledged that Kawhi Leonard “felt ready to compete” but that USA Basketball and the Clippers determined it was best for him to prepare himself for the upcoming NBA season. There was also reporting that Kawhi’s camp had expressed concern about his participation in the Olympics.

Kawhi himself said his knee is “neutral” and that it only started feeling better about two weeks ago, which aren’t exactly strongly positive statements considering the injury first popped up back in March over three months ago. An injury without any structural damage lingering that long is not ideal.

All of this adds to a situation where Kawhi might be “healthy” and could play, but is not quite at 100% and thus could be at greater risk of further injury. It seems as though Kawhi wanted to play, but that most of the other involved parties felt it best if he didn’t.

This is a bummer for Kawhi. He hasn’t played in the Olympics, or even for Team USA proper, certainly the best player of his generation who has not done so. By the time of the next Olympics, Kawhi will likely either be retired or not the caliber of player that the Olympic squad will seek. This was his last chance to play for Team USA, and he couldn’t do it. That sucks!

For the Clippers, they can now focus on rest, rehab, and making sure Kawhi is ready for training camp in three months. It seems as though his knee is fine, or close to it, which is good. The question of whether he will ever be able to sustain months of good health with his knees is an open one, and the chances of a deep playoff run seem remote for multiple reasons. Still, hopefully Kawhi is fully ready to go at the start of the 2025 season.

Update: Grant Hill, the managing director of Team USA, has said it was ultimately Team USA’s decision to send Kawhi home, though they were in communication with the Clippers. I’m not sure this really changes much, but it seems very likely the Team USA staff saw things in practice they did not like, and that they felt it best for Kawhi’s health to send him home.

Kawhi Leonard Off Team USA for Paris Olympics
Robert Flom

Our exit interview series on the 2024 Clippers concludes with their superstar, Kawhi Leonard.

Basic Information

Height: 6’7

Weight: 225 pounds

Position: Small Forward/Power Forward

Age: 32 (33 in three weeks)

Years in NBA: 13

Key Regular Season Stats: 23.7 points, 3.6 assists, 6.1 rebounds, 1.6 steals, 0.9 blocks, and 1.8 turnovers in 34.3 minutes per game across 68 games played (all starts) on 52.5/41.7/88.5 (4.9 3PA, 4.2 FTA attempts) shooting splits (62.6 True Shooting)

Postseason Stats: 12.0 points, 2.0 assists, 8.0 rebounds, 2.0 steals, 0.5 blocks, and 2.0 turnovers in 29.5 minutes per game across two games played (both starts) on 45.8/0/66.7 shooting splits (2.5 3PA, 1.5 FTA) shooting splits (47.4 True Shooting)

Expectations

The expectations for Kawhi were the same they’ve been every year he’s been on the Clippers: be the best player on the team. More specifically, after a very good regular season in 2023, the expectation for Kawhi was still to be at “best player on a title level” level player in 2024 while hopefully playing more games. As always, Kawhi was projected to score in the mid-20s on excellent efficiency, provide very good defense, support Zu on the glass, and dish a decent number of assists for extremely well-rounded overall production.

Reality

Like many Clippers, Kawhi’s start to the season – both before and after the Harden trade – wasn’t great. He has notoriously been a bit of a slow starter, and that proved true this year. Just like everyone else on the Clippers, he had to adjust to Harden, and not having the ball in his hands as much.

However, the biggest reason for the Clippers’ surge in December – more than Harden, more than Zu, more than anyone – was Kawhi Leonard played at a legitimate MVP level. In those nine games in December, Kawhi averaged 29.3 points on a bonkers 73.2 True Shooting, adding six rebounds and 4.1 rebounds for good measure. Those numbers slipped a bit in January, but were good enough to have Kawhi making 5^th MVP ballots halfway through the season when the Clippers briefly got to the 1 seed.

Then, like with everything else on the Clippers, things began to fell apart. Just like with Harden, Kawhi’s numbers looked pretty strong in February, but the impact just didn’t quite seem to be there. In March, Kawhi had his worst month of the season, averaging just 22.9 points on 59.9 True Shooting (still very good), and got injured, missing the last few games of the month and then all of April.

Clippers fans braced for the worst with a Kawhi injury late in the season. Still, reporting around the injury was at least reasonably positive, and the news came out before Game 2 against the Mavs that Kawhi would play. Expectations were reasonably muted after Kawhi had missed a month and seemingly rushed back a bit, but Kawhi overall played well enough even though the Clippers lost, scoring 15 points with 7 rebounds and 4 steals in 35 minutes and looking reasonably athletic. If anything, fans were hopeful Kawhi would keep looking better as the series went along.

That was not the case. Kawhi immediately looked stiff and sore in Game 3, operating more as a decoy than as a functioning part of the Clippers game plan. He logged just 25 minutes in a blowout loss, with 9 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 turnovers. It was clear that not only was Kawhi not getting healthier, but that he had backslid. Sure enough, he was ruled out of Game 4, and missed Games 5 and 6 as well. Another premature Clippers’ exit.

Future with Clippers

Kawhi Leonard is the Clipper whose future is most certain. He signed a 3 year, $153M deal midseason when the Clippers were playing great, putting him on the books until he will be close to his late 30s. This is not all the way a good thing for the Clippers. While Kawhi had an awesome regular season and the Clippers want to have him to open Intuit with a superstar-level player, he once again missed most of the postseason, resulting in another Clippers’ disappointment. Thus, the real reason Kawhi will be on the team going forward is that nobody in the NBA can trust his health as a trade target.

Kawhi, rightfully, made Second Team All-NBA. He had an excellent regular season, playing in his most games in a season since his peak in 2017 and playing a solid 34.3 minutes per game. He was, for the most part, healthy. But another late season injury has made the Clippers’ plans for Kawhi to be a serious regular season player untenable. All the indications are that load management will be a thing again for Kawhi going forward. No more playing on back to backs. A lighter minutes load. The whole deal. One thing that would be nice for Kawhi – and the team as a whole – would be if the Clippers could add a true, playable power forward to the team so Kawhi could shift to small forward and accumulate less physical wear and tear.

After five years with Kawhi Leonard, it’s hard to say that the 213 era has been anything but a disappointment, despite the 2021 run for the franchise’s first conference finals. Still, Kawhi will be just 33 next year. He was still an easy All-NBA caliber player this year. If the Clippers are cautious, and push the right buttons, maybe, just maybe, they will be able to nurture Kawhi to a healthy postseason for the first time since 2020.

2024 Clippers Exit Interview: Kawhi Leonard
Robert Flom

The Clippers announced today, out of the blue, that they signed Kawhi Leonard to a three-year extension. The Clippers did not disclose terms, but Adrian Wojnarowski and Shams Charania both put the figure at 3 years, $153 with no player option.

This deal keeps Kawhi Leonard out of free agency and on the Clippers through 2027, when he will be 36 years old. As has already been reported, a primary motivating factor for the Clippers – outside of the obvious, that Kawhi is a superstar player when healthy – is that now Kawhi will be on the Clips for the first few seasons at the new Intuit Dome. The Clippers have their face of the franchise locked up.

Kawhi’s deal starts at $52M in 2024-2025, and then goes down to $50M the next two seasons, per Woj. The first number is the full max of the projected salary cap, while the following two would be somewhat below. This, I suppose, was a “concession” from Kawhi probably for age/injury reasons. The Clippers will still be over the cap then, but it probably helps their pockets a bit with lower tax payments.

There has also been reporting that the Clippers are in talks with Paul George on an extension and both sides are interested in a long-term partnership. So far, PG and Kawhi’s deals have been in lockstep. I’d imagine a three-year extension for George at around the same price (hopefully a bit cheaper but whatever, it’s Ballmer’s tax dollars and he can afford it) will get penned at some point in the near future.

On one hand, this deal does contain some risk. Kawhi has had numerous injury issues and the chance he’s both healthy and playing at his current level in 2027 seem remote. There’s a good chance this deal looks like an albatross in two years.

On the other hand, the Clippers have traded their picks and swaps through 2029 anyway, so a rebuild in the near future is simply not in the cards. Additionally, due to Kawhi’s injury history, its unlikely he’d get a massive return in a trade even if he was on a “friendlier” deal.

Really, this made sense for both sides. Kawhi gets security for the last few years of his prime/post-prime and the Clippers keep their superstar player to ensure some level of competence over the next few seasons. Let’s just enjoy the fact we get to watch Kawhi play for the Clippers for several more years.

Clippers Sign Kawhi Leonard to Three Year Extension
Robert Flom

Our player preview series for the 2024 Clippers season continues with Kawhi Leonard, the Clippers’ best player player.

Basic Information

Height: 6’7″

Weight: 225 pounds

Position: Small Forward

Age: 32

Years in NBA: 13

Key stats: 23.8 points, 6.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 1.4 steals per game on 51.2/41.6/87.1 shooting splits across 52 games.

Contract Status: Third year of a four-year $176,265,152 contract worth $45,640,084 this season.

Expectations

There’s really only one major expectation from Clippers Nation this season regarding Kawhi Leonard, and that’s to stay healthy. For the most part, Leonard was able to do just that last season, the playoffs notwithstanding. The Clippers did their part in managing his minutes and games he played. Sure there were some hiccups along the way, but by and large Kawhi responded with a phenomenal bounce back after missing the entirety of the 2021-22 season.

The Clippers will likely load manage Kawhi Leonard again in 2024, and contrary to popular belief, the Clippers will not be penalized under the NBA’s new resting policy as long as Kawhi’s absences aren’t coinciding with rest for Paul George.

Strengths

When healthy, Leonard is absolutely one of the best players in the league. There’s not much he can’t do on the court. He’s a dominant scoring threat from anywhere. He’s perfected the art of the midrange jumper, but he’s also a great three-point shooter who shot the second-highest percentage in his career from distance last season.

Leonard definitely prefers the face-up and the pull-up jumper, but he can still get to the basket and he did average 5.4 attempts from the free-throw line last season.

He’s even become a fantastic playmaker, and he’s averaged a career-highs in assists throughout his Clippers tenure.

Defensively, he may not be the absolute lockdown defender he once was when he was younger, but he still has the chops on that end. One of his best defensive plays of the season came in Game 1 in the first round of the playoffs against the Phoenix Suns when Leonard effortlessly ripped the ball from Kevin Durant and ran the break himself for an easy finish.

Weaknesses

Availability and health, that’s what the majority of Clippers fans would agree is Leonard’s pressing weakness at the moment. He’s only had one fully healthy complete season and playoff run with the Clippers, and that was the 2019-2020 season that ended in the bubble.

In 2020-21, Leonard suffered an ACL injury in the Western Conference Semifinals against the Utah Jazz that cut his playoff run short. He missed the entire 2021-22 season recovering from said injury. Last year, it was a knee injury following Game 2 against the Suns that sidelined him. Those injuries have been perhaps the reason the Clippers haven’t had more success in the 213 era.

Summary

This will be a key season for Leonard and the Clippers. After this year. they’ll be moving to the new Intuit Dome and Leonard will be able to decline his player option and become a free agent.

Despite the overall lack of availability, there’s always been reason for optimism for Clippers fans when it comes to Leonard. The Clippers looked every bit the part of championship contenders in 2021 before he got hurt against the Jazz. Last season, even without Paul George, with Leonard in the lineup the Clippers looked like they could have beaten the Suns.

Leonard’s presence raises the ceiling of this team in ways few other players can. The Clippers just need a little luck to bounce their way.

Clippers 2023-24 Season Preview: Kawhi Leonard
David Yapkowitz

Our exit interview series on the 2023 Clippers continues with superstar Kawhi Leonard.

Basic Information
Height: 6’7

Weight: 225 pounds

Position: Small Forward

Age: 31

Years in NBA: 12

Key Regular Season Stats: 23.8 points, 3.9 assists, 6.5 rebounds, 1.4 steals, 0.5 blocks, 1.7 turnovers in 33.6 minutes per game across 52 games played (50 starts) on 51.2/41.6/87.1 (4.8 3PA and 5.4 FTA) shooting splits

Postseason Stats: 34.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 2.0 steals, 0.5 blocked shots, 3.0 turnovers in 40 minutes across two games played.

Expectations

Coming off an ACL tear, Clipper Nation was unsure what to realistically expect from Kawhi Leonard to begin the 2022-23 season. There was definitely some optimism considering that from top to bottom the Clippers looked like they had a championship caliber roster.

Prior to Leonard’s injury in Game 4 of the 2021 Western Conference Semifinals, he had been playing some of his best basketball. He was phenomenal in the first round against the Dallas Mavericks helping the Clippers come back from losing the first three home games of the series. After falling behind 0-2 to the Utah Jazz, his play helped the Clippers tie the series up at home. And that’s when the injury struck.

With Leonard being forced to miss the entirety of the 2021-22 season, it was always best for Clippers fans to temper their expectations to start this season as he continued to fully recover from the injury.

Reality

Although patience was going to be critical to begin this season, Clippers fans probably didn’t envision what actually happened. The season started out bizarre and should have been a harbinger of things to come. Leonard came off the bench against the Los Angeles Lakers on the first game of the season and didn’t get into the game until midway through the second quarter.

He sat out the front end of a back to back after that, then missed a big stretch of games as the knee wasn’t responding as well as the team had hoped.

Once Leonard returned, he continued his load management not playing on any back to backs. After starting out the season a bit slowly, as expected, Leonard began working himself back into top shape. There was one weird incident against the Memphis Grizzlies when Leonard, after starting the game, surprisingly sat for the second half. But aside from that, he started looking more and more like the superstar that he is.

Unfortunately for the Clippers, wonky lineups and inconsistent play saw them hovering over .500 for much of the season. The entire mood seemed to be that if they can just get to the playoffs healthy, then they’ll take it from there.

The good news was that by the final two months of the regular season, Leonard was unstoppable. His movement was back. His shot was back. His defense was back. Despite everything the Clippers had endured during the regular season, it was hard not to imagine a strong playoff run with Leonard at his best.

Sure enough, when the postseason rolled around, despite no Paul George, Leonard went toe to toe with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker in the first two games of the first round and Clippers fans started believing again. Bad luck just seems to follow this team though as Leonard suffered a knee injury sometime during Game 2 and ultimately was ruled out for the remainder of the series.

Future with Clippers

Kawhi Leonard still has at least one year left on his contract with the Clippers, possibly two if he decides to use his player option to opt in, in the 2024 offseason. Despite ridiculousness coming from the national media, Leonard isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. The Clippers aren’t going to make any drastic changes before they move to their new arena and they certainly aren’t going to trade Leonard.

The feeling around this team is they just got hit with some unfortunate injury luck once again and that the nucleus is there to win a championship. Should Leonard remain for the duration of this contract, he will hit unrestricted free agency in 2025. Obviously if injury issues continue to persist between now and then, the Clippers are going to have to have some uncomfortable conversations. But as of now, Leonard’s future with the team is not in any peril.

2023 Clippers Exit Interview: Kawhi Leonard
David Yapkowitz

After one of the most frustrating and disappointing seasons in recent Clipper memory, LAC’s front office will look at this off-season as yet another crucial opportunity to turn the undeniable talent that the team has under contract into a team that is capable of winning the NBA Championship. Naturally, there’s nothing that Clippers President of Basketball Operations Lawrence Frank can do this summer that will guarantee that Paul George and Kawhi Leonard will be healthy in the 2024 NBA Playoffs–Leonard has missed the Clippers’ last 3 eliminations while George has missed the last 2; their only healthy finale together was the infamous 2nd round meltdown against the Denver Nuggets in the 2020 NBA bubble under previous head coach Doc Rivers. But when asked about potentially giving Paul George and Kawhi Leonard contract extensions after the team was eliminated in the first round of the 2023 NBA Playoffs, Frank certainly seemed open-minded.

The nature of the Clippers’ failed 2022-23 season means it’s fair to put everything on the table, including moving on from one or both of their superstars. At the same time, it feels safe to say that this Clippers brain trust isn’t going to lean into a full tear-down-and-rebuild project. The Clippers won’t have their own first-round pick until 2027, meaning that they won’t get elite prospects even if they’re bad in the next 3 years, and they’re highly motivated to be winning games and drawing crowds in the Intuit Dome, their new arena opening in fall of 2024. Inevitably, just as moving on from the 213 era could be on the table this summer, the Clippers will also assuredly consider contract extensions for Paul George and Kawhi Leonard to keep their top talent in-house and stay competitive for as long as they are still making payments on the trade that brought George to LA.

Can the Clippers give contract extensions to Paul George and Kawhi Leonard?

Yes. Contracts that are 3-4 years in length can be extended on the 2nd anniversary of signing, while contracts that are 5-6 years in length can be extended on the 3rd anniversary of signing. Leonard signed a 4-year contract to stay with the Clippers in July 2021, meaning that the Clippers could add additional years to his deal during this summer’s free agency period. George’s last deal with LAC was actually itself an extension–a December 2020 agreement that left him with 5 years remaining on his contract. While we’re still half a year short of the 3-year anniversary, the NBA has recognized the way that COVID-19 schedule adjustments to the last few seasons have impacted league business typically done according to a 365-day calendar. George signed his extension after the opening of the free agency period and before the start of the regular season, so I expect the league to consider his contract’s “anniversary” based on where it falls on the league calendar–probably making him extension-eligible again later than Kawhi but not in any meaningful way (late August or early September).

What would extensions for Paul George and Kawhi Leonard look like?

George and Leonard have essentially twin contracts, each due to make $46M next season with player options for $49M the following season. Options can either be declined or accepted as part of an extension, and extended contracts can run for a maximum of 5 total seasons (seasons remaining on the original deal + new seasons added). So, full-length extensions for George and Leonard could push their option dates back to the 2027 off-season, or, if their contracts are fully guaranteed with no options, keep them on the books through the end of the 2027-28 season. Of course, there’s no rule that the contracts have go to for the maximum length; it would certainly make sense for the Clippers to angle to not want to commit major money to George and Leonard for ’27-’28 when the duo will be 38 and 36, respectively, during the 2028 NBA Finals. But from a player’s perspective, of course they want to lock in as much guaranteed money as possible before aging, and in these situations we often see teams choose a potential problem in 5 years (owing someone who has declined a bunch of money) over a real problem right now (not re-signing an All-Star).

Figuring out the exact cost of these extensions isn’t an exact science. Again, of course, the Clippers don’t have to give these guys the most money possible, but haggling with players of this caliber is uncommon, so for our purposes it probably makes the most sense to look at what a maximum deal looks like and then consider if the Clippers need to play hardball or not. These extensions can start at the league maximum salary, whether that’s in 2024 (with the 24-25 player options declined and 4 additional years added) or 2025 (with the options picked up and 3 additional years added). But that’s 35% of the salary cap (or 105% of the previous year’s salary, whichever is greater), and it’s unclear where that cap will land in the next few years, as the newest CBA negotiations seem to have seen the Player’s Association concede roster flexibility tools in exchange for increasing the total pot of money (half of Basketball-Related-Income, or BRI) available to the players. New cap smoothing rules will limit the salary cap increases to 10%, and I think we’ll hit that 10% consistently for the next few years. The salary cap is at $123.7M for the currently ending season, meaning we can estimate $136M for 2023-24, $149.6M for 24-25, and as high as $164.6M for 25-26 (again, it could be less, but with the expanded BRI definition and a new TV rights deal incoming, I doubt it).

Why does that matter? Well, if the cap is $149.6M in the 2024 off-season, Paul and Kawhi’s max would be $52.36M, more than the value of their options, meaning it would make sense for them to opt out and tack on 4 more years. Here’s what that could look like:

Of course, there’s still a lot to work out with this collective bargaining agreement–especially if the nature of cap smoothing, expanded BRI, and a new media deal locks in 10% cap increases for the foreseeable future and bird rights contracts remain capped at 8% annual raises, we could see more and more max contract players opting for short-term deals if their raises aren’t going to keep up with salary cap inflation. The Clippers could always negotiate for fewer years or smaller salaries, or the salary cap increases could be less than I estimated. But still, you get the idea: the Clippers are poised to potentially double down on the 213 era to the tune of well over $500 million dollars this summer after four years together yielded just one conference finals appearance three years ago.

Should the Clippers give Paul George and Kawhi Leonard extensions?

This, of course, is the elephant in the room. As George, who just turned 33, and Leonard, who will turn 32 at the end of June, continue to age, how do we project out their declines after already being unable to get over the hump in their 4 years together so far? How do we project out their health after their infamous lack of availability has overshadowed this entire era of Clippers basketball? Will the Clippers be able to build a team good enough to win a championship around these two with the new restrictions on roster flexibility for teams with high payrolls? Are these two good enough to win a title regardless of who you put around them? Is there realistically a path forward without them that makes contention more likely?

As far as Leonard is concerned, I actually think this is an easy question. He’s 14 months younger than George and significantly better. He’s proven that he can be the best player on a title team with 2 NBA Finals MVP awards in 2014 and 2019, and he just rattled off one of the best 3-month stretches of his regular season career after working his way back from ACL reconstruction surgery in the summer of 2021. It’s possible that injuries hold Kawhi back in his 30s and keep the Clippers from reaching the mountaintop with him. But there are only a select few players who seem realistically likely to be capable of being the best player on a championship squad in the next 3-5 years, and not only is Kawhi one of them, but the Clippers have no avenue with which to acquire one of the others. If you want to be the process Sixers, tear things down, win 20 games for the next few years, and hope to strike gold in the draft, you had better go root for a different team–the Clippers don’t have their own picks, and any picks they get from a team they trade Kawhi to won’t be in the top 5. Moving on from Kawhi closes the door on any hope of a Clipper title for the next 5 years. Keeping him won’t guarantee one, but it does keep the door open.

It’s Paul George who causes me to waver more. While he still had an All-Star 2022-23 campaign, George has shown more worrying signs of slowing down, and also seems pretty openly not up for the challenge demanded of him as the 2nd best player on a title team. When Doc Rivers left, he complained that he didn’t have the ball in his hands enough under Rivers. The Clippers made the Western Conference Finals the next year with George shouldering the primary offensive creation load, but this year, he rejected those duties, repeatedly advocating behind the scenes and publically for the Clippers to acquire veteran point guards to take the ball out of his hands. He said on his podcast that bringing the ball up against Jrue Holiday was too hard (it didn’t seem to bother Jimmy Butler) and he wanted to be filling a lane instead. He praised Russell Westbrook, a mid-season buyout addition, for being the Clippers’ leader–a statement that is both undeniably true as it is embarrassing for George, who has been the highest-paid player on the team for 4 years and will be again next year.

Overall, I have concern about George’s evolving fit next to Kawhi Leonard as both players, already not natural lead playmakers, age and look to teammates to shoulder more of the nightly regular season offensive creation. In the 2021 regular season, George and Leonard played 1,027 minutes together, with the Clippers winning those minutes by 17.8 points per 100 possessions. This season, in 994 minutes together, the Clippers won by just 8.2 points per 100 possessions. I wish I could say I think that the entirety of the difference could be attributed to the declining veteran role players on the supporting cast.

But if you aren’t going to extend George, you have to trade him–the last thing the Clippers can afford to happen is to spend next season on a partnership they don’t believe in long-term anyway and then find themselves stuck between paying him next summer or losing him for nothing. If giving George a $200M+ extension is terrifying, not extending or trading him is foolish; the odds of building a winner without him or a good trade return for him are essentially 0. What can the Clippers realistically get for George? Well, we’ll have a lot more time to track rumors and brainstorm as the off-season goes on, but obviously any proposal has to be weighed in terms of fit around Leonard, upside for a medium-term window (assuming Kawhi extends), and whether it makes it more likely for the Clippers to win a title in the Kawhi window. Contratry to some pessimistic Clippers fans, I don’t think it’s unrealistic to think that such a deal could emerge–All-Star level wings are still the most coveted archetype in the NBA, and George is still really good. The Clippers would presumably search for a lead guard at the center of any return, and there are a lot more high-quality 6’2″ starters than 6’8″ ones around the league.

Can the Clippers give Paul George and Kawhi Leonard contract extensions?
Lucas Hann