Good news everyone: the Rooting Interests series did so well during bubble play that we’ve decided to keep it around in the post-season. That means that today, we’ll break down each game as the 2020 NBA Playoffs begin.
Now, if we continued doing Rooting Interests exactly how we’ve done them so far, it might get a little boring. After all, we probably won’t change who we’re rooting for in the middle of a round. So, in addition to covering who we’re rooting for, these posts will include predictions for every series as well as key things to watch for and updates on how those keys are developing.
Let’s dive in! As each team plays every other day for the next two weeks (or less, if someone wins), it will take two days for the entire field to progress through each game of the first round. Tomorrow, the 2020 NBA Playoffs begin with Round 1, Game 1, Day 1.
2020 NBA Playoffs Round 1, Game 1, Day 1
All times Pacific Time.
Utah Jazz vs Denver Nuggets, 10:30am, ESPN
Rooting for: Utah Jazz
Lucas’ Prediction: Nuggets in 5
What to watch for: Denver’s Wing Rotation
I know that this is a series that a lot of folks are excited about, but I actually don’t think there’s much suspense–Denver has been clearly better than Utah all season, and the Jazz offensive attack is significantly weakened by Bojan Bogdanovic’s injury. Plus, Mike Conley left the bubble for the birth of his son, which will cause him to miss at least the first 2 or 3 games of this series. Utah already wasn’t a deep team. Now? Their two most reliable reserves this season, Joe Ingles and Jordan Clarkson, are both going to be forced into the starting lineup without much behind them.
So, we’ll root for Utah because they’re the less scary potential second-round opponent for LAC, but I feel confident in Denver’s ability to handle business in this series.
It’s actually a bit of a break for Denver, who are struggling with injuries of their own, and that’s what we’ll be keeping our eyes on ahead of a presumptive second-round series between the Clippers and Nuggets. Do Gary Harris and Torrey Craig return to the lineup in this series? If they don’t, do Michael Porter Jr. and Torrey Craig stay in the starting lineup? Does MPJ keep up his almost-certainly-unsustainable offensive production from the seeding games, and how does the potential return of Harris and Craig impact his minutes and role?
Brooklyn Nets vs Toronto Raptors, 1:00pm, ESPN
Rooting for: Brooklyn Nets
Lucas’ Prediction: Raptors in 5
What to watch for: Toronto’s Intensity
There isn’t much question that this series should be a cakewalk for the Raptors. I have the Nets stealing a game, which honestly might be a foolhardy prediction, but this 5-game series should be far less competitive than the 5-game series I’m predicting between Utah and Denver.
Two reasons I’m saying 5 and not 4: first, the Raptors inexplicably dropping a first-round game is tradition, and second, the Nets are just weird enough–massive volume of three-point attempts from a lineup with a number of lesser-known and unknown guys–and competitive enough (they went 5-3 in the bubble despite having no business winning games) that it’s believable they could get a perfect storm kind of night in one of the first four games.
This is one of my lower-priority series for viewing, being one of the first round’s two most unbalanced series, on the far side of the bracket from the Clippers. But when I tune in, I’m watching to see if the Raptors’ focus and defensive intensity send a message that they’re here to repeat and be a legitimate challenger to the Milwaukee Bucks in the Eastern Conference. I have a feeling they will be.
Philadelphia 76ers vs Boston Celtics, 3:30pm, ESPN
Rooting for: Boston Celtics
Lucas’ Prediction: Celtics in 6
What to watch for: Joel Embiid
I’ve said it throughout the bubble: Philly should be much better than they are, and are probably the most disappointing team in the league this year. That said, they’re built for the playoffs with plentiful size and experience. If they’re going to go on a run this post-season, it’s going to be on the shoulders of Joel Embiid, likely playing 40 minutes a night and putting up iconic performances.
Can the Celtics–whose best option to defend Embiid is probably 6’8″ Daniel Theiss–do enough against Embiid and elsewhere to outweigh that match-up? My bet is on yes, but that’s where this series will swing, and if Embiid can lift the Sixers over a quite good Celtics team, he should be considered a serious threat in future rounds as well.
Dallas Mavericks vs LA Clippers, 6:00pm, ESPN
Rooting for: LA Clippers
Lucas’ Prediction: Clippers in 4
What to watch for: Zubac’s minutes
I won’t spend too much energy here breaking down this series (since I already wrote a comprehensive series preview), but I’ll point to one key area that could be meaningful as the playoffs progress: Doc Rivers’ trust in Ivica Zubac. Rivers and the team have clearly said and shown that their trust in Zu is much stronger than it was going into the playoffs last year, where he was eventually removed from the starting lineup and rotation (albeit against the small-ball Golden State Warriors).
The floor-spacing Mavs, with Kristaps Porzingis and Maxi Kleber splitting time at center, present a unique challenge for Zubac–but he was dominant against them two weeks ago, with 21 points and 15 rebounds on 10-10 shooting in 25 minutes. Over the course of the season (3 games, and Zu doesn’t always play much, so a serious sample size alert here), Zubac’s defensive rating against Dallas was third only to Anthony Davis and Joel Embiid, per Andrew Greif of the LA Times.
If Zubac can not just stay on the floor against Dallas, but thrive and earn increased minutes and get called on to close games, it would be a wonderful indication that LAC can rely on him in later rounds. If he struggles, and Rivers prioritizes returning backup center Montrezl Harrell or small-ball lineups with JaMychal Green, it could be hard for Zubac to fully regain his confidence and Doc’s trust in a post-season run where the stakes will only get higher.
That’ll do it for today’s Rooting Interests–an exciting slate of games as the 2020 NBA Playoffs finally begin. Check back tomorrow as the other four series get underway.
