Overview:
Oof—after a heartbreaking buzzer beater loss to the Suns on Tuesday, the Clippers are looking to bounce back against the Mavericks. The Mavericks are sitting comfortably at the 7th seed, thus making them almost certainly the 1st round matchup against the 2nd seed. Unfortunately, with 2 losses already notched up in the bubble, the Clippers are far from a lock at claiming arguably the best spot in the Western Conference standings. And now, here’s the game preview for this showdown between the Clippers and Mavericks.
This post has been updated to reflect the news that Seth Curry is out, and Boban Marjanovic will start in his place.
Game Information
Where: The Most Magical Place on Earth (Orlando, Florida)
When: Thursday, August 8th @ 3:30PM PT
How to Watch: TNT, Prime Ticket, Fox Sports South West
Projected Starting Lineups
Mavericks (Home) : Luka Doncic -Tim Hardaway Jr. – Dorian Finney-Smith – Kristaps Porzingis – Boban Marjanovic
Clippers (Away): Reggie Jackson – Paul George – Kawhi Leonard – Marcus Morris – Ivica Zubac
Injuries
Mavericks: Seth Curry OUT (Leg injury), Willey Cauley-Stein OUT (Opted out), Courtney Lee OUT (Calf Injury), Jalen Brunson OUT (Shoulder Injury), Dwight Powell OUT (Achilles Injury)
Clippers: Patrick Beverly OUT (Strained Calf), Montrezl Harrell OUT (Personal)
The Big Picture
The Clippers did not look good for the majority of their game against the Suns. While the Suns played very well with some uncharacteristically hot shooting, it was simply a game the Clippers should have won in order to give them more breathing room from the teams currently fighting in the 2-6 seed gauntlet. The team is in the midst of the easier part of the seeding games schedule, and while the loss to the Suns was by no means the end of world, it definitely gave them less room for error if they hope to hold onto the 2nd seed.
The Nuggets are only one game behind the Clippers with the season series split at one win a piece. The two teams play on August 12th in what could be their most important game of the season when it comes to strategic playoff positioning. All that being said, the Clippers simply just have to keep trying to win (something that Doc seemingly hasn’t been prioritizing with some of his lineups), but that likely won’t be easy against the Mavericks.
For the Clippers to succeed, they flat out have to play with more consistent effort than they did against the Suns. While Leonard, George, Zubac, and Morris all showed spurts of good play throughout the game, the team fell into a lull for long stretches that created deficits that the Clippers were always chipping away at. Though the Mavericks have struggled in the clutch these past few games, they are a dangerous team when they gain momentum, as they shoot the 2nd most threes in the league while maintaining the 9th best 3PT percentage.
The Clippers key to success will be limiting the Mavericks from getting in rhythm from behind the arc while relentlessly attacking their very average defense. The Mavericks don’t have anyone you would really consider a lockdown defender, unless you count the Great Wall of Boban and the ghost of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. For as good as Luka is, both Paul George and Kawhi should be able to make him uncomfortable, especially when it comes to his passing. While Luka has been great, he also has been averaging close to 7 turnovers a game in the bubble.
Overall, the Clippers are a great matchup for the Mavericks, but if they come out of the gates sluggish and disorganized on defense, they may be in for a long night.
The Antagonist
Similar to the Clippers, the Mavericks are 1-2 in seeding games. They also share the same stroke of unluck that the Clippers have had, as they could have just as easily been 3-0 considering they lost their games by four and two points respectively. That being said, the Mavericks are very good team that have the league’s best offensive rating, and they are led by one of the most gifted players in the league, Luka Doncic.
While some speculated that Luka might not be in the best shape coming into the bubble, either he worked his way into shape quickly, this speculation was blatantly wrong, or the entire league is screwed when he actually gets into basketball shape, because in the three seeding games he has played so far, Luka has averaged 34/13/11. Yep, you read that right—in the 3 bubble games so far, he is averaging a 30 point triple double and leading his team in points, rebounds, and assists. He’s a menace on the floor, but luckily, the Clippers happen to have 2 of the best wing defenders to hopefully slow him down.
Luka isn’t the only problem in Dallas. Porzingis seems to have settled into his role a bit more, and he has been playing very well for them. Looking at the Mavericks roster, they simply have a lot of versatility with lots of shooting. They lack the defensive prowess the Clippers possess, but they are still a threat to win every single night.
Notes
- How important are wins right now? It doesn’t seem to be a secret that Doc isn’t showing all of his cards right now. He has played Shamet in crucial minutes against the Lakers and the Suns, and let’s face it, Shamet has had no right to be out there at the moment. His shooting has been abysmal in the bubble, which very well might be due to him still getting into game shape after contracting COVID, and his defense has been even worse. That being said, the Clippers need to play better if they hope to secure the 2nd seed, which would land them with one of the more favorable 1st round matchups—the Mavericks. Things can still change, but probably the one static team is the Mavs, who are 7 games ahead of the 8th seed and 4 games back in the loss column from 6th. Interestingly enough, even though they are more or less locked in to their position, they have been playing Luka a harsh 41 minutes a game…
- Game shape Lou- With Patrick Beverly questionable, which is mostly just precautionary according to Doc, Lou is going to be crucial now that he is back. He looked incredibly sloppy and rusty in his first game back, which isn’t unexpected given how full of wings he is returning from an extended quarantine, but it would be nice to see him back in his groove.
- Big Questions- The Clippers have had a lot of success with JaMychal Green at center, but outside of his game losing turnover, Zubac looked phenomenal against the Suns. Chances are, we’ll be seeing a bit more small ball against the Mavericks as Porzingis/Kleber both stretch the floor well, but it will be interesting to see if Doc continues to ramp up Zubac’s playing time.
- Morris’ Big Game– Morris had arguably his best game as a Clipper against the Suns. It’ll be interesting to see if he maybe found his groove again, or if that was more of a fluke. It’s hard to tell, especially given his other great game for the Clippers was against the Suns, but it’ll be huge if he can start to find more cohesion on the team.
