With only one day remaining in the 2020-2021 NBA regular season, just three playoff teams know which seed they will enter the postseason as. The Clippers, as has been well documented, are not one of these teams. They enter this final regular season game against the Oklahoma City Thunder with a chance to finish either 3rd or 4th in the Western Conference. Which would be more preferable? Well, let’s take a look, along with a quick preview of the Clippers’ game against the Thunder.
The 3rd Seed
In order for the Clippers to finish 3rd in the West, they would need a win over the Thunder on Sunday, coupled with a Denver Nuggets loss to Portland. While this scenario would lock the Clippers into 3rd, it would not yet solidify their first round opponent.
After the Clippers’ loss to Houston on Friday, the possibility of a Lakers vs. Clippers first round showdown was eliminated. This left just Dallas and Portland as potential first round opponents. While the outcome of any NBA game is unpredictable, especially at this stage of the season, there are a few outcomes on Sunday that seem most likely. The first of these is a Clippers’ win over Oklahoma City. With optimal lottery odds at stake, the Thunder are in desperate need of a loss. The Clippers are currently listing everyone as available aside from Amir Coffey, Terance Mann, and DeMarcus Cousins. All of these factors make a Clippers’ win increasingly likely.
As previously stated, a Clippers’ win alone does not clinch the 3rd seed. Denver would also need to lose to Portland in order for the Clips to finish 3rd. Similar to the Clippers likelihood of victory over OKC, a Denver Nuggets loss to Portland also seems very likely. The Blazers are in need of a season finale victory if they want to ensure a spot in the top-6, and subsequently avoid the play-in tournament. The Nuggets however, should not be as eager to finish the season in the win column. Regardless of what the Clippers do on Sunday, a Nuggets’ win in the season finale locks Denver into the 3rd seed. Because Denver plays Portland, a Nuggets win would also leave the door open for the Lakers to escape the play-in tournament. A Lakers win coupled with a Portland loss would move the Lakers to 6th, Blazers to 7th, and Nuggets to 3rd, creating a Lakers vs. Nuggets first round matchup. With the Lakers making quick work of Denver in last year’s Western Conference Finals, it is hard to imagine the Nuggets seeking out a rematch in round one this year.
Due to all of these factors, the most likely outcome on Sunday seems to be a Clippers’ win and Nuggets’ loss, which would lock the Clippers into 3rd. The Clips would then be a Dallas Mavericks’ win away from a 3-6 first round matchup with the Blazers. The Mavs, who play Minnesota in their season finale, should certainly be expected to come out on top in that one.
The 4th Seed
The Clippers will enter their season finale as the 4th seed. With Denver holding the tiebreaker over the Clippers, the Nuggets would have to lose in order for LAC to finish 3rd. Any combination of a Clippers’ loss or Nuggets’ win would lock LAC into the 4th seed. If the Clippers were to finish 4th, a first round matchup with the Dallas Mavericks seems most likely. As previously highlighted, Dallas will likely beat the tanking T-Wolves on Sunday, which would lock them into 5th. With Luka and the Mavs giving the Clippers’ significantly more trouble than Dame and the Blazers have this season, a first round matchup with Portland seems to be the most preferable outcome for the Clippers.
While the Clippers do not entirely control their own seeding destiny, a win on Sunday is in their best interest. Because the 4th seed likely comes with another series against Luka, gunning for 3rd should be the Clippers’ priority. Considering the Nuggets’ incentive to lose their last game, combined with the Blazers’ pursuit of a victory, there is even more reason for the Clippers to take care of business on Sunday and secure a win.
Summary
It has been well documented that anybody can beat anybody on any given night in the NBA. This reality is only magnified as the season winds down, and teams are battling for seeding, lottery odds, and preferable playoff opponents. Because of this, predicting outcomes is next to impossible; however, certain trends and logical conclusions can make it easier. That is what this breakdown has been.
To give a definitive answer to the pressing question of what seed the Clippers should prefer, I say 3rd. The first step towards securing that outcome is taking care of business against the Thunder on Sunday.
