The LA Clippers have only one option against the Dallas Mavericks in game 5: bounce back. After an embarrassing game 4 loss, the Clippers fell to a 2-2 tie in the best-of-seven series, making game 5 an absolutely crucial, pivotal game for both teams.
Game Information
Where: Disneyworld, Orlando, Florida
When: 6:00 PM PT
How to Watch: TNT, Prime Ticket
Projected Starting Lineups
Clippers: Landry Shamet – Paul George – Kawhi Leonard – Marcus Morris – Ivica Zubac
Mavericks: Luka Doncic – Tim Hardaway, Jr. – Dorian Finney-Smith – Maxi Kleber – Kristaps Porzingis
Injury Report
Clippers: Patrick Beverley – Doubtful (left calf strain)
Mavericks: Kristaps Porzingis – Game-time decision (knee soreness), Luka Doncic – Probable (sprained ankle), Trey Burke – Probable (sprained ankle)
The Big Picture
The Clippers have struggled to play consistently good basketball in this series, and as losses mount in the first round, faith in this team and several of its core parts is beginning to wane.
That’s probably premature. On its face, losing two games to a very good Dallas Mavericks team in the first round is hardly a sign that this Clippers squad isn’t a championship-caliber team. Last year, the top-seeded Golden State Warriors lost two first-round games to an 8th-place Clippers team that was much less scary than this Mavs group. The eventual champion, Toronto, faced criticism after losing game 1 in the first round to the even lowlier Orlando Magic. Later, in the Eastern Conference Finals, they came one insane bounce away from potentially going to overtime in game 7 and missing the Finals entirely. Nobody’s perfect, and sometimes even champions need a little luck.
What matters for the Clippers, particularly the guilty parties in these two losses, is that the team finds its bearing down the stretch of this series to survive, advance, and keep improving as the playoffs continue. I know we’re conditioned to expect perfection and greatness at all times, but the reality is that for finalists, the NBA Playoffs are a roughly 25-game, 8-week tournament. We’d never expect a team to go 25 regular-season games without a game where they drop the ball, or a scoring slump for an important player, any more than we would expect to see 25 games without a hot shooting night or a surprising role player earning more minutes.
If the Clippers lose tonight in game 5, their season won’t be over, but their margin for error will be reduced to 0, needing to win games 6 and 7 just to head into the second round at a rest disadvantage (likely against a seasoned Utah Jazz team starring Donovan Mitchell’s blistering playoff scoring). I don’t need to spell out how significant a game 5 win is in a series tied 2-2. The Clippers’ job tonight is simple: bounce back.
The Antagonist
That simple job is complicated by the team of men standing in the Clippers’ way, most notably 21-year-old Slovenian phenom Luka Doncic. A lot of times, the word phenom adequately captures the young player we’re talking about, like if I were describing the heroics of Devin Booker against the Clippers in the bubble two weeks ago.
It doesn’t quite do Luka justice. I’m not prepared to make a statement as bold as “Luka is better at his age than LeBron James or Michael Jordan was”–but I’ll take the cowardly route of saying he’s at least in the conversation with those two. Doncic’s legacy will be determined over the next fifteen years or so, and his ability to lead teams to titles and repeat iconic performances like Sunday’s game 4 will determine how history views him. For now, we can only say (with respect to these Hall of Famers) that his career trajectory isn’t along the lines of A-list stars like Damian Lillard and James Harden, but rather those of James, Jordan, and the Clippers’ own two-time NBA Finals MVP, Kawhi Leonard.
Despite Doncic’s greatness, the Clippers can blame themselves for Dallas’ two wins in this series. With all credit to Doncic, Rick Carlisle, and the rest of the Mavericks for playing well and perfectly positioning themselves to take advantage of LA’s mistakes, this series has come down to just that: LA’s mistakes. Now, the Clippers have given the Mavericks something very dangerous: hope.
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If Dallas hadn’t come back from down 21 in the second quarter of game 4, if they hadn’t gone on a 16-0 run in the third to take the lead, if Doncic hadn’t hit a 28-foot step-back three at the buzzer to lift the Mavs to an overtime victory, then that might not be a factor. Dallas would be down 3-1, needing three straight wins against a team that had beaten them six of seven times this season. Now, the younger, less-experienced Mavericks can look at a 2-2 series and note that their two losses came first in a game where their second star, Kristaps Porzingis, was ejected, and then in a game where Doncic exited early with an ankle injury. Not only did they win game 2 at full strength, but they triumphed in game 4 with Porzingis sidelined with a knee injury.
The task in front of the Mavericks is to win two of the next three games against the LA Clippers. How can they not believe in their ability to do so when they just won two out of the last three games?
It is unimaginably hard to beat a good team, playing high-intensity basketball a full strength, four times in a row. Winning an NBA playoff series in four or five games requires not just being the better team, but convincing your opponent to roll over because the series is all but over anyway. There will be no such quit in Doncic and the Mavericks after game 4.
Notes
- Kristaps’ knee: Dallas’ second-best player missed game 4 with right knee soreness, and is considered a game-time decision for game 5. Porzingis has a history with knee injuries, and missed a stretch of 10 games with knee soreness earlier in the season, so my guess is that if the pain was bad enough for him to miss a playoff game on Sunday, it’s gotta be something that’s really bothering him. But while Kristaps is the Mavs’ second star, this isn’t a 1A vs 1B situation with him and Luka–it’s more like a 1 vs 3. Porzingis had ten 30-point games this season, and 34 in game 3, so I’m not saying he doesn’t matter, just that he’s the most prolific member of Luka’s supporting cast rather than a true second star. In that 10-game stretch with KP out of the lineup, the Mavs (who won 57% of their games this season) went 6-4. Luka is still Luka. Where Porzingis’ absence matters most is with Dallas’ big depth–due to injuries and bubble weirdness, 6’10” PF/C Maxi Kleber (who the Mavs are using to guard Kawhi Leonard) and Boban Marjanovic are Rick Carlisle’s only other options down low. If Porzingis is out again, the Clippers can exploit that lack of depth by getting Kleber in foul trouble and exposing Boban defensively by using his man to set ball screens.
- The Clippers’ guards can’t guard: LA has their own depth dilemma in the backcourt, where Patrick Beverley’s absence has left Doc Rivers with 3 rotation guards (Reggie Jackson, Lou Williams, and Landry Shamet) who are all poor defenders. Jackson in particular has been exposed this series as the Mavs have targeted him for switches. As long as Patrick Beverley remains out with a calf injury, Rivers is hard-pressed to build a rotation that never features two of these poor defensive guards sharing the floor, but he can make some adjustments to help protect them. First, staggering Ivica Zubac’s minutes with the second unit will help keep a rim protector behind Jackson, Williams, and Shamet instead of allowing free layups against Montrezl Harrell’s abysmal help defense. Beyond that, Rivers desperately needs to tap into his depth and use Rodney McGruder, an experienced veteran known for his grit and perimeter defense, in spot minutes to provide a bridge between more stable defensive lineups.
- Sustainable shooting: The main beneficiaries of the Clippers’ poor defensive depth in the backcourt have been Mavericks Trey Burke and Seth Curry, who have had absurd series shooting the ball: Burke shooting 58% from the field and 50% from deep (career averages 41% and 34.5%) and Curry shooting 65% and 56.3% (career averages 47.5% and 44.3%). These guys staying this hot for this long feels like classic Clipper Curse material, but in reality they are both streaky scorers who the Clippers have allowed to get hot against poor defenders. The aforementioned adjustments, like utilizing McGruder and employing Zubac as a second-unit rim protector, would help to prevent Burke and Curry from getting going to begin with.
- Montrezl’s Nightmare: It’s no secret that Montrezl Harrell has been unplayably bad through four games of this series. While he’s still getting in shape and shaking the rust off after an extended absence to deal with a tragic death in his family, as well as mentally processing that mourning, I don’t think his struggles in this series have much to do with him at all–Doc Rivers is failing to put him in a position to succeed. It’s not a secret that Harrell is an undersized big who relies on his strength to bully taller and longer-armed opponents, but struggles to score outside the paint and can be contained when opposing length limits his attempts at the rim.
The 7’4″ Marjanovic, who plays backup center for Dallas, is simply too tall, too long, and too strong for Harrell’s normal schtick to work. It’s a nightmare matchup for the presumptive sixth man of the year, and it’s shown: the Clippers have been outscored by 46 points in the 72 minutes Harrell has spent on the floor this series (including him being -19 in 17 minutes in game 4, which was tied at the end of regulation!).
That isn’t entirely his fault–he’s frequently playing in lineups with two of the three aforementioned poor guard defenders–but it’s a clear indicator that every time Rivers has deployed him in this series to anchor a lineup, it has been an abject failure. His lineups have allowed more Mavericks points (210) in 72 minutes than Zubac’s lineups have in 92 minutes (208). Harrell never attempted fewer than 6 shots in a game this season; he’s gotten 5, 4, 5, and 2 FGA up in the four games this series.
In Dallas’ two wins, Marjanovic was +12 in 10 minutes and +11 in 16 minutes, almost all coming against Harrell. The Clippers had their 21-point lead cut to 8 in the second quarter of game 4 as Harrell and Marjanovic faced off at the center position. I wrote in my series preview that Boban was the perfect neutralizer for Trez. There is no other interpretation, and no way around it: if Rivers does not either bench Harrell or find a way to put him in better positions to succeed, the Clippers will lose this series.
- Playoff P: If Rivers is responsible for Montrezl Harrell’s nightmare series, then “Playoff P” himself is responsible for his own. Paul George has had a historically abysmal series offensively, becoming just the second player in NBA history to shoot worse than 25% from the field in three consecutive playoff games where he attempted 14 or more shots after Howie Dallmar in 1948. Basketball wasn’t even basketball in 1948.
Despite the memes, George has never actually been a bad playoff performer. Over the last two years in Oklahoma City, he averaged 27 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assists on 42/34/84 splits. It didn’t quite measure up to his regular-season efficiency, but for an 11-game sample size in an environment with heightened defensive intensity, it’s a fairly normal line. If he was posting that for the Clippers, this series would be over already.
He recorded a few stinkers with OKC, shooting 6-21 in game 2 against Utah in 2018 and 3-16 in game 3 against Portland in 2019 (interestingly, OKC’s only win in that series). Of course, there was the infamous elimination game in that 2018 OKC-Utah series, where he managed just 5 points on 2-16 shooting. But in his 11-game OKC sample, those 3 performances have to be weighed against his good nights: 5 30-point outings, including 36/9/3 on 14-20 shooting in an elimination game last year. George is prone to bad playoff performances, but on average he isn’t a bad playoff player.
After a pretty great start to this series (27 points on 10-22 from the field in game 1), George has been straight-up horrible. In games 2, 3, and 4, he combined for 34 points on 10-47 shooting. While you can point to his non-scoring contributions (27 rebounds, 12 assists, and some solid defense in those three games), it’s this simple: the Clippers didn’t trade 7 draft picks and pay PG $30 million so he could do the little things. He needs to show up for them to win a title. He needs to score.
Anyone can miss some shots, but what PG needs most of all is confidence. He claimed after game 4 that he is playing confidently. He’s wrong. It doesn’t take an astute observer to see how scared he is playing offensively: in both games 3 and 4, he lucked into easy opportunities near the basket in the closing minutes and was extremely timid. A late missed layup in game 4 was one of many plays that cost LAC a 3-1 lead in the series. Great scorers know that when their shot isn’t falling, it’s still their job to produce for their team, so they make a point of aggressively getting to the rim for either a high-percentage look or a pair of free throws. George hasn’t done that, attempting just 13 free throw this series (by the way, he’s made all 13). If he’s going to get his head right and help the Clippers win this series and an eventual championship, an assistant coach or veteran leader needs to convince him that the way out of his slump is to relentlessly attack the rim, whether the result is a dunk, a miss, a turnover, or free throws.
- Zubac’s minutes: Ivica Zubac has been the Clippers’ best center all year. Sure, he had some good bubble games and Harrell’s struggles in this series have been egregious, but I said it then and I’ll say it now: Zubac was better in December and January too. He should have played more all year, and he should be playing more in this series. In total, the Clippers have won the 92 minutes he’s been on the court by 35 points. More importantly, the Clippers get crushed when he’s off the court: -9 in 26 minutes in game 1, -9 in 30 minutes in game 2, -5 in 18 minutes in game 3, and -11 in 32 minutes in game 4. It’s not an accident that Zubac played the most he’s played all season, 30 minutes, in the Clippers’ best game in this series, game 3. Even in that game, the Clippers won the first half by 14 points (all +14 coming in Zu’s 19 first-half minutes) and lost the second half by 6 points (going -1 in Zu’s 11 minutes and -5 in 13 non-Zu minutes).
Zubac can’t play 48 minutes, and Rivers needs to find sustainable solutions to getting him rest, either finding playable scenarios for Harrell, utilizing small-ball lineups with Marcus Morris and JaMychal Green, or throwing spot minutes to veteran center Joakim Noah. But the conversation needs to be about Zu’s rest: he should be playing as much as his conditioning will allow, potentially in the mid-to-high 30s along with Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and Marcus Morris.
- Doubleheader: Obviously the Clippers can only focus on themselves right now–they’re in enough trouble in this series that they don’t need to worry about what’s going on around the league. But for the rest of us, helplessly watching at home, it’s worth noting that the game before LA’s matters too. After over a week of quadruple-header playoff action, Eastern Conference sweeps (by the way, end conferences, the EC is staggeringly weaker than the WC and their good teams essentially get byes) have left us with just Utah-Denver and LA-Dallas playing game 5 Tuesday night. If the Clippers get their act together and win this series, they’ll play the winner of Utah-Denver in the second round–and since Utah holds a 3-1 series lead, it would marginally help the Clippers if Denver won by reducing the likelihood of LA entering the second round with a rest disadvantage. Check out the newest edition of Rooting Interests for more analysis of all the series going on around the NBA.
- Game Thread: After input from the community, we are hosting game threads in the comments of each game’s Game Preview post. That means that the comments below are your game thread for tonight’s crucial game 5–we’ve had lively threads lately with over 100 comments, so please either log in or sign up and join the conversation!
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