Our 2021 season preview continues with a look at a new Clippers player, young scoring guard Luke Kennard.
Basic Information
Height: 6’5
Weight: 205 pounds
Position: Shooting Guard/Point Guard
Age: 24
Years in NBA: 3
Key Stats: 15.8 points, 3.5 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 0.4 steals in 32.9 minutes per game across 28 games played on 44.2/39.9/89.3 shooting splits.
Contract Status: In the final year of a four-year 1st round rookie deal, earning $5.27M. Will be eligible for restricted free agency this summer if the Clippers extend a qualifying offer.
Expectations
Lots of expectations are being heaped on Kennard’s young shoulders. The Clippers collapsed in epic fashion in the 2020 playoffs (who could forget), and Kennard is one of just a couple truly major roster additions to address the weaknesses of the 2020 team. Now, there was a change in coaching staff, and pure roster weaknesses weren’t alone in causing issues, so roster adjustments aren’t the lone method of improving. Still, the acquisition of Kennard for young guard Landry Shamet was surprising and also maybe the biggest move the Clippers made this offseason, so it makes sense that fans have high hopes.
Kennard will come off the bench behind franchise superstar Paul George, but is expected to be co-sixth man with veteran Lou Williams, and will likely play 25 or more minutes per game. Additionally, he is the early favorite to move into the starting lineup when any of Pat Beverley, George, and Kawhi Leonard is out with injury or rest. That alone would give Kennard around 20 starts, conservatively. There’s also a good chance that Kennard closes at least some games, either alongside the prior starters in a small-ball lineup, or replacing Beverley to provide more shot creation. He will have a major, major role this season if things work out like he and the Clippers hope.
Strengths
Kennard is a highly talented offensive player who brings a lot of tools to the table. Perhaps most importantly for the Clippers, he’s a shot creator both for himself and others, someone very capable of running a high number of pick and rolls a game and getting consistently good shots. He’s especially potent seeking his own looks, as he uses patience, guile, and a steady handle to create shots in the midrange. If not challenged, he’s more than willing to attack the basket directly, where he’s a phenomenal finisher (72.1% on shots from 0-3 feet last season per basketball reference). While not a brilliant playmaker, Kennard is a solid passer who can make reads out of the pick and roll and in transition. He’s also similar to Beverley in that he has a very low turnover rate, especially considering his usage and scoring.
The other major strength of Kennard is as an off-ball shooter. He’s a 40% three-point shooter for his NBA career on fairly significant volume, and that’s while playing with a myriad of poor to mediocre offensive threats outside of one season of Blake Griffin in 2019. Kennard’s height and quick release enables him to get shots off almost at will, and he’s adept at finding open space off-ball to attain better looks. He doesn’t play quite how Shamet did in terms of running through a ton of screens, but he has that ability as well. When playing alongside George and Leonard, he should receive a ton of open looks, and there’s a large sample size that he will knock them down at a high rate.
Finally, Kennard can create his own looks in isolation as well. He’s not ultra quick or fast, but he does have good footwork, and his size comes in handy too. Kennard has a very nice stepback, and the threat of his driving and finishing means he actually creates some separation with the move. The Clippers probably won’t be relying on him to do much solo creation with Kawhi, George, Lou Williams, and Marcus Morris all having that capability, but it’s something they can ask of him if needed.
Weaknesses
Luke Kennard is not a versatile defender. He has decent size and can move well enough, but he lacks the physicality and strength to bang with bigger wings, and is not quick enough laterally to stick with smaller guards. Now, at defending players of a similar class Kennard is *fine* (he rates ok by advanced metrics), but nobody would ever call him a stopper. For a Clippers team that possesses many strong perimeter defenders, this isn’t much an issue, but it might prevent Kennard from closing as many games as his offensive skillset warrants.
But the real bugaboo for Kennard is availability. He played in a decent 73 games his rookie season, an acceptable 63 games in his sophomore year, and just 28 last year. Not only are the injuries grim in their own right, but the somewhat limited playing time in 2020 casts some aspersions on whether his breakout season was legit. The Clippers’ depth is not great this season, and while guard is probably their strong point, any injury to a top player would be tough to overcome. Add on to the fact that Pat Beverley is extremely injury-prone as well, and there’s a good chance the Clippers will be missing two of their top three guards at the same time for some stretch of the season.
Summary
Kennard is a very nice addition to the Clippers roster. His ball-handling, shot creation, and shooting will be valuable on a Clippers team that was lacking to one extent or another in all of those components last season. However, middling defense and an unfortunate injury-heavy 2020 throws some doubt on what is otherwise a well-regarded addition. If Kennard is healthy and plays to the level that he showed in 2020, the Clippers offense will likely be better than ever in 2021.
