With just a week until the season begins, let’s take a look at the season preview for the Clippers’ youngest rotation contributor, Ivica Zubac.
Basic Information
Height: 7’0″
Weight: 240 lbs.
Position: Center
Age: 23
Years in NBA: 4
Key Stats: In 72 appearances for the Clippers last season, played 18.4 minutes per game and averaged 8.3 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.1 assists, and 0.9 blocks. In the playoffs, played 24.6 minutes per game and averaged 9.1 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 0.8 blocks. In the Clippers’ second-round loss to Denver, they won Zubac’s minutes by 32 points and lost the minutes he sat by 35.
Contract Status: Signed a 4-year contract with the Clippers summer 2019, paying him $7,000,000 this year and and $7.5M each of the next two seasons, with a team option for the final year.
Expectations
The Clippers need to rely on Zubac more this season than they have in the past, given his near-elite numbers as a rebounder and rim protector. It was a disgrace that he only played 18 minutes a night last season on a team that lacked a single other big man who was adequate at either rebounding or defending, and that mistake was horribly exposed in the playoffs when the Clippers struggled to do anything positive defensively when Zubac sat. This year, the Clippers have a much more legitimate alternative in newcomer Serge Ibaka, who isn’t as good as Zubac in either category but brings a slight upgrade in mobility and a major one in offensive skillset.
Heading into the regular season, Ty Lue has said that Ibaka will take over the starting center position this season, moving Zubac to the second unit to play in a lineup with Terance Mann, Lou Williams, Luke Kennard, and Nicolas Batum. Given the personnel in question, the thought process makes sense–that quartet features a significantly worse collection of perimeter defenders and guard and forward rebounders than the Clippers’ starters, making Zu’s skillset needed on the bench unit. Whether Zu starts or not isn’t necessarily a priority, but he will need to play more than his 18 minutes per game last season. A roughly 50/50 minutes split with Ibaka is the ideal outcome, regardless of who starts.
While Zubac is quite good, the Clippers’ lack of alternatives last season may have caused him to become a little bit overrated in Clippers’ fan circles by nature of the team’s over-dependence on him and absolute collapse when a different center was in the game. Ibaka’s role might unsettle some who are used to loudly clamoring for Zubac to play 30+ minutes a night, but this season’s roster gives Ty Lue the advantage of not needing to funnel minutes to a center who doesn’t bring floor-spacing offensively. If the Clippers find themselves needing to match up with Nikola Jokic for 40 minutes a night in a playoff series again, Zu will be immensely useful in big minutes. But at other times, the Clippers can deploy a center who spaces the floor around their stars while still holding down the fort defensively.
Strengths
Zubac does two things incredibly well: rebound, and defend in the lane. Last season, he grabbed 21.3% of available rebounds while he was on the floor, including an astonishing and league-leading 15.9% of available offensive rebounds. That’s right, for all the focus on his defense, Ivica was the NBA’s best offensive rebounder last season.
The focus on his defense is warranted, though. Zu was one of the NBA’s top rim protectors last season and actually held Jokic, the league’s best offensive center, to lower numbers than Rudy Gobert did in the round prior. There’s a limit to the impact that can be made in that type of role–Jokic was still clearly the best player on the floor in that series, and put up a string of dominant performances–but take a look at Jokic’s numbers in the playoffs vs Gobert, vs Zu, vs non-Zu Clipper lineups, and vs the Lakers (adjusted to per-40 minute rates, since that’s about how much he was playing a night):
| Opponent | FGA | FG% | 3PA | 3PT% | FTA | REB | AST | TOV | PTS | +/- |
| Gobert | 21.1 | 51.5% | 7.2 | 47.8% | 4.1 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 28.4 | -4.4 |
| Zubac | 18.7 | 49.4% | 4.5 | 42.1% | 3.1 | 12.8 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 23.2 | -6.4 |
| non-Zu LAC | 21.4 | 54.9% | 8.0 | 36.8% | 5.9 | 16.8 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 30.6 | +20.9 |
| LAL | 18.4 | 53.2% | 3.4 | 35.7% | 6.2 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 26.1 | -4.1 |
I think there are two takeaways from those numbers. The first is that Zubac did a damn good job on Jokic, doing best overall and in a number of individual metrics. The second is that Jokic is damn good, still putting up an efficient 23/13/7 per 40 in his minutes going against Zubac. Just because the other Clippers who drew the Jokic assignment were deer in the headlights doesn’t mean that Zu didn’t also lose the match-up–it just means that he was able to keep the margin of defeat small enough that LAC could make it up elsewhere.
Weaknesses
While Zu does just enough offensively to be a positive presence, he’s both a non-floor spacer and not much of an interior threat. He finishes with solid efficiently on low-volume attempts around the rim, mostly completing dunks off of dump-offs from drivers and scoring on putbacks–again, that league-best offensive rebounding rate really helps him boost his value on that end of the floor. Still, he isn’t at all an explosive pick-and-roll threat and his constant presence in the lane allows opposing anchors to stay home and help on drives where a shooter like Ibaka could pull them out.
Defensively, while Zu is stellar around the basket, he isn’t particularly quick and can get caught in bad situations when asked to defend perimeter ball screens. He’s actually smart and big enough to use good positioning to fend well for himself when caught in a switch, but it’s the initial action where he just isn’t the kind of defender who can hedge to contain a guard and recover to take away a mobile big’s roll to the rim.
One last note on Zu’s defense, which really is relevant: he’s quiet. Teams often rely on their center, who is typically the furthest-back defensive player who can see the whole floor, to be vocal leaders who communicate with the perimeter players in front of them.
Summary
Zubac is a really effective young big man on a really great team-friendly contract, so hopefully he stays with the Clippers for a long time. Good teams will always need players who are as consistently positive on defense and the glass as he is. Last season, he clearly should have played more throughout the year and in the playoffs. This year, while he should still see his minutes increase, the Clippers have wisely built a roster where Zu can be deployed as a good rotation player with a valuable skillset and not depended upon as the team’s only viable option at center.
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