A Note on Bones Hyland’s Lineup Data

Robert is going to have a full scouting report on Bones in the next couple of days, but I just wanted to drop in a little note on something that has puzzled me in recent weeks: the lineup data for new Clippers guard Bones Hyland. After a breakout rookie year where he earned All-Rookie 2nd team honors, Bones has struggled in his second season, and the Nuggets have struggled with him on the floor. It’s a little surprising, considering that Bones’ basic numbers haven’t moved much: his points, assists, and turnovers have all increased slightly (resulting in a worse assist:turnover ratio), his field goal % is only lower by 4 one-hundredths of a percent, and his eFG% has only dropped 1.5% despite an increase in 3PT% because he is taking more twos, where he struggles. It’s also jarring because the Nuggets have been by far the best team in the Western Conference. So how did his on/off impact get so nasty after looking fine last season?

Last season, Denver won Bones’ minutes and were only slightly worse when he played than when he was on the bench–perfectly acceptable (actually quite good) for a backup rookie guard. This season, they’re losing big in his minutes and substantially worse when he plays than when he sits. His warts–shot selection, inconsistent efficiency, defense–are what they are, and his strengths–high PnR navigation, pull-up three-point shooting–haven’t waned in year 2. So how do we explain the Nuggets being so bad when he plays? Did his weaknesses really get that much weaker as a sophomore?

I’ve got 3 potential explanations that I think have contributed to these staggering lineup numbers.

1. Poor fit with Jamal Murray. Star Nuggets guard Jamal Murray missed Bones’ rookie season as he recovered from an ACL tear, and the 2 are extremely incompatible players. Both are small, ball-dominant guards who are poor defenders, and they have stepped on each others’ toes all year, resulting in what appears to be some bad blood behind the scenes based on Twitter drama that I don’t really care to get into.
   
   Let’s just look at the numbers. Here are Bones’ 2 most-used 5-man combinations this season:
   
   a) Hyland – Murray – Bruce Brown – Vlatko Cancar – Zeke Nnaji: -5.5 points/100 possessions in 59 minutes
   b) Hyland – Murray – Christian Braun – Jeff Green – DeAndre Jordan: -11.5 points/100 possessions in 29 minutes
   
   Here’s the thing, though–if you take those 4-man lineups and replace Murray with another one of Denver’s starters, things start looking much better:
   
   a) Hyland – Brown – Cancar – Nnaji with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope instead of Murray: +61.7 points/100 possessions in 24 minutes
   b) Hyland – Brown – Cancar – Nnaji with Michael Porter Jr. instead of Murray: +32.9 points/100 possessions in 23 minutes
   
   Now, it’s important to note how small these sample sizes are. When we get into the 20s, we’re talking about lineups that have only played together in a few games, and if Jokic and Murray are both off the floor, we’re likely looking at a lot of garbage time minutes. But the struggles of Denver’s bench lineups probably serve as more of an indictment of the Bones/Jamal fit than either individual.
2. Denver’s Bench Stinks: Bones’ lineup data is ugly, but it’s not unique. Remember that he’s -8.6 points/100 on the floor, with the team being 18.0 points/100 worse with him on than off. Those numbers are similarly unflattering for every other Nugget who doesn’t get to start regularly: Cancar (-3.2, -9.4), Braun (-4.1, -11.3), Ish Smith (-6.3, -11.4), Nnaji (-6.6, -13.4), Jordan (-8.7, -15.4), and Green (-10.2, -18.6).
   
   In addition to the Jamal/Bones fit being bad on paper, on floor, and in the data, the first thing that jumps out when you read those most-used lineups listed above is that Denver’s 2nd unit does not have much quality on it. Last year without Murray, Bones was still backing up the now-traded Monte Morris, but had more opportunity to play in staggered lineups with starters. The Nuggets simply got more night-to-night utility out of guys like Austin Rivers, JaMychal Green, and DeMarcus Cousins than their replacements on this roster, while 36-year-old Jeff Green has declined substantially.
3. Lack of consistent opprtunities with Jokic: Everything Denver does lives and dies by the 2-time reigning NBA MVP, and Bones is no different. Last year, Bones played 39% of his minutes with Jokic. This season, that number has been down to 33%. It’s not a substantial decrease, but it’s there. He’s also getting just 19% of his minutes with Aaron Gordon, down from 33% last year.
   
   One of the biggest concerning elements in Bones’ lineup data is that the Nuggets haven’t done well in his minutes with Jokic this year. Basketball-Reference and NBA.com curiously disagree on if the +/- per 100 possessions is -0.9 or +2.0 (I think they must be counting “possessions” differently), but both sites agree that he is Jokic’s worst Nuggets partner by a significant margin.
   
   But in addition to playing fewer minutes with Jokic this season, Bones simply didn’t get consistent opportunities with him. Their most-used shared lineup played 24 total minutes across 15 games, representing a lot of times where they only overlapped by 2 or 3 possessions in the midst of sequential subs transitioning between first and second units. These aren’t real shifts together. Last season, Jokic and Hyland had two lineups that played significantly together, both with other starters involved:
   
   Will Barton, Jeff Green, and Aaron Gordon: 80 minutes in 11 games; +4.1 points/100 possessions
   Monte Morris, Will Barton, and Aaron Gordon: 69 minutes in 13 games; +7.9 points/100 possessions

How effective Hyland will be for the Clippers, in both the short- and long-term, remains to be seen. He has very much been the kind of player so far in his career where for every game that leaves you dazzled by pull-up threes and creative passes, there are two that leave you frustrated by poor shot selection, turnovers, and defense. Contextualizing his bad lineup data for Denver this year doesn’t excuse his very real weaknesses as a player–and it is very notable that those weaknesses basically put Denver in a position where he could not share the floor with one of their best players. The Clippers will be likewise limited when it comes to finding backcourt partners for Hyland long-term. But when I saw how bad Denver had been with him on the floor this year without a significant drop-off in his individual production, I was spent some time looking into it deeper. I think this is a case of the lineup data telling us about a fatal flaw in the lineups rather than a fatal flaw with the player, which could mean that Bones, in the right context in the Clippers’ rotation, could be more ready to contribute now than his premature departure from Denver might suggest.