Our player preview series for the 2027 Clippers nears its conclusion with rookie guard Keaton Wagler.
Basic Information
Height: 6’6
Weight: 185 pounds
Position: Point Guard/Shooting Guard
Age: 19
Years in NBA: Rookie
College Stats: 17.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, 4.2 assists, and 0.9 steals in 33.9 minutes per game across 37 games played (all starts) on 44.5/39.7/79.6 shooting splits (5.9 3PA, 5.8 FTA) with 59.6% TS
Contract Status: In the first year of a first-round rookie contract, making $9.6M this year
Expectations
Much like with the Clippers’ other young players, expectations for Wagler across the fanbase are quite varied. His strongest proponents think he will push his way into the starting lineup sooner than later, with his combination of shooting, playmaking, and ballhandling making him a must-start player for the talent-deprived Clippers. Wagler skeptics (perhaps those who wanted the Clippers to draft Mikel Brown Jr. or Darius Acuff) are fading him as a player this season due to his youth and lack of physical strength. My expectations fall somewhere in the middle, which is that I think Wagler will (and probably should) come off the bench for much of the season, but that he will have some big games along the way, and will probably start after the trade deadline. It’s very difficult to predict rookie statlines, but something like 11 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists in 25 minutes per game sounds about right.
Strengths
Wagler’s best strength as an NBA player, at least early on, will be his shooting. Wagler was a terrific shooter in his lone season at Illinois at fairly high volume, and the shot has looked pure and confident throughout Summer League and preseason. I don’t think he’s going to be Steph Curry, but Wagler has shown the ability to take threes off the dribble, off movement, and spot-up, and I think he has the capacity to be an above-average three-point shooter at pretty solid volume (5 attempts per game maybe) right away. That has real value, especially considering the variety in the way those threes will come. The midrange game also counts as part of this, but I’m a bit less confident in Wagler’s ability to consistently get those off, especially against starting-level defenses. Over time, his midrange bag should develop and be a go-to shot.
One thing I’ve really liked about Wagler so far in Summer League and preseason is that he hasn’t forced things. For a really young guard, he plays with a certain level of composure and poise that is really impressive. Even when the shots aren’t falling, or the defenders are in his grill, or he’s getting pushed around on defense, it doesn’t seem like he lets those negative things speed him up or push him into trying to get points back on the other end. There will certainly be moments when the pressure gets to him this rookie season, but in general, he seems to let the game come to him and not try to force things, and that’s encouraging.
Weaknesses
If there’s one thing that will probably hold Wagler back from starting earlier this season, it will be his defense. First off, nearly all rookies are bad on that end of the court, even those with good tools, instincts, and effort – NBA offenses and defenses are incredibly complex, and learning how to operate successfully on both ends takes time. For example, Cooper Flagg last season was a pretty poor defender despite having a fearsome defensive reputation and being likely to develop into an All-Defense caliber player in the near future. Wagler is not helped by his skinny frame, as he’s going to get pushed and bullied about early on in his career. I think he will end up being a solid defender in a few years, but this season he’s going to be out of position a lot and will also be targeted one-on-one by opposing stars. It just is what it is for scrawny teenage rookies.
Conversely, the long-term weakness that most threatens Wagler’s ceiling is his ability to get to the rim. Wagler currently does not have the speed, strength, or handle to consistently get by defenders and get to the rim, much less finish when he gets there. That is a fatal flaw in a lead guard, and if Wagler is not able to develop a rim-pressure element to his game, he will probably be limited to a bench combo guard or as more of an off-ball player (there’s nothing wrong with that, per se, it just mitigates his total upside). Some of that will come with time as Wagler puts on muscle, and the handle will certainly develop over the years, so until we see a lot more from him I’m not ready to write him off as a true primary on-ball player. But this season I think he will largely be a jump shooter not a downhill driver, and that will put a damper on his playmaking and scoring.
Summary
It’s rare to see the full weight of an NBA franchise fall entirely on the shoulders of a teenage rookie, and it’s even more unusual for said player to not be a top-three pick in the draft. Yet such is the case for Keaton Wagler and the Clippers: there are other players that are just as if not more important in the short- and medium term (notably Darius Garland), and a few other youngsters that could be part of the core moving forward (Yanic, Baba, Kobe), but if the Clippers look like they’re in a better situation than expected 2-3 years from now, it will probably be because Wagler has popped. He’s the highest draft pick the Clippers have had since Blake Griffin (now close to 20 years ago) and is coming into a very complicated and dire situation. If Wagler’s rookie season goes very well, things will look a whole lot brighter for the Clippers, lost draft picks or not.
