There Was An Update on the Aspiration Story…. Kind Of

Today, rather out of nowhere, ESPN published a lengthy article giving a detailed update on the NBA’s investigation into the Clippers for the Kawhi-Aspiration saga. The article was credited to Shams Charania (ESPN’s leading NBA newsbreaker), Ramona Shelbourne (their leading LA reporter), Baxter Holmes (lead NBA investigative journalist), and Don Van Natta Jr. (another investigative journalist).

The article headline is that the NBA has found no evidence that the Clippers and owner Steve Ballmer paid Kawhi Leonard illegally through Aspiration (or any other company, three others were investigated), and that the NBA has been in negotiation with the Clippers since late July on what their punishment will be, or whether there will be one.

There are a few things that are evident when reading between the lines. First, this story was (primarily) sourced from Clippers’ staff and the NBA Players Association (NBAPA) to put pressure on the league. League sources are mentioned, but the bulk of this is from the Clippers and player side. Second, the league is still pushing for a punishment of some kind, whether because they think the Clippers did it even without hard evidence, to cover their tracks, or to appease other stakeholders. This punishment would be delivered based on illicit introduction of sponsors or for some faulty supervision on the Clippers’ end, not cap circumvention. Third, the NBA is very scared to hand down a “real” punishment without hard evidence because Ballmer and the NBAPA can take them to arbitration and drag this out for years – which would be hideous for PR and league business.

Complicating matters further, the NBA put out a statement shortly after the article came out stating that there were inaccuracies in the reporting. ESPN then put out a counter statement that they stand behind their reporting.

What does this all actually mean? As we have talked about for months on the podcast, the most likely outcome was always going to be that the NBA/investigation never found hard evidence on the Clippers. The question is what would result after that – no punishment, light punishment, heavy punishment? A true strict penalty would seem impossible without a “smoking gun” due to the fear of Ballmer countering legally or other owners being wary of something happening to them just based on circumstantial evidence. Thus, it always seemed like a middle ground, where the Clippers and Ballmer got punished but not too badly, seemed reasonable. That appears to be where this is heading.

For now, there’s still nothing to do but wait. The reporting from ESPN shows that there are negotiations happening on what the Clippers’ punishment will be. The Clippers, of course, are pushing for no punishment, both because they don’t want any penalties and because it would mean their names would be officially cleared of wrongdoing. My guess would be that at some point they accept a punishment just to get the Kawhi trade cleared and so that everyone can move on. But we will just see.