With players opting out and injuries, everyone in the bubble has had to tweak their lineups and rotations. The Los Angeles Clippers are no exception to this, but it’s also a familiar concept to them. They have load managed Kawhi Leonard’s minutes throughout the season and in the bubble have had to endure the absences of key guys like Lou Williams, Patrick Beverley, and Montrezl Harrell. Doc Rivers has had to get creative with all of his lineups, and with the Clippers locked into a top seed in the Western Conference, he has had room to experiment. With a deep bench combined with two superstars in Leonard and Paul George who can play multiple positions, LA has options. With their first-round clash against the Dallas Mavericks on the horizon, the time is now for the Clippers to trot out their better lineups. The eight bubble games gave the coaching staff some time to figure out what works and which combinations do not.
For this piece, I looked at three specific lineups for the Clippers based on the data provided by the NBA’s stats website. Two of them will be crucial lineups. The Clippers may use them to start games and may use them in crunch time as well. The third and final lineup is one that might not have been the best or seldom-used, yet it caught the eye. It could be a unique combination of players that offers something different to the Clippers.
(Note: when looking at all of the lineups played by the Clippers, I filtered out the ones who played less than 30 combined minutes together)
Best Lineup 1
Patrick Beverley, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Marcus Morris, Ivica Zubac
This lineup is one of the more obvious ones you could list for the Clippers. Rivers started this lineup against Phoenix earlier this month and it is one he continually goes back to. With Morris at the four, the Clippers can stretch out the floor on offense while also giving some switchability on defense. With Beverley, George, and Leonard they have a trio of elite perimeter defenders who you don’t have to worry about when matched up in isolation situations. They also work extremely hard off the ball in order not to get caught off guard if their man cuts past them or receives the ball.
LA also will not be sacrificing on the glass either with Zubac there to clean up any misses. He currently leads the Clippers in rebounds per game and also can help generate second-chance points with an average of nearly three offensive boards per game. His size will also help when it comes to protecting the rim. With four guys who all can play on the perimeter, Zubac is the only real big in the lineup. He will be there as the last line of defense if opponents come crashing into the lane.
Offensively, the Clippers would still have both George and Leonard to draw the attention of defenses. Morris would be there as a kick out option but can also hit a jumper off the dribble at times. His efficiency has been around average (52.3 true shooting percentage) so finding him good open looks should be the criteria if he’s in this lineup. The offensive game plan here is simple: with two creators already on the court, the rest of the three will slide to secondary roles.
It’s a group that Doc Rivers has gone to plenty throughout the year. Their 147 minutes together is second most amongst 5-man lineups and although they’ve only featured in 11 games, it’s been effective. This lineup has the 5th highest net rating at 22.9 (121.9 ORtg, 99 DRtg) with an above-average efficiency shooting rate as well (59.8 TS%).
With four of their penciled in starters in this lineup along with the scoring potential that Morris brings, this could be a solid lineup for the Clippers to rely on moving forward. They can shut down people on one end and put up points on the other.
Best Lineup 2
Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Montrezl Harrell
This combination is the one that puts all five of the Clippers best players on the court. With Williams and Beverley you have two polar opposite point guards who fit well together. One, Williams, is a scorer who can catch fire at any time. His ball-handling and ability to get defenders in the air is troubling for any opponent. He’s been one of the best off the bench scorers this past decade, and if for some reason neither of LA’s superstars take the last shot of a game, he is always an option. Williams gives LA three guys on the floor who can shoot effectively off the dribble. It’s good offensive versatility to have and can be used to exploit weaknesses of a defense.
The other part of the backcourt is one of the best defensive guards in the NBA. Beverley will get into the grill of the opponent’s best guard and hound them the entire time he is on the court. He gives a spark to the Clippers and brings a toughness that is welcomed. On defensive possessions late in the game, he feels like a lock-in any lineup. His three-point shooting is decent enough to where he can knock down a jumper if left open. Beverley shoots 38.8 percent from three and defenses can’t treat him as a non-factor.
Harrell brings a slightly different dynamic then Zubac. While he may not be as stout defensively, Harrell does bring a lot of positives on offense. He’s an excellent rim runner and is a major threat going to the hoop in the pick and roll. But similar to Zubac, Harrell does offer them a solid option inside the paint. If there are mismatches in the post then the Clippers can throw it into Harrell who has impressive shooting numbers from that range.
Statistically, this group hasn’t played as much as others. This could partly be due to how situational this combination could be (it could be a potential crunch time/game-closing lineup). They are eighth in minutes played (56) and 10th in net rating. While they have an exceptional defensive rating of 84.4, small sample aside, their offense isn’t where you’d expect it to be with this group. Their offensive net rating is at 98.4, the second-lowest of any lineup that played more than 50 minutes together. They shot around average from the field (51.9 TS%) but in crunch time, possessions are going to be limited and the Clippers have shown they are still able to come up with a bucket when needed.
Like with the first lineup, LA has two superstars on the court along with guys who play a sizable chunk of minutes each game. If the game is on the line, it should be reasonable to expect these five to be trotted out on the floor to get the job done. That poor offensive rating seems like a fluke – this lineup is absolutely stacked on that end, and should be able to score against any opponent.
The Interesting Lineup
Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams, Landry Shamet, Kawhi Leonard, Montrezl Harrell
Now, this lineup brings in a new player with different skill sets. Shamet offers the Clippers another guard ball-handling option on the floor and can get the Clippers into their designed actions. Like George, the Clippers with this group have a guy who they can run off screens. Whether it’s for three-point attempts or as a decoy to get defenses reacting one way, LA has the option to use him in this role. Among Clippers who are involved in coming off screens, Shamet is second in points per possession (1.26) and eFG percentage (62.7). While it’s true that his frequency for this play type is half as much as George, in the minutes he plays, it’s good to have this idea in your back pocket.
Shamet isn’t going to be the first option when Leonard or George is on the floor, but he can be used to generate looks. His shooting could be valuable for when defenses collapse in on Leonard or Williams. Shamet is knocking down 37.5 percent of his attempts from three and has an overall true shooting percentage of 58. He has had some rough games in the bubble, particularly on defense, but also has shown potential to be a solid player in the right lineups.
The most intriguing part is with the three guards, with LA only having one real forward out there in Leonard. Kawhi would be the main man offensively with Lou Will being the second primary scorer. The rest of the guys will be there for secondary chances or used as a relief outlet when defenders rotate over to help out on the main guys. There will be plenty for everyone. Harrell will also be there for putbacks or dump-offs in the lane.
You have to wonder about the defense with this lineup given the struggles of three of the guys on the court (Williams, Shamet, Harrell). Against a stretch big, the Clippers could leak points on this end of the court. With the previous lineup, there was George on the perimeter. Shamet is not a like for like replacement at all despite him playing the three in this scenario. This could be a decent lineup for LA when George needs a rest: it’s smart to stagger the minutes of your two superstars, and Landry can at last somewhat fill that role offensively. It is worth acknowledging the risks that do come along with it.
The numbers, however, seem to tell a different story. They currently have an offensive rating of 118.6 and on defense, it’s at 77.5 (!). This leaves them with a net rating of 41.1, second highest of any Clippers lineup that has played more than 30 minutes together. The one caveat here is that this lineup has only played 36 total minutes together, barely clearing that limit.
The numbers of minutes played together are a bit small, and the recent struggles of Shamet along with Beverley still getting into the swing of things don’t help. But this is a group worth watching out for and their numbers do seem to help reduce the worries this lineup brings on paper. It might not be one they play much when the Mavericks have Kristaps Porzingis on the court but it could in play in other situations against Dallas and hopefully moving forward for LA.
