Our exit interview series on the 2023 Clippers continues with starting center Ivica Zubac.
Basic Information
Height: 7’0
Weight: 240 pounds
Position: Center
Age: 26
Years in NBA: 7
Key Regular Season Stats: 10.8 points, 1.0 assists, 9.9 rebounds, 0.4 steals, 1.3 blocks, and 1.5 turnovers in 28.6 minutes per game across 76 games played (all starts) on 63.4/69.7 (3.1 FTA attempts) shooting splits (66.1 True Shooting)
Postseason Stats: 9.2 points, 0.6 assists, 9.9 rebounds, 0.6 steals, 0.2 blocks, and 2.2 turnovers in 26.0 minutes per game across five games played (all starts) on 56.7/75.0 shooting splits (3.2 FTA) shooting splits (62.1 True Shooting)
Expectations
For the first time in Ivica Zubac’s Clippers tenure, he truly had no competition for minutes at center. The Clippers’ abundance of smaller players indicated their desire to play small on the second unit – and for key moments – but there were no challengers for true big man minutes. Therefore, it was expected that Big Zu would sop up more minutes than ever before, close out most games, and play a critical role as the defensive anchor for a theoretically defensive-minded team. In terms of production, scoring in the low double-digits with rebounding at around 10 per game were reasonable expectations of what Zu could provide with a higher minutes count.
Reality
Zu roared out of the gate, averaging 9.7 points and 11.9 rebounds per game in the Clippers’ seven October games while racking up 20 blocks. The Clippers were 3-4, but their defense ranked 5th in the NBA in large part due to Zu’s insane rim protection and rebounding.
Zu’s strong start continued in November, as he averaged 11.1 points and 11.3 rebounds in 31.2 minutes per game while scoring at very good efficiency (65.1 True Shooting). The Clippers went 10-6, and while their defense slipped to 9th, it remained very good even as their offense improved. Zu’s blocks fell, as he sent back only 21 shots across 16 games, but overall it seemed like the Clippers might be getting their act together.
Then, like so many of the Clippers, Zu’s production fell off in December and never really recovered. His scoring jumped in March and April to 12.3 points and 14 points respectively, as Russell Westbrook was able to unlock more offense for the big man. However, the defense and rebounding was not close to where it was early in the season, and the Clippers’ defense as a whole continued to fall across the season. It was hard to say Zu played badly, per se, but he had a lot of games where 10 points, 8 rebounds, and meh defense was his contribution. Compared to Moses Brown and super-small ball Zu was invaluable, but it said more about the rest of the Clippers’ rotation than Zu himself.
The 2023 playoffs started off well too, with Ivica Zubac recording 11 points on 5-8 shooting and 15 rebounds while outplayed Suns’ center De’Andre Ayton in a Clippers’ win. Sadly it was all downhill from there, with Zu not recording double-digits in scoring or rebounding until Game 5 when he had 16 and 10. In all five games Zu was a negative in +/- (though the Clippers lost four of five, so it makes sense), and even in the Clippers’ win they won largely in the minutes Zu was off the floor. Zu also recorded 11 costly turnovers across the series, a high number for a guy who is mostly a play finisher and doesn’t have the ball in his hands much. A disappointing end to a somewhat disappointing season.
If you look at Ivica Zubac’s per 100 numbers for the 2023 season, you’ll notice they’re very similar to his previous Clippers’ seasons. His scoring and assists dipped, but his scoring efficiency, rebounding, and blocks were all right in line with his career averages. Therefore, it’s tough to defend the above statement about Zu’s season being disappointing with numbers. One notable stat is that he recorded 77 assists to 117 turnovers, a massively negative ratio, after his previous Clippers’ campaigns were all slightly positive in that regard. Still, Zu largely met expectations – it just felt like he slipped after a particularly good start, and that there were too many games he was kind of “just there”. At this point, this is who Zu is, and that’s a solid NBA starting center who is probably anywhere from the Clippers’ 3rd to 5th best player.
Future with Clippers
While Ivica Zubac is signed for two more years at a reasonable $10.9M and then $11.4M, his disappointing playoffs and the Clippers’ underwhelming 2023 season writ large has made him more likely to be traded than he has been since he arrived on the Clippers. That’s not to say I think he will be moved – the Clippers don’t have a backup center under contract, and even if they re-sign Mason Plumlee he’s not really a suitable starter on a contending team. However, I think it’s fair to say that Zu has more or less reached his ceiling as an NBA player as he heads towards his late-20s and having played close to 10K minutes across seven seasons. If Zu is traded, presumably it would be for another center, or at least a bigger power forward who can legitimately play center for extended minutes (John Collins?).
There’s also no question that Zu is one of the Clippers’ more valuable trade pieces considering his age, contract, production, and reliability. If the Clippers were to make a big swing on a star piece, it’s somewhat likely that Zu would be in the trade return going the other way. That could be for Bradley Beal, Zach LaVine, Trae Young, or whoever your trade of choice is.
Ultimately, the Clippers’ lack of options at center, Zu’s proven fit next to the Clippers’ stars, and his being on a good contract in his prime are all more reasons for them to keep him than trade him. Thus, I’d expect the Clippers’ longest tenured player to continue on as a Clipper for at least the start of next season.
