LA and Dallas will meet in the Western Conference’s 2-7 match-up. While the Clippers have title aspirations, the young Mavericks boast the most efficient offense in NBA history–meaning that LA can’t afford to overlook their lower-seeded opponent. Read on for a comprehensive series preview of the first-round battle between the Clippers and Mavericks.
The Big Picture
The Clippers enjoyed their best regular season in franchise history, finishing with a top-2 seed for the first time ever. Much of the season, though, was a slog. Paul George missed the first three weeks of the season as he recovered from shoulder surgery. Kawhi Leonard sat out the back end of every back-to-back. Patrick Beverley missed time, too.
In total, the team used 32 starting lineups in their 72 games. By my count, the trio of Beverley, George, and Leonard only started 28 of those games together. The team went 22-6 in those games–and 27-17 in their others. The team routinely approached regular-season games lackadaisically, resulting in disappointing losses, including to the Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks. They lost to the Sacramento Kings by 21, the Minnesota Timberwolves by 27, and perhaps most infamously, the Memphis Grizzlies by 26 in a game where the Clippers only led for 14 seconds after Ivica Zubac made the opening bucket.
It was clear–and frustrating for fans–that the team’s approach to the regular season was to prioritize caution and health for the post-season, not chasing the top seed. The early returns are good: the team should be fully healthy heading into game 1 of the first round. Patrick Beverley missed the end of the regular season as the team was extremely caution with a minor calf injury, and Montrezl Harrell is still completing his re-entry quarantine after, but both are expected to play Monday, and Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are both entering the postseason free of nagging injuries.
That’s crucial for the Clippers. For teams with title aspirations, the NBA playoffs are a long affair–two months of high-minutes, high-intensity basketball. With a compressed schedule in the Orlando bubble, games will be played every other day–so while no travel helps, fatigue will still accumulate over the course of eight weeks for teams that can’t finish rounds early.
It’s a lesson that these Clippers can learn from their Lob City predecessors. Never progressing out of the second round, and repeatedly work down by injuries to their key players, the Clippers never won a first-round series in fewer than 7 games during their six consecutive playoff appearances with Chris Paul. Winning this series, of course, is essential for a team with championship aspirations–but in order to realize those aspirations, LA needs to not just win, but win quickly to protect health and rest.
The Schedule
Game 1: Monday, August 17th, 6:00pm PT, ESPN/Prime Ticket
Game 2: Wednesday, August 19th, 6:00pm PT, TNT/Prime Ticket
Game 3: Friday, August 21st, 6:00pm PT, TNT/Prime Ticket
Game 4: Sunday, August 23rd, 12:30pm PT, ABC (no Prime Ticket broadcast)
Game 5 (if necessary): Tuesday, August 25th, Time/Channel TBA
Game 6 (if necessary): Thursday, August 27th, Time/Channel TBA
Game 7 (if necessary): Saturday, August 29th, Time/Channel TBA
The Antagonist
Some people will tell you that the Dallas Mavericks are the best offensive team in NBA history. What they mean is that the Dallas Mavericks had the most efficient regular-season offense in NBA history. An impressive accomplishment, to be sure! And certainly a strong indication that Dallas is an elite offensive team… but perhaps not that they’ll be harder to defend than, say, the Golden State Warriors of the last few years.
I’m reminded a bit of Erik Olsgaard’s recent deep dive on the Clippers’ offense and their dependence on mid-range shots. He advances the argument–I think convincingly–that while the Clippers’ tendency to play multiple mid-range shooters negatively impacts their efficiency, it’s a sign that the team’s offense should get better, not worse, in the playoffs. As games slow down and defenses key in on star players and signature actions, the Clippers’ ability to field a lineup with multiple guys who can create their own moderate-efficiency shots gives them a diversified attack that is sustainable in playoff environments.
The Mavs don’t have that luxury. Their historically great offense is an efficient machine, but that machine has one engine: Luka Doncic. The second-year star averages 28.8 points and 8.8 assists per game, posting the league’s second-highest usage rate at 36.8%. Their second offensive star, Kristaps Porzingis, is a potent scoring threat but not much of a creator for himself or others. Beyond that pairing, Dallas’ second-tier creative offensive players are simply underwhelming: Tim Hardaway Jr., J.J. Barea, and Trey Burke.
Four Mavs other than Doncic average more than 2 assists per game–including Barea, who has been out of the rotation lately, and Jalen Brunson, who is out for the season following shoulder surgery. Creating non-Luka offense will come down to Burke and Delon Wright, as well as Hardaway and Seth Curry (a pair that is more likely to create for themselves than others). It’s not that these players are incapable. After all, they’ve had moderate success in this role all year for an elite offensive team that finished 11 games over .500. But I have faith in the Clippers’ defenders to handle things against that crew.
Speaking of the Clippers’ defenders, the pairing of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard (and even maybe Rodney McGruder in spot minutes!) is one reason why the Clippers match up so well with the Mavericks. Dallas’ aforementioned potent offensive attack is built around Doncic’s elite driving and distribution skills, playing 5-out with potent spot-up shooters and two pick-and-pop bigs screening for him.
Where the Mavericks become such a difficult cover is twofold: first, when teams bring help to contain Doncic’s penetration, he dishes to high-efficiency shooters like Curry (45.2% from deep), Burke (43.2%), Hardaway (39.8%), Dorian Finney-Smith (37.6%), and Wright (37%). Second, the Mavericks play modern, versatile centers in Porzingis and Maxi Kleber, who are efficient spotting up as well as in the pick-and-pop. Traditional, rim protecting centers (like Ivica Zubac) are forced to not only contain the slippery Doncic, who excels at changing his pace and direction while driving, but also recover to defend on the perimeter and contest jumpers from shooting bigs.
Ultimately, though, Dallas’ offense is a somewhat immutable strength: they’re going to score. The best you can hope for in a series is to keep their average closer to 110 points a game and prevent 130- and 140-point explosions. You beat the Mavericks on the other end, where they field a below-average (18th place) defense and an average (14th place) defensive rebounding rate. Beyond having a pedestrian-at-best defense overall, Dallas simply does not have the bodies to guard superstar wings like Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. Finney-Smith is a quality 3-and-D forward–not that anyone is locking down PG or Kawhi, but DFS is a good defensive role player.
Beyond Finney-Smith… there’s nothing. Doncic is a poor defender, and the team’s over-reliance on his offensive creation means he can’t exert energy chasing a superstar on defense. Beyond that, Curry, Hardaway, and Burke are guys that PG and Kawhi should feast upon. Maxi Kleber, a smart and disciplined defender who might be worth a look against a slower, stronger forward like Leonard, is the Mavs’ only rotation big beyond Porzingis–if he’s playing alongside Kristaps to defend Kawhi, Dallas’ only other active big is Boban Marjanovic. And if Kleber gets into foul trouble, Rick Carlisle will lose one of the few rotation players he can really trust. The last wild card defenders are Justin Jackson or Michael Kidd-Gilchrist in spot minutes, but they’re so bad offensively that Dallas can’t play 5-out and space the floor around Luka.
This is a growing year for the Mavericks, who missed the playoffs last season as Doncic won rookie of the year. He’s already likely an All-NBA First Team player at 21 years old, and there’s plenty of reason to be happy with an above-.500 season and playoff experience for their young core.
Sub-Plots
- Can Zu stay on the floor? This is the big question for the Clippers in this series. In these teams’ last regular-season contest (the only one after Dwight Powell went out for the year), Zubac dominated with 21 points and 15 rebounds on 10/10 shooting in 24 minutes. However, Porzingis also had his best game of the season series, with 30 points on 9-19 shooting. In the first two games, where Zubac played less, Kristaps totaled 25 points on a putrid 8-30 from the floor. If Zubac can contain the Doncic-Porzingis pick-and-pops adequately, he’ll bully Dallas inside. If not, the Clippers will have to give minutes to more mobile defensive options at center, like JaMychal Green, Montrezl Harrell, and possibly even little-used veteran Joakim Noah. That adjustment will cost them in other areas.
- Pat, Landry, and Trez: Three Clippers are entering this series with uncertain statuses: starting point guard Patrick Beverley, who missed the team’s final 5 seeding games with a minor calf injury; bench sharpshooter Landry Shamet, who missed the team’s last 2 games in a walking boot with a foot injury; and sixth man of the year finalist Montrezl Harrell, who has yet to be cleared from quarantine following an extended absence from the bubble for personal reasons. Harrell should play on Monday, though his conditioning and rustiness are unpredictable after such a long time without game minutes. Additionally, Beverley will almost certainly play, as he was held out of seeding games as a precaution. Shamet, who has a history with foot injuries and was spotted in a walking boot last week, is expected to play, but with more doubt than the other two.
- Spot Minutes: Rodney McGruder had a pretty miserable season for the Clippers this year, but he’s been more respectable in the bubble. He doesn’t figure to be in the Clippers’ normal rotation (though I think there’s a convincing case for him to be the 10th man ahead of Reggie Jackson at this point), but specifically for this Doncic match-up, McGruder has a case to be the Clippers’ third-best option behind George and Leonard (Patrick Beverley, who would struggle against the 6’7″ Doncic, and Marcus Morris are the other two Clippers who have a case). Depending on how Rivers manages his stars’ minutes load and lineups, he could go to Rodney in spurts in this series.
- Boban: Former Clipper Boban Marjanovic is Dallas’ only rostered big beyond Porzingis and Kleber, which essentially guarantees that we’ll see him at some point this series, even if he isn’t featured nightly. The 7’6″ Marjanovic got a surprise start against the Clippers two weeks ago, but played just the first 6 minutes and didn’t get off of the bench again. Boban is a situational guy for Rick Carlisle: he only played in 44 of Dallas’ 75 regular-season games, and played single-digit minutes in 27 of those. But he’s also capable of making an impact: he hit double-digit points in 14 of those 44 appearances, including 12 points and 7 rebounds against LAC in January. If Dallas is going to counter the Clippers’ second-unit, Boban’s ability to be an x-factor (and use his length to bother Montrezl Harrell) could be what swings a game their way.
- Depth and Fouls: One of the Clippers’ biggest advantages over the Mavericks is their depth. While players like Reggie Jackson and Patrick Patterson are flawed, they are still useful in reserve roles–and the Clippers could easily go a full series without playing either. The Mavericks only have eight guys who they really feel good about in their rotation, and the deeper reserves who could see minutes–Barea, Marjanovic, Jackson, and Kidd-Gilchrist–aren’t ideal fits with how Dallas typically likes to play. Vijay Vemu wrote on how getting to the free throw line is crucial to the Clippers attack, and they lead the league in free throw attempts per game. Dallas’ rotation doesn’t have much room for foul trouble, especially for Porzingis and Kleber.
- Preview Pod: I was joined by Dr. Shap, Robert Flom, and The Athletic’s Mavericks beat writer Tim Cato on a special episode of The Lob, The Jam, The Podcast where we previewed this series and got Tim’s perspective on the Mavericks. Check it out!
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