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What did we learn from Clippers – Denver game 1?

Kawhi Leonard Gary Harris LA Clippers Denver Nuggets NBA Playoffs Second Round Game 1

Photo courtesy L.A. Clippers.

The Clippers blew out Denver in game 1, and got a head start in the second-round series between the two. But after tying LA 31-31 in the first quarter, the fatigued Nuggets faded fast, scoring just 36 points in the second and third quarter combined. Did the Clippers play well? Sure. Can we look at some sequences and credit their defense? Of course. But it’s hard to look past Denver having just one day off following a game 7 win at the buzzer Tuesday evening. Jamal Murray, who was the Nuggets’ savior in the first round, played nearly 170 games over the team’s final four games in the first round.

I would argue that we can actually glean very little from this game due to the fatigue factor. If you picked Clippers in 4 before this series began, then sure, you can be getting the brooms ready after game 1.

But if you picked Clippers in 5, or, like me, 6, why would this change anything for you? I picked the Clippers in 6 in part because I expected them to win game 1 because of Denver’s fatigue! And this wasn’t some magic Lucas prediction that I’m bragging about–pretty much everyone I spoke to in LA and Denver media was on the same page that game 1 was going to be extremely difficult for the Nuggets from an energy perspective.

So yeah, the Nuggets came out with a hot shooting burst, riding their momentum. Then the starters went to the bench, the Clippers built a lead, and all of a sudden Nikola Jokic checked back in to a game where he was down 12 and realized how exhausted he was.

When the thing that was supposed to happen happens exactly like it was supposed to, it’s hard to say we learned a ton watching the script play out. I said before the series–and maintain after game 1–that game 2 will be the most important game in this series. The Nuggets had about 46 hours from when Mike Conley’s would-have-been game-winner rimmed out to the jump ball Thursday night against the Clippers. Now, they will have an extra day of rest on Friday and 48 more hours to decide how they want to attack the monster that is the Clippers team in game 2.

Denver just came back from down 3-1 against the Utah Jazz, but it’s a lot easier to have the confidence to play from behind against a team that you know you’re better than. Denver was favored in the series as the higher seed–even as confidence in them waned due to early struggles, there was no undoing a season of the Nuggets being the clear third-best team in the conference. In the second round, the Nuggets won’t be able to fall back on being better than the Clippers. The series won’t be over if the Clippers win game 2… but I don’t like Denver’s chances of winning 4 out of 5 against LAC, and there’s a decent possibility that Jokic stops playing hard if the series feels unwinnable.

If LA wins game 2, then Clippers in 5 becomes a lot more likely than Clippers in 6. If the Nuggets throw their best punch, I believe a game between these two games could be a tight coin flip down the stretch. That punch is coming in game 2, but if the Nuggets are down 2-0, it’s a coin flip to see if they’ll even swing again in game 3, pretty drastically reducing their odds of extending the series.

But if the Nuggets are able to come away with game 2 and tie the series at 1-1, then the Clippers’ big game 1 will be erased. I won’t quite be at the point of worrying that they’ll lose the series, but I don’t think it’ll be a 5-game series–the Nuggets will keep fighting and steal at least one more.

We’ll learn a lot more Saturday than we did Thursday, but let’s run through some quick takeaways just as well:

Things we already knew:

Things Game 1 Suggested:

Want the opposing perspective on how the Clippers fared against Denver in game 1? Check out what our friend TJ McBride had to take away from game 1 at Mile High Sports.