We are not quite halfway through the 2025 NBA season, but we sure are close, with most teams having played around 37-38 games (the Magic are somehow at 40) out of the usual 82 total. With the Clippers’ game today being postponed due to the fires in Los Angeles (hope all of you LA-based readers are making it through ok and staying safe), it felt like a good time to check in on the Western Conference and where the Clippers fit in.

Readers of my annual NBA Division previews will remember I had the Clippers tied for 10^th in the West (with the Rockets) in my preseason predictions. I did other predictions on Twitter and had the Clippers anywhere from 10^th to 12^th varying on the Kawhi injury news. In short, I thought the Clippers would be towards the tail end of the play-in, or just out of the play-in entirely – but a competitive team that would not be towards the very bottom of the conference.

Up until a couple of weeks ago, the Clippers were on the path to proving me very wrong indeed. At some points they were as high as the 4^th seed in the West, and were in the 5^th-6^th range for much of the first two months of the season without any games played from Kawhi Leonard. The Warriors fizzled after a hot start, the Timberwolves were disappointing, and the Kings were so dysfunctional that they fired head coach Mike Brown, who they just signed to an extension this past summer. Meanwhile, the Suns benched $50M man Bradley Beal along with starting center Jusuf Nurkic and have been embroiled in trade rumors for weeks. The Grizzlies and Mavericks have been good but decimated by injuries. It seemed like the perfect Western Conference for the steady, competent, defense-first Clippers to thrive in.

Unfortunately, the Clippers have stumbled in recent weeks (1-4 in their last five games) while the Wolves and Kings have surged, and the Suns and Warriors have stabilized a bit. Despite all their injuries, the Mavs and Grizzlies are also hanging in as top seeds. The West thus remains highly competitive and tightly contested as we near the half-way point of the season. The Grizzlies, the 3^rd seed at 24-14, are just six games ahead of the 17-19 Suns all the way down in 12^th. If you trim off the Grizzlies and go to the 4^th place Nuggets at 22-15, it’s even closer, with just 4.5 games separating nine teams. The Clippers sit squarely in the middle of the pack, tied for 7^th with a 20-17 record.

Qualitatively, the Clippers to this point are relatively in line with where they should be. That is, their Net Rating of 0.9 is good for 14^th in the NBA and 8^th in the West, or about accurate for their standings and win totals. Thus, it’s reasonable to assume they’ll remain at around a slightly above .500 pace the rest of the season – though a healthy Kawhi Leonard could change that. And, ultimately, Kawhi is maybe the hardest player in the NBA to give a prediction on right now. He’s only played twice so far, and looked nowhere close to “2024 regular season Kawhi” in those games. How long will it take Kawhi to get off a minutes restriction, if he can even stay healthy the rest of the year? Is he ever able to get back to that level he was at last season? Both are unanswerable questions. A good median outcome, that he’s a very good player at around 28-32 minutes per game for the last 30 games of the season, would help the Clippers immensely – but they’ve also had good injury luck outside of Kawhi, and that’s not guaranteed to stick the rest of the year.

Leaving injuries and Kawhi aside, there are a few final wrinkles. The first is that the Clippers have had one of the hardest schedules in the NBA to this point. Their home and road splits are relatively even, but they have already played the Thunder, Rockets, and Nuggets several times and not gone up against a number of the NBA’s bottom feeders. Because of that, power rankings such as ESPN’s BPI that factor in strength of schedule have the Clippers as being better than their record of raw net rating. Similarly, Tankathon’s strength of schedule remaining (based purely on opponent win percentage) has the Clippers at 21^st. Therefore, optimists can say that the Clippers should outperform what they’ve done in the first part of the season based on an easier second-half schedule. Finally, multiple teams either behind or close to them in the standings (the Lakers and to a lesser extent the Spurs) have far outperformed their Net Rating, indicating they will slow down as the season goes along.

Let’s start at the top and bottom of the West and then work our way into the middle. The Pelicans and Jazz are certainly finishing below the Clippers. The Blazers are technically only seven games back, but it’s hard to imagine the Clippers sliding below Portland. That gives the Clippers a floor of the 12^th seed. The Thunder are secure at the first seed, and while the Clippers are only five games behind the Rockets and 3.5 behind the Grizzlies, it’s difficult to see them climbing above those squads (or all of the other four teams in their way) to get to a top three seed. That gives the Clippers a fair ceiling of the 4^th seed.

There are four other teams below the Clippers right now: the Warriors, Kings, Spurs, and Suns. The Suns have the highest pedigree of those teams but are lowest in Net Rating and have few avenues to improve their roster barring a Jimmy Butler miracle trade. The Spurs are only a couple games back of the Clippers but also possess a negative Net Rating and do not have a strong incentive to be good this year, at least compared to more veteran teams with higher expectations. The Warriors are fine but seem just as mediocre as last year – and shockingly committed to such mediocrity. The Kings, somewhat surprisingly, are the most dangerous of these teams, with a 3.0 Net Rating far better than their .500 record and a recent surge that has won them six games in a row. If I were betting on any of these teams passing the Clippers, it would be the Kings. Ultimately, I’d guess the Spurs slide to 12^th and the Suns or Warriors end in 11^th.

There are four other teams above the Clippers: the Nuggets, Mavericks, Lakers, and Wolves. The Nuggets have roster issues, but as long as they have Nikola Jokic in his prime, they will be a very good regular season team. I’d pencil them above the Clippers. The Mavericks are dealing with injuries to Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, and where they fall really depends on when those guys get back. When they are healthy, they have been on a different level than the Clips, so I’ll keep them above for now. The Wolves’ Net Rating is slightly better than the Clippers, and they’re a team that has more avenues for win-now trades if they choose. However, the Wolves have had truly insane injury luck: all seven of their top players have appeared in all 37 of their games, and Mike Conley has missed just four. If their injury luck runs out, they are a prime candidate to drop in the standings. Finally, the Lakers have a lackluster -2.4 Net Rating but somehow possess a 20-16 record. Considering the Lakers’ own injury luck (LeBron has missed three games, Anthony Davis two, and Austin Reaves five), they are another candidate to slip.

At the end of the day, if you want to cast a really wide net, the Clippers could reasonably finish anywhere from 4^th to 12^th. After doing more of a thorough review, I’d say their likely outcomes are more in the 6^th to 10^th range – play-in territory. Considering how much of the season Kawhi Leonard has missed, that’s not bad! Above all else, Clippers’ fans wanted a competitive, fun team that would be at least somewhat in the mix, and I think that’s what they will end up with. If Kawhi can get healthy, stay healthy, and raise his play to somewhere even close to where it was last year, those expectations could shift up. But I can’t get there quite yet.

The Clippers’ Place in the Western Conference Near the Midpoint of the 2025 Season
Robert Flom

The Clippers are one of the few teams (there are 11 games, so 22 teams in action) not playing on Friday, as their last two games of the season come back to back on Saturday and Sunday. Here’s a quick look at the Clippers’ rooting interests for the games on Friday.

The Games

Rockets vs Hornets: Doesn’t matter, will be tanktastic

Pistons vs Pacers: Doesn’t matter

Heat vs Wizards: Doesn’t matter

Sixers vs Hawks: Doesn’t matter

Raptors vs Celtics: Doesn’t matter

Magic vs Nets: Doesn’t matter

Grizzlies vs Bucks: Doesn’t matter, but should be fun

Knicks vs Pelicans: Bing bong!  The Clippers should be rooting for the Knicks here, as another Pelicans loss would make the Clippers finishing ahead of them all but a certainty. Unfortunately, the Knicks are locked into the 5^th seed, so they have nothing to play for here, and I’d expect them to rest most if not all of their veterans. The Pelicans, at home, should win this one. But who knows!

Bulls vs Mavs: This one doesn’t *really* matter for the Clippers but I’m rooting for the Bulls anyway. As mentioned previously, I don’t like the Mavs, and a loss here would cinch their not reaching the play-in tournament, which would be delightful. Not a big deal, but would be a nice bonus.

Warriors vs Kings: Well…. it depends. The Warriors losing would help solidify the Clippers’ hold on the 5^th seed, but there are reasons for the Clippers to want to avoid that seed. If they can keep pace with the Warriors until the end of the season, they can maneuver in the standings to try to get the matchups they like, while locking into the 5^th round would get them aligned with the Suns in the first round and Nuggets in the second. I might actually be rooting for the Warriors in this one. Also, it seems as though the Kings will be resting almost everyone, so the Warriors will probably win regardless.

Suns vs Lakers: The Suns winning would be great. This would fully lock them into the 4 seed, meaning they wouldn’t have anything to play for against the Clippers in the last game of the season. The Lakers’ loss would also mean they could not pass the Clippers in the standings, locking the Clippers into a top 7 seed. Also, the Lakers losing is nearly always something to root for.

Well, that about does it. By the end of the day Friday we should have a very good knowledge into what the Clippers need to do on Saturday and Sunday to secure an optimal playoff spot – 6^th – or a sub-optimal but still better than play-in spot at 5^th. If the Lakers and Pelicans lose, and the Warriors win, the Clippers should be very well set to get the 5^th or 6^th seed, and should be able to dance around the standings to get whatever works best for them. If the Lakers, Pelicans, and Warriors win, the pressure will really be on for the Clippers to clean up against the tanking Blazers on Saturday.. and could set up a legitimately important last game of the season against the Suns on Sunday.

Clippers Rooting Interests April 7 2023
Robert Flom

As the Clippers have a few days of rest in between games, it seemed like a good time to take stock of the Western Conference with around 15 games left in the 2023 NBA season.

The Top Dog

Denver Nuggets – Even after three bad losses in a row, the 46-22 Nuggets have a healthy lead for the 1 seed in the West. If they go just .500 the rest of the way, they will almost certainly have homecourt throughout the West playoffs, which is even more advantageous than for most teams considering Denver’s altitude edge. The Nuggets have the second-best offense in the NBA and a league-average defense, giving them a 3.9 Net Rating. Nikola Jokic remains one of the best – if not the best – player in basketball. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. are back and playing well. The Nuggets’ bench is a concern, but they have probably the best top 6 in the NBA (right there with the Celtics and Bucks), and probably have enough bench players to scrape by. Anything less than a Western Conference Finals appearance would be a disaster, and considering the homecourt, continuity, and playoff experience edge they’re likely to hold over most of their opponents in the Western Conference, they really should be bound for the NBA Finals.

Solid as a Rock

Sacramento Kings – Somehow, someway, the Kings have been one of the most stable teams in the NBA this season. They haven’t had any notable controversies, have been winning at a decent clip just about all year, and haven’t been plagued by injuries. The result is a 40-26 record and a 2.9 Net Rating, good for 7^th in the NBA. It’s hard to pencil them in as a contender when so many of their key players – De’Aaron Fox, Malik Monk, Keegan Murray, and Davion Mitchell – are untested in the playoffs, and nigh impossible considering their defense is ranked 25^th in the entire NBA. Still, they have the top-ranked offense, by far, and will be tough for any team to stop. It’s hard to see them winning a championship with that defense, but a round or two? Why not.

Who Knows

Phoenix Suns – The Suns are 3-0 in the games Kevin Durant has played, and 7-4 since the trade writ large. Their 37-30 record gives them a decent cushion for the 4^th seed, but Durant being out the next 2-3 weeks makes it unlikely they can push for 2 or 3. More worryingly for the Suns, a best-case scenario for KD is that he gets like seven more regular season games with his new team, and 10 games total together is not a lot of time to gel and get rotations figured out for a deep playoff run. If all four of KD, Chris Paul, Devin Booker, and De’Andre Ayton are healthy for the playoffs, the Suns will be an extremely tough out. Yet CP and KD’s injury issues and the Suns’ uncertain depth in conjunction with their lack of time together casts doubt on their ability to win four playoff series. Could they beat any single team in the NBA in a seven-game series though? Absolutely.

Memphis Grizzlies – There’s no better example for how quickly vibes and expectations can shift than the 2023 Grizzlies, who went from NBA darlings to a shitshow very quickly. Ja Morant’s off-court issues have him away from the team indefinitely, Dillon Brooks’ attitude has backfired in suspensions, and key reserve Brandon Clarke is out for the season with an Achilles tear. If Morant and starting center Steven Adams (who has also missed a ton of time) return with enough time to get the Grizzlies back on track before the playoffs, they could be a very tough opponent. But it just doesn’t feel like the Grizzlies’ year, even with huge breakout campaigns from Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. The Grizz have enough of a standings cushion that they should hold on to a top 3 seed, but they are absolutely a candidate to lose in the first round if they can’t get their act together.

LA Clippers – I don’t need to write too much about the Clippers, who are 19^th in the NBA in Net Rating (-0.1) with an offense that has climbed to 20^th and a defense that has fallen to 12^th. It’s hard to discount the Clippers given that Kawhi Leonard is playing at a superstar level, and considering just how many NBA-caliber players they have. But fit has been an issue, as has coaching, and the Clippers will likely be at homecourt disadvantage throughout the playoffs. If the matchups break right and Kawhi and Paul George stay healthy it’s easy to see this team making a run. It’s also just as easy to see them lose 4-2 in the first round against teams that are more athletic and turn the ball over less.

Golden State Warriors – The defending champions are a league average team, with the 14^th ranked offense and 14^th ranked defense. Optimism comes from their unmatched chemistry, playoff experience, and the sheer magic of Steph Curry. Worry would come in some questionable-ish depth, the Andrew Wiggins situation, and the Warriors not defending like the Warriors this season. It’s hard to rule out any team with Steph Curry playing like he has, and more than any other team in the NBA, it’s reasonable to think the Warriors have a “postseason switch”. I think it’s fair to see no other team would be eager to face the Warriors except maybe the revenge-seeking Grizzlies, and for good reason. But just like the Clippers, it’s also easy to see the Warriors falling early behind turnovers and sloppy defense.

LA Lakers – After starting the season 0-5, and then 2-10, the Lakers have been 31-25 the rest of the way, and have made massive roster adjustments since the start of the season. A lot of their depth is still not great, but it’s a lot better, and fits more cleanly around LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Whether those two guys are healthy for the playoffs, especially LeBron, is an open question, but if they are, the Lakers could have the two best players in a series against just about any team in the NBA. I think the “nobody wants to play the Lakers” is overblown compared to say the Warriors, but other teams will stop being scared of LeBron only when he’s retired. It’s hard to call them a contender when they’ve had such little time together and with question marks on the health of their best players, but it’s also hard to knock them meaningfully below the teams above them in the standings.

Dallas Mavericks – Trading for Kyrie Irving has not helped the Mavs so far, as they’re 5-6 with him in the lineup and have lost the two games he’s been on the team and hasn’t suited up. The Mavs’ defense was not great before acquiring Irving, and it’s been a disaster with him (they’re down to 23^rd on the season). The return of Maxi Kleber should help, but the Mavs’ depth is not great, and their two best players are both vulnerable on defense. Luka is so brilliant and the Mavs have enough offensive firepower around him that they’re going to be scary in a given playoff series, but it’s nigh impossible to see this team winning multiple playoff series much less four. Their floor might be higher due to Luke, but the ceiling does not seem to be there.

Minnesota Timberwolves – Unlike most of the teams on this list, the Wolves are pretty good defensively – 11^th and rising – but bad on offense (23^rd). The offense should improve when Karl-Anthony Towns returns, but like so many of the other Western Conference teams, the Wolves will have very little time to gel. Towns didn’t get in that many reps with Rudy Gobert and has now missed most of the season. He will now need to adjust to a new starting point guard in Mike Conley. I thought the Wolves would be a regular season monster and playoff-weak, and still think that, if the Wolves even make the postseason. An Anthony Edwards-Towns-Gobert trio is theoretically pretty good, and they have some nice role players around them, but I can’t see much of a run happening this season.

Do They Want the Play-In?

Oklahoma City Thunder – The Thunder have a record of 33-35, which puts them in a four-way tie with the Jazz, Lakers, and Pelicans for 11^th in the Western Conference, but boast a 1.4 Net Rating, 10^th in the NBA and 5^th in the West. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is also the best player on any of these teams below the Lakers outside of Damian Lillard, and has been magnificent this year. If the Thunder really want the play-in, they could probably get it. However, they’ve already started resting Shai. With Shai, Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams, and the recovering Chet Holmgren, the Thunder already have an excellent core in place. Adding another lottery pick, with a potential shot at Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson, might be too much for Sam Presti to pass up.

Utah Jazz – The Jazz are 33-35 and hanging onto the last play-in spot by a thread. The question is whether or not the Jazz want to make the play-in. Having traded Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert last summer, the Jazz furthered their tank by moving on from other vets at the deadline. While they have a million future picks from all those deals, it would make sense for them to want to get into the lottery this year as well to give themselves a chance at a top pick and lock themselves to a better pick. If they want to try to win, they can probably hang in there, but I suspect at some point they will trail away to let another team claim the last play-in.

Scrounging for the Play-In

New Orleans Pelicans – The Pelicans are 33-35 as well, tied with the Lakers, Jazz, and Thunder for 9th/10th in the Western Conference, but boast a 0.7 Net Rating (13^th in the NBA). Unfortunately, that’s not really a sign of better things to come this year, but more an indicator of how good they were to start the season when Zion Williamson was healthy. Sadly, the big man has once again been out most of the season, and a return does not appear to be close in the offing. Jonas Valanciunas and CJ McCollum are on the wrong side of 30 and having their worst campaigns since very early in their careers, which does not bode well. Brandon Ingram is always injured. Herb Jones has stagnated after a great rookie season. Barring a Zion return soon, the Pelicans seem the most likely of these teams to end in the lottery.

Portland Trailblazers – The Blazers are sitting in 13^th place in the Western Conference with a -1.3 Net Rating (24^th in the NBA) and 31-36 record – all in maybe the best season of Damian Lillard’s legendary career. The Blazers’ defense is putrid, with only the tanking Pistons, Rockets, and Spurs being below them. Jerami Grant is a great sidekick, and Anfernee Simons can really score, but the rest of the roster hovers around fine at best. Lillard and Simons is unplayable defensively, and one has to think Simons plus other stuff will be on the move this summer to try to pair Dame with another true star as we head into the sunset of his career. Still, the season isn’t over, and with Dame playing at this level, a play-in run is not impossible.

Tank City

San Antonio Spurs – This season saw the last departures of the playoff Spurs era of just a couple short years ago, and the full embrace of the tank. Devin Vassell is awesome, Keldon Johnson is talented offensively, and Tre Jones could be a really nice point guard if he was able to shoot. Among their rookies, Jeremy Sochan has been the standout, what with his versatility on both sides of the floor – but don’t sleep on Malaki Branham as a scorer. If the Spurs get the right guy in the draft, I think they could be back in the play-in mix as soon as next year. They have a nice pool of young guys, they just need that core centerpiece.

Houston Rockets – The Rockets will finish near the bottom of the standings for three years in a row, joining the Process Sixers as an all-time tanking era. Unfortunately for them, this season didn’t see much progress – Jalen Green didn’t improve much on his rookie campaign, and Jabari Smith Jr. was awful in his own rookie year. Alperen Sengun looks like a player, and Kenyon Martin Jr. and Tari Eason have the makings of winning role players, but a true centerpiece does not seem to be present yet. Worse, the culture and environment has reportedly been very bad. Depending on how the lottery falls, they might be bad again next year, though a near-certain coaching change in the summer could help.

A Look Around the Western Conference With 15 Games To Go
Robert Flom