The dust has settled on the Clippers’ trade deadline transactions, and with a couple games with some of the new pieces on the roster in the books, we can start looking ahead to what Ty Lue and the Clippers will do with their rotations in the second half of the season. First, here’s a look at the depth chart, sorted purely positionally.

Point Guard: James Harden, Ben Simmons, Kris Dunn, Patty Mills

Shooting Guard: Norm Powell, Amir Coffey, Jordan Miller, Cam Christie, Trentyn Flowers

Small Forward: Derrick Jones Jr., Bogdan Bogdanovic, MarJon Beauchamp

Power Forward: Kawhi Leonard, Nic Batum, Kobe Brown

Center: Ivica Zubac, Drew Eubanks, Kai Jones

However, we know this is not quite accurate to the reality of the situation. Ben Simmons is the Clippers’ backup point guard – but in his first game as a Clipper, he played a ton alongside James Harden and served as either a power forward or center. Kris Dunn is nominally a point guard but has played most of the season alongside other ball-handlers more as a shooting guard or small forward. Nic Batum is Kawhi Leonard’s backup at power forward, but he too has spent much of the season as a small ball center.

Thus, looking at a revised depth chart grouping more based on spots in the rotation rather than position, I think you land something more like this.

Starters: Harden-Norm-DJJ-Kawhi-Zu

Bench: Simmons-Dunn-Coffey-Bogdan-Batum

Situational Usage: Kobe Brown, Drew Eubanks

Depth: Mills-Miller-Christie-Flowers-Beachamp-Jones

The first thing you might notice here is that there are 10 players set up for rotation minutes. I think that will be the case, at least for the first handful of games after the All-Star Break when Ty will be tinkering. Those top 10 all just bring something to the table that I think will be hard to leave out during the grind of the regular season. Ty has played a nine-man rotation much of the year, but a lot of NBA coaches play with 10-man rotations in the regular season, so this is a pretty reasonable outlook. This will all change if the Clippers make the postseason, as further rotation cuts will happen, but there’s a long distance between now and the postseason in mid-April.

In terms of how minutes are allocated, I think that the Clippers’ top minutes getters so far this season (Harden, Norm, and Zu) will lose a few minutes. The presence of Ben Simmons as a true playmaker for the second unit should allow for longer rest for Harden, and his size and rebounding should allow for more feasible “small-ball” units that give Zu longer breathers. If Bogdan is right, he’s a better Norm sub than was previously available on the roster and can tick Norm’s minutes down a bit too. Additionally, I think Coffey will lose some minutes to Bogdan, Dunn will lose minutes to Ben, and Kawhi will continue to grow his minutes as he gets his legs under him.

Designing the actual rotation is tricky. Ben Simmons is a non-shooter, as is Ivica Zubac, while Kris Dunn takes threes, but teams are happy to let him shoot, which can mess up spacing in a similar way (though teams do at least somewhat guard/close out on him, so it’s a bit different than Simmons). Playing all three of those guys together is probably a non-starter, and even two of them might be tough (though the Clippers played Simmons and Dunn plenty in the Jazz game before the ASB to great success). The Clippers also like to stagger one of Harden or Kawhi with the bench unit, making full bench squads unlikely. Maybe if Simmons and Bogi prove themselves effective the bench will have enough playmaking and firepower to not necessitate staggering, but I’d be surprised if the Clippers went away from the stagger entirely.

Keeping all of that in mind, here are some ways the Clippers can make this work. First, Ty Lue can bring in Kris Dunn and Bogdan Bogdanovic at around the 5-minute mark for Kawhi Leonard and Derrick Jones Jr. That keeps one of DJJ/Dunn in the game to help with point of attack defense while making up for Kawhi’s absence with a good shooting/scoring threat. A couple of minutes later, the Clippers bring in Nic Batum and Amir Coffey for Norm Powell and Ivica Zubac. The Clippers are now a small-ball unit with Batum at center with a still good amount of shooting and playmaking. The danger with this unit is being too small and maybe not quite good enough on defense, but hopefully the offense can outweigh those downsides.

At the start of the second quarter, Ty could bring in Ben Simmons for Harden and Kawhi for Dunn, going with a Ben-Amir-Bogi-Kawhi-Nico unit. This grouping has tremendous size for a non-center unit, but I do worry about it almost being “too big” and not having enough point of attack defense or speed on the perimeter. A solution could be leaving Dunn in and taking Bogi out instead. At that point, the Clippers start cycling back into the first unit, with Norm returning at some point for Bogi/Dunn/Amir, followed by DJJ for one of the other of those guys and Zu for Nico. Lastly, Harden returns for Ben. Maybe at around that time you bring back in one of the bench guys for Kawhi so he doesn’t play the whole second quarter. You’d repeat much the same process in the second half, except tightening things up as needed to play key guys more.

I think most of the units describe above are fairly well-balanced, with enough size, shooting, playmaking, and defense to be sustainable on both ends. They give Harden, Norm, and Zu more rest than they have been accustomed to seeing over the first half of the year while allowing new guys to get their chances. Hopefully with all of the subbing and different units for short stints, Ty Lue can figure out some dynamite combinations. For example, a Harden-Dunn-Bogi-Kawhi-Nico lineup is something I think could work quite well if it ever gets a chance, as could Ben in place of Nico.

The are caveats to all this, however. First, of the Clippers’ remaining 28 games, 12 of them are situated across six pairs of back-to-backs. In those 12 games, therefore, it’s very unlikely we see the Clippers’ full complement of players – Kawhi Leonard and Ben Simmons are both not cleared for them, and I kind of doubt they will be this season. That immediately makes things a bit clearer rotation-wise for those games, though it will be interesting to see if they both sit the same games or if they sit opposite of each other. There is also the inevitability of injury, as 28 games would be an insane length of time in the NBA for there to be no injuries. Hopefully there’s nothing serious, but a couple Clippers will get dinged up down the stretch, and rotations will shift accordingly.

To wrap this up, I’m very, very curious to see what Ty Lue does with his rotations the last 28 games of this season. Ben Simmons in particular can unlock some interesting lineup combinations, even if I remain skeptical on his individual impact. Bogdan Bogdanovic’s offensive capabilities might be able to get the Clippers to places where they haven’t been to reach so far this season in terms of firepower – but will it cost them too much on defense and on the glass? If Bogdan plays very well, does Amir Coffey eventually lose his rotation spot? If Simmons stands out, could we see Kris Dunn lose his? If neither of the new guys looks good, how does Ty Lue respond? I think the Clippers will be a fun group to watch down the stretch of this season, both because they are going to be competing for a postseason spot and because I think they will be experimenting a lot with different lineups. Here’s hoping that the second half of the year is an entertaining one!

Mapping out the Clippers’ Rotations After the All Star Break
Robert Flom

Los Angeles currently houses the two oldest rosters in the NBA, which is not a coincidence being that both teams are in win-now, championship-contending modes. Veteran players flock towards established teams who are on the cusp of winning and take pay cuts in hopes to complement superstar players — their experience and locker room presence being the most important supplements. What’s often overlooked, though, is the important roles of the younger players on the roster and the contributions that they make throughout the season. While the Clippers, average age of 28.8, fit the billing of the win-now described teams, they’ve benefitted from youthful jolts of energy. The challenge, though, has been finding the balance between relying on vets and relying on fresh legs. The Clippers are doing their best to accomplish both in managing their rotation minutes.

It’s a common saying that veteran-led teams are often the ones that end up hoisting the Larry O’Brien trophy in the air at the season’s end — which is true when you look at NBA history. Go down the recent list of champions; the Lakers, Raptors, Warriors, Cavs, Spurs, and Heat — all experienced and battle-tested NBA rosters. In the same breath, those championship rosters featured young players who made contributions to winning over parts of the season. Last year, the Lakers got contributions off the bench throughout the season from then 24 and 25-year-old Kyle Kuzma and Alex Caruso. In 2019, the Raptors did it by committee throughout the regular season and had some game-changing playoff performances from reserve guys like Fred Van Vleet and Norman Powell. The Warriors even had guys like Jordan Bell, Pat McCaw, and Kevon Looney soak up some meaningful minutes and provide spot starts in playoff games, although their value was less impactful on those historically great Warriors teams.

Many of those aforementioned teams allowed for their depth to mature throughout the regular season, building game experience through high-volume reps and situational uses. But when it was time for the playoffs, their developed roles were reduced, although still important, as the vets’ minutes ramped up. The Clippers seem to be following a similar blueprint with their rotation choices thus far.

The plan this season for the Clippers has been clear: in this second go-around, surround Kawhi Leonard and Paul George with enough proven (veteran) NBA talent to keep their championship aspirations real and enhance their functionality in the playoffs. With that, Serge Ibaka and Nic Batum inked inexpensive deals in hopes to become reliable pieces to a team that ultimately collapsed under pressure, Marcus Morris Sr. re-upped to give the Clippers’ star players more help on both ends of the court, and Patrick Beverley and Lou Williams made it through the offseason without being dealt — although Lou was dealt at the trade deadline for a veteran playoff performer. Those seven named players (counting Lou) average out at slightly above 31 years of age and are leading the Clippers in minutes per game. And with the minutes distribution being the way it has, the returns have been up and down. Occasionally, they’ve strung together games of dominance in which they show their potential, but the rigors of the regular-season grind on old veteran bodies, and bored veteran minds, have led to some serious inconsistencies. 

However, there’s been a recent shift. What’s changed the momentum and even the outcome of multiple games this season has been the performances of the guys who rank near the bottom of the team in minutes per game — the young guys. In-part due to injuries, Ivica Zubac, Luke Kennard, and Terance Mann have seen upticks in their minutes as of late – to positive results.

In the most underwhelming of games, the product off of the bench has been a significant boost; just ask the Miami Heat — who fell twice in defeat to a Kawhi, PG, and Pat Bev-less group of Clippers. If not the Heat, maybe the Hawks could tell you about how a Luke Kennard and Terance Mann led Clippers team, with a splash of Coffey, overcame a 22-point second-half deficit to shock the Hawks. It’s also important to note that Ivica Zubac has been arguably the Clippers’ most consistently reliable player this season. The common trend here is energy, which veteran players often save. Perhaps no player outside of Pat really offers the same energy and electricity as the young Clippers – Terance’s and Amir’s activity and pop, and Zu’s fight and physicality on the glass. 

Whether or not the recent performances we’ve seen are going to be as translatable to the playoffs, it’s been nice to see the organization follow through on their claim to focus on player development. As a result, there have been some promising returns. The Clippers must walk a very fine line, however. The recent addition of veteran point guard Rajon Rondo signals to the Clippers getting an early jump on their playoffs rotations. The main guys will have to be better than they have been this season. And given their resumes, you can expect, at minimum, a drastically different effort come playoff time. As stated previously, the challenge will be finding the right balance.

Clippers Managing Rotation Minutes: Youth vs. Vets
Cole Huff