The Clippers’ run of barren drafts even by their standards starts in 2024, with their lone pick being at 46, smack in the middle of the second round. The Clippers have a bunch of free agents, which means there will probably be a roster spot available (even if it’s just a two-way) for whoever they select at 46. And, with no draft picks having been rotation players for the Clippers since Terance Mann back in 2019, the Clippers need to make every pick they have count, especially as they possess so few of them in the next couple years.

We are starting as always with point guard prospects, and point guard is apparently a position the Clippers might look at, per the Athletic’s Law Murray. Jason Preston is long gone. James Harden, Russell Westbrook, and Xavier Moon are free agents. Thus, the only true point guard currently under contract is Bones Hyland, and there are some indications the Clippers want to move on from him. Even with Harden probably coming back, if Russ and Bones don’t return, point guard depth will be needed, which means the Clippers taking a point guard is certainly possible.

The following explanation is a copy paste explanation of the stats and methodology from previous years. The numbers I compile for this are for college players only (no international, OTE, or G-League players included), and are per game, not per possession. In the NBA, per possession is a more useful stat, but when looking at college players, I feel like playing time is a bigger component – if you can’t play in college, you probably won’t play in the NBA. I also stopped at around number 60 on ESPN’s prospect list, as guys below that are unlikely to get picked even at 46. Finally, the numbers are roughly averaged between the last two college seasons the players played, which can hurt some guys but can balance out outlier seasons.

I have updated my database and models, and things have changed somewhat. The three most important stats for point guard prospects (in comparing college stats to advanced all-in-one numbers at the NBA level including WS/48, VORP, and BPM to determine correlation) are steals, age, and true shooting, with rebounds and three pointers made also being impactful. It’s better for prospects to be younger (makes sense) and for all their counting stats to be higher (also checks out). Points, turnovers, and blocks don’t have a strong correlation to NBA success for point guard prospects in my models, but obviously matter when judging players. Here’s a look at some prospects!

Best Prospects in Clippers’ Range

Trey Alexander – Alexander is a three-year junior from Creighton (shout out Cole Huff) who doesn’t stand out hugely in any one category, but brings solid efficiency, rebounding, steal, and three-point shooting numbers. Alexander is also fairly young for his class, having just turned 21, and is on the taller side for a point guard at 6’4. Alexander’s three-point shooting dipped his junior season, but he took a high volume of threes and has had excellent free-throw shooting, so I’m relatively confident the shot will translate. He’s not an amazing playmaker by any stretch, but he’s a solid enough guard who I think would be a terrific selection at 46.

KJ Simpson – Simpson is a three-year junior out of Colorado who steadily improved across his three years in college, finishing with a ferocious 19.7 point, 5.8 rebound, 4.9 assist line this past season to earn First Team All Pac 12. An excellent rebounder for his size (6’2, 175), Simpson is a score-first guard who nonetheless takes relatively good care of the ball. The question for him is whether his shooting 43.4% from three his junior season was real after shooting under 28% his first two years. His free throw shooting being excellent throughout bodes well for his touch, making me a believer in the outside shot. He’s a dynamic scorer who could be a very nice backup, though he is small on defense.

Prospects to Trade Up For

Tyler Kolek – Kolek was a four-year senior at Marquette, and his age (he’s one of the oldest in the draft) and size are the only real knocks on him. He posted solid rebound and steal numbers, made a good number of threes on solid volume, and was extremely efficient. A lot of draft people think he’s one of the safer prospects in the entire draft and a near lock to be a steady backup point, albeit without much upside. I highly doubt the Clippers move up (they don’t really even have the assets to do so), but if Kolek slips from the late 1^st to the early 2^nd he’d be a fine target.

Prospects to Avoid

Jamal Shead – Shead is someone I know a lot of draft twitter likes. He won Big 12 Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year in his senior season at Houston, and is an absolutely tenacious player. The reason he doesn’t measure well statistically is simple – he’s old and posted really poor efficiency stats. His steal numbers are fantastic, and despite being small he can probably hang defensively in the NBA. But at 6’1, 175, Shead might have a really hard time scoring in the NBA, and you need to be a scoring threat as a ballhandler in today’s NBA. He’s not a bad prospect, but I think there will be better guys here.

Bronny James – The Clippers almost certainly would not take Bronny in the draft. And he had a very weird freshman season at USC that resulted in his stats being so poor. But it was still a disappointing campaign for Bronny, and I think he’s a couple years away from being an NBA guy if he ever gets there. Don’t see this one happening.

International Prospects of Note

Juan Nunez – Nunez is a 20 year old who plays for Ratiopharm Ulm in the German Basketball Bundesliga (BBL), the top league in Germany. In 54 games this past season across Bundesliga and Eurocup, the second-highest international competition in Europe, Nunez averaged 9.9 points, 4.9 assists, 3.4 rebounds, and 1.7 steals in 23 minutes per game while shooting 47% from the field, 31.9% from three (2.6 attempts), and 61% from the line (2.7 attempts). Nunez is a highly skilled offensive player and an adept passer, but the question for him will be if he’s athletic enough to get to the rim or play defense at the NBA level. He’s intriguing.

There are some interesting point guard prospects in the Clippers’ range in this draft. Are there any that you have your eye on more than others?

2024 NBA Draft by the Numbers: Point Guard Prospects
Robert Flom

Well folks, the 2020 NBA Draft is just a week away! The draft is happening five months later than usual this year, but will still feature much excitement, especially with many trades predicted to occur around draft time. While the LA Clippers only have the 57^th pick in the draft and might well remain there, good NBA players (even great ones) have been selected that late in the draft before. Additionally, there is a chance that Steve Ballmer and the Clippers front office buys a higher pick to nab a guy that they like – Ballmer has the money for it, and has done so in the past. The Clippers’ biggest roster need is probably at point guard, so with that said, let’s dive into the 2020 NBA Draft point guard prospects by the numbers!

I’ve done this article on a yearly basis for a number of years now, but it has been a while, so here’s a brief refresher on the methodology. I have taken the college stats of point guards from the 2009 to 2015 NBA drafts and then done regression analysis against their advanced stats in the NBA. This gives a (rough) guide into which college stats translate well to NBA success, and which have less of an impact. The college numbers are averaged across the prospects’ last two years (many college players don’t play much in their first year or two, and it’s tough to judge seniors by those years considering they’ve developed a lot since). Freshmen are considered purely by their college stats, with no high school or international play considered. With that said, let’s dive into the 2020 NBA Draft point guard prospects!

As discussed before, despite being perhaps the most common “point guard” stats, neither points nor assists have a strong correlation to NBA success. This is probably because some college offenses reward their lead ballhandlers with gaudy assist numbers that don’t reflect their true playmaking abilities – while others spread the ball around and dampen assist numbers. The same goes for points, as in college many players who couldn’t score easily in the NBA are able to get up a lot of shots and put up big point numbers despite a lack of efficiency or true creation.

Instead, the most important college stats for predicting NBA success are steals, rebounds, three-point makes, true shooting, and age. The first four are all positive coefficients (it’s good for their numbers to be higher) while age is negative (it’s better to be younger), which makes sense. Steals and rebounds demonstrate not defensive potency, necessarily, but functional athleticism and basketball instincts, which are especially crucial for point guards.

Meanwhile, three-point shooting has become increasingly important for lead ballhandlers, making a competent outside shot at volume a big advantage. And, finally, point guards are usually the smallest players on the court – if they can score efficiently in the NCAA, it bodes well for their prospects to do so in the NBA, whereas if they aren’t efficient in college, they’re going to struggle even more at the top level. All that aside, here are the point guard prospects in the 2020 NBA Draft who I think would be strong picks at the Clippers range, those they should consider trading up for, and those who they should avoid.

Best Prospects in Clippers Range

Payton Pritchard – A senior from Oregon, Pritchard is one of the older point guard prospects in the NBA Draft. However, he makes up for his age with excellent outside shooting, a high steal rate, and solid rebounding. Pritchard hit 41.5% of his threes his senior season on 6.8 attempts per game, a phenomenal number, and while his junior shooting was considerably worse, his sophomore season was nearly as strong. Combine that with his 80% career FT shooting and he seems likely to be a plus shooter at the next level. He’s small, and he probably doesn’t have a ton of upside, but he’s a good bet to run an offense and score the ball at a solid clip.

Jahmi’us Ramsey – Ramsey is nearly as different from Pritchard as can be. A freshman from Texas Tech, Ramsey is several years younger than Pritchard (he’s in fact the youngest college point guard in the draft), and a couple inches taller. While his numbers are worse than Pritchard’s across the board, that’s to be expected considering the age difference. He too was a fantastic outside shooter (42.6% on 5.7 attempts), and his height means it’s much harder for defenders to bother his looks. Now, his free throw shooting (64.1%) is a worrying factor, but his size, age, and shooting potential means he’d be a steal if he fell to the Clippers. He’s projected to go in the mid second round, but at that point, anything can happen.

Prospects to Trade Up For

Malachi Flynn – Flynn is a prospect whose stock has shot up in recent weeks, with projections now in the late first round. Flynn is another older guy (he transferred from Washington State to San Diego State and redshirted a year), and has very similar averaged stats to Pritchard. Flynn was one of the best pick and roll operators in the country, especially as a scorer, and is a deadly shooter from all over the court. He’s undersized as well, but he’s someone who could step in and run an NBA pick-and-roll heavy offense right away. That ability will probably continue to shoot Flynn up draft boards, and while I do like him quite a bit, the Clippers would presumably have to give up a decent amount to be in a spot to draft him.

Devon Dotson – Dotson is an absolute speedster who can fly with the ball in his hands on offense, and uses that same quickness to nab steals on the other end. His plus speed and instincts should translate well to the NBA, and he’s quite adept at finishing around the basket and getting to the foul line. His three point shooting took a step back his sophomore season, but his excellent free throw shooting demonstrates that he has quite a bit of touch, and I think he’s likely to be an at least average outside shooter in the NBA. At 6’2 with a small wingspan and not much leaping ability, there are real limits to what Dotson can do on both sides of the court, but statistically his youth, steal rate, and scoring efficiency makes him a very nice prospect. If he’s available somewhere in the early to mid 40s range, the Clippers should absolutely make a move for him.

Prospects to Avoid

Ashton Hagans – There are some positives with Hagans, a sophomore from Kentucky. He has a high steal rate, and his 79.1% free throw shooting indicates a player who can probably develop some long-range shooting over time. The issue, however, is that he was a virtual non-shooter from deep (26.5% on 1.7 attempts over two seasons) in college, and despite being only a sophomore, is already well past 21 years old. His efficiency as a whole plummeted his sophomore season as his usage went up, a bad sign considering he still wasn’t a high-volume scorer. Realistically, there’s some promise defensively and as a playmaker, but the rest of his offense has a long way to go.

International Prospects of Note

Yam Madar – Madar will not be 20 at the time of the draft, yet is in his 3^rd season of playing professionally in a decent league (Israeli league). Madar is an excellent passer and playmaker, and won the 2020 Most Improved Player award after going from a low-minute reserve to starter. He doesn’t have much of an outside shot to speak of (though note that the Israeli league plays with a longer arc than the NCAA), but his craftiness and quickness are legit. He’s also signed for multiple more years with Hapoel, meaning he could be a great stash candidate for the Clippers.

Honestly, this is a very strong point guard class. There are numerous point guards who I think would be excellent picks for the Clippers who should be available in the mid-late 2^nd rounds, and could either fall all the way to 57 or be available for a simple cash purchase. If the Clippers can get any of the guys discussed above, I think they will have found their backup point guard of the future. Well, what do you think of the 2020 NBA Draft point guard prospects? Anyone you have your eye on? Anyone you’d like to steer clear from? Let us know in the comments below!

2020 NBA Draft: Point Guard Prospects By the Numbers
Robert Flom