After five years, the Paul George-Kawhi Leonard era is over for the Clippers. The Clippers put out a statement announcing his departure. George is going to go to the Philadelphia Sixers, likely on a 4-year max deal.

In the end, the negotiations never really seemed to get off the ground. By all accounts, Paul George held firm on his demand for a four year deal at the max (or very close to it), and the Clippers held firm on only offering 3 years at below the max. As mentioned in the press statement above, the gap was large, could not be closed, and ultimately resulted in the dissolution of the PG-Clippers partnership.

We will obviously have a lot more about Paul George in the coming days as we come to grips with the end of this era of the Clippers. For right now, the Clippers will have access to the non-taxpayer midlevel exception starting at $12.9M and the biannual exception starting at $4.7M, as PG walking gets them under the first tax apron.

Lucas has already detailed what the Clippers can do going forward in this article, but we know some changes are coming. Harden is back, Russell Westbrook is almost certainly gone, and Kevin Porter Jr. (more on him in a separate article) is in. The Clippers will need to find a starting power forward and a backup center, among other things, though it seems like a full-fledged roster shakeup is on the way.

I do want to note here that while you can feel salty about Paul George not bending to meet the Clippers, he did what was best for him, and you can’t blame him for that. He is almost certainly getting a 4 year, $212M deal from Philadelphia, well beyond the Clippers’ 3 year, $150M offer. Additionally, Philly is probably a cleaner basketball fit, with two high-usage player in Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid who can soak up possessions and take ballhandling and defensive responsibilities from him respectively.

I will have much, much more to say about the 213 era here on the site and on the podcast in the coming weeks. For now, stay tuned, as the Clippers still have many, many more moves to make, likely starting with a Russ trade.

Paul George Is Gone. The 213 Era is Over
Robert Flom

Paul George declined his player option a few hours ago, thus becoming an unrestricted free agent in advance of the opening of free agency tomorrow. So far, he has scheduled meetings with the Clippers, the Orlando Magic, and the Philadelphia Sixers tomorrow night and early Monday, and it seems a decision won’t be too long after that.

On this episode of The Lob The Jam The Podcast, Lucas, Shap, and I talked about Paul George’s decision and what it means for the Clippers. We explored how the Clippers could proceed if he does decide to leave, including the obtainment of the full non-taxpayer mid-level exception and the ability to more easily extend Terrance Mann and Ivica Zubac. A few brief options were discussed regarding use of the MLE, none of them being very satisfying.

We also went over what happens for the Clippers if Paul George does come back, including options to try to get younger, find ways to save costs, and introduce more optionality to the team. While this is still the best overall option for the near term, the second apron hell it would put the Clippers into might be crippling in the long term.

There was also some talk about Paul George’s other options, and whether Philadelphia, Orlando, or another team might make sense. We also talked about the pure negotiation element of all this – how things have been leaked, why the stare-off, and what a reasonable compromise might be.

Finally, we chatted about the other Clippers’ news items today, including Russell Westbrook opting into his deal and the Clippers declining options/qualifying offers for Brandon Boston, Moussa Diabate, and Kai Jones, and what all that means for the team going forward.

As always, leave a 5 star review for whatever platform you listen to us on, and comment below!

TLTJTP: Paul George Declines Player Option, Enters Free Agency
Robert Flom

Free agency is just two weeks away, which means chatter is starting to pick up. On Friday, ESPN news breaker Brian Windhorst went on a show and said that the Clippers and Paul George are still far apart in negotiations. That part wasn’t new, but Windhorst did also say that if PG is through with the Clippers, he could pick up his player option and then be traded away. Following that path would allow the Clippers to get something back for PG and also enable him to have a wider market than just teams with cap space.

For trades, I only really considered places George might accept trades to/consider re-signing at. Thus, no Jazz trades. These are just rough outlines of deals that should work in the salary cap and make at least some sense for each team. I’m not strongly advocating for any of them and the deals are, again, just outlines, but I think there are some intriguing options here. Also, try not to be shocked at how little is coming back to the Clippers here – in these situations, the Clippers would have very little leverage, as PG would effectively be forcing his way out.

Trade 1: Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, and Picks

Kings Reasoning: The Kings slipped this year after a fantastic 2023, and need a true 3^rd banana on the wing to complement De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. PG would be willing to defer to those two as the primary playmakers while providing exceptional shooting, serving as an upgrade on defense compared to Huerter and Barnes, and adding additional creation and “bail-out buckets”. He’s a lot older than the Kings’ two stars, but Fox and Sabonis are in their primes and the Kings should be trying to make win-now moves.

Clippers Reasoning: The Clippers get younger and cheaper while filling two holes in their rotation. Barnes and Huerter are both signed for two more years, with Barnes’ deal being an overpay but not a crippling one, and Huerter on a fairly team-friendly deal. Barnes is not a starting-level player anymore, but he still adds size, three-point shooting, and veteran competence at the power forward spot. Huerter had a slight down season last year, but he’s an excellent three-point shooter who can do some tertiary creation and on-ball stuff. A Harden-Huerter-Kawhi-Barnes-Zu starting five would be pretty good, with Mann swapping in for Huerter or Barnes as needed for more defense/athleticism. The picks would be key – I think a good first, a well protected first/swap, and a couple of seconds is fair.

Trade 2: Dejounte Murray and Clint Capela

Hawks Reasoning: The Hawks have discovered that the Murray-Trae Young backcourt does not fit over the past two years, and this trade would effectively pull the plug on that. George is a much more seamless fit next to Trae Young due to his ability to play off-ball and take a high volume of catch-and-shoot threes. George is a lot older than Trae, and way older than whoever the Hawks select with the first pick, but Trae is in his prime and the Hawks seemingly want to win. Capela is well past his prime, and moving him would enable the Hawks to give Sarr or Clingan a big role if they’re select with that first pick.

Clippers Reasoning: I have questions about Dejounte’s fit with James Harden (maybe the Clippers let him walk in this case…) and his defense has slipped, but he’s a good player, he’s in his prime, and he’s on a reasonable contract for the remainder of his 20s. This trade would not fill the Clippers’ hole at power forward, but adding Murray could make moving on from other pieces easier. Capela is nowhere close to the player he was, but he’s on an expiring deal and is still a capable rotation center to plug in behind Zubac or fill in as a starter as needed.

Trade 3: Cam Johnson and Dorian Finney Smith

Nets Reasoning: I don’t think it’s good reasoning, but Joe Tsai and the Nets view Mikal Bridges as a star and want to put another star around him. Would that star make more sense if they were a guard or big man and not another wing? Sure! But this does get the Nets a star and give them a really strong pairing at wing for the next few seasons.

Clippers Reasoning: If the Clippers are truly trying to win now with Kawhi Leonard even with PG walking, I think this is the best trade of the bunch (even if it’s not my favorite overall). Johnson is an exceptional three-point shooter with size and plus defense who would be a great fit next to James Harden and Kawhi. Ditto for Finney-Smith, who would be a true power forward to help Leonard on bigger defensive assignments while still adding three-point shooting. A lineup of Harden-Johnson-Leonard-Finney-Smith-Zubac would be extremely well-balanced with shooting, defense, and creation, and would be mostly under control for the next three years. Johnson is 28 and DFS is 31, putting them right in Kawhi’s timeline.

Trade 4: Paul George and PJ Tucker for Julius Randle and Miles McBride

Knicks Reasoning: The Knicks’ run over the second half of the season showed this is now Jalen Brunson’s squad, and the Knicks found success in putting a certain type of team around him. Julius Randle doesn’t fit great there, but George does, largely due to his shooting and ability to play off-ball while still being able to add more creation than guys like Josh Hart or OG Anunoby. This move would re-center the team firmly around Brunson and make them more playoff ready (despite PG’s struggles in the postseason, he is infinitely better there than Randle).

Clippers Reasoning: Randle might be a playoff disaster, but he is a regular season floor raiser who could help keep the Clippers afloat when Kawhi inevitably misses time. He is also a bruising, old-school power forward who would add physicality and athleticism to the Clippers and help Kawhi shift back towards the perimeter. McBride had a breakout third season for the Knicks, with his combination of tenacious perimeter defense and three-point shooting being a huge boon for a Clippers team that lacked both of those items at time last year.

Trade 5: Bennedict Mathurin, Aaron Nesmith, and Isaiah Jackson

Pacers Reasoning: Adding Paul George to Haliburton, Siakam, and Myles Turner would make the Pacers a true contender, even though that core is way too expensive for Indiana and would probably have to be broken up after two years. In that window, however, they’d be one of the best teams in the NBA, with George adding even more spacing and shot creation to the best offense in the NBA while also bolstering their defense. Really, the Pacers’ willingness to pay up is the only question here.

Clippers Reasoning: I’m fairly low on Mathurin, but he’s still young, talented, and a legitimate bucket-getter who possesses real star upside with his size and athleticism. Nesmith is a bit undersized as a four, but he defends above his size well and is a nice 3 and D wing in today’s NBA on a very cost-effective deal. Jackson would help the Clippers get younger in the frontcourt and provide a stable, viable backup center option behind Ivica Zubac. The Clippers would remain competitive while getting the chance to roll the dice on Mathurin.

Trade 6: Cason Wallace, Lu Dort, and Kenrich Williams

Thunder Reasoning: The Mavs’ series revealed the Thunder’s lack of true lights-out shooting and scoring creation beyond SGA more than anything about their lack of experience or size. Paul George would add both of those qualities, helping the Thunder’s young core significantly while fitting in positionally next to Shai, Jalen Williams, and Chet. He’s on a different timeline, yes, but Shai is an MVP-caliber player, and it would be silly of Presti to not mortgage some of the future to try to win now.

Clippers Reasoning: This is a fairly light return (maybe a pick or two could be added), but the Clippers are not getting any of the Thunder’s Big 3 in a deal. Cason is the real prize here, a Second Team All Rookie selection who was a positive contributor for a contender at just 20 years old with plenty of upside to fill. Dort is one of the more overrated players in the NBA in my opinion, but there’s no question he adds toughness, defense, and regular season outside shooting. Williams is more of a throw-in, but is a deep rotation guy of the caliber the Clippers just did not have last year. Again, the Clippers would get younger and add real upside while still putting out a highly competitive roster next season.

Six Trade Ideas for Paul George
Robert Flom

Our exit interview series on the 2024 Clippers continues with star Paul George, whose future with the Clippers is up in the air.

Basic Information

Height: 6’8

Weight: 220 pounds

Position: Shooting Guard/Small Forward

Age: 34

Years in NBA: 14

Regular Season Stats: 22.6 points, 3.5 assists, 5.2 rebounds, 1.5 steals, and 2.1 turnovers in 33.8 minutes per game across 74 games played (all starts) on 47.1/41.3/90.7 (7.9 3PT attempts and 3.9 FTA attempts) shooting splits (61.3 True Shooting)

Postseason Stats: 19.5 points, 4.8 assists, 6.8 rebounds, 1.2 steals, and 2.3 turnovers in 37.0 minutes per game across 6 games (all starts) on 41.1/36.7/84 (8.2 3PT attempts and 4.2 FT attempts) shooting splits (55.2 True Shooting)

Expectations

After a disastrous 2023 Clippers season, the core Clippers promised that 2024 would be different. They claimed the mindset would be to take the regular season seriously. And, for Paul George specifically, that he would be “back on his bully shit”.

Some Clippers fans might have hoped for a much-improved PG, but with a four-year sample size, most fans had fairly set expectations. Paul George was expected to score in the low-mid 20s, bring in a handful of rebounds and assists, play solid defense, and be a good second banana to Kawhi Leonard. For overall impact, All-Star but not quite All-NBA level was a reasonable expectation.

Reality

Statistically, taking his season as a whole, Paul George squarely met his expectations. His per-game scoring dipped from previous seasons, but not by a lot, and his efficiency went up due to playing with Harden. George’s assists fell for similar reasons, but so did his turnovers. Really, the main unaccounted-for stat that dropped for PG was rebounding, which has fallen now in four consecutive seasons (and is an issue with playing him at the three and Kawhi at the four). Advanced numbers paint a similar picture, with PG placing as an All-Star, not All-NBA caliber player – which is exactly the recognition he actually received. George also played in 74 games, by far his most as a Clipper.

Breaking PG’s season down more granularly reveals the inconsistencies he has displayed throughout his career. PG was awesome to start the year, with an insane October, before his November tailed off as the Clippers bought in Harden and struggled with their new rotations. George played better in December as the Clippers got going, and then surged in early-mid January when they were in the middle of their 26-5 stretch. George started slumping towards the end of January and then logged in awful February, one of his worst months as a Clipper, coinciding directly with the Clippers’ slip in overall play. He then recovered and was terrific down the stretch to help the Clippers hold onto 4^th in the West.

The playoffs were a different matter. George had his lowest-scoring playoffs in over a decade, averaging just 19.5 points per game, with his last postseason averages of less than 20.0 points coming when he was a rising star in 2013. He was decent but not great in Games 1 and 2, fantastic in Game 4, blah in Game 6, and absolutely invisible in Games 3 and 5. The only game where PG cracked 20 shots was Game 1, where he had exactly 20. He otherwise looked passive and apathetic for much of the series. The Clippers were never making a deep run without Kawhi Leonard, but George’s lack of aggression and overall play were just not the caliber the Clippers needed.

It all adds up to another underwhelming season for George, who is now 34 years old and well past his prime. He’s not going to get any better and will likely continue slipping every year moving forward. The defense is fading, and so is his ability to get to and finish at the rim. Still, the three-point shooting remains an incredible weapon, and Paul George, when his shot is cooking, remains one of the hardest players in the NBA to stop.

Future with Clippers

This is where things get interesting. Paul George, of course, has a $48.8M player option for next season that he is expected to decline. The Clippers and PG were expected to come to terms on an extension, but it never happened. There have been reports that Paul George wants a full max, likely four years, but at least three. The Clippers, clearly, are not willing to pay him that. And thus, we have an old-school Western standoff.

The Clippers, from a pure basketball team-building perspective, have no way to replace Paul George if he declines his player option and walks to another team in free agency. Without re-signing James Harden, that would put the Clippers at around $126M in salary for 2025 with quite a few roster spots to fill. If PG walks and Harden comes back at around $35M-$40M, the Clippers would likely finish above the luxury tax at $171M and quite possibly over the first apron at $178M – but below the second apron at $189M. That would open up the mini MLE (or at least part of it) for the Clippers, enable them to aggregate salaries in trades, and provide other benefits. None of those, however, would remotely approach the star-level impact PG still offers.

The Clippers also don’t want to take a step back with Kawhi in his age 33 season and with Harden (turning 35 in August) seemingly a near certainty to return. Those guys have limited years left to be star-level players. The Clippers, with all their picks out the door for the next five years, also can’t truly enter a rebuild. Thus, the Clippers, for a variety of reasons, seemingly have to bring back PG. George himself has stated many times he wants to stay with the Clippers and remain in Los Angeles, where his parents can sit courtside, and he can be near friends and family.

Will George and the Clippers be able to find a middle ground on a deal? My gut says yes. While Philly or other teams might offer a full max, George is comfortable in Los Angeles, has already made an incredible amount of money, and will still receive a lucrative deal from the team. Ultimately, I think he returns on a deal similar if not identical to the three year, $153M deal that the Clippers gave Kawhi Leonard. If not, well, we will write the post-mortem at that time.

2024 Clippers Exit Interview: Paul George
Robert Flom

Our exit interview series on the 2023 Clippers continues with a review of Podcast P himself, Paul George.

Basic Information

Height: 6’8

Weight: 220 pounds

Position: Shooting Guard/Small Forward

Age: 33

Years in NBA: 13

Key Regular Stats: 23.8 points, 5.1 assists, 6.1 rebounds, 1.5 steals, and 3.1 turnovers in 34.6 minutes per game across 56 games played (all starts) on 45.7/37.1/87.1 (5.3 FTA attempts) shooting splits (58.8 True Shooting)

Postseason Stats: Missed all five playoff games with a knee injury

Expectations

Expectations were high for Paul George coming into the 2023 Clippers season. After an injury riddled 2022 campaign where he played in just 31 games and had his lowest scoring efficiency (True Shooting of just 53.8) since his third season back in 2013 (excluding his extremely shortened 2015 season) and the second lowest of his career. Playing without Kawhi Leonard was not as rosy for PG, who was expecting to return to his place as the Robin to Kawhi’s Batman in the Clippers’ quest for a ring.

In terms of production, considering Paul George has been steady-ish for his Clippers’ tenure, the expectation was more of the same: 22-24 points, 5-6 rebounds, and 5-6 assists per game with strong defense. In short, the expectation was for Paul George to play at an All-Star, All-NBA Third Team level as the Clippers’ second-best player on hopefully one of the best teams in the NBA. The other main hope was for PG to play in more games compared to the 48, 54, and 31 in his first three Clippers’ seasons.

Reality

Well, it was a mixed bag. Paul George technically did play his most games in a Clippers uniform at 56 (though because the 2021 season was just 72 games, he played a higher percentage of games that year). Paul George did also, somewhat controversially, represent the Clippers at the 2023 All Star Game. His production was right in line with his Clippers’ averages, with slightly lower points, rebounds, and assists being negated a bit through reduced turnovers and efficiency back in line with his first two seasons. On paper, the season doesn’t sound so bad – though 56 games is still quite low.

In reality, it felt a whole lot worse. It’s partially because George’s knee injury kept him out of the playoffs, resulting in yet another early Clippers’ exit. But it’s also because the Clippers disappointed all season, going 44-38 compared to 42-40 the previous season despite getting 56 games of PG and 52 of Kawhi Leonard versus 31 and 0 the year before. The rotations were a mess, the team seemed dispirited at times, and there just seemed to be a lack of leadership. Kawhi and PG are quiet guys by nature, and while they work very hard and play hard, the lack of locker room leadership was noticeable.

Not only that, but Paul George’s influence seemingly factored into the roster being so bad, as he was by all accounts a primary driver of the John Wall signing. Wall, of course, was a disaster, and Paul George and Ty Lue’s desire for a “traditional point guard” to handle the ball meant the team couldn’t bring back valuable backup center Isaiah Hartenstein. George was then the main proponent of the Russell Westbrook signing. And, while Russ had some very good moments for the Clippers, I ultimately still wish the Clippers hadn’t signed him so they could have gotten a longer look at starting point guard Terance Mann and high-minutes player Bones Hyland.

While it’s fine that PG wants to play with friends and guys he trusts on the court, his lack of leadership and his abrogating the responsibilities of a franchise player (like not wanting to handle the ball as much because Jrue Holiday pressured him one game) were major parts of this season’s failures. Too often PG was invisible in games the Clippers needed him. He was still very, very good, a clear top 30 and probably top 25 player in the NBA. But he’s no longer top 10, or close, and that’s a bad sign for the Clippers.

And, while it’s not his fault at all, Paul George missed the playoffs entirely. The Clippers have had the 213 era for four seasons, and had Kawhi Leonard and Paul George healthy together for just one postseason – the first season with the collapse in the Bubble. At some point, the Clippers will need to figure out if their superstars can ever make it healthy through a regular season to get them to where they need to be to make a deep playoff run, much less stay healthy through the grueling postseason itself. And, speaking of which…

Injury Discussion Sidebar

I feel like I haven’t really given my thoughts on the Paul George end-of-season injury situation, so here goes. To me, all of this stuff is a self-own by the Clippers. It’s not Paul George’s fault that he wasn’t back for the playoffs. It wasn’t Paul George’s fault that he didn’t give any clear injury updates, just “I’m working as hard as I can to make it back for the playoffs”. It’s not even, really, Paul George’s fault that he released his “actually, my injury was a six-week recovery” update on his podcast a couple days after the Clippers’ season ended. This all is on the Clippers.

Now, one could argue that the Clippers don’t release true injury updates for three reasons. First, you have the gamesmanship element in forcing the Suns to prepare for a Paul George contingency and add some extra stress to the series. There’s no real evidence this does or does not work, but I can’t imagine the Suns really thought he was going to play anyway. Second, there’s the “by keeping the door open, you boost his teammate’s spirits and give the team and the fans hope”. I simply don’t buy this. I kind of doubt that his teammates didn’t know the full outlook on his injury – it would have been very hard to keep that a secret inside the locker room. And even if they didn’t know, would it really be hope that was inspired, or doubt and uncertainty? As for the fans, while some people talked themselves into a PG return, that only made them even more disappointed when he didn’t come back. Finally, there’s the thought that the Clippers’ players are secretive and don’t want their injury updates made public. That’s fair enough, though I don’t really understand it.

In the end, the only thing that the Clippers got out of not saying up front that Paul George’s injury was a six-week timeline and he would miss at the very least the entire first round of the playoffs is some extra media coverage, criticism of George (and Kawhi when he sat out before the meniscus diagnosis was released) from national pundits and fans, and some extra engagement for Podcast P. Maybe the Clippers don’t care about what the national media talking heads say. But they should care about what their fans think, and it’s very clear that their handling of injury news, especially with their stars, is harming fan opinion rather than helping it. That’s all.

Future with Clippers

Paul George is signed for the Clippers for next year at a fully guaranteed rate and has a $48.8M player option for the following 2024-2025 season. He’s said all the right things about wanting to be a Clipper for a long time, and his heart truly does seem to be in Los Angeles with a Clippers uniform. For their part, the Clippers have also publicly stated their desire to keep the 213 era going, which means of course some kind of extension or new contract for Paul George.

The rub, of course, is that PG is entering his mid-30s, a time where most players start to truly decline, and he also hasn’t been able to stay healthy during his Clippers tenure thus far. Will the Clippers really be willing to pay him a mega extension or new contract paying him over $50M per year when he’s made just one All-NBA Third Team and two All Stars as a Clipper? Would Paul George be willing to take somewhat of a cut on that – still an insane sum of money – to help the Clippers out and get that final long-term job security? Both questions are unknowable at this point, but “no’s” are fully possible.

That contract question, combined with the Clippers’ incredibly disappointing 2023 season, raises the theoretical possibility of a Paul George trade for the first time. If he wants a max extension and the Clippers don’t want to give it to him, could both sides decide on a mutual parting? It seems unlikely at this stage, since George’s age, injury history, and plateaued play means his trade value probably isn’t that high. Ultimately, my guess is that PG is a Clipper for at least next season, and odds are decent that he signs some sort of deal to keep him in a Clippers jersey for the long-term.

2023 Clippers Exit Interview: Paul George
Robert Flom

After one of the most frustrating and disappointing seasons in recent Clipper memory, LAC’s front office will look at this off-season as yet another crucial opportunity to turn the undeniable talent that the team has under contract into a team that is capable of winning the NBA Championship. Naturally, there’s nothing that Clippers President of Basketball Operations Lawrence Frank can do this summer that will guarantee that Paul George and Kawhi Leonard will be healthy in the 2024 NBA Playoffs–Leonard has missed the Clippers’ last 3 eliminations while George has missed the last 2; their only healthy finale together was the infamous 2nd round meltdown against the Denver Nuggets in the 2020 NBA bubble under previous head coach Doc Rivers. But when asked about potentially giving Paul George and Kawhi Leonard contract extensions after the team was eliminated in the first round of the 2023 NBA Playoffs, Frank certainly seemed open-minded.

The nature of the Clippers’ failed 2022-23 season means it’s fair to put everything on the table, including moving on from one or both of their superstars. At the same time, it feels safe to say that this Clippers brain trust isn’t going to lean into a full tear-down-and-rebuild project. The Clippers won’t have their own first-round pick until 2027, meaning that they won’t get elite prospects even if they’re bad in the next 3 years, and they’re highly motivated to be winning games and drawing crowds in the Intuit Dome, their new arena opening in fall of 2024. Inevitably, just as moving on from the 213 era could be on the table this summer, the Clippers will also assuredly consider contract extensions for Paul George and Kawhi Leonard to keep their top talent in-house and stay competitive for as long as they are still making payments on the trade that brought George to LA.

Can the Clippers give contract extensions to Paul George and Kawhi Leonard?

Yes. Contracts that are 3-4 years in length can be extended on the 2nd anniversary of signing, while contracts that are 5-6 years in length can be extended on the 3rd anniversary of signing. Leonard signed a 4-year contract to stay with the Clippers in July 2021, meaning that the Clippers could add additional years to his deal during this summer’s free agency period. George’s last deal with LAC was actually itself an extension–a December 2020 agreement that left him with 5 years remaining on his contract. While we’re still half a year short of the 3-year anniversary, the NBA has recognized the way that COVID-19 schedule adjustments to the last few seasons have impacted league business typically done according to a 365-day calendar. George signed his extension after the opening of the free agency period and before the start of the regular season, so I expect the league to consider his contract’s “anniversary” based on where it falls on the league calendar–probably making him extension-eligible again later than Kawhi but not in any meaningful way (late August or early September).

What would extensions for Paul George and Kawhi Leonard look like?

George and Leonard have essentially twin contracts, each due to make $46M next season with player options for $49M the following season. Options can either be declined or accepted as part of an extension, and extended contracts can run for a maximum of 5 total seasons (seasons remaining on the original deal + new seasons added). So, full-length extensions for George and Leonard could push their option dates back to the 2027 off-season, or, if their contracts are fully guaranteed with no options, keep them on the books through the end of the 2027-28 season. Of course, there’s no rule that the contracts have go to for the maximum length; it would certainly make sense for the Clippers to angle to not want to commit major money to George and Leonard for ’27-’28 when the duo will be 38 and 36, respectively, during the 2028 NBA Finals. But from a player’s perspective, of course they want to lock in as much guaranteed money as possible before aging, and in these situations we often see teams choose a potential problem in 5 years (owing someone who has declined a bunch of money) over a real problem right now (not re-signing an All-Star).

Figuring out the exact cost of these extensions isn’t an exact science. Again, of course, the Clippers don’t have to give these guys the most money possible, but haggling with players of this caliber is uncommon, so for our purposes it probably makes the most sense to look at what a maximum deal looks like and then consider if the Clippers need to play hardball or not. These extensions can start at the league maximum salary, whether that’s in 2024 (with the 24-25 player options declined and 4 additional years added) or 2025 (with the options picked up and 3 additional years added). But that’s 35% of the salary cap (or 105% of the previous year’s salary, whichever is greater), and it’s unclear where that cap will land in the next few years, as the newest CBA negotiations seem to have seen the Player’s Association concede roster flexibility tools in exchange for increasing the total pot of money (half of Basketball-Related-Income, or BRI) available to the players. New cap smoothing rules will limit the salary cap increases to 10%, and I think we’ll hit that 10% consistently for the next few years. The salary cap is at $123.7M for the currently ending season, meaning we can estimate $136M for 2023-24, $149.6M for 24-25, and as high as $164.6M for 25-26 (again, it could be less, but with the expanded BRI definition and a new TV rights deal incoming, I doubt it).

Why does that matter? Well, if the cap is $149.6M in the 2024 off-season, Paul and Kawhi’s max would be $52.36M, more than the value of their options, meaning it would make sense for them to opt out and tack on 4 more years. Here’s what that could look like:

Of course, there’s still a lot to work out with this collective bargaining agreement–especially if the nature of cap smoothing, expanded BRI, and a new media deal locks in 10% cap increases for the foreseeable future and bird rights contracts remain capped at 8% annual raises, we could see more and more max contract players opting for short-term deals if their raises aren’t going to keep up with salary cap inflation. The Clippers could always negotiate for fewer years or smaller salaries, or the salary cap increases could be less than I estimated. But still, you get the idea: the Clippers are poised to potentially double down on the 213 era to the tune of well over $500 million dollars this summer after four years together yielded just one conference finals appearance three years ago.

Should the Clippers give Paul George and Kawhi Leonard extensions?

This, of course, is the elephant in the room. As George, who just turned 33, and Leonard, who will turn 32 at the end of June, continue to age, how do we project out their declines after already being unable to get over the hump in their 4 years together so far? How do we project out their health after their infamous lack of availability has overshadowed this entire era of Clippers basketball? Will the Clippers be able to build a team good enough to win a championship around these two with the new restrictions on roster flexibility for teams with high payrolls? Are these two good enough to win a title regardless of who you put around them? Is there realistically a path forward without them that makes contention more likely?

As far as Leonard is concerned, I actually think this is an easy question. He’s 14 months younger than George and significantly better. He’s proven that he can be the best player on a title team with 2 NBA Finals MVP awards in 2014 and 2019, and he just rattled off one of the best 3-month stretches of his regular season career after working his way back from ACL reconstruction surgery in the summer of 2021. It’s possible that injuries hold Kawhi back in his 30s and keep the Clippers from reaching the mountaintop with him. But there are only a select few players who seem realistically likely to be capable of being the best player on a championship squad in the next 3-5 years, and not only is Kawhi one of them, but the Clippers have no avenue with which to acquire one of the others. If you want to be the process Sixers, tear things down, win 20 games for the next few years, and hope to strike gold in the draft, you had better go root for a different team–the Clippers don’t have their own picks, and any picks they get from a team they trade Kawhi to won’t be in the top 5. Moving on from Kawhi closes the door on any hope of a Clipper title for the next 5 years. Keeping him won’t guarantee one, but it does keep the door open.

It’s Paul George who causes me to waver more. While he still had an All-Star 2022-23 campaign, George has shown more worrying signs of slowing down, and also seems pretty openly not up for the challenge demanded of him as the 2nd best player on a title team. When Doc Rivers left, he complained that he didn’t have the ball in his hands enough under Rivers. The Clippers made the Western Conference Finals the next year with George shouldering the primary offensive creation load, but this year, he rejected those duties, repeatedly advocating behind the scenes and publically for the Clippers to acquire veteran point guards to take the ball out of his hands. He said on his podcast that bringing the ball up against Jrue Holiday was too hard (it didn’t seem to bother Jimmy Butler) and he wanted to be filling a lane instead. He praised Russell Westbrook, a mid-season buyout addition, for being the Clippers’ leader–a statement that is both undeniably true as it is embarrassing for George, who has been the highest-paid player on the team for 4 years and will be again next year.

Overall, I have concern about George’s evolving fit next to Kawhi Leonard as both players, already not natural lead playmakers, age and look to teammates to shoulder more of the nightly regular season offensive creation. In the 2021 regular season, George and Leonard played 1,027 minutes together, with the Clippers winning those minutes by 17.8 points per 100 possessions. This season, in 994 minutes together, the Clippers won by just 8.2 points per 100 possessions. I wish I could say I think that the entirety of the difference could be attributed to the declining veteran role players on the supporting cast.

But if you aren’t going to extend George, you have to trade him–the last thing the Clippers can afford to happen is to spend next season on a partnership they don’t believe in long-term anyway and then find themselves stuck between paying him next summer or losing him for nothing. If giving George a $200M+ extension is terrifying, not extending or trading him is foolish; the odds of building a winner without him or a good trade return for him are essentially 0. What can the Clippers realistically get for George? Well, we’ll have a lot more time to track rumors and brainstorm as the off-season goes on, but obviously any proposal has to be weighed in terms of fit around Leonard, upside for a medium-term window (assuming Kawhi extends), and whether it makes it more likely for the Clippers to win a title in the Kawhi window. Contratry to some pessimistic Clippers fans, I don’t think it’s unrealistic to think that such a deal could emerge–All-Star level wings are still the most coveted archetype in the NBA, and George is still really good. The Clippers would presumably search for a lead guard at the center of any return, and there are a lot more high-quality 6’2″ starters than 6’8″ ones around the league.

Can the Clippers give Paul George and Kawhi Leonard contract extensions?
Lucas Hann

It’s been hinted at for days, but today the news officially broke that Clippers’ star Paul George is likely out for the entire series against the Suns. Both ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski and TNT and Bleacher Report’s Chris Haynes reported the news nearly simultaneously, confirming what the beat reporters have been indicating.

At this point, it seems like the absolute best scenario for Paul George is that he returns in Game 5 against the Suns – after the only two-day break in the series. Most likely is he doesn’t play at all, or tries to rush back for the final game or two.

Paul George has $45.6M guaranteed for next season and a $48.8M player option for the following season. The Clippers and George himself are absolutely not going to play him if he isn’t ready, not with such a huge investment in salary and overall resources. Furthermore, if the series looks hopeless, like the Clippers trailing 3-1 with the games mostly being non-competitive, it makes the slim chance of a PG return even slimmer.

The Clippers have presumably been preparing for no Paul George, and we at 213 have as well, so all of our game coverage and discussions should still be relevant. Still, this is a huge bummer. The Clippers *can* beat the Suns without any Paul George, but it will be very, very difficult without Suns injuries (and we never root for that, ever). Hopefully the Clippers can hold off for long enough for PG to return, but today’s news means that might mean the entire first round.

Paul George Likely Out For First Round Against Suns
Robert Flom

Paul George, the Clippers’ lone All Star in the 2023 season, was sidelined the last nine games of the regular season with a knee injury. His podcast, Podcast P, announced on Twitter yesterday that the episode dropping this morning would contain an injury update on Paul George.

However, while the podcast hasn’t dropped yet, Shams Charania of the Athletic may have beaten Podcast P to the punch, as he dropped this update on Paul George this morning:

This is, of course, incredibly vague. “Sidelined to begin the first round” seems fairly optimistic, actually, upon glance. After all, that opens the door for a return later in the first round. The most “logical” return has been guessed by many to be Game 3, the first Clippers’ home game of the postseason, which is at least 10 days out.

On the other hand, there is no estimated return date or timeline given, and if the Clippers or PG were confident in one, it probably would have been stated. Additionally, it what now might be some deleted video, Shams mentioned earlier in the morning that to his knowledge, Paul George has not started on scrimmaging or even contact work. If that intel is correct, and maybe it’s not given the later update, it would be difficult to expect Paul George back in the first round at all.

The vagueness is further compounded by “making tangible progress from his knee injury”. While this is all positive – progress, no setbacks, not ruled out from the first round – the vagueness in and of itself is again not super promising.

To sum up, this update on Paul George is a fairly positive one, in that he’s making progress and it seems like a return at least some point this postseason will be possible. When he might make his return is still up in the air, but we will continue to keep you posted as we receive more updates.

Paul George Injury Update: 2023 Postseason In Play
Robert Flom

The latest Paul George knee injury has been quickly evolving, from near- devastating live to a declaration that major ligaments were “spared” during the current reevaluation limbo. But what does it mean that major ligaments were spared if we know there’s a knee sprain? Isn’t a sprain a tear?

I do primary care for my day job, and there are few things that frustrate me more than watching people walk away from a situation with nearly full comprehension but accepting it’s just something they cannot totally understand. Very often this happens with bad backs, tight shoulders, and, you guessed it, painful knees. The Clippers are notoriously tight lipped, and the injury is still fairly fresh in all of our minds. But make no mistake about it: this injury very well could define this season and possibly this era of Clipper basketball. Having a comprehension of what is happening with the information we have could go a long way into putting this out of sight and out of mind during Paul George’s rehab period on his knee.

It helps thinking critically a bit about the nature of Paul George’s injury in the first place, and how the trail of updates that followed places us where we are now. Let’s start from the injury itself and how the nature of it, while graphic in its nature, did leave some hope too. The lack of side to side on his knee movement and moreso his knee being bent backwards (or, you know straightened beyond its means which is what a hyperextension is) made me hopeful that his ACL was spared, as that subtle side to side was noted on Kawhi Leonard’s injury to Joe Ingles. With enough extension, however, it’s hard to say whether the ACL was spared at the time. Hyperextensions do notoriously look worse than they sometimes are structurally. I’m a big fan of Dr. Brian Sutterer’s work and he had a great video of this quickly after the injury:

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Soon after the injury, we got some updates from ESPN writers, the night of and the morning after:

Paul George just left the arena on the back of a cart with his right leg extended. He nodded on his way out. Clippers not expecting to have an update on George tonight.

— Ohm Youngmisuk (@NotoriousOHM) March 22, 2023

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ESPN Sources: After imaging today, Clippers star Paul George has a sprained right knee and will be re-evaluated in 2-to-3 weeks. pic.twitter.com/jgYytDarfs

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) March 22, 2023

Considering the nature of the injury and the length before reevaluation, initially it seemed to fit alongside a PCL injury in my head, and possibly a rare isolated one. Two weeks of hypertextension is standard of care in PCL injuries. It definitely wouldn’t be the worst case scenario: We’ve seen other players, notably Rudy Gobert, deal with it in the past, and he dealt with a Grade 1 sprain and a 4-6 week timeline. 

Sidenote: It is worth noting that the higher the grade, the worse the sprain, Grade 1 and 2 are partial tears, and Grade 3 is either a complete or near complete ear (and Grade 3, due to it’s inherent severity, often features injuries to other major ligaments of the knee and a trip sooner than later to an operating table). All graded sprains are tears, it’s just a matter of how badly torn something is! Remember this when someone asks you if a player had a sprain or a tear!

Following the vagueness of the timeline and left wondering if this was indeed a PCL sprain, the Clippers did give a bit of information about what was injured.. Or perhaps more importantly, what wasn’t injured. Per many of our great beat writers, major ligaments were apparently spared:

Paul George won’t be at Crypto tonight as he begins his rehab. There’s an optimism as it begins: The imaging showed PG avoided damaging the ligaments in his knee. Surgery isn’t something that is expected to be needed for George.

— Andrew Greif (@AndrewGreif) March 24, 2023

Now, if the ACL/PCL/MCL/LCL were all spared, where exactly is the knee injury? Why are we even calling this a knee sprain? This is where things get a little bit more foggy since the team has not directly provided us with more than “he’s hurt, but avoided catastrophe.” To think about what could be happening if major ligament damage was avoided, it’s worth remembering the first player that came to my mind and many people’s minds when seeing George’s injury: Giannis Antentokounmpo.

As Dr. Sutterer mentioned in the video linked above, before you hit your major ligaments, zooming out there is a protective knee capsule that aids in movements, including extension. In the capsule, there’s an outer fibrous layer, just as fibrous cords compose major ligaments you are familiar with, and an inner synovial membrane that secretes synovial fluid to reduce friction on movement at the knee joint. So essentially, an outer tough layer and an inner friction reducing one. The knee capsule can indeed be sprained, and has had some famous sprains in the past.

Jeff Stotts is a certified athletic trainer and had this nice quick rundown of the Giannis injury. Giannis had a mild knee capsule sprain that caused him to miss a week. He also mentioned Rudy Gay having a similar injury that took him out one game, but Jimmy Butler had an injury in 2016 that took him about 11 games and nagged him through the rest of the season. However, if the Paul George knee injury is indeed to this surrounding capsule rather than the ligaments/bone beneath it, it could be promising for his return. Isolated capsule strains are also rare, so George indeed would have been fortunate.

Of course we have not been told directly that this is the specific injury, and even if it was, it may be severe enough like any of these injuries that it might hold him back from a return even if the Clippers do make it to the playoffs. Paul George even mentioned on his podcast that he doesn’t know the timetable of his return at this point. But it’s good to have an idea of what possibly could be happening with Paul George and his knee, especially taking faith in that update that major ligaments were not harmed. We all share trauma of many unfortunate knee injuries in Clipper history, here’s hoping that the team finally stumbled into some luck with this one.

The Paul George Knee Sprain Timeline
Shapan Debnath

It was just announced on TNT that Clippers’ guard Paul George has made the 2023 All Star Game as a reserve, voted by NBA coaches. This is PG’s 8th All Star Game, adding another accolade to what is already a first-ballot Hall of Fame career.

George is averaging 23.3 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 5.4 assists in 34.1 minutes across 37 games played while shooting 52.5% from 2, 38.5% from three, and 88.5% from the free throw line while playing very good defense. He’s also effectively acted as the Clippers’ point guard for much of the season, which has led to increased turnovers, but also to a ton of offensive production.

While George has missed some time with injuries, so have a number of other established Western Conference stars, including Devin Booker and Anthony Davis, and the Clippers’ own Kawhi Leonard. For the coaches, 37 games with a hefty minutes load was enough for PG, who has certainly been an All Star caliber player this year. The Clippers’ recent turnaround and placement as the 4th seed in the West probably also helped. Personally, Paul George might have been behind Kawhi for me, as even though Kawhi has played a lot less, he’s been so good in his games played that I think he could have squeaked by. However, coaches are usually anti load-management, and that certainly hurt Kawhi in this setting.

Congratulations to Paul George on making the 2023 All Star Game!

Paul George Makes the 2023 All Star Game as Reserve
Robert Flom