After a spirited Game 4 performance, the LA Clippers gave home court advantage right back to the Mavericks, losing a pivotal Game 5 123-93 at home.

Summary

The game had the feel of a matinee game, as the Clippers stars started off very slowly. Thankfully, the Clippers supporting cast of Terance Mann and Ivica Zubac scored 15 of LA’s 24 points in the first quarter. Paul George and James Harden were ice cold, combined 2 of 10 in the quarter, though Harden was at least finding the role players to finish plays. Meanwhile Dallas was led by a hobbled Luka Doncic and the high-jumping Derrick Jones Jr., with contributions from Kyrie Irving and Dereck Lively.

The second quarter was all Dallas. Dallas’ game plan was clearly to push the pace, and it was working. Poor defensive gambles by Russell Westbrook and Mason Plumlee often left the Clippers scrambling, leading to 4 (!) wide open three pointers made by Maxi Kleber for 12 points in the frame, and 8 easy points for Daniel Gafford. For the Clippers, Paul George looked invisible on offense (up to 7 for the half) and disengaged on defense. The dynamic duo of Terance and Zu were up to 24 points, with Norman Powell contributing 6 points as well. But it wasn’t enough as the Clippers found themselves trailing by 10 at halftime. 

The third quarter was more of the same. The Clippers scored 4 points for the large majority of the period, largely thanks to Paul George somehow further retreating into his shell. The lead swelled to 25 before Ty Lue inserted PJ Tucker into the game with 2:50 left in the period. Tucker immediately had an impact with his energy. The Clippers managed to cut the lead to 16, thanks to a series of stops and George finally finding his shooting stroke, before Plumlee committed a backbreakingly stupid foul, giving up a 4-point play to Josh Green and leaving the Clippers trailing by 20 again.

In the fourth quarter, the Clippers came out with desperate energy, but it wasn’t enough against the comfortable and disciplined Mavericks. There were multiple possessions with multiple attempts that ended up fruitless, and that pretty much ended the night for the Clippers. With 7 minutes left in the game Ty pulled the stars. More than any other game this series, the Clippers sorely missed Kawhi Leonard’s steadying presence and star power tonight.

Notes

Where’s Pauldo?: Aside from a brief stretch at the end of the third quarter, Paul George was the most frustrating version of himself: the one that seems to prefer being a role player standing in the corner and giving the ball to the team’s actual stars. He was constantly throwing grenades to his teammates, forcing Amir Coffey and Norman Powell to create something out of nothing with less than 5 seconds on the clock. Paul would often look like he was going to make something happen, and then the briefest hint of defense would send him backpedaling. It might seem harsh, but he’s supposed to be the best scorer for the Clippers right now. Credit to the defense of course, but there was just no effort and drive tonight. The Clippers absolutely cannot survive another performance like this from him. 15 points in a must-win game on 31% shooting with 0 steals and 0 blocks. Paul can—no, Paul must be better.

The Harden Roller Coaster: After a masterclass in Game 4, we knew the other side of the Harden coin was coming at some point. Harden’s shot wasn’t falling all game, but at least in the first half he was finding his teammates. But in the second half he completely lost the plot, with 0 assists and 3 turnovers. I’m in no way blaming this loss on Harden because the Clippers can survive nights like this from him, as they have many times this season, even when short-handed. But the Clippers can’t survive nights like this when they’re also getting the goofy version of Paul George.

Defending the Role Players: The Clippers got solid games from Zu, Terance, and Norman, but the Mavericks’ role players outplayed them. Kleber was a flamethrower from deep, hitting timely three after timely three, DJJ was blocking shots left and right, and Lively was a constant lob threat. The Clippers had been defending the Mavericks’ stars well enough all series, making them score the hard way. But their inability to stop the Mavericks’ role players tonight was what doomed them. And it’s not like Dallas’ supporting cast is particularly adept at scoring, but poor rotations and puzzling defensive decision-making led to a lot of wide open shots.

Luka Doncic Flu Game: After telling the media he was sick, Luka proceeded to put up 35 points on 54% shooting. Next time I’m going to need to see a doctor’s note because I call BS.

And that was Game 5. Let’s never, ever speak of it again. Fortunately for the Clippers, they’re better on the road than at home this year. So by my estimation they’ve still got a puncher’s chance at tying up the series 3-3 and sending this thing back to LA for Game 7.

Clippers vs Mavericks Game 5 Recap: Clippers Stars Vanish in 123-93 Loss at Home
Erik Olsgaard

After taking back home court advantage from the Dallas Mavericks in an instant classic Game 4, the Clippers are back in Los Angeles for Game 5, hoping to take a 3-2 advantage in the series.

Game Information

Where: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California

When: 7:00 PM PT

How to Watch: TNT, Bally Sports SoCal, AM 570

Tickets: For great deals on Clippers tickets, check out Barry’s Tickets!

Projected Starting Lineups

Clippers: James Harden – Terance Mann – Paul George – Amir Coffey  – Ivica Zubac

Mavericks: Kyrie Irving – Luka Doncic – Derrick Jones Jr. – PJ Washington – Dereck Lively II

Injuries

Clippers: Kawhi Leonard Out (Knee)

Mavericks: Luka Doncic Probable (Knee), Tim Hardaway Jr. Out (Ankle), Daniel Gafford Questionable (Back), Olivier Maxence-Prosper Out (Ankle)

Notes

Kawhi’s Health: Before Game 4, when Lawrence Frank noted that Kawhi was out for the game, he said that the team wouldn’t put a timetable on Kawhi’s return and that the Clippers’ star wouldn’t be back until “he can make all the movements that he needs to make.” So there’s a good chance that Kawhi is not coming back during this series. And even if he does try to will himself back, is that actually the best thing for the team? The Clippers have found success without Kawhi on the court, thanks to the heroics of James Harden and Paul George. For any real championship run, the Clippers will need a healthy Kawhi Leonard. And so getting past the first round without him, giving him that time to heal, is probably their only realistic path.

The Mavs’ Next Chess Move: What cards do the Mavericks have up their sleeve? Our instincts tell us that surely a Luka master-class is coming, but if his knee continues to be an issue, maybe it’s not such a guarantee. And we’ve already seen one Kyrie explosion in game 4. But what else can Jason Kidd get out of this Dallas roster? The Mavs had been best going small, but in Game 4 James Harden repeatedly carved up the smaller lineup with short floaters that he’s been practicing, a shot which Jason Kidd appears comfortable to let him continue to take. So do they go big again? It hasn’t been working when they have, largely because neither Gafford nor Lively can pull Zubac away from the paint, and both have been doormats for Big Zu in the post. Right now the pressure is all on Dallas to adjust because they can’t just assume Kyrie will be able to produce another Steph Curry impression, and Luka is already doing all he can.

Luka’s Knee: Luka’s listed as probable for Game 5, which isn’t surprising, but his sprained knee clearly isn’t 100%. He’s been a step slow offensively, and he’s got limited lift on his usually terrifying step-back three ball, shooting just 26.5% from three in the series (and 17.4% in Games 3 and 4). That said, “struggling” Luka is still averaging 29-10-9 and is still incredibly dangerous inside 15 feet. The Clippers can’t let his health disarm them, but they’d also be fools to ignore it. The game plan should continue to be to attack him at the point-of-attack with playmakers who will keep him working hard on both ends.

Following Up Game 4: Game 4 was probably the most entertaining game of these 2024 playoffs. The shot-making was off the charts, the System was in full effect, and everyone had their turns shining. In the final minutes Kyrie Irving and Paul George each took the lead from one another with two of the most insanely difficult shots of the year. But despite coughing up the 31-point lead, the Clippers still have plenty of momentum after holding on to Game 4. And we know Paul George loves his Game 5’s, so we can expect a similar level of swagger. If he can be as decisive as he was in the first half of Game 4, if Harden can continue to pick his defenders wisely, and if the Clippers can stay the course with their mostly-effective Luka strategy, they have a good shot.

Disclaimer: 213Hoops may receive compensation for some links to products and services in this post.

Clippers vs. Mavs Game 5 Preview: Protecting Home Court
Erik Olsgaard

It’s like deja vu all over again–the LA Clippers and Dallas Mavericks will meet in the first round of the NBA playoffs, just as they did last year in the Orlando bubble. For both teams, who made upgrades but kept their cores relatively intact, the re-match will be a test of how effectively they tweaked in the margins in the last year.

The Big Picture

Would you believe me if I told you that the Clippers were worse this season than they were last season? They went 47-25, winning 65.3% of their games, after winning 68.1% of their games last year and posting a record of 49-23. In terms of advanced numbers, their net rating decreased slightly from 6.3 to 6.1. The team finished third in offensive rating after coming in second last year (though they still improved markedly on offense as part of a league-wide scoring surge), but dropped off from 5th to 8th in defensive rating. And while Paul George and Kawhi Leonard both missed substantial time, it was more or less level with last season: George played in 6 more games this year compared to last while Leonard played in 5 fewer.

Of course, there’s a difference between measuring what has happened so far and predicting what is to come. That the Clippers had a worse record and worse net rating than last season is fairly easy and uncontroversial. There are also some pretty easy ways to offset those concerns–starting with the fact that the two-game difference in win-loss could have easily been made up if the Clippers had been at all interested in winning their last two games of the season against the tanking Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder. But the organization, seemingly convinced that the path to playoff success was easier from the 4-seed, out-tanked some of the most shamelessly tanking franchises in the NBA (mostly by feeding the ball to Daniel Oturu a ton), and the result was a pair of losses and a dent in advanced metrics.

Still, LAC was far from dominant this season. It’s times like this that I start to be a bit wary of the success that the Canoes–as coined by Brian Cullen, the second- and third-string Clippers who provided the best moments of the season in some severely shorthanded wins. Luke Kennard going 8-8 in the second half against the Atlanta Hawks and Reggie Jackson having 29 points and a gamewinner in Detroit may have been the two most fun moments of the year for Clippers fans… and neither is particularly relevant for how LA will play in the postseason. The good news is that as the Clippers shorten their rotation and play George and Leonard each around 40 minutes a night in the playoffs, that the team has a +17.6 net rating when that duo shares the court this season. Last year, that number was +13.2, in over 100 fewer minutes.

The increased success in George and Leonard’s shared minutes is likely twofold: first, because of the other three players on the floor (Marcus Morris and Nic Batum manned the PF position all season this year instead of Moe Harkless up until the trade deadline last season), and second, because new head coach Ty Lue has deployed his stars in a more complimentary fashion than his predecessor, Doc Rivers. Leonard works more frequently out of the post, coming off of cross-screens from a guard to create size mismatches that force defenses to help and scramble to the Clippers’ elite three-point shooters. The result was more shots in the paint for Kawhi than last season, converted at a higher rate. In total, he shot 55.7% on two-point attempts this season, his highest mark as a high-usage star, after a career-worst 50.6% last year. George is the de facto point guard, running a ton of pick-and-rolls that allowed him to step up his dribble penetration (33.1% of his FGA came from within 10 feet, compared to 27.5% last season and 29.5% career average) and distribution (his 7.6 assists per 100 possession blew his previous career high, 6.2 last season, out of the water).

But as each star’s new role produced greater highs, some warts have been magnified. George in particular is often sloppy with the ball, giving away 5 or more turnovers 14 times this season in sometimes particularly careless fashion. When Leonard plays without George, the team’s offensive flow tends to become a bit stagnant, with Kawhi holding on to the ball and hunting mid-range shots as static shooters watch. As much as the discourse surrounding this Clippers team will focus on changes to its role players–the undeniable upgrade from Montrezl Harrell to Serge Ibaka, Nicolas Batum’s redemption arc, and Rajon Rondo’s presence as a battle-tested veteran guard–it’s most often the case that a team’s success or downfall in the postseason has to do with its stars rising or shrinking away from the moment. While his reputation as a playoff failure is dramatically overstated, George clearly has more to prove in this regard than two-time NBA Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard–but at the end of the way, neither guy rose well enough to the occassion in the team’s second-round collapse against the Denver Nuggets, even as we rightfully blame that series on the Doc Rivers-Montrezl Harrell dynamic. If LA, with Paul and Kawhi performing at their bests, runs into another contender headlined by superstars performing at their bests, then the impact of role players in the margins will be significant. But if Ty Lue can’t maximize his stars, it’s unlikely that a good weak-side rotation and extra pass from Nic Batum is swinging a series.

The Antagonist

Clippers fans, naturally, will already be familiar with the Dallas Mavericks, in particular young superstar Luka Doncic, after the two teams ran into each other in the playoffs last season. It didn’t help matters that Dallas came out firing in the teams’ next meeting, running the Clippers off of the STAPLES Center court by 51 points in an outright embarrassing post-Christmas effort.

A lot of what we’ll see from Dallas in this series will be similar to what we saw from them last year. After all, Luka Doncic, now 22 years old, isn’t going anywhere any time soon. He’s among the most dominant individual offensive players in basketball, and he’ll once again get some down-ballot MVP votes and an All-NBA berth after leading the Mavericks to the 5th seed in the Western Conference. Doncic only averaged 36 minutes per game in this series last season, but trips to the locker room with a nagging ankle injury and extra rest during garbage time of game 5 makes that number a bit untrustworthy–in reality, Luka will be on the court for almost the entire series, and the ball will be in his hands for most of Dallas’ possessions. The first question of any gameplan against the Mavericks has to be how you hope to contain Luka… and the second might be how to make damn sure you win the non-Luka minutes. The advantage that the Clippers have with their ability to stagger Paul George and Kawhi Leonard should give them a notable advantage in that regard.

Beyond Luka, two of Dallas’ most important players will be back in the lineup this time around. Kristaps Porzingis, who played the first three games last year before being sidelined with a knee injury, is the Mavs’ second most prolific scorer, but nearly 80% of his shots are assisted. He’s the primary beneficiary of Doncic’s creation–and with 14 30+ point games in the last two years, including game 3 of this match-up last season, he’s capable of producing big scoring nights playing off of Luka. In terms of shot creation, Jalen Brunson, who missed the entire series last year, will play crucial role off the bench in running the offense and helping buy Luka rest. While Brunson isn’t necessarily likely to have explosive scoring outings, his hard-nosed defense and heady offensive leadership make him one of the most valuable Mavericks.

Supporting scorer Tim Hardaway Jr., who has shot the ball at a blistering rate in recent weeks (40.7% on high volume over his last thirty-four games), is the most likely third Maverick to have a huge scoring game. He’s broken the 30-point threshold 5 times this season, including a 42-point outing. And just a couple of weeks ago against Miami, he made 10 three pointers in a game. Hardaway did have a solid series against the Clippers last year, scoring 17.8 points per game, but they kept his efficiency in check (just 42% from the field and 35% from deep). Other key rotation fixtures for Dallas include two-way wing Josh Richardson, 3-and-D forward Dorian Finney-Smith, and versatile 4/5 Maxi Kleber–one of my favorite role players in the league. Dwight Powell also played a larger role down the stretch of the season, but it’s hard to see where he fits against the Clippers. If Powell plays at PF next to Porzingis and guards Morris, that necessarily forces Doncic to defend Patrick Beverley (they won’t assign him to one of the stars), leaving Rick Carlisle in a position where he either has to move Hardaway Jr. back to the bench or put him at a major disadvantage defensively against Paul George.

From where I sit, the Mavs should probably start Doncic on Morris, Hardaway on Beverley, Porzingis on Zubac, and two of Richardson, Finney-Smith, and Kleber against George and Leonard. Kleber drew the Leonard assignment last season, and while Kawhi still had a strong series I thought that Maxi did as good of a job as anyone on Dallas’ roster. Then, the third defender, Brunson, and Powell should make up the core of Carlisle’s bench rotation. We should expect a sprinkling of spot minutes for other players as well, though: Trey Burke had a fantastic series against LAC last year with Brunson injured and is still with the team this year as an extra scoring option on the bench, former Clipper sharpshooter J.J. Redick joined the Mavs in a mid-season trade and figures to make an impact at some point, and Boban Marjanovic and Willie Cauley-Stein give the Mavs two completely different utility center options.

Sub-Plots

• Redemption: While Paul George’s body of work in the playoffs is dramatically underrated, there’s little doubt that he had a really, really bad series against Dallas last season–most notably in games 2, 3, and 4 (LAC lost games 2 and 4), where he averaged just 11 points and shot a cumulative 10 of 47 from the field. After a resounding bounceback in game 5, he revealed that being isolated in the NBA’s Orlando bubble had caused him mental health struggles that contributed to not feeling like himself on or off the court. PG hasn’t been shy about having a chip on his shoulder coming into this year, and after a stellar regular season campaign, this series is yet another important proving ground. I’ll say this: the upgrade from 2020 round 1 Paul George to normal Paul George would be more significant for LAC than having Porzingis back in the lineup will be for Dallas.

• Doc, Trez, and Boban: In a bit of foreshadowing, one of the Clippers’ most glaring weaknesses in their series against Dallas last year was, sure enough, Montrezl Harrell. Rick Carlisle (along with everyone else in the universe except for Doc Rivers, apparently) knew that Boban’s sheer size had a history of overwhelming the small but energetic and skilled Harrell, whose inability to step outside and hit jumpers led to general ineffectiveness against a guy 8 inches taller than him. It’s not even really Trez’s fault at that point. In the 65 minutes that Boban and Trez shared the floor last time around, the Mavericks won by 25 points. And remember Luka’s iconic game 4 buzzerbeater? (How could we forget?) One lost piece of context is that in that game, the Clippers had a 21-point lead… and lost Harrell’s 17 minutes by 19 points (Doc really never did learn from his mistakes). That won’t be a factor this time around.

• Big Zu: In this space 9 months ago, I asked “Can Zu stay on the floor?”, worried about Dallas’ floor-spacing bigs and Zu’s foot speed defending the pick and roll. But Zu was fantastic in the series, punishing Dallas on the offensive glass and walling off Doncic’s drive in help defense as Rivers smartly switched Zubac onto Finney Smith and encouraged him to leave the corner shooter and allow other Clippers to rotate when they forced Luka to kick the ball out. Consider the following:

• Grudge Match: The Clippers and Mavericks had a tense series last year, and both teams will definitely be ready to pick up right where they left off. In the meantime, Dallas gave the Clippers a historically embarrassing home loss. Plus, former Clipper J.J. Redick has since joined the Mavs, and even more notably, much-maligned former Maverick Rajon Rondo joined the Clippers. There’s bad blood here… but at least we won’t have to hear about how Doc Rivers paid for Seth Curry’s wedding every game of the series, with that pair united with Philadelphia this time around.

• Preview Podcast: Out tomorrow, we’ll have a special series preview episode of The Lob, The Jam, The Podcast with The Athletic’s Dallas Mavericks Beat Writer, Tim Cato. In the meantime, check out our season recap episode with voice of the Clippers Brian Sieman–it was a treat to get him on the show and he was wonderful, as always.

Clippers and Mavericks First Round Prediction: Clippers in 6

As much as we can get into the nitty gritty of who is going to guard whom, and what the rotations and strategies will be for each side, the ultimate reality of this series is that the Clippers are just the better, more talented, deeper team–just like they were last year. Each team has some reasons to feel like they’re stronger (George’s mental state + the removal of Doc/Trez vs the health of Porzingis, Powell, and Brunson), but the overall calculus doesn’t seem to have changed.

That said, Dallas is fully awake. After a slow 8-13 start to the season, they finished 34-17 and had won 12 of 15 to close the year (against a very soft schedule). They’re going to show up to STAPLES Center Saturday afternoon and punch first. The Clippers… just don’t feel there yet. Even as they won 17 of 20 from March 20th thru April 23rd, they did so with a rotating group of players (George and Leonard only played together in 9 of those 20 games). Serge Ibaka and Patrick Beverley both missed a huge swath of the season and only returned in the closing games. Neither has gotten much time at all alongside Rajon Rondo, who joined the team at the trade deadline. Beverley in particular has not looked like himself since returning to the team. The playoff rotation hasn’t gotten together and gone through a few battles intact yet. I think that as they round into form, they’ll drop one of the first two games in LA and then a second later in the series when an unstoppable Luka performance comes at the same time as a barrage of threes from the supporting cast. In fact, the Clippers winning games 1, 3, 5, and 6–just like last year–wouldn’t surprise me at all.

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2021 NBA Playoffs Series Preview: Clippers and Mavericks Meet in First Round
Lucas Hann

The LA Clippers have only one option against the Dallas Mavericks in game 5: bounce back. After an embarrassing game 4 loss, the Clippers fell to a 2-2 tie in the best-of-seven series, making game 5 an absolutely crucial, pivotal game for both teams.

Game Information

Where: Disneyworld, Orlando, Florida
When: 6:00 PM PT
How to Watch: TNT, Prime Ticket

Projected Starting Lineups

Clippers: Landry Shamet – Paul George – Kawhi Leonard – Marcus Morris – Ivica Zubac
Mavericks: Luka Doncic – Tim Hardaway, Jr. – Dorian Finney-Smith – Maxi Kleber – Kristaps Porzingis

Injury Report

Clippers: Patrick Beverley – Doubtful (left calf strain)
Mavericks: Kristaps Porzingis – Game-time decision (knee soreness), Luka Doncic – Probable (sprained ankle), Trey Burke – Probable (sprained ankle)

The Big Picture

The Clippers have struggled to play consistently good basketball in this series, and as losses mount in the first round, faith in this team and several of its core parts is beginning to wane.

That’s probably premature. On its face, losing two games to a very good Dallas Mavericks team in the first round is hardly a sign that this Clippers squad isn’t a championship-caliber team. Last year, the top-seeded Golden State Warriors lost two first-round games to an 8th-place Clippers team that was much less scary than this Mavs group. The eventual champion, Toronto, faced criticism after losing game 1 in the first round to the even lowlier Orlando Magic. Later, in the Eastern Conference Finals, they came one insane bounce away from potentially going to overtime in game 7 and missing the Finals entirely. Nobody’s perfect, and sometimes even champions need a little luck.

What matters for the Clippers, particularly the guilty parties in these two losses, is that the team finds its bearing down the stretch of this series to survive, advance, and keep improving as the playoffs continue. I know we’re conditioned to expect perfection and greatness at all times, but the reality is that for finalists, the NBA Playoffs are a roughly 25-game, 8-week tournament. We’d never expect a team to go 25 regular-season games without a game where they drop the ball, or a scoring slump for an important player, any more than we would expect to see 25 games without a hot shooting night or a surprising role player earning more minutes.

If the Clippers lose tonight in game 5, their season won’t be over, but their margin for error will be reduced to 0, needing to win games 6 and 7 just to head into the second round at a rest disadvantage (likely against a seasoned Utah Jazz team starring Donovan Mitchell’s blistering playoff scoring). I don’t need to spell out how significant a game 5 win is in a series tied 2-2. The Clippers’ job tonight is simple: bounce back.

The Antagonist

That simple job is complicated by the team of men standing in the Clippers’ way, most notably 21-year-old Slovenian phenom Luka Doncic. A lot of times, the word phenom adequately captures the young player we’re talking about, like if I were describing the heroics of Devin Booker against the Clippers in the bubble two weeks ago.

It doesn’t quite do Luka justice. I’m not prepared to make a statement as bold as “Luka is better at his age than LeBron James or Michael Jordan was”–but I’ll take the cowardly route of saying he’s at least in the conversation with those two. Doncic’s legacy will be determined over the next fifteen years or so, and his ability to lead teams to titles and repeat iconic performances like Sunday’s game 4 will determine how history views him. For now, we can only say (with respect to these Hall of Famers) that his career trajectory isn’t along the lines of A-list stars like Damian Lillard and James Harden, but rather those of James, Jordan, and the Clippers’ own two-time NBA Finals MVP, Kawhi Leonard.

Despite Doncic’s greatness, the Clippers can blame themselves for Dallas’ two wins in this series. With all credit to Doncic, Rick Carlisle, and the rest of the Mavericks for playing well and perfectly positioning themselves to take advantage of LA’s mistakes, this series has come down to just that: LA’s mistakes. Now, the Clippers have given the Mavericks something very dangerous: hope.

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If Dallas hadn’t come back from down 21 in the second quarter of game 4, if they hadn’t gone on a 16-0 run in the third to take the lead, if Doncic hadn’t hit a 28-foot step-back three at the buzzer to lift the Mavs to an overtime victory, then that might not be a factor. Dallas would be down 3-1, needing three straight wins against a team that had beaten them six of seven times this season. Now, the younger, less-experienced Mavericks can look at a 2-2 series and note that their two losses came first in a game where their second star, Kristaps Porzingis, was ejected, and then in a game where Doncic exited early with an ankle injury. Not only did they win game 2 at full strength, but they triumphed in game 4 with Porzingis sidelined with a knee injury.

The task in front of the Mavericks is to win two of the next three games against the LA Clippers. How can they not believe in their ability to do so when they just won two out of the last three games?

It is unimaginably hard to beat a good team, playing high-intensity basketball a full strength, four times in a row. Winning an NBA playoff series in four or five games requires not just being the better team, but convincing your opponent to roll over because the series is all but over anyway. There will be no such quit in Doncic and the Mavericks after game 4.

Notes

• Kristaps’ knee: Dallas’ second-best player missed game 4 with right knee soreness, and is considered a game-time decision for game 5. Porzingis has a history with knee injuries, and missed a stretch of 10 games with knee soreness earlier in the season, so my guess is that if the pain was bad enough for him to miss a playoff game on Sunday, it’s gotta be something that’s really bothering him. But while Kristaps is the Mavs’ second star, this isn’t a 1A vs 1B situation with him and Luka–it’s more like a 1 vs 3. Porzingis had ten 30-point games this season, and 34 in game 3, so I’m not saying he doesn’t matter, just that he’s the most prolific member of Luka’s supporting cast rather than a true second star. In that 10-game stretch with KP out of the lineup, the Mavs (who won 57% of their games this season) went 6-4. Luka is still Luka. Where Porzingis’ absence matters most is with Dallas’ big depth–due to injuries and bubble weirdness, 6’10” PF/C Maxi Kleber (who the Mavs are using to guard Kawhi Leonard) and Boban Marjanovic are Rick Carlisle’s only other options down low. If Porzingis is out again, the Clippers can exploit that lack of depth by getting Kleber in foul trouble and exposing Boban defensively by using his man to set ball screens.

• The Clippers’ guards can’t guard: LA has their own depth dilemma in the backcourt, where Patrick Beverley’s absence has left Doc Rivers with 3 rotation guards (Reggie Jackson, Lou Williams, and Landry Shamet) who are all poor defenders. Jackson in particular has been exposed this series as the Mavs have targeted him for switches. As long as Patrick Beverley remains out with a calf injury, Rivers is hard-pressed to build a rotation that never features two of these poor defensive guards sharing the floor, but he can make some adjustments to help protect them. First, staggering Ivica Zubac’s minutes with the second unit will help keep a rim protector behind Jackson, Williams, and Shamet instead of allowing free layups against Montrezl Harrell’s abysmal help defense. Beyond that, Rivers desperately needs to tap into his depth and use Rodney McGruder, an experienced veteran known for his grit and perimeter defense, in spot minutes to provide a bridge between more stable defensive lineups.

• Sustainable shooting: The main beneficiaries of the Clippers’ poor defensive depth in the backcourt have been Mavericks Trey Burke and Seth Curry, who have had absurd series shooting the ball: Burke shooting 58% from the field and 50% from deep (career averages 41% and 34.5%) and Curry shooting 65% and 56.3% (career averages 47.5% and 44.3%). These guys staying this hot for this long feels like classic Clipper Curse material, but in reality they are both streaky scorers who the Clippers have allowed to get hot against poor defenders. The aforementioned adjustments, like utilizing McGruder and employing Zubac as a second-unit rim protector, would help to prevent Burke and Curry from getting going to begin with.

• Montrezl’s Nightmare: It’s no secret that Montrezl Harrell has been unplayably bad through four games of this series. While he’s still getting in shape and shaking the rust off after an extended absence to deal with a tragic death in his family, as well as mentally processing that mourning, I don’t think his struggles in this series have much to do with him at all–Doc Rivers is failing to put him in a position to succeed. It’s not a secret that Harrell is an undersized big who relies on his strength to bully taller and longer-armed opponents, but struggles to score outside the paint and can be contained when opposing length limits his attempts at the rim.
  
  The 7’4″ Marjanovic, who plays backup center for Dallas, is simply too tall, too long, and too strong for Harrell’s normal schtick to work. It’s a nightmare matchup for the presumptive sixth man of the year, and it’s shown: the Clippers have been outscored by 46 points in the 72 minutes Harrell has spent on the floor this series (including him being -19 in 17 minutes in game 4, which was tied at the end of regulation!).
  
  That isn’t entirely his fault–he’s frequently playing in lineups with two of the three aforementioned poor guard defenders–but it’s a clear indicator that every time Rivers has deployed him in this series to anchor a lineup, it has been an abject failure. His lineups have allowed more Mavericks points (210) in 72 minutes than Zubac’s lineups have in 92 minutes (208). Harrell never attempted fewer than 6 shots in a game this season; he’s gotten 5, 4, 5, and 2 FGA up in the four games this series.
  
  In Dallas’ two wins, Marjanovic was +12 in 10 minutes and +11 in 16 minutes, almost all coming against Harrell. The Clippers had their 21-point lead cut to 8 in the second quarter of game 4 as Harrell and Marjanovic faced off at the center position. I wrote in my series preview that Boban was the perfect neutralizer for Trez. There is no other interpretation, and no way around it: if Rivers does not either bench Harrell or find a way to put him in better positions to succeed, the Clippers will lose this series.

• Playoff P: If Rivers is responsible for Montrezl Harrell’s nightmare series, then “Playoff P” himself is responsible for his own. Paul George has had a historically abysmal series offensively, becoming just the second player in NBA history to shoot worse than 25% from the field in three consecutive playoff games where he attempted 14 or more shots after Howie Dallmar in 1948. Basketball wasn’t even basketball in 1948.
  
  Despite the memes, George has never actually been a bad playoff performer. Over the last two years in Oklahoma City, he averaged 27 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assists on 42/34/84 splits. It didn’t quite measure up to his regular-season efficiency, but for an 11-game sample size in an environment with heightened defensive intensity, it’s a fairly normal line. If he was posting that for the Clippers, this series would be over already.
  
  He recorded a few stinkers with OKC, shooting 6-21 in game 2 against Utah in 2018 and 3-16 in game 3 against Portland in 2019 (interestingly, OKC’s only win in that series). Of course, there was the infamous elimination game in that 2018 OKC-Utah series, where he managed just 5 points on 2-16 shooting. But in his 11-game OKC sample, those 3 performances have to be weighed against his good nights: 5 30-point outings, including 36/9/3 on 14-20 shooting in an elimination game last year. George is prone to bad playoff performances, but on average he isn’t a bad playoff player.
  
  After a pretty great start to this series (27 points on 10-22 from the field in game 1), George has been straight-up horrible. In games 2, 3, and 4, he combined for 34 points on 10-47 shooting. While you can point to his non-scoring contributions (27 rebounds, 12 assists, and some solid defense in those three games), it’s this simple: the Clippers didn’t trade 7 draft picks and pay PG $30 million so he could do the little things. He needs to show up for them to win a title. He needs to score.
  
  Anyone can miss some shots, but what PG needs most of all is confidence. He claimed after game 4 that he is playing confidently. He’s wrong. It doesn’t take an astute observer to see how scared he is playing offensively: in both games 3 and 4, he lucked into easy opportunities near the basket in the closing minutes and was extremely timid. A late missed layup in game 4 was one of many plays that cost LAC a 3-1 lead in the series. Great scorers know that when their shot isn’t falling, it’s still their job to produce for their team, so they make a point of aggressively getting to the rim for either a high-percentage look or a pair of free throws. George hasn’t done that, attempting just 13 free throw this series (by the way, he’s made all 13). If he’s going to get his head right and help the Clippers win this series and an eventual championship, an assistant coach or veteran leader needs to convince him that the way out of his slump is to relentlessly attack the rim, whether the result is a dunk, a miss, a turnover, or free throws.

• Zubac’s minutes: Ivica Zubac has been the Clippers’ best center all year. Sure, he had some good bubble games and Harrell’s struggles in this series have been egregious, but I said it then and I’ll say it now: Zubac was better in December and January too. He should have played more all year, and he should be playing more in this series. In total, the Clippers have won the 92 minutes he’s been on the court by 35 points. More importantly, the Clippers get crushed when he’s off the court: -9 in 26 minutes in game 1, -9 in 30 minutes in game 2, -5 in 18 minutes in game 3, and -11 in 32 minutes in game 4. It’s not an accident that Zubac played the most he’s played all season, 30 minutes, in the Clippers’ best game in this series, game 3. Even in that game, the Clippers won the first half by 14 points (all +14 coming in Zu’s 19 first-half minutes) and lost the second half by 6 points (going -1 in Zu’s 11 minutes and -5 in 13 non-Zu minutes).
  
  Zubac can’t play 48 minutes, and Rivers needs to find sustainable solutions to getting him rest, either finding playable scenarios for Harrell, utilizing small-ball lineups with Marcus Morris and JaMychal Green, or throwing spot minutes to veteran center Joakim Noah. But the conversation needs to be about Zu’s rest: he should be playing as much as his conditioning will allow, potentially in the mid-to-high 30s along with Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and Marcus Morris.

• Doubleheader: Obviously the Clippers can only focus on themselves right now–they’re in enough trouble in this series that they don’t need to worry about what’s going on around the league. But for the rest of us, helplessly watching at home, it’s worth noting that the game before LA’s matters too. After over a week of quadruple-header playoff action, Eastern Conference sweeps (by the way, end conferences, the EC is staggeringly weaker than the WC and their good teams essentially get byes) have left us with just Utah-Denver and LA-Dallas playing game 5 Tuesday night. If the Clippers get their act together and win this series, they’ll play the winner of Utah-Denver in the second round–and since Utah holds a 3-1 series lead, it would marginally help the Clippers if Denver won by reducing the likelihood of LA entering the second round with a rest disadvantage. Check out the newest edition of Rooting Interests for more analysis of all the series going on around the NBA.

• Game Thread: After input from the community, we are hosting game threads in the comments of each game’s Game Preview post. That means that the comments below are your game thread for tonight’s crucial game 5–we’ve had lively threads lately with over 100 comments, so please either log in or sign up and join the conversation!

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Clippers – Mavericks Game 5 Preview: The Bounce Back
Lucas Hann