After taking back home court advantage from the Dallas Mavericks in an instant classic Game 4, the Clippers are back in Los Angeles for Game 5, hoping to take a 3-2 advantage in the series.

Game Information

Where: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California

When: 7:00 PM PT

How to Watch: TNT, Bally Sports SoCal, AM 570

Tickets: For great deals on Clippers tickets, check out Barry’s Tickets!

Projected Starting Lineups

Clippers: James Harden – Terance Mann – Paul George – Amir Coffey  – Ivica Zubac

Mavericks: Kyrie Irving – Luka Doncic – Derrick Jones Jr. – PJ Washington – Dereck Lively II

Injuries

Clippers: Kawhi Leonard Out (Knee)

Mavericks: Luka Doncic Probable (Knee), Tim Hardaway Jr. Out (Ankle), Daniel Gafford Questionable (Back), Olivier Maxence-Prosper Out (Ankle)

Notes

Kawhi’s Health: Before Game 4, when Lawrence Frank noted that Kawhi was out for the game, he said that the team wouldn’t put a timetable on Kawhi’s return and that the Clippers’ star wouldn’t be back until “he can make all the movements that he needs to make.” So there’s a good chance that Kawhi is not coming back during this series. And even if he does try to will himself back, is that actually the best thing for the team? The Clippers have found success without Kawhi on the court, thanks to the heroics of James Harden and Paul George. For any real championship run, the Clippers will need a healthy Kawhi Leonard. And so getting past the first round without him, giving him that time to heal, is probably their only realistic path.

The Mavs’ Next Chess Move: What cards do the Mavericks have up their sleeve? Our instincts tell us that surely a Luka master-class is coming, but if his knee continues to be an issue, maybe it’s not such a guarantee. And we’ve already seen one Kyrie explosion in game 4. But what else can Jason Kidd get out of this Dallas roster? The Mavs had been best going small, but in Game 4 James Harden repeatedly carved up the smaller lineup with short floaters that he’s been practicing, a shot which Jason Kidd appears comfortable to let him continue to take. So do they go big again? It hasn’t been working when they have, largely because neither Gafford nor Lively can pull Zubac away from the paint, and both have been doormats for Big Zu in the post. Right now the pressure is all on Dallas to adjust because they can’t just assume Kyrie will be able to produce another Steph Curry impression, and Luka is already doing all he can.

Luka’s Knee: Luka’s listed as probable for Game 5, which isn’t surprising, but his sprained knee clearly isn’t 100%. He’s been a step slow offensively, and he’s got limited lift on his usually terrifying step-back three ball, shooting just 26.5% from three in the series (and 17.4% in Games 3 and 4). That said, “struggling” Luka is still averaging 29-10-9 and is still incredibly dangerous inside 15 feet. The Clippers can’t let his health disarm them, but they’d also be fools to ignore it. The game plan should continue to be to attack him at the point-of-attack with playmakers who will keep him working hard on both ends.

Following Up Game 4: Game 4 was probably the most entertaining game of these 2024 playoffs. The shot-making was off the charts, the System was in full effect, and everyone had their turns shining. In the final minutes Kyrie Irving and Paul George each took the lead from one another with two of the most insanely difficult shots of the year. But despite coughing up the 31-point lead, the Clippers still have plenty of momentum after holding on to Game 4. And we know Paul George loves his Game 5’s, so we can expect a similar level of swagger. If he can be as decisive as he was in the first half of Game 4, if Harden can continue to pick his defenders wisely, and if the Clippers can stay the course with their mostly-effective Luka strategy, they have a good shot.

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Clippers vs. Mavs Game 5 Preview: Protecting Home Court
Erik Olsgaard

Two years after their elimination in the 2021 Western Conference Finals, the LA Clippers have made their way back to the NBA Playoffs. Two losses in the double-elimination Play-In Tournament in 2022, both without Kawhi Leonard and the latter without Paul George, led to a rare first round without the Clippers, who will appear in the playoffs for the 10th time in the last 12 years when their series against the Suns tips off Sunday evening. The franchise saw just six postseason appearances in its first 41 seasons, spanning time as the Buffalo Braves, San Diego Clippers, and LA Clippers (technically, with the innovation of the play-in tournament, they’ve made the postseason 11 of the last 12 years).

Even as the Clippers have entered their playoff era after decades at the bottom of the NBA standings, misfortunes have haunted them. I already noted that they didn’t get to play in the 2022 playoffs despite achieving a top-8 finish due to having their stars unavailable in the play-in tournament. Their 2021 Western Conference Finals run, the best in franchise history, saw Kawhi Leonard tear his ACL, forcing the team to play, and be eliminated, without their best player. Chris Paul and Blake Griffin were chronically hurt during the Lob City era’s playoff runs, with the team losing in the first round in back-to-back years in 2016 (without both stars) and 2017 (without Griffin). This year, despite their best caution, an unfortunate late-season knee injury to Paul George has once again left the Clippers facing an uphill playoff battle.

Series Schedule

Game 1: Sunday, 4/16 – 5:00pm PT – TNT and Bally Sports SoCal
Game 2: Tuesday, 4/18 – 7:00pm PT – TNT and Bally Sports SoCal
Game 3: Thursday, 4/20 – 7:30pm PT – NBATV and Bally Sports SoCal
Game 4: Saturday, 4/22 – 12:30pm PT – TNT and Bally Sports SoCal
Game 5: Tuesday, 4/25 – Time TBD – National TV TBD and Bally Sports SoCal
Game 6: Thursday, 4/27 – Time TBD – National TV TBD and Bally Sports SoCal
Game 7: Saturday, 4/29 – Time TBD – National TV TBD and Bally Sports SoCal

What’s that old saying about insult and injury? As if heading into the playoffs without Paul George wasn’t bad enough, the NBA’s schedulemakers went as far as they could to exacerbate the issue by making them play as many games as quickly as possible. The Suns-Clippers series is the only Western Conference first round series without an extra day off during the first four games (Grizzlies-Lakers and Kings-Warriors both have 2 extra days off during games 1-4), and their game 4 will tip off 7 hours before the Lakers’ game 3. It might not end up mattering, but the Clippers’ accelerated schedule could really cost them as they await a potential mid-series return from George.

Clippers fans will be happy to be reminded, after a year away from the playoffs, that local broadcasts continue to carry games through the first round of the NBA Playoffs, meaning that in-market viewers can still catch Brien Sieman and company a few more times this year.

The Big Picture

It’s hard to not be frustrated with how the Clippers’ 2022-23 campaign played out. It’s perhaps even more frustrating that an injured superstar might be what puts the final nail in LA’s coffin once again. After an ACL injury to Kawhi Leonard left him on the sidelines as the Clippers were eliminated each of the last two seasons, one hope balanced even the lowest moments of the last few months: get to the playoffs healthy, and a 2-time NBA Finals MVP would be on our side. As the playoffs get ready to begin, that much is true, but without his superstar sidekick, Clippers fans are faced with an all-too-familiar looming feeling.

Even if George’s absence is the elephant in the room all series, it’s worth recounting a tumultuous year that was far from on track when he went down against Oklahoma City a few weeks ago. The season was thrown in to disarray early, as a last-minute decision was made hours before opening night tip-off that Leonard was not ready to play a full game of starter’s minutes as he worked back from his ACL surgery. Remember when Kawhi was coming off the bench in the middle of the second quarter and playing second halves? It feels like a bad dream, as do the 19 games the Clippers played without him in the early weeks of the season, completely unsure if and when he’d be returning and what he’d look like when he did. It wasn’t just pessimism from fans, either: the uncertainty around their best player’s health had an effect on the morale and performance of Leonard’s teammates, too.

To Leonard’s credit, after missing 19 of the Clippers’ first 24 games, he played in 47 of the remaining 58, averaging 25 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists. One of the biggest subplots of the 2022-23 season: Kawhi Leonard was BACK back, playing at an All-NBA level, getting to his spots and ruthlessly punishing defenses from them, and winning basketball games. The Clippers were 33-19 with Kawhi in the lineup this season, a better winning percentage than the West’s 2 seed, Memphis (with the significant caveat that every team has to play–and lose–games while missing different combinations of their best players, so the Clippers with Kawhi vs other teams’ full seasons is not a simple or definitive comparison).

But around Leonard’s intermittent absences, the team struggled to find consistent, effective combinations. Incumbent starting point guard Reggie Jackson fell off a cliff after a hard fall in Portland in December, ultimately losing the gig during a 6-game slide before being dealt at the trade deadline. Marcus Morris, a fixture at power forward for the last four years, started 65 of the Clippers’ first 75 games before losing the job to Nico Batum and simultaneously dealing with an illness and back spasms that leave his role unclear heading into the playoffs. Terance Mann went from the fringe of the rotation to starting for a month before the All-Star Break in what was the best stretch of play the team had this year before heading back to the second unit down the stretch. Veteran forward Robert Covington signed a $22M extention just to find himself not in Ty Lue’s plans. The team played without a backup center for much of the year before acquiring Mason Plumlee at the trade deadline. Fellow deadline acquisition Eric Gordon is starting in place of the injured Paul George over longer-tenured teammates. Sophomore guard Bones Hyland is simultaneously the guard who has been most effective in George’s absence and appears most likely to not get minutes in this series. The year has been a mess of four-guard lineups, waning intensity levels, and misdiagnosed issues causing a new stumble every time it felt like the team was ready to find its stride. Even their pair of wins to close the season was troubling, as they barely found a way to survive contests against opponents who were trying to lose.

Despite it all, the Clippers are here. I don’t think we ever dreamed that avoiding the play-in tournament would be a triumph, but they managed it in the closing weeks of the season despite George’s injury. They play the games for a reason. They have talent, experience, and versatility, with a coach who is renowned for finding the right tweaks in best-of-7 playoff series. We’ve waited all year to see if the Clippers were going to find a way to put it all together and make something out of this season. This is their final, and most meaningful, chance to find the best version of themselves.

The Antagonist

In the other corner, we have a Phoenix Suns team that has hardly had a season together at all. Kevin Durant–you might have heard of him–was brought in at the trade deadline in a major blockbuster and has only played 8 games due to an ankle injury. The team’s leader in minutes played this year, Mikal Bridges, hasn’t been on the team for two months. Jae Crowder, Phoenix’s starting power forward the last two seasons, never played a game this year due to a breakdown over extension talks and his planned removal from the starting lineup in favor of Cameron Johnson, who wound up playing just 17 games in an injury-riddled half-season before being a part of the Durant trade. Devin Booker missed 29 games, including almost all of a 2-12 mid-season stretch where the team struggled to stay afloat while severely depleted. Phoenix’s 5th starter is Timberwolves reject Josh Okogie, who signed a one-year minimum contract last summer and was never expected to play this type of role (more on him later).

Phoenix has a very good top 4–Durant, Booker, Chris Paul, and DeAndre Ayton–and a lot of question marks surrounding them. Those 4 guys have only played 159 minutes together. They’ve won those minutes by a staggering 62 points (a rate of about 19 points per game), though the competition level is highly suspect and the small sample is highly unstable. The fit makes natural sense, and the high talent levels and complementary skillsets should allow for those guys to play intuitively without needing a major adjustment period. So far, it’s fair to say that they’ve aced a series of easy tests. They’re 8-0 when Durant plays, but five of those games came against lottery teams and two came against noncompetitive Denver Nuggets lineups that didn’t include Nikola Jokic. The best signature win on the Suns’ resume in the Durant era? A 7-point home win against Western Conference 8-seed Minnesota in Phoenix. When game 1 tips off on Sunday, the Clippers will immediately be the best opponent that the Suns’ new core 4 has faced.

Will that affect the Suns negatively early in the series? It’s hard to say. After all, the Clippers’ current presumed starting lineup without George or Morris has even fewer games together than the Suns’, and as mentioned above, LA’s rotation has been an inconsistent medley throughout the year. Still, no presence in the Clippers’ rotation is quite as unfamiliar or quite as imposing as Durant’s.

Here’s what you can count on from Phoenix: they’ll play at a very low pace, focusing on different combinations of on- and off-ball screens involving all 5 players on the floor to target different matchups for Booker and Durant. Even as his individual prowess has declined, Paul can still pull the strings as well as anyone, meaning efforts to double Durant or Booker are going to be punished when the ball finds his hands out of a trap and gimmicky pick-and-roll coverages will be read and exploited. The core 4 will play the bulk of the minutes, although it’s possible that head coach Monty Williams tries to protect his guys’ from wear and tear in an opening-round series where they are heavily favored, especially in the early games. None of those guys are particularly durable, and Clippers fans know all too well how hard it is to get Chris Paul through a playoff run healthy.

When they go to the bench, there are a number of different options, most of whom focus their contributions on one end of the floor. Cameron Payne is a speed demon ballhandler who has tortured LAC’s slower defenders in the past. Landry Shamet, Terrence Ross, Damion Lee, and T.J. Warren can all provide shooting on the wings. My guess is only one of those guys will be in Williams’ game 1 plans, but we could see others when Phoenix needs a spark as the series goes on. Torrey Craig will see significant minutes as a defensive option against Kawhi Leonard who has had an uncharacteristically stellar season shooting the basketball–a lot of possessions in this series might come down to the Clippers forcing him to prove that improvement is legit. Ish Wainwright provides energy and defense at multiple positions, but will likely only see spot minutes. Bismack Biyombo and Jock Landale each bring something a little different as the backup center (Biyombo is the better defender, while Landale has a more well-rounded offensive game to punish mismatches on switches), and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some centerless looks around Durant at times as well.

Sub-Plots

• Paul George: Look, if it feels like I’m mentioning this a lot, it’s because it’s pretty important. I have a really hard time imagining a scenario where the Clippers win 4 out of 7 games against this Suns team without Paul George. But do I think they can win 1 out of 2 or 2 out of 4 without him, and then close things out when he returns? Yeah, I can buy that. We’re going to be anxiously awaiting updates every day until either he’s back in the lineup or the Clippers are eliminated. It should be obvious that the sooner he returns, the more likely the Clippers are to advance–and that every win they can get without him helps extend the series and keep that hope alive.
• The Grift Zone: One way that the Clippers can win a game without Paul George? His natural replacement (even if he’s coming off the bench instead of starting in Paul’s spot), Norman Powell. Norm has hit the 20-point threshold in 20 of the 60 games he’s played in this season, and the Clippers are going to need his volume and efficiency to make up for the void left by George. But most importantly, they need his most unique skill on this roster: the grift. Norm creates more frivolous fouls against defenders than every other Clipper put together, and leads the Clippers’ rotation in free throws attempted per 36 minutes. The Suns allow the 3rd-most FTA/game in the NBA and themselves attempt the 4th-fewest. The Clippers will almost certainly shoot a lower FG% than the Suns in this series. Bombing threes can help offset that. Games that they win might also need double-digit advantages from the stripe. One more bonus: if the grift can impact Phoenix’s core 4 with foul trouble, it will level the talent disparity between the two teams. Keep an eye on Russell Westbrook’s offensive aggression here too, along with Terance Mann’s mix of downhill drives and ability to solicit illegal contact while defending.
• The 5th Guy: I said that I’d come back to Josh Okogie, and here we are: the 5th guy on the floor for Phoenix. The other 4 Suns starters make over $130 million–Okogie makes $1.8. Yet he’s earned this spot, first by being a fantastic defender this season, but also by mitigating some of the offensive damage by improving his shot from earlier in his career. Okogie shoots 33.5% from deep on the year, and that mark isn’t better in the corner (31.9%, with nearly half of his attempts coming from there). The Clippers will help liberally off of him in their attempt to contain Phoenix’s other guys. The ball will come out to Okogie. He won’t be shy about shooting when open, and he’s had multiple games this year where the shot has fallen, which will send the Clippers’ defense into a scramble. There have also been some really rough games, in which case we could see Monty Williams forced to pull his best defensive option against Kawhi Leonard. But Okogie’s impact isn’t going to be a one-dimensional, make-or-miss thing. The Clippers absolutely have to balance helping off of him with keeping track of him, because he will cut opportunistically and Chris Paul will find him for free dunks when he does. He’s also a fantastic offensive rebounding wing who will impact the series on the glass if the Clippers can’t locate and get a body on him when shots go up. Williams does have better shooting options for this role, but all of them would result in life being easier for Kawhi Leonard on the other end.

• The Finale: I don’t really know how to properly contextualize the Clippers’ rather embarrassing barely-win against Phoenix’s mostly-third-string lineup on the last day of the regular season, in what was a must-win game for LA and a throwaway game for the Suns. It feels worth addressing, but it doesn’t feel like the most meaningful data point. It was a day with weird energy, weird scenarios, weird delays, scoreboard-watching, and mixed motivations. I don’t want to pretend it didn’t happen, but I also don’t think it tells us anything about this series.
• Possessions: The Suns were a top-10 offensive rebounding team this season, but a bottom-10 defensive rebounding team. The Clippers were the opposite–top-10 on the defensive glass, bottom-10 on the offensive glass. How meaningful are those season-long stats when we consider that the Suns sample barely includes their new giant, good rebounding wing in Durant and the Clippers’ sample only includes half of a season of Kawhi Leonard and 20 games of one of the best rebounding guards in history in Russell Westbrook? Hard to say. But as I mentioned above, it seems obvious to me that the Suns will have a more efficient halfcourt offense in this series than the Clippers. LAC has to mitigate that damage, but they also have to win on the margins. Scoring in transition, getting more free throws, and making more threes obviously all help. But winning the possession volume battle via rebounding and turnovers will go a long way in leveling the halfcourt battle. The Clippers lost games early in the year where they outshot their opponents but took 20 fewer attempts because of turnovers and offensive rebounds. Winning games in this series is going to require flipping that script and exploiting those margins to take more shots than their opponents.
• Rotations: Playoff depth is somewhere between overrated and essential. On the one hand, a much higher share of playing time and touches goes to a shorter rotation comprised of teams’ best players, meaning quality role players on the bench have a smaller impact than in the regular season. On the other hand, lots of teams meet their demise because in-series adjustments call for them to need another ball-handler, or perimeter defender, or wing shooter, or rim protector, and they simply don’t have a competent guy in that mold on their bench. Playoff rotations are traditionally 8 or 9 men, but both of these teams have guys in spots 10, 11, and 12 who could be trusted by their coaches for situational use. We could see a bit of role player chess as this series goes on.

• KD and Russ: I gotta be honest, this isn’t a subplot that I care a ton about, but it’s going to be everywhere in the coverage of this series. Both players were gracious in their comments about each other as former teammates playing against each other for the first time in the playoffs. I think it’s fair to say that despite that positivity, Russell Westbrook will approach this matchup with a bit of an edge. Channeling that appropriately could mean we see the best version of him on defense, which the Clippers really need in this matchup, as well as bringing a tone-setting energy for the rest of the team to match. Getting caught up in it could end up being a distraction if he lets wanting to prove a point hurt his decision-making on offense. Either way, I don’t think this dynamic will be series-defining or as important as the national media will make it out to be.
• Matchups: Okogie guarding Kawhi is a no-brainer. Expect everything else to get weird. Do the Clippers put Batum on Ayton and Zu on Okogie so that they can comfortably switch screens and let Zu play free safety? How do they balance Kawhi’s defensive duties early in games with his offensive workload? Will he guard Booker or Durant down the stretch of games? Will Durant guard Kawhi down the stretch so that Monty can put another shooter on the floor? Can Chris Paul handle guarding Russell Westbrook’s athleticism and phsyicality at this stage in their careers? (And since that one is probably no, how will Monty hide CP3 on Gordon/Batum, and how aggressively will the Clippers pursue Chris on switches?) The Clippers will need large doses of Norman Powell on offense in this series, but he’s been a severe liability on defense this season, and they’ll need to find opportunities to hide him. Bones Hyland has been fantastic in recent weeks and even competed on defense, but how many units can you realistically get away with Bones and Norm playing together against this Suns attack? Marcus Morris typically does well against slower, stronger players, meaning that if he’s healthy and moving well he could be a switchable smallball 5 option off the bench instead of Plumlee, who has been a disaster on defense lately. Robert Covington can help a lot on the backline but struggles on-ball and could be miscast in a role where he’s asked to handle KD for a shift. Again, I imagine we’ll see a lot of different iterations of role player chess.
• Game 1: For some reason, I can’t shake the feeling that game 1 could decide this series. Obviously, every game is important in a best-of-7. But it will be 10 days since Phoenix’s starters’ last game, which was an exhibition against a Denver team with no starters playing. Their last game against a competitive opponent was April 2nd against Oklahoma City. As mentioned above, they haven’t been tested. They’ll be rusty. And they’ll probably only get better as the series goes on. If the Clippers steal game 1 on the road, they give themselves a desperately-needed margin for error as they await Paul George’s return. A little hope might also go a long way for a team that is overmatched on paper and aware of their underdog status. I think a game 1 win for the Clippers makes this series a coin flip, pending George’s health. A game 1 loss doesn’t end the series, but it makes the path forward very hard.

Clippers vs Suns Series Prediction: Suns in 6

Ultimately, I think there is a talent gulf in this series that would require the Clippers to be at their best and firing on all cylinders to overcome. But in addition to missing their second best player for an unknown portion of the series, this just doesn’t feel like a team that ended the season firing on all cylinders and knowing who they are and how to make each other better. As a group, they really aren’t that much more experienced and developed together than the Durant Suns. I do think that the Clippers will challenge Phoenix. Ty Lue will adjust–maybe even overadjust, at times–to take away what is working and make them win in different ways. I can see a team, even one as talented as Phoenix, stumbling as they figure out how to respond to that in real time considering how few meaningful, competitive reps they have together. And I think that the Clippers have potential avenues to winning this series, involving a mix of opportunism and luck early coupled with a timely return to the court for George. But overall, talent is king in the NBA, and the Suns have the kind of advantage in available star power that is rarely overcome over the course of a 7-game series.

Coverage

Check out the 213Hoops series prediction staff roundtable!
Hate read Robert Flom’s Q&A with a homertastic Suns blogger friend!
Subscribe to The Lob, The Jam, The Podcast on all platforms for:
1) A special episode of The Lob, The Jam, The Pod with Suns reporter Gerald Bourguet of PHNX Sports and Clippers reporter Tomer Azarly of ClutchPoints.
2) A series preview with 213Hoops’ Shapan Debnath, Robert Flom, and Cole Huff.
3) A game 1 preview with 213Hoops’ Shapan Debnath, Justin Wilson, and Jamal Christopher.
4) Postgame pods for every Clippers playoff game, and special off-day analysis podcasts with guests.
Subscribe to the Clips N’ Dip Podcast on all platforms for pre-series analysis and ongoing updates from Adam Auslund, Charles Mockler, and Will Updyke.
Listen in to my appearance on the PHNX Suns podcast previewing this series (I’m the second guest, Forbes NBA columnist Shane Young is the first half of the episode).
Take a look at Suns blogger Dave King’s series preview, including a Q&A with me on the Clippers’ strengths and weaknesses.

213Hoops is an independently owned and operated L.A. Clippers blog by Clippers fans, for Clippers fans. If you enjoy our content, please consider subscribing to our Patreon. Subscriptions start at $1 a month and support from readers like you goes a long way towards helping us keep 213Hoops sustainable, growing, and thriving.

2023 NBA Playoffs Series Preview: LA Clippers Face Phoenix Suns in First Round
Lucas Hann

We’re continuing our 213Hoops Exit Interview series, where we go player-by-player through the Clippers’ roster and break down how each player on the team performed relative to their pre-season expectations, and ponder their future with the team. Today, we’re taking a look at superstar forward Kawhi Leonard.

Basic Information

Height: 6’7″

Weight: 225 lbs

Position: SF

Age: 30

Years in NBA: 10

Key Stats: In 52 regular season appearances, played 34.1 minutes per game and averaged 24.8 points, 6.5 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 1.6 steals, and 2.0 turnovers on 51.2/39.8/88.5 shooting splits. In 11 playoff appearances, played 39.3 minutes pergame and averaged 30.3 points, 7.7 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 2.1 steals, and 2.2 turnovers on 57.3/39.3/88.0 shooting splits.

Contract Status: Leonard has a player option for $36,016,200 for the 2021-22 season. If he opts in, he can choose to either hit free agency next summer, where the Clippers would have his full bird rights and could offer him a 5-year deal worth $235M, or immediately sign a 4-year max extension immediately worth $181M. If he opts out, he could either sign a short-term contract that would pay him $39.2M for 2021-22 and allow him to pursue the aforementioned 5-year/$235M deal next summer, or take the long-term security of a 4-year, $176M contract. Here’s a chart (his maximum contract will be start at 35% of the salary cap in the year it begins, so these numbers are projections and could change by the time the official cap number comes out):

Expectations

Sometimes, this series is most boring when we get to the biggest names on the roster. It can be really instructive to reflect on the season and note how someone like Reggie Jackson or Luke Kennard exceeded or didn’t quite measure up to our preseason expectations for them. With Kawhi Leonard, it’s pretty clear what the expectations are: be one of the best players in the world, and be at your best in the biggest moments to lead the team to a championship. And frankly, there isn’t a ton of year-to-year suspense: yes, like every other player, Kawhi is going to have stinkers like his 2020 game 7 against Denver. But on the whole, I’m not exactly going into each season thinking “I hope Kawhi plays at an All-NBA level this year.” You already know he’s got it.

But we also know he isn’t perfect, and there were a few areas heading into the 2020-21 NBA season where I was watching for a little bit of improvement. While he had a career-best year passing the basketball in 2020, room for growth as a distributor remained as the focal point of LAC’s offense. A good three-point shooter throughout his career, he has never been elite from beyond the arc or taken a tremendous volume of shots from out there. A renowned defender who has at times certainly had a case for the top 1-on-1 shutdown perimeter defender in the world, he doesn’t always bring the intensity nightly on that end of the court. And most importantly, as an infamously quiet, private, and reserved guy, Kawhi doesn’t necessarily bring a traditional, vocal leadership style–and with the Clippers crumbling under pressure and lacking locker room chemistry in 2020, his personality was under the microscope.

Reality

Let’s get the obvious out of the way: Kawhi played at an All-NBA level this season. He started in the All-Star game, made the All-NBA first team, and put up all the normal great box score lines that you expect from a superstar. He also took things to another level in the playoffs, averaging over 30 points per game (he, Donovan Mitchell, and Kevin Durant are the only 3 guys to average 30+ in 10+ playoff games played this year), including a monster 45-point game on 18-25 shooting to stave off elimination in a road game 6 against the Dallas Mavericks. With all credit to Paul George for his amazing playoff run, Leonard was clearly the Clippers’ best player through the 11 postseason games he appeared in before a rough foul from Joe Ingles late in a blowout caused Kawhi to injure his knee. There was little doubt, up until the point that Ingles injured Leonard’s right ACL, that Kawhi was clearly playing at “best player on a championship team” level these playoffs.

To check in on the other objectives, Leonard’s distribution did in fact improve this season: he re-set last year’s career high in assists per game, improving from 4.9 to 5.2 (though in higher minutes, staying level at 5.5 per 36) while significantly reducing his turnovers from 2.6 to 2.0 per game (or 2.9 to 2.1 per 36). Shooting the ball from deep, he brought his three-point percentage up a couple of ticks from 37.8% to 39.8%, although he notably took them at a lower rate in 2021 than he did in 2020. Thankfully, there was no playoff drop-off–while he hit just 32.9% of his postseason threes in 2020, he hit 39.3% in 2021. And, because nobody is perfect, the consistent defensive impact throughout the regular season this year did not materialize. In fact, the Clippers struggled to post an average defensive efficiency for much of the season, and the issue was lackluster play from elite personnel rather than too many minutes going to subpar defenders. But in the playoffs, Leonard was absolutely fantastic on the defensive end of the floor, showing that he still can kick things into that gear as a two-way wrecking ball when needed.

The leadership front is where things get interesting. Overall, there’s no real direct evidence that Kawhi substantially changed his leadership style or became a more outgoing, talkative person this season. That’s more of a fundamental, underlying personality thing than something you can realistically ask him to adjust. But there are a few more subtle positive signs: reports of him being a little more involved in strategy sessions, providing a little more mentorship to teammates, and notably taking the initiative to play in back-to-backs again after declining to play them for load management the last two years after a major quadricep injury. It’s probable that the back-to-back decision had more to do with a reassessment of the likelihood that the strain of those games would increase reinjury likelihood than a decision to eschew that consideration, but it’s also probably true that regardless of the reasoning behind it, his more consistent presence in regular season lineups helped the team overall take the regular season a bit more seriously night-to-night. And whatever large or small role Kawhi played in it, there’s no doubt that the biggest improvement between the 2020 Clippers and 2021 Clippers were the vibes, confidence, and togetherness on this roster.

Future with Clippers

Right now, Kawhi’s future with the Clippers is completely up in the air and in his own hands–and while his ACL surgery, which could cost him much or all of the 2022 NBA season, could change his thought process on which contractual avenue he chooses this summer to ensure his long-term financial security, there probably isn’t any reason to think it changes the likelihood of him staying or leaving. The sensationalism in some places on the internet that the ambiguity around his knee injury could signify a Clipper misdiagnosis is just that: sensationalism. Leonard famously craves privacy around matters related to his health, so the team not being forthcoming with information is far more likely to be adhering to Kawhi’s own public disclosure policies than they are to have no clue what’s going on. And in terms of the timeline, the extreme rareness of a true parial ACL tear helps pull together a totally plausible timeline where Kawhi, his outside medical team, and the Clippers’ doctors worked together on possibilites for a non-surgical rehabilitative recovery before ultimately opting for surgery when he wasn’t making sufficient progress. In other words, there’s no compelling evidence to this point that the Clippers mismanaged Kawhi’s injury or that there is any negative feeling between the two parties regarding the injury–it’s simply not something that’s worth wasting time worrying about unless reliable information does come out at some future point that suggests it could be the case.

So, setting aside his injury for a moment, I’m still left feeling like Kawhi re-signing with the Clippers is overwhelmingly likely for all of the same reasons why he came to LAC in the first place: he wants to be in Southern California with his family near where he grew up, the Clippers have a newly-respectable organization dedicated to winning with him, and he’s paired with another superstar. It certainly helps that Paul George had a historically great playoff run of his own this year, carrying the Clippers to the Western Conference Finals after Leonard’s injury, and that George and the team won two WCF games without Kawhi once they got there. It’s hard to imagine that his supporting cast could have inspired any more confidence than they did after he went down. And while the team-building calculus definitely changes if Kawhi and the organization expect 2022 to not be a contention year (we just aren’t sure yet), they still have the right combination of pieces and owner wealth to build a championship-level roster around a fully healthy Kawhi in 2023.

Considering Kawhi’s ACL surgery again, there could be significant ramifications here for how he handles his contract with the team should he indeed choose to stay. If Kawhi wanted, I still think he has the leverage to demand that the Clippers give him a 1+1 max contract this summer, allowing him to opt out and become a free agent in the 2022 off-season, where LAC could give him a full 5-year max (the 3rd option in the chart at the top of the article). While it would sorta suck for the Clippers to only get 1 guaranteed year of Kawhi where he’s going to be injured, they’d absolutely still go for it: any financial flexibility afforded by his departure would be nowhere near worth losing the possibility of him playing for the Clippers long-term, and they’d have his full bird rights next summer and be able to offer 5 years and $234.9M where other suitors could only offer 4 years and $174.1M, giving the Clippers a major upper hand. For Kawhi, such an arrangement would lead to the most guaranteed money and give him more autonomy to manage his own recovery timeline, as the organization would surely refrain from pressuring him and cave to every demand if they still needed to convince him to re-sign in the 2022 off-season. And yes, teams will still line up to give Kawhi a max deal after ACL surgery–look no further than the recent free agency of Kevin Durant, who was older than Leonard and guaranteed to miss the entire first season of a new contract with a ruptured Achilles tendon, yet was hotly pursued by multiple teams for a 4-year max deal that he could opt out of after year 3.

Such a maneuver would only guarantee Leonard about $82 million this summer if something catastrophic were to happen in the coming year, but it’s overwhelmingly likely that he could sit out the entire season and still easily opt out and get the 5/235 deal from LAC or the 4/174 from any number of other suitors in the 2022 off-season. Plus, after a negative experience managing injury recovery with the San Antonio Spurs earlier in his career, Leonard might value not being married to an organization long-term, allowing him to be in the driver’s seat of his own knee recovery. If he only gives the Clippers 1 year, they’d feel the pressure all season long of making sure he’s happy and not feeling pressured, because they need him to still want to re-sign in the off-season. The other side of that coin is that he’s clearly talented to do whatever he wants anyway–he forced his way out of San Antonio despite being under contract–and taking the “opt in + 3+1 extension” route would mean guaranteeing himself $217M this summer instead of just $82M. Plus, depending on how long he plays and how willing he is to bet on himself, opting out of the final year of that extension would align perfectly for him to both hit free agency at the same time as Paul George (again, putting pressure on the Clippers to remain competitive to keep Leonard) and sign one last massive contract at the age of 33.

Overall, it’s probably still most likely that Kawhi will opt out of his contract, sign a 1+1 max to return to the Clippers, and then look to secure the massive 4+1 bird rights maximum with the team next summer. Even though there’s significant downside to such an arrangement for the team (they could potentially pay him $39M to not play for a year and then watch him walk next summer anyway), they’d be fools not to comply with his demands if they think he’s likely to take the Clippers’ 5-year max offer in 2022. That said, there’s still a possibility that post-injury, the guaranteed money this summer available via the opt-in + 3+1 extention path, plus the timing of a potential final maximum deal in 2025, make opting in and signing that extension an attractive option for Leonard. Certainly, it would be the better option for the Clippers, as they’d guarantee his presence on the team for the remainder of his prime.

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Clippers 2021 Exit Interview: Kawhi Leonard
Lucas Hann

Clippers All-NBA forward Kawhi Leonard will miss tonight’s game 5 against the Utah Jazz in Salt Lake City. According to a brief announcement from the team, Leonard suffered a right knee sprain and there is no timetable for his return. The Athletic’s Shams Charania reported that the team fears that Leonard may have suffered an ACL injury. The injury seemingly came when Leonard was intentionally fouled by Jazz guard Joe Ingles on a fastbreak late in the Clippers’ game 4 win.

Shams’ phrasing here is a bit interesting, to say the least. First of all, I’m not sure what to make of a report that they “fear” anything 36 hours after the fact. Then there’s the wording of “ACL injury,” which is incredibly vague. Naturally, the fear at the front of every reader’s mind is a torn ACL, which is one of the most major injuries a basketball player can suffer (perhaps second to a ruptured Achilles tendon) and can require a lengthy 9-month recovery time after surgery. But for that exact reason, the word “tear” is a crucial one, and we don’t see it in this tweet. An “ACL injury” includes a wide range of outcomes, with the aforementioned nightmare scenario on one end of the spectrum and relatively mild sprains on the other. An ACL sprain would still likely cost Leonard at least the remainder of this series against the Utah Jazz, but a potential return would be possible during the Western Conference Finals or NBA Finals if the Clippers somehow advance without him. A tear, on the other hand, would cost him at least a large portion of the 2021-22 NBA season. I don’t know when we can expect to know the exact details–Ramona Shelburne of ESPN reports that the Clippers are indeed waiting on additional imaging to confirm the severity of the injury:

Leonard has a player option for $36 million next season, but even with an injury, it makes little sense for him to opt in to that year. A player of his caliber will get a maximum salary contract in free agency, even in the worst-case scenario of a torn ACL that would cost him most or all of next season. The Brooklyn Nets similarly gave Kevin Durant a four-year maximum contract (with a player option in the final season) during the 2019 off-season despite knowing that Durant would miss the entire 2019-20 NBA season with a ruptured Achilles. One would imagine that with the Clippers seemingly having the momentum in this series before Leonard’s injury, there would be a willingness from all parties to more or less keep this roster together for next season.

For now, the Clippers still have at least 2 games left in their season, and while Leonard is their best player, Ty Lue and the rest of the roster will have a chance to make the franchise’s first Western Conference Finals… and perhaps buy time for Kawhi to make his return. The team was 8-7 without Leonard last year under Doc Rivers, and 11-9 without him this season–including 2 intentionally thrown games to end the regular season.

In these playoffs, Paul George-led lineups have had success: while the Clippers have won 363 minutes where George and Leonard shared the court by 6 points, they’ve won 81 minutes of George by himself by 31. Obviously, those minutes tend to coincide with opposing stars also resting, but George has overall thrived when taking charge of games while Kawhi rests. Look how Paul George’s playoff marks per 100 possessions increase when he embraces the burden of being aggressive offensively as a solo star:

George told reporters after Monday’s game 4 win, when asked about his high minutes in these playoffs, that he’d be willing to play all 48. After Durant played all 48 minutes in Brooklyn’s game 5 win over Milwaukee last night (in an all-time 49 point, 17 rebound, 10 assist performance with Kyrie Irving sidelined and James Harden playing hurt), the Clippers might need George for all 48 tonight. If not, he’ll definitely be in the 40s, and nothing short of a brilliant individual performance will be enough for a win.

In addition to George, the Clippers won’t be able to afford poor performances from their other core offensive players–that means simultaneous efficient outings for Reggie Jackson and Marcus Morris. Nicolas Batum will have to be brilliant on the defensive end of the court, and some threes won’t hurt either. And there will need to be a couple of “step-up” performances across the supporting cast–Patrick Beverley could add some shot-making to his wonderful defensive performances this series, Terance Mann and Luke Kennard have a chance for a playoff break-out game as supporting scorers, Ivica Zubac’s physicality around the rim could give the Clippers a boost on both ends, Rajon Rondo may return to the series as a high-IQ defender and extra ballhandler, and even DeMarcus Cousins may have a part to play as an instigator to frustrate Rudy Gobert.

213Hoops is an independently owned and operated L.A. Clippers blog by Clippers fans, for Clippers fans. If you enjoy our content, please consider subscribing to our Patreon. Subscriptions start at $1 a month and support from readers like you goes a long way towards helping us keep 213Hoops sustainable, growing, and thriving.

Kawhi Leonard out indefinitely, Clippers fear ACL injury
Lucas Hann

Before we get to the game play, a few things happened between our preview and this recap: First, Jaylen Brown went from questionable to available, and started for the Celtics. Second, Kawhi Leonard was a very late scratch. Per the Clippers, although Reggie Jackson started for Kawhi, he was supposed to be available. Then, towards the end of the quarter, it was announced that he was out due to back spasms. Now, on with the rest of the recap of the Clippers’ loss to the Celtics.

Summary

The first quarter was fairly high scoring, with the Celtics taking a 35-32 lead, and both teams shooting above 59% from the field. The Celtics were led by Brown, who hit six shots (two threes) in the first frame, finishing with 14 points. He was rivaled by Paul George, who was 5/6 (1/2 from three) and finished an and-one for twelve points. Neither team was particularly sharp on defense, but the Celtics certainly getting easier looks early. They probably should have been up by more if it were not for four turnovers.

Zubac was great on the glass early, with two offensive and defensive rebounds each in the first quarter and already had six by mid-way through the second quarter. Marcus Morris, Sr. was huge off the bench, finishing halftime with 10 points on 4/7 shooting. Morris and George were able to keep the Clippers in the game after the Celtics opened up an eight point cushion early in the second. George was aggressive and took advantage of smaller defenders (21 points on 8/12 shootings the half). The lead changed hands a few times but stayed close, with the Clippers going into halftime with a one point lead, 63-62.

Reggie Jackson also added 10 points and the Clippers as a whole continued to shoot very well (over 56% from the field and from three). The Celtics’ shooting slowed down a bit, but Kemba and Tatum joined Brown in double digits to lead their offensive production.

Just before the half, Morris went to the locker room early after getting elbowed in the head by Jaylen Brown while going up for a rebound. During the third quarter, it was announced that he in fact had a concussion, and would be out the rest of the game.

Out of the break, the Clippers continued to get great looks through ball movement. Patrick Beverley, specifically, drove into the lane after the Clippers got the Celtics scrambling and found three point shooters twice early in the third quarter. Unfortunately, the Celtics were able to keep up with the Clippers’ scoring and the third quarter ended just as it began: Clippers up by just one. Specifically, Kemba kept scoring and Payton Pritchard continued to hit opportunistic threes to keep the Celtics attached.

In the fourth, the Clippers let themselves get into a hole, including giving up a nine point run. They eventually responded with a run of their own, but the Celtics were able to hold the Clippers at arm’s length. The Clippers got within four (109-113) with about two minutes to go but the next two Clippers shots were rushed Paul George three pointers, neither of which were successful. Although George did hit a three with 11.5 seconds left, it was too late. The Clippers were playing the foul game and the Celtics were able to knock them down (including two clutch free throws by Daniel Theis), closing it out.

Notes

Luke Kennard Gets a Quick Look: Although Kawhi was sitting and Morris left the game early, Kennard did not get into the game until the last two minutes of the third quarter. I am a proponent of Luke getting back into the rotation, but he was put in a tough spot (three guard lineup) and did not look ready to go. In my view, this team has a higher ceiling with Kennard playing well because he is a versatile scorer who can take pressure off of Kawhi and George. He has not earned the playing time yet, but I would like to see him quality minutes so he can grow. After all, he barely played last season. He needs reps.

Reggie Jackson Starts: Reggie was extremely productive tonight, so he deserves a shout out. He had 25 points, 7 assists, and three rebounds (three turnovers) on 10/14 shooting from the field and 5/6 from three. He was -10 +/-, for what that’s worth. The bench overall was outplayed, so he might be suffering there because of that.

Drawing Fouls: The Clippers only shot nine free throws all night, which is not good enough, even with Kawhi out. Boston was 17/23 from the line, so their win margin was essentially found there. In fact, the Clippers made more field goals and three pointers. Part of this is due to the fact that the Clippers were taking longer shots and not attacking the basket, of course, but there needs to be more intentionality about getting to the line, especially from Lou and George.

That about does it for this recap of the Clippers’ loss to the Celtics. Stay tuned for Lucas’ player grades and a new episode of TLTJTP, and come back Thursday for a final contest against the Wizards.

Clippers vs. Celtics Recap: Clips Fall Short, 112-117
Kenneth Armstrong

In this episode of The Lob, The Jam, The Podcast, Dr. Shap and Robert Flom break down the Clippers’ emphatic win as they ease by Chicago Bulls and answer audience questions submitted on twitter. Follow @213Hoops on twitter for your chance to have a question answered in a future show!

Check out the podcast here! Be sure to rate and review us five stars on whatever platform you listen to us on, and give us feedback in the comments below!

Podcast: Clippers Ease by Bulls, and Twitter Questions
Shapan Debnath

Dr. Shap, Robert Flom, and Lucas Hann discuss the Clippers’ stumble to the Kings and some trends in the team’s performance without Patrick Beverley and Paul George, including potential changes to the starting lineup and rotation.

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Podcast: Clippers Stumble vs. Kings
Shapan Debnath

Dr. Shap and Robert Flom catch up as the Clippers trip in their homecoming game to the Boston Celtics following the news that Paul George could be sidelined going forward with a toe injury.

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Podcast: Celtics Trip Clippers
Shapan Debnath

Dr. Shap, Robert Flom, and Lucas Hann discuss the Clippers’ tough loss to the Brooklyn Nets, their win against the Cleveland Cavaliers, overall takeaways from the team’s feel good 4-2 road trip, and the upcoming matchup against the Boston Celtics on Friday.

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Podcast: Feel Good 4-2 Trip
Shapan Debnath

Dr. Shap, Lucas Hann, and Mike Jaglin as the Clippers ease by the Knicks, their upcoming marquee matchup with the Brooklyn Nets, and the recently released Agua Caliente Clippers of Ontario roster for the G-League bubble.

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Podcast: Clips Ease By Knicks
Shapan Debnath