In the early hours of the NBA’s free agency window, the Clippers learned that they would lose JaMychal Green as well as Montrezl Harrell as the two reached deals with the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers, respectively. Green is heading to Denver on a two-year deal worth $15M, while Harrell will join the Lakers for two years and $19M. Both were signed using the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, though Green did not receive the full exception while Harrell did.

The Clippers’ Needs After Losing Green and Harrell

The losses strike a blow to the Clippers’ front court depth, as each player averaged more than 20 minutes per game last season as the team’s primary backups at power forward and center. Currently, those holes remain unfilled. The team was able to reach new deals with starting power forward Marcus Morris and depth stretch 4 Patrick Patterson, which helped prevent their front court rotation from becoming fully catastrophic, but they have serious gaps to fill in the coming days in order to put together a respectable rotation next season. That work begins immediately–or, realistically, it’s already begun. Here’s a glance at LAC’s current projected–no, Joakim Noah is not on here, because I don’t think he’ll be on the roster on opening night–depth chart:

The gaps, of course, are obvious. While the Williams-Kennard backcourt duo isn’t a perfect fit and looks a bit questionable defensively, those are both good NBA players in their roles. But there’s no true backup small forward on the roster, Patrick Patterson is a relatively weak option at backup power forward, and there’s no established backup center on the roster.

That front court depth is going to need serious work, especially because we have to assume that Kawhi Leonard is going to sit out games for load management again this season. Paul George’s ability to slide over to small forward is certainly a big help here, as Luke Kennard is an overqualified backup shooting guard who can shoulder starts and additional minutes while Lou Williams and Patrick Beverley can easily go beyond sharing point guard minutes and play together for stretches. But Marcus Morris’ ability to play small forward, once considered a strength of the Clippers’ rotation, is significantly less useful without JaMychal Green, a similarly overqualified backup, on the roster and ready to absorb additional minutes. Patterson will play regularly this year (he played 13 minutes per game in 59 appearances last year), but you probably want to avoid rotations that involve him regularly breaking the 20-minute threshold.

At center, the loss of Green stings again. Presumably, the Clippers will add an established backup center behind Zubac, and that player will likely even be more reliable than Montrezl Harrell was in terms of being solid defensively and on the glass (replicating Harrell’s scoring won’t happen unless the team signs Serge Ibaka). But last year, Green stood by as a potential emergency or small ball option at center, and while Doc Rivers rarely opted to utilize him there, it was nice to have the option in case of an emergency. You can’t really go into an NBA season, particularly an accelerated schedule like teams will face in 2021, with only two guys who can play a position. Even if you avoid catastrophe, someone is going to roll and ankle and miss a couple of weeks at some point.

This season, the Clippers’ emergency center will emerge among Morris, Patterson, Kabengele, and Oturu. Obviously, giving Morris minutes at center just creates problems elsewhere, as someone needs to pick up his power forward minutes, but those obligations can be shifted up the lineup with Kawhi Leonard stepping in, and Paul George subsequently playing a bit more at small forward, and Luke Kennard and Lou Williams both increasing their minutes at shooting guard. Ideally, though, one of the team’s young big men will show enough to be seen as at least a viable option for regular season depth minutes.

The Clippers have to find rotation pieces at small forward and center, while also trying to limit the situations where they need Patterson, the team’s weakest second-unit player, as much as possible. Then, they need to ensure that they have the requisite injury insurance at important positions. With that in mind, here’s my ranking of the Clippers’ needs:

1. A backup center, ideally one who can play power forward alongside Ivica Zubac at times. The team needs a stable option who is serious about playing winning basketball so they can field competitive lineups when Zubac rests in the playoffs, something that wasn’t possible with Montrezl Harrell.
2. A defensive-minded backup forward who can play small forward and power forward. Just a small forward isn’t enough, as perimeter minutes on full-strength nights will be hard to come by with Beverley, Williams, George, Kennard, and Leonard. This guy needs to be able to slide over and offer a more defensive alternative to shooter Patrick Patterson at backup power forward, while also being able to play minutes at small forward when Leonard sits out. Ideally, someone who can defend multiple positions would be a good fit here as the second unit backcourt of Williams and Kennard might need to do some cross-matching.
3. A depth wing who can play spot minutes on load management nights or as an injury replacement. This player would be competing for minutes with Terance Mann and Amir Coffey (I’m assuming Jayden Scrubb is a project who we won’t see much of this year) and would essentially be the 6th wing, promoted to 5th on load management nights and potentially 4th when there are either two injuries or one injury that coincides with a load management night.
4. An established emergency point guard who can start games if Patrick Beverley gets injured. This is a bigger priority than fourth on this list, but the realistic avenues that LAC has for addressing it mean that they likely won’t be able to do so adequately. We know that Lou Williams isn’t going to start games at point guard for the Clippers. So, if Beverley gets hurt, will the team put Kennard there in a playmaking role? Are they ready to thrust sophomore second-round pick Terance Mann into the spotlight? Are they ready to do that if Beverley misses extended time or playoff games? You can’t go into a season with Patrick Beverley as your starting point guard and no plan B, so the Clippers either need to decide that Mann is plan B or figure out who is.
5. An established emergency center who can take over rotation minutes if Zubac or his backup go down. Realistically, this just can’t be a priority within the limitations of a 15-man roster. Sure, you’d like to be able to get a mid-level backup and a semi-proven third stringer like Willie Cauley-Stein, but with Kabengele and Oturu already taking up roster spots the Clippers are going to need to fill this hole with a combination of development and small ball.

The Clippers’ Tools to Replace Green and Harrell

With those needs in mind, let’s take a look at the Clippers’ updated cap sheet after Friday’s moves:

As it now stands, the team has about $10M in room underneath the hard cap and 13 players on the roster–though it’s important to note that the Clippers have not currently triggered the hard cap. That only happens if they decide to use the full non-taxpayer mid-level exception, worth $9,258,000. If they were so inclined, they could use the MLE on a 14th player (they have to carry at least 14 contracts on their roster) and call it a day–but that’s not going to happen. Noah and Patton, whose contracts are not guaranteed, are both centers, and neither are good enough to be the new backup or valued enough to be kept over Kabengele or Oturu. Additionally, Kabengele’s guaranteed contract and Oturu’s cheaper rookie minimum make keeping one of Noah or Patton a non-starter financially, even before considering the team’s recent investments to trade for Kabengele and Oturu on their respective draft days.

So, effectively, the team has $14,495,773 to spend underneath the hard cap, should they choose to trigger it. Should they use it, a massive $9.3M chunk of that would go towards signing a player with the MLE (note: the MLE can be split between multiple players, which would also give them savings as they filled out the roster since they’d have fewer spots to fill, but let’s assume LAC is going after big fish for now), leaving them $5,237,773 under the hard cap with 12 players under contract. From here, the front office has a choice. They must, at least, sign two more players to contracts costing at least the veteran’s minimum, $1,620,564 each. That leaves them with about $2M in wiggle room (remember, I’m using a projection for Marcus Morris’ starting salary, so even mild rounding on his reported deal could change these figures a bit), with which they have 4 main options:

1. Utilize the bi-annual exception in place of one of the minimum deals. By using the exception, the team can give a free agent a deal starting at up to $3,623,000 (if I’ve got Morris’ deal down to the dollar and their MLE target takes every dollar of that exception, they’d be $5,791 short of using the full exception and have to offer someone $3,617,209), potentially luring better players than they could on a minimum-salary deal. The bi-annual can run for two years with a 5% raise, so it can be fairly standard for teams to sign a veteran on a paycut and give them a player option in the second year in exchange for them signing at below market value. This scenario would be MLE + BAE + min (1 unused roster spot).
2. Utilize a trade exception. The Clippers have three trade exceptions, most notably one worth $3,567,720 from the Jerome Robinson trade. Trade exceptions are allowed to take back up to $100,000 extra, so the Clippers could use this TPE to add a player worth up to $3,667,720–though, as I noted above, if my calculations are correct they’ll only have $3,617,209 under the hard cap to work with. When comparing the TPE to the BAE, there are some important distinctions. While the BAE can only be used to sign a free agent to a new contract, the TPE can only be used to acquire an existing contract. That means trading for a player or claiming their deal off of waivers if they’ve been released by their prior team. The option of this conveniently-priced TPE lets the Clippers explore trading for a deal in the $3.6M range instead of only searching for a free agent to sign to a deal at that price. The TPE could be used to add a player in a sign-and-trade deal. Where the BAE, as noted above, can only offer a 2-year deal, players can receive up to 4 years if they are signed-and-traded by their previous team. Long deals at this price point are rather rare, as you’re normally either talking about a player who hopes to hit the market again soon and get a raise, or an unproven player who a team wouldn’t want to invest multiple guaranteed years of above-minimum salary into. However, the option is there. This scenario would be MLE + TPE + min (1 unused roster spot).
3. Sign a 15th player to another minimum deal. Remember, the Clippers are only required by the league to carry 14 players. But in a shortened season, with load management likely and several developing projects on the roster, the team might prefer to get more veteran bodies on the bench. This scenario would be MLE + min + min + min (full roster).
4. Add salary in a trade. Technically, the Clippers could take on up to $2M extra in salary in a trade and still fit a 14-man roster under the hard cap. One hypothetical deal that illustrates this point would be swapping Lou Williams for newly-acquired New Orleans Pelican George Hill, who is likely to be on the move again. Hill makes $9,590,602, which is comparable to Williams’ $8,000,000 but an important difference when you’re dealing with the margins the Clippers are here. They could absorb that difference if they passed on using the BAE and adding a 15th player. This scenario would be MLE + min + min (1 unused roster spot).

The Clippers’ Targets To Fill Out The Roster

Look, we’re early enough in free agency that there is still an incredibly wide range of potential outcomes. Dozens of potential trades, particularly involving Patrick Beverley and Lou Williams, could shift the margins of the Clippers’ finances or their roster needs. Keep an eye not only on Hill, mentioned above, but Houston’s P.J. Tucker, who makes $30k less than Williams and would shift the Clippers’ free agency focus away from another bench forward and place an emphasis on adding a backup point guard. Maybe they get Tucker and Ibaka, and use the BAE on a point guard like D.J. Augustin! Maybe they get Tucker, use the MLE on a point guard like Kris Dunn, and use the BAE on a center like Nerlens Noel! They could split the MLE Anything is possible.

For now, though, let’s stick with what we know, and map on the team’s aforementioned needs, discussed in part 1, with their tools, discussed in part 2, and look at some targets:

• Mid-Level Exception Backup Centers: Serge Ibaka, who I profiled a few weeks ago, would be the Clippers’ best-case scenario at this point and a huge upgrade over Harrell. He isn’t really a PF/C but his shooting at least makes it viable offensively against giant opposing lineups that allow Ibaka and Zubac to play together defensively. Tristan Thompson would also be a great addition, a versatile defensive big who famously allowed Clippers coach Ty Lue’s Cavaliers to switch screens against Steph Curry in the NBA Finals. He doesn’t have the offensive game that Ibaka does to replace Harrell’s scoring, and he wouldn’t really be able to play with Zubac, but he’d still be a big help.
  
  Some other centers provide intriguing fallback options, but probably aren’t worth the full mid-level. Only using part of the mid-level on a backup center would help the Clippers in the “wiggle room” category to either use the BAE and/or TPE, add salary in a trade, or sign a 15th player. For example, the Nuggets signed JaMychal Green to approximately $7.5M using the MLE, saving about $1.8M in hard cap wiggle room. If you drive the split down far enough, the team could potentially use that money on another free agent–like $4.6M for a center and $4.6M for a wing or guard.
  
  Lower-cost center targets could include Aron Baynes, Marc Gasol, Nerlens Noel, Willie Cauley-Stein, Frank Kaminsky, Bismack Biyombo, Hassan Whiteside, and Alex Len.

• Bi-Annual Exception Defensive Forwards: If the Clippers use their biggest tool to address the center position, look for them to use their second-biggest tool to find a backup small forward behind Kawhi–but remember, this player would ideally provide depth at both forward positions to limit the team’s reliance on Patrick Patterson, while bringing the ability to guard multiple positions to cover for Williams and Kennard on the second unit. That’s a tall ask for a $3.6M player! Fortunately, there are a few guys on the market.
  
  Former Clipper Moe Harkless would make an obvious fit, a natural small forward who started at power forward for the Clippers for much of last season but frequently cross-matched defensively to tackle tricky guard assignments. He’s worth more than the bi-annual but if he slips through the cracks of an unpredictable free agency window, he’d be a great option.
  
  Solomon Hill, fresh off of playing spot minutes in the playoffs for the Miami Heat, makes sense as a utility defender who can play at both forward positions–though I think he’s more of a defensive body for other forwards, not necessarily someone to switch onto guards. A career 34% shooter from deep, he made 38% on decent volume in Memphis last year before being traded to Miami and buried on the bench. If that’s repeatable–a big if–he’d be a steal as a BAE or minimum guy.
  
  Rondae Hollis-Jefferson rounds out the three main candidates here. Essentially a non-factor offensively, Rondae doesn’t even attempt threes where Hill and Harkless will at least put up open shots with inconsistent results. But he had a truly stellar year defensively in Toronto guarding 1-4, and his lack of shooting wouldn’t be fatal if the Clippers sign a stretch 5 to put on the second unit with Williams, Kennard, and Patterson.

• Minimum Salary Depth Wings: Let’s assume that the Clippers use the full MLE on a center and the full BAE on one of the aforementioned forwards for their second unit. They’d have money for one spot left at the league minimum, and while they could go a few different ways with it they might choose to add another wing player to provide additional competition and depth behind Kawhi Leonard’s load management regimen.
  
  Austin Rivers is a compelling option who is more of a 2/1 than a 2/3, but could potentially play in three-guard lineups as well as take on emergency point guard duties. However, he’d likely want more of a guaranteed role than LAC can offer. Glenn Robinson III should be an above-minimum player, though he might be an option if the Clippers do something like split the MLE between a C and forward and have the BAE to use here.
  
  Courtney Lee, Kent Bazemore, Marco Belinelli, and Evan Turner could all help one way or another in a depth role, but all have flaws of their own. Turner in particular could also garner consideration for emergency point guard duties. Kyle Korver will turn 40 during the regular season, but there’s no doubt the guy can hit an open three.
  
  Sterling Brown, DeAndre’ Bembry, Shaquille Harrison, and Deonte Burton were all eligible for restricted free agency but didn’t get qualifying offers from their teams and could give the Clippers a chance to try and find a diamond in the rough with a player in their mid-20s who didn’t break out with their first NBA team.

• Minimum Salary Depth Point Guards: If we take the scenario from the last group, and assume the Clippers have used their full MLE on a center and full BAE on a backup forward, they could look at a minimum-salary emergency point guard instead of a depth wing. This likely comes down to the team’s internal assessment of Terance Mann: if they think he’s progressed enough as a PG, he’ll fill this role; if not, he and Coffey will fill the wing depth role and the team will find a free agent for this slot.
  
  Players like D.J. Augustin, Rajon Rondo, Kris Dunn, and Jeff Teague are all above-minimum guys who need guaranteed roles, so I’d only expect them to come into play if the Clippers make a trade like the Williams-Tucker swap I suggested above, which would open both a role and resources for this spot. Incumbent Clippers depth point guard Reggie Jackson likely thinks of himself as a guaranteed role, above-minimum guy as well. I’d place Brad Wanamaker in this group as well, but it’s possible he falls through the cracks, in which case he’d be a really nice addition.
  
  As long as it remains a depth role at the minimum, several of the aforementioned wings could contribute here. Rivers, Turner, and Harrison have all played point guard at times in their careers. Michael Carter-Williams isn’t really much of a point guard, but he could help lineups defensively. Typical offensive point guards like Shabazz Napier Raul Neto make more sense as Beverley fill-ins, but less in second-unit combinations with Williams or Kennard. Players like Emmanuel Mudiay and Elfrid Payton are still riding their statuses as top-10 picks, and while either would be fine emergency additions they’d likely look for actual roles in attempts to really prove they belong in the league.

213Hoops is an independently owned and operated L.A. Clippers blog by Clippers fans, for Clippers fans. If you enjoy our content, please consider subscribing to our Patreon. Subscriptions start at $1 a month and support from readers like you goes a long way towards helping us keep 213Hoops sustainable, growing, and thriving.

Clippers Lose Green, Harrell As Free Agency Opens
Lucas Hann

According to The Athletic’s Shams Charania, the Denver Nuggets will sign Clippers forward JaMychal Green to a two-year, $15 million deal when the free agency moratorium lifts. The second year of the deal will be a player option.

Clippers beat writer Andrew Greif noted that while LAC tried to re-sign Green, the Nuggets were aggressive in their pursuit. Green declined a $5M player option to enter free agency.

Green was very good during his two seasons in Los Angeles, making strong contributions in the 2019 and 2020 NBA Playoffs, and should have been a priority for the Clippers during this free agency window. However, with Marcus Morris requiring a rather hefty contract after being chased by other suitors, the Clippers left themselves without much of a way to keep Green while also using the full non-taxpayer mid-level exception, worth $9.3M, to add a free agent. It’s a real shame for the team to lose him, particularly because it felt like he didn’t get a fair shake. His quality of play drastically exceeded the role and minutes that Doc Rivers gave him last season, whether it was coming off of the bench behind Moe Harkless and Patrick Patterson before the Morris acquisition or seeing scarce playoff minutes despite the Clippers desperately needing shot-making.

• Clippers vs Raptors Preview: A Tough Test in Toronto
• Clippers vs Wizards Preview: Getting the Easy Win
• Clippers vs Hornets Preview: Back Home, Win Streak Loading?
• Clippers vs Pistons Preview: Closing out the Road Trip
• Clippers vs Nets Preview: Clips Need to Get This One

While the Clippers’ MLE target is unclear, the logical choice would be Serge Ibaka, who I described as a dream target for the Clippers in a writeup last month. While Serge is no longer the shot-blocking phenom from his time in Oklahoma City, he’s become an extremely skilled offensive player who can score from all over the court while still possessing stable defensive abilities due to his size and experience. He’s also a beloved teammate and locker room leader, and one of Kawhi Leonard’s best friends–something that might help the Clippers both build better chemistry next season and re-sign Leonard in free agency next summer.

Whether the MLE goes to Ibaka or a different target, the Clippers would be left with just over 5 million in wiggle room under the hard cap and three open roster spots, at least two of which would need to be filled. They’d have some options there–3 veteran’s minimum deals would give them maximum depth (in terms of bodies, not necessarily quality) and fit under the hard cap. They could also utilize either the bi-annual exception ($3.6M, used on a free agent) or their $3.6M trade exception (used to acquire a player via trade or waiver claim) to add another above-minimum free agent, and then use just one minimum contract to pick up a 14th player and leave the last spot open.

Any trade would either increase or decrease the team’s flexibility based on the difference in salary between incoming and outgoing players, though the margin of what the Clippers can take on are slim. George Hill, for example, makes $1.6M more than Lou Williams–so the Clippers could make that deal but it would require foregoing the opportunity to use the BAE and TPE, and leave them with enough space for just two minimum deals to get the roster to 14.

Nuggets Sign JaMychal Green to 2-Year, $15M Deal
Lucas Hann

According to The Athletic’s Shams Chrania, Clippers forward JaMychal Green will decline his player option for $5M next season and enter unrestricted free agency.

We knew this was a possibility for Green, whose $5M salary was both a bit of a bargain for the Clippers last season and less than his projected impact for next year. However, the suppressed free agency market and number of quality depth big men available put the option in play for Green.

Until we have more information regarding Green’s free agency, it’s hard to make a firm prediction regarding what his contract will look like. I do still feel like the Clippers should be in the driver’s seat to keep him, as they have his bird rights and he’s seemed to enjoy his time in LA. But competitive offers could force LAC to increase Green’s offer to the 3-year, $24M range–still a good price considering the impact he makes as a 3-and-D PF/C who can space the floor, switch defensively, and rebound well. Alternatively, he could return at a price point closer to or even slightly lower than $5M if interest from other teams is lower. Adding multiple years of guaranteed money can sometimes be worth it for players even if their annual salary doesn’t get the big hike they were looking for.

Green has shown a willingness to work with the Clippers in the past; last year, there were no reports indicating that he was overly active in seeking a deal from another team while he waited for the Clippers to resolve their big-ticket free agency items. Then, he re-signed for the room exception at the end of free agency when that was the only tool LAC had left, even though he was likely worth more.

The Clippers’ big questions when tomorrow’s free agency window opens are with Marcus Morris, Montrezl Harrell, Green, and the mid-level exception.

If one of Morris or Harrell leave and the Clippers can re-sign the other and Green for a combined ~18M or less, they should have access to the $9.3M non-taxpayer mid-level exception to add an outside free agent. If they keep all three, or have to splurge above that price point, they’ll likely end up with just the $5.7M taxpayer mid-level exception.

213Hoops is an independently owned and operated L.A. Clippers blog by Clippers fans, for Clippers fans. If you enjoy our content, please consider subscribing to our Patreon. Subscriptions start at $1 a month and support from readers like you goes a long way towards helping us keep 213Hoops sustainable, growing, and thriving.

NBA Free Agency: Clippers’ JaMychal Green to Decline Option
Lucas Hann

You’ve probably seen the meme where Spider-Man points at himself. If I could pick one picture to encapsulate where the Clippers currently stand, that’s my choice. Following a brutal game seven loss to the Denver Nuggets, the Los Angeles Clippers are in a position where they can only blame themselves.

But, first and foremost, I want to acknowledge Michael Malone and the rest of the Denver Nuggets players and coaching staff. Coming back from a 3-1 deficit twice in the same postseason is a feat accomplished by no one in NBA history. All credit goes to Denver, but we have to remember that Denver can’t achieve this if L.A. had closed them out earlier in the series.

Game 5

After the Clippers defeated the Nuggets 96-85 in game four, both teams began the first quarter of game five pretty tight. In the second quarter, the Clippers started to pull away. Lou Williams made baskets inside the arc and Landry Shamet and JaMychal Green hit some key triples off the bench to provide the starters with critical help.

An and-1 from Marcus Morris Sr. saw the lead extend to 56-40, which would be the largest lead held by the Clippers. L.A. went into the second half with a twelve-point cushion, but the Nuggets made the necessary adjustments to make a run. Denver didn’t take over right away, but following crucial baskets from Paul Millsap, who arguably turned in his best game of the bubble, Denver set themselves up to make an all-or-nothing run in the fourth.

Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray needed to step up on the scoring end, and needless to say, they rose to the occasion. The one-two game between Jokic and Murray clicked at the right time, and Denver flipped the score to take a six-point lead with five minutes remaining. Kawhi Leonard hit some big threes and earned trips to the free-throw line to slow the game down, but the game fell in the hands of Michael Porter Jr., who drilled the biggest shot of the game. Denver outscored L.A. 38-25 in the final 12 minutes.

The Clippers sat on a 16-point lead but watched it slowly evaporate as Denver outplayed them on both ends of the game to force game six.

Game 6

This game gave the Clippers a second chance of closing the series out, and the Clippers started the first half strong yet again. A dominant 16-2 stretch to end the second quarter was exactly what the doctor ordered, but the Clippers were too stubborn to take the medication. Despite Paul George and Leonard taking over the end of the second and setting themselves up to finish Denver off, they allowed Denver to take advantage of their poor tactics on both ends of the court.

After scoring 34 points in the first quarter, the Clippers managed just 35 points in the entire second half. Sixteen of those came in the third quarter when Denver made their huge run to trail by just two to enter the fourth. George took responsibility for 10 of those points, but he didn’t receive any help and Denver hunted the Montrezl Harrell and Lou Williams mismatches to burn the Clippers on defense.

A similar theme from game five appears in this one: if you fail to keep your foot on the pedal, you’ll be passed up. You can’t offer a team like Denver the chance to see light, otherwise, they’ll climb out of the dark hole and bury you instead. Once Denver regained momentum, they grasped it with both hands and rode it to victory.

George and Leonard couldn’t carry the load themselves, whereas Jokic and Murray, though doing their jobs efficiently, were supported by Monte Morris, Gary Harris, and others who stepped up because of the momentum switch. The Clippers ended up being the team who lost by double-digits and did the one thing they couldn’t afford to do: go to game seven.

The uncertainty of a game with colossal implications is one the Clippers couldn’t afford to participate in, yet their own mishaps led them tumbling into a game where momentum didn’t favor them.

Game 7

Just like the last two games, both teams kept the score tight, except Denver didn’t allow L.A. to go on a run to end the first half. The Clippers maintained the edge, but the storyline of blowing a significant lead wouldn’t materialize on post-game headlines.

However, the Clippers’ inability to score in the second half did. L.A. only managed 33 points in the second half of a win-or-go-home game. Whichever way you put it, that’s inexcusable. Fifteen of those came in the fourth quarter, where the Clippers showed zero fight; they were ready to go home. It was a relatively low-scoring quarter, but Murray and Jokic opened the floodgates just enough to drown their desiccated opponents.

Obviously, it didn’t do the Clippers any favors that their two stars shot a combined 10-38 from the floor. That’s 26% in a semifinal closeout game; there’s no justifying that type of performance. The two notably scored zero points in the fourth quarter. It’s also why L.A. couldn’t let game seven occur. You never know if the worst-case scenario for your team would happen in the biggest game of the season, but you don’t have to ponder those thoughts if you closed out responsibly.

And if Harrell is your leading scorer after 48 minutes, something went drastically wrong. Denver didn’t completely suffocate L.A. on defense either, because L.A. had open looks. But, you saw George clanking an open corner three off the side of the backboard, which made up one of his nine missed triples from the game. Again, you need to avoid game seven if you can prevent it.

Other Factors

In-game decisions made by Doc Rivers played a massive role in L.A’s downfall as well. Giving Harrell numerous minutes when Ivica Zubac and Green were much better players/matchups definitely cost L.A. points. Harrell’s inability to be a defender at any decent level saw Jokic and company torch Harrell. This stat certainly supports the eye test:

Montrezl Harrell and Nikola Jokic went head-to-head for 35 minutes over the final three games of this series. The Los Angeles Clippers were outscored by 47 points in those minutes.

— Justin Russo (@FlyByKnite) September 16, 2020

Patrick Beverley fouling out early in game six played a large part, too, as L.A. lost his versatility on both ends and needed to play Williams more often. Beverley quietly turned in arguably the best performance from a Clipper in game seven, but it’s going to be swept under the rug now due to the loss.

Landry Shamet quietly disappeared and couldn’t help offensively either. Shamet’s best asset couldn’t be weaponized efficiently against Denver, as he shot 4-18 (22%) from deep in the series. He played limited minutes in game seven due to injury, but it’s hard to imagine him making a positive impact anyway.

Mike Malone, to put simply, out-coached his counterpart. When Harrell and Williams shared the floor, Denver attacked L.A. with pick-and-rolls, resulting in open looks. Because Lou Williams struggled often and Beverley dealt with foul trouble, Reggie Jackson saw minutes too, which certainly didn’t help the defense any. If Leonard and George couldn’t score, Rivers didn’t have a reliable third option, yet he kept insisting that Harrell and Williams would solve those issues. It might’ve worked in the regular season, but the bench duo was unsurprisingly exposed when it mattered most.

The Clippers are now 0-8 all-time when they’re about to clinch a conference finals berth, fittingly ranking them first in that category, per Elias Sports. Just like their blown 3-1 lead in 2015, the blame falls on the entire Los Angeles Clippers organization. With the expectations coming into the season, the lasting effects of this loss could be incalculable.

213Hoops is an independently owned and operated L.A. Clippers blog by Clippers fans, for Clippers fans. If you enjoy our content, please consider subscribing to our Patreon. Subscriptions start at $1 a month and support from readers like you goes a long way towards helping us keep 213Hoops sustainable, growing, and thriving.

The Los Angeles Clippers Can Only Blame Themselves
Sanjesh Singh

Though the Los Angeles Clippers have procured a dominant 3-1 series lead over the Denver Nuggets (despite the historical jest associated with that record), the Montrezl Harrell dilemma needs to be sorted out fast – and soon. Simply put, Harrell needs to produce more than points with his minutes.

As the season’s Sixth Man of the Year, Harrell deservedly played 27.8 minutes a game during the regular season. Those minutes led to Harrell averaging 18.6 points per game, a stat which holds a weighty load of determining who takes home an award that rewards exceptional play off the bench.

However, during the regular season, Harrell accomplished much more on the court than merely putting the ball in the hoop. He averaged career-high numbers in offensive and defensive rebounds per game (7.1 total) while providing interior defense with 1.1 blocks per game and boasting a defensive field goal difference percentage of -9.9 on shots less than six feet from the rim.

Through 10 playoff games, Harrell’s production has plummeted to questionable numbers that make you ponder whether he should play at all. In 18.6 minutes a game in Orlando, Harrell is averaging 10.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, 0.4 assists and 0.6 blocks on 57.4% shooting (6.1 attempts). Unsurprisingly, those figures are all inferior to his regular-season numbers.

Before we dive into the film, it’s imperative to outline the external factors and challenges Harrell is facing. Following the death of his grandmother and the countless emotions that come with a significant loss, Harrell’s feet never got wet with any warm-ups or scrimmages. Harrell re-entered the bubble and dove straight into the deep end, with his Orlando debut coming against Dallas in game one of the playoffs. Whereas most players shed their rust in the 11 scrimmage and seeding games, Harrell encountered the challenge of finding his form in a playoff atmosphere – and that challenge is burdening him.

Let’s start by acknowledging Harrell’s scoring ability, which has been his best asset to the Clippers so far. Harrell is going to score in the paint: that’s a given. The downside in the playoffs, however, is that a decline in efficiency is hurting his overall effectiveness.

Against Dallas, these issues weren’t as prominent; Harrell attempted 5.2 shots a game, converting on 61.3% of them. With the Mavericks high-powered offense, you knew scoring wouldn’t be an issue. Despite the Clippers possessing one of the better defenses in the league, they needed players not named Kawhi Leonard or Paul George to score. Still fresh to the bubble, Harrell provided L.A. with an option down low.

In this play, some of Harrell’s distinguished strengths shine. The Clippers clear out the interior for George to penetrate, with Harrell roaming the baseline as you often see with L.A.’s big men as one of George, Leonard or Lou Williams attacks the paint.

Tim Hardaway Jr. forces George to drive left, allowing Luka Doncic to collapse for a double-team. George’s only option is to split the double and get the ball to Harrell. Harrell bobbles the pass, but keeps it inbound and goes to work. Hardaway Jr. and Doncic collapse on Harrell, but Harrell utilizes a strong two-handed dribble to establish authority. He uses his body to create space and goes up strong for the finish.

Against Denver, Harrell’s baskets have a similar theme – he will attack the paint using brute force and score over anyone. It doesn’t matter if there are two or more bodies in his way: he’s fearless in the paint, as the play above illustrates.

But the Nuggets pose a more resilient, tougher defensive threat in the frontcourt than Dallas did, and that’s causing more problems for Harrell offensively. He’s attempted 7.5 shots per game in this series, but is finishing just 53.3% of those looks. Harrell’s shooting in game one and two is why that percentage is anchored down, because he’s 10-13 overall in the last two games.

In spite of that, his points per shot attempt (PSA) in this series sits at 118.4, according to Cleaning the Glass. Including the six games against Dallas, Harrell’s PSA is at 116.4, ranking in the 38th percentile. Considering his figure against Denver is just two points higher, it’s not a notable rise. For comparison’s sake, in two regular-season games against Denver this season, Harrell attained a PSA of 146.4. His shooting numbers may captivate on paper, but there’s plenty of room to progress.

Transitioning to Harrell’s rebounding numbers, it’s not astonishing that they’ve declined in the playoffs. During the regular season, he ranked fifth on the team in defensive rebounding percentage (min. 20 games played). With a DRB% of 16.3, Harrell trailed Ivica Zubac, JaMychal Green, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard in that category. You can add Joakim Noah and Johnathan Motley, but they didn’t have larger enough sample sizes to qualify.

If it wasn’t for Harrell’s offensive rebounding, his overall rebounding numbers would fall further. In the regular season, Harrell’s ORB% was 9.9, a fairly stout number. In the playoffs, it has plunged to 4.9%. It’s yet another glaring example of how Harrell has failed to regain his regular-season form.

In this clip, the Clippers clear out on the left so Leonard can work on an iso. Gary Harris’ stance propels Leonard to drive with his left. Paul Millsap adds a brilliant contest, leading to a rushed attempt from Leonard. What bothers me is that Harrell watches Nikola Jokic pull down the rebound when he easily could’ve gone to contest it. You’re down ten with seven minutes remaining in the fourth – make a play! The odds are against Harrell, but the lack of effort was very perceptible.

To highlight two rebounding stats, Harrell’s fgDR% is 9.8, placing him in the sixth percentile, according to Cleaning the Glass. His fgOR% is 4.5, which sorts him into the 29th percentile. To compare, he ranked in the 73rd percentile for fgOR% and 19th percentile for fgDR% in the regular season, per Cleaning the Glass. Already a bad defensive rebounder, he’s been truly absent in that facet during the postseason.

Let’s shift to the area of Harrell’s most consequential struggles – defense. I have watched this clip on an infinite loop, and I have no idea what Harrell is doing. Harrell falls asleep mid-pick and roll, allowing Mason Plumlee to walk to the rim while he stands on the perimeter guarding oxygen. L.A. is fortunate that the play resulted in a missed corner three because that should’ve been an easy two points.

Even when the rebound comes to Harrell, he smacks the ball off Reggie Jackson’s face as it rolls out of bounds under his legs. That wouldn’t be the only thing to roll right past him in the clip.

Jokic will positively affect the game on paper and on the court. But when you give the “Joker” a quality look like this, maybe we need to reevaluate who the real joker is.

Harrell can’t shoulder all the blame here, but a portion of it falls on him. The point of a pick-and-roll is a switch to hunt a mismatch. Jackson goes over the screen, but he needs to let the switch materialize. Harrell doesn’t need to drop here. Monte Morris is angling towards the sideline; Harrell can pursue Jokic on the perimeter.

It doesn’t help that the Clippers lose this battle 9 times out of 10, barring a missed shot. Jackson and Harrell have struggled mightily on defense, and though Jackson’s minutes have decreased, Harrell is heading in a similar direction.

This is poor blitz defense on a high pick-and-roll between Jamal Murray and Jokic. Leonard and Green invite Murray to split them with a pass. But Harrell needs to be held accountable for not coming to help. As the low man, Harrell needs to slide to the rim the moment Jokic catches the ball; he has to force Jokic to kick it out, rather than letting him walk in for a dunk.

Another interesting stat brings us back to a number I emphasized earlier – Harrell’s DIFF% on defense. On shots less than six feet from the rim, Harrell didn’t allow effortless baskets during the regular season. Harrell’s DIFF% of -9.9 shows that Harrell had some ability to protect the rim. In the playoffs, that number has taken a stark jump to +3.1%. Players have a better chance to score at the rim against Harrell now than they did in the regular season.

Despite the modern NBA rewarding offense more than defense, rotations shorten and defenses tighten down the stretch of these vital games. Winning a title will always come down to defense, at least to some extent. Montrezl Harrell can score points down low, no doubt. But since he’s stumbling everywhere else, the Clippers have to have some doubt about his ability to be a pivotal player when the game is on the line.

213Hoops is an independently owned and operated L.A. Clippers blog by Clippers fans, for Clippers fans. If you enjoy our content, please consider subscribing to our Patreon. Subscriptions start at $1 a month and support from readers like you goes a long way towards helping us keep 213Hoops sustainable, growing, and thriving.

Montrezl Harrell Needs To Produce More Than Points
Sanjesh Singh

The Los Angeles Clippers have experienced an up-and-down bubble so far, going 3-3 with good wins and head-scratching losses. With the adversity the squad has faced, the mixed results aren’t too shocking (though a loss to the Brooklyn Nets in their current state is pretty appalling.) However, the Clippers have received steady performances from JaMychal Green, whose critical floor spacing as a small-ball center has opened up the offense.

On paper, Green’s numbers have slightly decreased from last year when he split time with the Memphis Grizzlies before coming to the Clippers. Green is playing one more minute a game than he did last season with the Clippers, but his shooting numbers have declined.

In 24 games with L.A. last season, Green shot 48.2% (6.8 attempts) from the field, 41.3% from three (3.3 attempts) and 81% from the charity stripe (0.9 attempts). Through 61 games this season, those figures have dropped to 42.8% from the field (5.6 attempts), 38.1% from three (3.8 attempts) and 75% from the stripe (0.8 attempts). As a result, Green’s points per game went from 8.7 last season to 6.8 now.

However, JaMychal Green has stepped up his game in the Orlando bubble and his ability to provide floor spacing plays a big role in finding open looks for himself as well as others.

Green literally has the green light from anywhere on the court since the bubble games commenced. Through six games, Green is shooting 14-27 from beyond the arc, a rate of 51.8%. He’s taking good looks and is drilling them with confidence.

The players are still developing chemistry and rhythm as they haven’t played meaningful basketball in months, but Green looks like he hasn’t missed a second.

In this play, the Clippers run a top pick-and-roll with Lou Williams as the initiator. Green typically comes off the bench with Montrezl Harrell as his frontcourt partner, but because Harrell hasn’t played yet, Patrick Patterson is next up. Patterson revived his career in L.A. following two unimpressive seasons in Oklahoma City and his floor spacing opens this play up further.

The Clippers empty the interior with Green serving as the roll big and Patterson standing in the left corner. Williams utilizes Green’s screen effectively as he makes Trey Burke trail him. Kristaps Porzingis needs to stay in front of Williams so Williams makes the read to Green, who popped out to the right. Porzingis can’t recover in time and it’s three points for Green.

The acquisition of Marcus Morris has its pros and cons, but his floor spacing comes into play here. Again, the Clippers don’t have an interior presence. Green leaks out beyond the arc, attempting to lure Porzingis away from the paint.

Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are the playmakers on the court. Leonard is able to penetrate the defense after catching the ball, which pulls in four defenders. Dallas is left scrambling when Leonard gets inside and it’s up to Leonard to take advantage of it starting with a pass.

He uses his claw to fake it to Morris, but kicks it out to Green. Green and Landry Shamet play catch causing Burke to run around and the ball movement ends up with Porzingis closing late again. Porzingis gets caught watching the ball and Green drills the big basket late in the game.

What’s another advantage that comes with Green’s floor spacing? Trailing in transition. He can be used as a trailer when coming up the court on either a rebound or made field goal. It’s a simple method to give your big man easy looks and it paid off here.

Much of getting a good look in transition comes down to the defender. Will the defender close out strong? Will the defender not take the bait in case the trailer passes the ball? Can you catch the defender unprepared?

George looks like he wanted to do more with the ball here. However, some stellar defense from Gary Trent Jr. forces George to pass the ball before a traveling violation occurs.

Green never thinks about passing. He has room because Jusuf Nurkic provides it by not closing out strongly. Nurkic is also caught ball-watching for a second too long that allows Green more time to have a clean release. In the end, it’s a good shot from the 6’8″ big.

Green won’t entertain you with fancy passing but his floor spacing also unlocks open looks for his teammates. The dangerous aspect to Green’s game is that you can’t leave him open – his percentage is too respectable to disregard.

The Mavericks double George to prevent the ball going to Leonard as the other Clippers roam the arc. Because of the double on George, there’s bound to be an open Clipper. Green cuts backdoor and kicks it back out to Morris, taking advantage of the two-vs-one situation on Luka Doncic’s hands. It helped that Dallas showed minimal effort to recover.

I have no idea how the Clippers pulled off this win without multiple key players, but they somehow accomplished victory. The biggest play that led to the win was this clutch shot from Rodney McGruder, who’s not a good long range shooter.

However, the open look McGruder gets is largely due to the defense respecting Green. Terance Mann easily blows by Nurkic in the opposite corner, which draws in Carmelo Anthony, Green’s defender. Anthony has to prevent the possible layup attempt, but it leaves CJ McCollum in a rough situation.

McCollum rotates to prevent Mann from going to Green, leaving Mann to pass to McGruder. It’s the difference between having the hot hand in Green shooting or a player who doesn’t shoot many threes in McGruder. Green commanded McCollum’s attention, granting McGruder sufficient time to nail a clutch triple.

Green’s stable play in the seeding games have been a pleasing sight for a team not at full strength yet. Once the missing pieces start filling in during the playoffs, Green will continue to hold a key role in the rotation. He sticks to his strengths whether he’s playing power forward or center.

There’s a reason Green has a net rating of +8.4 and a true shooting percentage of 76.3 in five games in August. Expect the floor spacing of JaMychal Green to contribute to more Clippers’ success in the near future.

 213Hoops is an independently owned and operated L.A. Clippers blog by Clippers fans, for Clippers fans. If you enjoy our content, please consider subscribing to our Patreon. Subscriptions start at $1 a month and support from readers like you goes a long way towards helping us keep 213Hoops sustainable, growing, and thriving.

JaMychal Green’s Floor Spacing has Opened Up the Offense For the Clippers
Sanjesh Singh

The Los Angeles Clippers came into Orlando with numerous concerns surrounding some of their key players. While this might be concerning, it also means the Clippers’ best basketball is still to come.

Here’s just a quick summary of some of the setbacks the Clippers have faced. Ivica Zubac and Landry Shamet arrived to the bubble late due to having positive COVID-19 tests. Marcus Morris came late as well, and is expecting the birth of his son soon, which will cause him to depart the bubble again. Montrezl Harrell and Patrick Beverley, who were already in Orlando, both left due to family emergencies. Lou Williams also departed the bubble to attend a family funeral in Atlanta, but a stop for wings made him quarantine for ten days upon returning.  

The Clippers don’t have to worry about losing their playoff spot in the Western Conference, but since basketball hasn’t been played in four months, it’s imperative to have the main rotation in form sooner rather than later. Team chemistry, conditioning and shaking off the rust is top priority for a team primed to make a deep run in the playoffs – and keep the best seed possible. 

The three scrimmage games every team in Orlando played was designed for that purpose. For the Clippers, however, the scrimmages primarily showcased the young guys they have at the end of the bench – and Joakim Noah. Terrence Mann, Amir Coffey and Rodney McGruder played hefty minutes due to the shorthanded roster, which is good for them, but didn’t help the Clippers get into their real rotations. 

Fortunately, the Clippers got reinforcements with Zubac, Shamet and Beverley returning for the Los Angeles Lakers matchup. However, Montrezl Harrell still isn’t with the team as he grieves the death of his grandmother, Williams’ quarantine just ended, and he looked quite rusty in his first game back – he’ll need more time to get back up to speed.

Still, the Clippers are improving after not playing in so long, and as the players find their rhythms, it’s clear that the best is still to come for the squad. 

A two-point loss to the Lakers isn’t bad at all considering the circumstances. You can point to any missed shot by the Clippers as deciding the outcome, but the game was winnable. Beverley, on a minutes restriction, scored 12 points in 16 minutes. Zubac got into foul trouble and saw 15 minutes of action where he only scored two points. Marcus Morris went scoreless in 19 minutes, Shamet couldn’t buy a basket, and Reggie Jackson’s decision-making on offense looked rough.

Still, the Clippers knocked down 16 threes on 36 attempts, good for 44.4%. That’s a tremendous rate to hit on opening day, with Paul George’s six triples playing a big role in that success. Kawhi Leonard started off slow but got into a rhythm as the game went on and finished with 28 points. The two stars did their jobs, but they needed assistance. 

Against the New Orleans Pelicans, George and Leonard received help and it showed on the scoreboard. Following a successful game from deep against the Lakers, the Clippers somehow managed to top that rate. The Clippers shot 25-47 from deep, good for 53.2%. Again, George was the forefront of the team’s success by hitting on 8-11 attempts, but the players who struggled on opening day began to assert themselves against the Pelicans. 

Morris hit a three en route to nine points, Shamet knocked down two threes for his only field goals, and Zubac grabbed nine rebounds in 24 minutes. Beverley, who started but was still on a minutes restriction, provided his usual consistent presence from deep going 3-5 for nine points. Jackson came off the bench to lead that unit, scoring 15 points in 20 minutes and knocking down 3-4 threes. 

The hot shooting from the entire team proved to be too much to overcome for New Orleans and illustrated how dangerous the Clippers can be when the players are at their best. That level of shooting for L.A. is definitely unsustainable, but considering the fact that Williams and Harrell didn’t play, it could’ve been worse for the Pelicans. 

The scorching hot shooting for the Clippers cooled off massively against the Phoenix Suns, but games like that happen every now and then. George and Leonard struggled to hit their shots despite being the team’s leading scorers. As a team, the Clippers shot just 8-29 from deep, a clip of 27.6%. That could lead to believing the Clippers were blown out by their opponents, but that wasn’t the case. Though the Suns were the team on fire from three (17-32, 53.1%), it took a tough turnaround jumper at the buzzer by Devin Booker to win. 

In good news, Morris and Zubac were a combined 13-17 from the floor, with Zubac grabbing 12 rebounds. Zubac notably arrived in Orlando late, and to see him put up a performance that was desperately needed (besides the late crucial turnover) gives the frontcourt additional versatility going forward while JaMychal Green continues to be a perfect floor space at center. 

Williams made his return following his 10-day quarantine, but he naturally didn’t play as well as he could’ve. Williams grabbed six rebounds and dished out six assists, but he couldn’t provide the points off the bench that he’s known for. With Beverley leaving the game early, the Clippers should be relieved that Williams is back now rather than later, as Beverley’s injury is one to watch going forward. 

Now that Williams is back, it’ll be interesting to see how Doc Rivers gets him going. Williams won’t have his main PnR partner in Harrell available yet, but as mentioned, Beverley’s injury sets the team back in some areas. With Beverley being out, more of the ballhandling and playmaking duties will fall on Lou, which could be rough as he gets into shape, but will be good for him in the long term. 

It may take a few games for Williams to find his footing again. One key thing for Lou will be hitting his outside shots (he didn’t hit one against the Suns). He’s not elite from the arc, but he’s a respectable threat and with Beverley’s shooting currently out of the equation, Williams will need to step up on that end as well as providing his usual scoring inside the arc. 

The Clippers play the Dallas Mavericks next, and that’s a team that hasn’t looked sharp defensively. Guards have been scoring with ease against them, making it a good opportunity for Williams to shine.

When Harrell makes his return to the bubble, there’s no doubt the Clippers will see a big boost in energy and interior scoring. Due to the recent passing of his grandmother, we could be seeing Harrell with more energy and passion than ever. Writing that sentence alone gives me goosebumps.

https://twitter.com/MONSTATREZZ/status/1290734117907308548?s=19 

Harrell’s presence in the paint would’ve been vital in a game as against the Suns where nothing fell from deep. Green’s spacing has provided the Clippers with an alternative if having Zubac or Noah on the court isn’t ideal, but nobody can match Trez’s ability to score and create in the paint. His scoring and energy simply isn’t replaceable. 

The Clippers losing two games by four points in the final seconds against two good teams speaks volumes to how great they can be when Williams and Harrell return. The Clippers haven’t been fully healthy for the most parts of this season, but they’re getting close to it (despite Beverley’s injury). Once that happens, the chemistry and execution should start to pick up as well.

Reintegrating Williams and Harrell into the rotation should serve the team better than giving Patrick Patterson and Shamet minutes right now, even with Lou and Trez being rusty. With those two back, the Clippers not only get stronger on paper, but also gain new dimensions on the court that will make a huge difference in games against competitive teams. Other Western Conference opponents should fear the opportunity to play a Clippers team that hasn’t reached their best in Orlando yet.

213Hoops is an independently owned and operated L.A. Clippers blog by Clippers fans, for Clippers fans. If you enjoy our content, please consider subscribing to our Patreon. Subscriptions start at $1 a month and support from readers like you goes a long way towards helping us keep 213Hoops sustainable, growing, and thriving.

The Clippers’ Best Bubble Basketball is Still to Come
Sanjesh Singh

The Question

The Clippers are a top 3 offense in the NBA, but unlike the other top offenses in the league, their offense doesn’t take the modern approach of emphasizing 3-pointers and layups while cutting out mid-range shots. The Clippers embrace mid-range shots, but there’s a good reason those other teams shy away from those very same looks. So, the question rattling around my head is: will the Clippers’ offense still be effective in the playoffs, or is it doomed to fail?

A Refreshing Offense

We’ve been down this road before, watching Clippers offenses that fail to maintain their momentum in the playoffs. During the Lob City era, we saw a calculated offense that ran through Chris Paul in the pick-and-roll, Blake Griffin facing-up on the block, DeAndre Jordan setting screens and rim-rolling, and JJ Redick running routes off-ball. While the offense was almost always ranked in the top 10, it became too predictable in the post-season, as we saw the league’s best defenses turn a potent offense into a seemingly average one—frustrating, to say the least.

The 2019-20 Clippers offense feels completely different. Sure, various players have their spots they like to get to, but there are so many different weapons and variations on how they score. The Clippers have a deep, deep bag to pull from: Kawhi Leonard fading away, Lou Williams left-fading jumper, Paul George running Curry-like routes off-ball, Patrick Beverley spotting up, Montrezl Harrell facing up on the block, Lou and Trezz pick-and-roll with JaMychal Green rotating on the perimeter, Kawhi and Ivica Zubac pick-and-roll, Kawhi’s jab-to-step-back-3, Marcus Morris Sr. finding and abusing mismatches, Pat Bev floaters, Reggie Jackson lane probing… you get the idea.

With varying points of attack, the offense is less predictable, more improvised, and more difficult for defenses to adapt to. All good things. However, resting comfortably in the Clippers’ offense are a healthy amount of mid-range shots. Is that a problem?

The Mid-range and “Moreyball”

Before I start, one note: for the purposes of this article, the “mid-range” is defined as any 2-pointer that’s not within the restricted area under the rim. Across the league those paint shots outside of the restricted area are just as inefficient as the longer 2-pointers, when compared to shots in the restricted circle. Stats.NBA.com separates them for some reason, but I really see no point.

So you’ve probably heard (ad nauseam) that mid-range shots are bad. But if you haven’t, I’ll break it down: the most basic version of the concept is that you can make 33% of your 3-pointers, and it’s the equivalent of making 50% of your 2-pointers. The league average efficiency for mid-range 2-pointers is 40%, versus 63% for shots at the rim and 35% for 3-pointers. So it seems like a no-brainer to stick to layups and 3-pointers, right? That, and free-throws when you can get them, but those aren’t exactly something a team can control (though some players make a concerted effort).

The Rockets are certainly believers, hence the term “Moreyball,” named for Rockets GM Daryl Morey, that’s often been used to describe this offensive approach. The Rockets shoot by far the fewest mid-range shots in the league at 15.5 per game (most of which are from Russell Westbrook), with the second fewest being the Nets all the way up at 19.1. The Rockets are 8th in shots at the rim, and as you’d expect they lead the league in 3-point attempts at over 44.

The NBA’s Other Top Offenses

It’s not just the Rockets that avoid the mid-range. The Mavericks too subscribe to this concept, currently 2nd in 3-point attempts, but 22nd in mid-range attempts. Curiously, though, the Mavericks are 29th in shots at the rim, and yet they still boast the best Offensive Rating in NBA history (115.8). But this is driven mostly by their 3-point shots, which they shoot far more efficiently than the Rockets.

The Lakers, on the other hand, focus on shots at the rim. They’re 3rd in rim attempts, but their league-leading rim efficiency (69.2%) vastly outshines the two teams ahead of them in attempts—they’re truly the kings of the restricted area, and it’s almost singlehandedly carried them to the 4th ranked offense. From long-range, the Lakers are 23rd in attempts. From the mid-range, they’re 18th in attempts, but that comes mostly from Anthony Davis’ 7.5 attempts at 38.7% efficiency and from LeBron James’ 4.9 attempts at 36.7% (wow) efficiency.

[Note to Doc: Force LeBron to shoot mid-range jumpers.]

The Bucks are a mix of both. They’re rim specialists with the 2nd highest efficiency in the restricted area (67%), but they also shoot the 4th most threes per game. From mid-range, the Bucks are 23rd in attempts, but they’re actually 4th in efficiency. This is mostly thanks to Khris Middleton being an absolute sniper, with 7.4 attempts at 51.4%(!!!) efficiency.

Beyond 1 or 2 players on each team, none of these top-ranked offenses really rely on mid-range shots, even when they’re good at them. It’s just not part of their game plan.

The Clippers’ Offense

The Clippers are a different story. As a team, they’re not really specialists in any one area, but rather they’re in the middle-of-the-pack in every category. At the rim, they’re 18th in attempts and 15th in efficiency. From 3-point-range, they’re 16th in attempts and 10th in efficiency. And from mid-range, they’re 12th in attempts and 13th in efficiency.

Now, that last sentence might be confusing—but let me be clear: even though the Clippers aren’t ranked near the top of the league in mid-range shot attempts, the mid-range still features heavily in their offense. No team has as many key players with the mid-range built into their game. The Clippers are the only team in the league with four players shooting five or more mid-range shots per game. So it’s safe to say that while the mid-range doesn’t define the Clippers’ offense, it’s clearly important to multiple key Clippers that drive the offense. And on the whole they still shoot far more mid-range shots than any of the other top offensive teams.

So based on everything we’ve covered so far, the Clippers’ need for mid-range success should be bad news, right?  Well, not quite.

A Problem with “Moreyball”

First, let’s not get things twisted: the “Moreyball” model isn’t wrong. It’s almost always right, and it’s changed the face of the NBA. There’s a reason that NBA teams are scoring more as more teams adopt this model. Teams are averaging over 10 points more per game than in 2015, when the Warriors first won a championship using a similar model.

But as defenses have begun to adjust to defending these types of offenses, they’ve exposed some of the cracks in its logic. By sticking to the system so religiously and refusing to take mid-range shots, teams can become predictable as defenses can focus their efforts on running shooters off the arc and contesting at the rim. This becomes even more true during the playoffs. When comparing the 2019 playoffs to the 2018-19 season, teams had fewer attempts and decreased efficiency in both the restricted area and 3-point range, while having increased attempts from the mid-range. 

Knowing this, it’s not surprising that the 2018-19 Warriors took the 2nd most mid-range shots in the league, and the 2017-18 Warriors took the 7th most mid-range shots. As Kevin Durant once debated with sports analyst Matt Moore on Twitter, the mid-range shots helped open up the Warriors’ offense in response to those adapting defenses. Matt responded that those shots only make sense if you can actually make them at an efficient rate. Both points are correct.

Other Important Factors

Location of shots is hardly the only consideration when it comes to an NBA team’s offensive aspirations in the post-season. As Steve Kerr noted last year, the Warriors had to adapt their 2015 offense in a number of ways to remain relevant and stay ahead of defenses, particularly in the playoffs when offensive schemes tend not to go as planned. In the modern NBA, having a deep bag of tricks is essential to making an offense sustain through the grind of the playoffs.

You need players who can score in isolation or pick-and-roll situations, when the more complex action can’t be achieved. You need players who can score from every part of the floor to keep defenses guessing and to be able to find the chink in a defense’s armor, wherever that may be. You need players who can score in clutch situations with the game on the line. Ultimately, you need a team that’s comfortable in any situation the game throws at them.

Fortunately for the 2019-20 Clippers, they already have many of these attributes on the roster. Kawhi Leonard is one of the most efficient iso players in the league, scoring 1.07 points per possession (PPP) in such situations. He’s also their leading mid-range scorer, drilling 46% of his mid-range shots this season (and that was after a cold start—he’s bumped that up to 55% after the All Star break). Paul George and Kawhi are some of the better pick-and-roll ball-handlers in the league, at 0.95 and 0.97 PPP respectively. Trezz and Kawhi are near the top of the league in post-up PPP at 0.98 apiece. Paul George has the 2nd highest PPP in the league for players coming off of a screen at 1.13. The Clippers have a top-5 FG% and 3P% in clutch situations as well. And, when they space the floor, they can absolutely make it rain from three-point land.

Lawrence Frank and Jerry West purposefully and strategically built the Clippers to deal with a wide range of obstacles for a reason, which is the point of all this. That’s the modern NBA.

My Answer

So back to the original question posed: Will the Clippers’ offense still be effective in the playoffs, or is it doomed to fail?

Well, all offenses become less effective during the playoffs in some capacity, since they’re only facing the best defenses. But I think the Clippers will deal with that drop-off better than other teams will. When defenses tighten and adapt in the post-season, those other teams will be taken out of their element and either be stuck taking mid-range shots that they rarely shoot, or they’ll force the issue trying to get to their “comfort zone,” ultimately settling for a heavily-contested 3 or off-balance hook shot.

The Clippers, on the other hand, will always be willing and able to take those mid-range shots, since they’ve made the entire court their comfort zone while remaining a top 3 offense. Even if they’re slightly less efficient shots, they’re familiar shots that allow the team to stay in an offensive rhythm.

I think that’s why even during big moments of marquee games this year, the Clippers have never looked rattled. The same could not be said for the Lob City squads. And perhaps that’s why, for the first time in a while, I have no anxiety or apprehension as the most versatile Clippers squad ever assembled heads into the playoffs to contend for a title. It’s not that I feel like this team is guaranteed to win it all or anything that definitive, but rather that if this team loses, it will have been on their terms. And for a Clipper fan, with the history of playoff letdowns that we’ve had to go through, that’s one hell of a feeling.

Do The Clippers Rely Too Much on Mid-Range Shots?
Erik Olsgaard

After over 4 months without meaningful basketball, we’re all a little eager to talk hoops. So, in addition to 213Hoops contributor Thomas Wood’s excellent game recap from last night, I wanted to chime in this morning to offer five takeaways from Clippers – Lakers on opening night.

Now, as exciting as the game was, and as important as it felt, I feel the need to start by reminding us all that at the end of the day, it was just one regular season basketball game. Sure, these teams share a city and are the presumptive pairing for the Western Conference Finals in September, but they’re also both using low-importance seeding games to warm up for real action in the upcoming playoffs. On top of that, the Clippers’ Orlando camp was disjointed, as Marcus Morris arrived late, Ivica Zubac and Landry Shamet had delayed arrivals due to positive COVID tests, and Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams, and Montrezl Harrell had to depart the bubble for family emergencies. While the other four played last night, Williams is unavailable as he undergoes a 10-day quarantine, and Harrell is still with family outside of the bubble.

So, my apologies, but you won’t find a meltdown over a 2-point regular season loss on 213Hoops. As I share my takeaways from last night, you also won’t find major overreactions. I’m not going to say that Marcus Morris is a bad player based on his abysmal game against the Lakers (even considered alongside his other abysmal game against the Lakers in March). But, we all watched 48 minutes of basketball last night, so let’s look at five takeaways from Lakers-Clippers and figure out what we learned:

Clippers Lakers Takeaway Number One: The Clippers need Patrick Beverley

Signing Reggie Jackson to a rest-of-season minimum deal was a steal for the Clippers. After months of discussing uninspiring potential mid-season point guard additions, Jackson, a 300-game NBA starter, fell into the Clippers’ lap. He was great for them in 9 regular season games off the bench before the season’s suspension, and provides a far better fill-in option at point guard when normal starter Patrick Beverley is unavailable than any of LA’s alternatives.

But he’s still not Pat. Jackson, who had an embattled and hotly criticized tenure as a starter in Detroit, showed some of his worse attributes on Thursday, often allowing his speed to carry him into tricky situations and difficult drives. He finished with 3-10 shooting, 4 assists, and 4 turnovers in 34 minutes, and his presence on the court rarely inspired confidence.

Beverley, playing on a de facto minutes restriction as he returns to action following a family emergency, contributed 12 points in 16 minutes, including 8 fourth quarter points as the Clippers fought back to make it a tight game in the closing minutes. While Jackson makes more things happen offensively than Pat, those things aren’t always good–in a lineup replete with high-efficiency scorers, there’s something to be said for a point guard who is patient with the ball and defers to the stars while playing elite defense and hitting a high percentage of his threes.

Jackson has an important role to play on this team, but tonight was a reminder of just how important Patrick Beverley is to the Clippers.

Clippers Lakers Takeaway Number Two: Zubac and Shamet need time

Look, sometimes we just have to be patient. Ivica Zubac and Landry Shamet are not only two of the Clippers’ best players, but they’re the Clippers two best young players, both 23 years old. While Zubac had a stellar year for the Clippers, and Shamet was inconsistent but remained the team’s best pure shooter, it’s possible that both will see their minutes reduced in the Orlando bubble.

After each testing positive for the coronavirus in early July, Zubac and Shamet did not arrive in Orlando until last week, missing not only weeks of important team practices but also going weeks without doing conditioning work or getting shots up. It takes a while for a human body to build from weeks of inactivity to having the conditioning to perform at a high level in the NBA, and symptoms of COVID–such as fatigue–can take weeks or months to clear up after a patient has otherwise recovered.

There’s no way around it: both Zubac and Shamet were awful last night against the Lakers. But I can also say with full confidence that neither is an awful basketball player. Give them time to get their legs under them and figure things out–even if it means reduced roles in Orlando and a healthy start next season.

Clippers Lakers Takeaway Number Three: Amir Coffey has climbed the depth chart

This might be the least consequential of the bunch, but I promised five takeaways from Clippers – Lakers and I intend to fulfill that promise. Plus, who doesn’t love Coffey–the undrafted guard who starred for the Clippers in summer league last year, signed a two-way deal, and ultimately was chosen to come to Orlando over the team’s first-round pick from the same draft.

It’s basically impossible for Coffey to earn regular minutes on this team, as the Clippers have star-studded wings and quality guard depth. But beyond the starting unit of Beverley, George, and Leonard, and the second trio of Jackson, Williams, and Shamet, it’s likely that at one point or another in the playoffs Doc will run into the right combination of minor injuries, foul trouble, and off nights and need a few minutes from someone. Tonight, with Williams quarantined and Beverley and Shamet both limited, Coffey was that someone for Doc Rivers, playing a few minutes in each half and contributing a made three in his only recorded stat.

Rivers’ choice to trust Coffey over veteran wing Rodney McGruder is not only noteworthy as a predictor of where he will turn in future situations, but also compelling when considering each player’s future with the team beyond this season.

Clippers Lakers Takeaway Number Four: JaMychal Green and Patrick Patterson both deserve minutes

I’m not sure that there’s a right answer for Doc Rivers at the power forward position. Currently firmly entrenched at starter is versatile scorer Marcus Morris, the veteran forward who was averaging 20 points per game and shooting 44% from deep for the New York Knicks before the Clippers paid a high price for him at this year’s trade deadline. Then, battling for backup minutes are JaMychal Green and Patrick Patterson, two more traditional stretch 4s who play a lot of pick-and-pop game while battling defensively.

The biggest problem Rivers faces isn’t which backup forward’s number to call on a given night–it’s that both backups have been far superior than the guy starting ahead of them since his arrival in Los Angeles. Now, last night was just Marcus Morris’ 13th game as a Clipper–even without his New York efficiency, we have a decade of data to look at and know he won’t be as bad over a large sample size as he’s been so far.

Going away from Morris now would be a mistake, not because it would make the trade look bad, but because he is a potentially valuable weapon for the Clippers in the postseason. But even last night, where Morris played 19 minutes to Patterson’s 22 and Green’s 29, it felt indefensible for Rivers to keep his starter on the floor for as much of the fourth quarter as he did.

I don’t have a broad, sweeping conclusion to the discussion of how to handle these power forward minutes. Maybe it varies drastically based on match-up. Maybe Morris can pick up extra minutes as the second-unit small forward, where he’d get more touches playing behind Kawhi Leonard instead of along side him. There may come a point where JaMychal Green needs to be inserted into the starting lineup over Morris, but we aren’t there yet.

For now, the takeaway is just that the Clippers have a legitimate question mark at the power forward position.

Clippers Lakers Takeaway Number Five: The small-ball lineup has potential

The most important of my five takeaways from last night’s Clippers – Lakers game also has to do with the team’s power forwards. After Rivers frustrated fans all season by limiting JaMychal Green’s time at center following his excellent performances as a small-ball 5 in last year’s playoffs, limited depth has finally forced Green to center in Orlando.

With Zubac and Noah each unable to play huge minutes, and Montrezl Harrell not with the team, Green has consistently gotten center minutes in the team’s scrimmages and opening seeding game. When Green and Patterson play together, the Clippers’ offense takes on a new dimension: with two floor-spacing bigs, the opposing center is dragged out of the paint, freeing up driving lanes for the Clippers’ stars. When defenses collapse around Leonard and George, Patterson and Green are reliable spot-up and pick-and-pop shooters that punish the opposition. It’s been a sneakily effective way for the Clippers, who have sometimes struggled to find a good flow offensively to open up passing lanes and create more fluid possessions.

The Clippers aren’t the Rockets–playing small probably shouldn’t be their identity. When they go small, they miss Zubac’s rim protection and rebounding, Noah’s passing and defensive mobility, and Montrezl Harrell’s energy and elite interior scoring. But just as each of those centers brings a unique wrinkle to the Clippers’ lineup, so does the defensive versatility and floor-spacing ability of the Patterson-Green pairing (and perhaps a Morris-Green pairing, if Marcus can make a shot as a Clipper).

Doc Rivers will have to be willing to stick with them when they’re losing on the glass (though more minutes for Patrick Beverley going forward will help the team’s rebounding) and getting pounded inside, but this tandem has the potential to create more additional points than they concede, and potentially force larger, slower big men off the floor by making them defend on the perimeter.

There you have it: my five takeaways from last night’s opener between the Clippers and Lakers. If you disagree, or noticed something I didn’t mention, let me know in the comments!

213Hoops is an independently owned and operated L.A. Clippers blog by Clippers fans, for Clippers fans. If you enjoy our content, please consider subscribing to our Patreon. Subscriptions start at $1 a month and support from readers like you goes a long way towards helping us keep 213Hoops sustainable, growing, and thriving.

Five Takeaways from Clippers – Lakers
Lucas Hann

As NBA teams gear up to begin pre-season “scrimmage” play in Orlando this week, it’s safe to say that we shouldn’t take these pre-mid-season games too seriously. But, still, the games are going to be on TV and we’re going to be watching, so I figured it would be good to check in and discuss what to watch for in the Orlando scrimmages.

First, let’s outline what not to watch for: quality from the Clippers’ good players. Guys that are guaranteed to be a part of the team’s playoff core–Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams, Paul George, and Kawhi Leonard come to mind among players who are currently in Orlando (Montrezl Harrell left the bubble due to a family matter, while Ivica Zubac and Landry Shamet all have yet to arrive in Orlando at all and Marcus Morris participated in his first practice this morning)–don’t really need these games to be anything more than tune-ups. I expect them all to play (though it wouldn’t be a big deal if someone, like Morris who just arrived, sat out), but they should all have relatively limited minutes as they work into game shape and Doc Rivers balances getting everyone playing time in the 10-minute scrimmage quarters.

While I know we’ll all be excited to see some of our favorite Clippers take the court, a poor shooting night for one of their stars really doesn’t mean much. The further we go down the Clippers’ roster, however, the more these largely meaningless games can become meaningful for individual players who are going to be competing with each other for minutes as the absent Clippers arrive in Orlando, the playoffs drag on, and Doc Rivers’ rotation tightens. So, with that in mind, here are 3 things to watch for as the Clippers return to play this week:

Is Joakim Noah “back”?

This is what most Clippers fans will watch for in the Orlando scrimmages. Few topics in the Clippersphere have as much intrigue as how the arrival of Joakim Noah will impact the team in Orlando. Originally signed to a 10-day contract just before the season was suspended, Noah has yet to actually appear in a game for the club, but has now been an anticipated free agent arrival for over four months. Of course, the Joakim Noah you’ll remember–2013-14’s Defensive Player of the Year and All-NBA First Team Center–ain’t walking through that door. But that doesn’t mean, half a decade later, that the 35-year-old veteran has nothing to offer the Clippers in this title run.

Noah signed mid-season with the Memphis Grizzlies last season and contributed quite solidly, posting averages of 7.1 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 2.1 assists while playing 16.5 minutes per game in 42 contests. More important than his per-minute stats, he showed that while he is no longer in his prime, he was still Joakim Noah in Memphis–a fiercely physical and passionate center who excelled at rebounding and was a far above-average passer for his position. At his best, Noah has a bit of Patrick Beverley in him, and it should be a real treat for Clippers fans to watch the two of them share the floor in Orlando.

Still, Noah is a year older now and has had to recover from another major injury. With the Clippers already boasting two good-but-limited younger centers, there’s a pretty wide spectrum for Joakim’s potential impact in the playoffs: anywhere from “a good locker room presence who isn’t really serviceable” to “the center Doc Rivers trusts most to close big games.” While he would have gotten run in these scrimmages regardless, it’s worth nothing that the Clippers have no other center in Orlando currently. Even when Montrezl Harrell returns and Ivica Zubac arrives, it’s unlikely that either of those guys will bring much different than the (very good) versions of themselves that fans have grown accustomed to watching. But Noah provides a player ripe to be evaluated, and while we don’t want to overreact to good or bad performances in these meaningless scrimmages, we should be able to learn a little bit about the extent to which he still is (or isn’t) an NBA-caliber player.

JaMychal Green and Patrick Patterson

Another thing to watch for in the Orlando scrimmages will be the backup power forward battle. I like both JaMychal Green and Patrick Patterson quite a bit (though I must say I give the edge to Green after his wonderful playoff performances for the Clippers last season). But here’s something that I think is safe to say: if the Clippers stay healthy, only one of these guys will be a rotation fixture in the playoffs. Now that Marcus Morris has arrived in Orlando, he figures to take over the starting power forward spot, and between Morris’ likely big minutes and any time Kawhi Leonard takes at power forward in small-ball lineups, there’s only minutes for one backup power forward at most.

But what will be a crowded front court when the Clippers’ roster is intact is wide-open as scrimmage play begins. Not only do Green and Patterson have the chance to both get minutes at power forward as Morris eases his way back into the lineup, but they’re also the two most viable options to split minutes at center with Joakim Noah (though Rivers has hinted in the past that he’d like to try small-ball lineups with Morris at center). It’s not likely that anyone will play seriously heavy minutes during these scrimmages, but the openness in the current depth chart means that both will get plenty of run to both prove their superior fit as the team’s backup 4 throughout the bubble, as well as potentially convince Doc Rivers to incorporate small-ball lineups with one of them spacing the floor at center.

Beyond these scrimmages, we’re just over a week away from opening night against the Los Angeles Lakers on July 30th–a bit of déjà vu from Doc Rivers’ decision to start Patterson over Green and then-normal starter Moe Harkless way back when the 2019-20 season opened against the Lakers on October 22nd of last year. One of these two will need to use the July practices and scrimmages to pull ahead in Doc Rivers’ eyes.

Third String Wings

The general rule of thumb is that the less a game means, the more you’ll be able to see obscure players–like benchwarmers, prospects, two-way players–get real reps. So, when I was asked on some podcasts this weekend what to watch for in the Orlando scrimmages, my mind immediately went to the Clippers’ third-string perimeter players: Terance Mann, Rodney McGruder, and Amir Coffey.

Coffey and Mann, of course, are the two rookie wings the Clippers brought with them to Orlando, while McGruder is a more established veteran who has disappointed for the team after being an under-the-radar value signing last summer. The three of them make up a contingent of perimeter reserves who will support the Clippers’ continuing efforts to load manage Kawhi Leonard and limit the burden on their other core perimeter players as everyone’s body slowly returns to full conditioning. Beyond that, they make up the potential emergency players for Doc Rivers–like when someone rolls an ankle to start the fourth quarter of a playoff game and Doc Rivers needs a reserve to hold down the fort for two minutes before a starter can come back in to close the game.

Right now, you’d imagine that Rodney McGruder holds the advantage among these three. He’s the guy who is probably most likely to fill in for Landry Shamet until the sharpshooting guard can arrive safely in Orlando, as well as get rotation minutes on any nights when Leonard sits out. But given McGruder’s poor performances through much of the season, you have to imagine that he has something to prove in Orlando–and something to lose if either rookie shows competence and energy. The potential for either a McGruder redemption arc, or surprising emergence from one of the Clippers’ rookie wings, is what I’ll be keeping close tabs on in these scrimmages.

L.A. Clippers: What to Watch for in the Orlando Scrimmages
Lucas Hann