Two years after their elimination in the 2021 Western Conference Finals, the LA Clippers have made their way back to the NBA Playoffs. Two losses in the double-elimination Play-In Tournament in 2022, both without Kawhi Leonard and the latter without Paul George, led to a rare first round without the Clippers, who will appear in the playoffs for the 10th time in the last 12 years when their series against the Suns tips off Sunday evening. The franchise saw just six postseason appearances in its first 41 seasons, spanning time as the Buffalo Braves, San Diego Clippers, and LA Clippers (technically, with the innovation of the play-in tournament, they’ve made the postseason 11 of the last 12 years).

Even as the Clippers have entered their playoff era after decades at the bottom of the NBA standings, misfortunes have haunted them. I already noted that they didn’t get to play in the 2022 playoffs despite achieving a top-8 finish due to having their stars unavailable in the play-in tournament. Their 2021 Western Conference Finals run, the best in franchise history, saw Kawhi Leonard tear his ACL, forcing the team to play, and be eliminated, without their best player. Chris Paul and Blake Griffin were chronically hurt during the Lob City era’s playoff runs, with the team losing in the first round in back-to-back years in 2016 (without both stars) and 2017 (without Griffin). This year, despite their best caution, an unfortunate late-season knee injury to Paul George has once again left the Clippers facing an uphill playoff battle.

Series Schedule

Game 1: Sunday, 4/16 – 5:00pm PT – TNT and Bally Sports SoCal
Game 2: Tuesday, 4/18 – 7:00pm PT – TNT and Bally Sports SoCal
Game 3: Thursday, 4/20 – 7:30pm PT – NBATV and Bally Sports SoCal
Game 4: Saturday, 4/22 – 12:30pm PT – TNT and Bally Sports SoCal
Game 5: Tuesday, 4/25 – Time TBD – National TV TBD and Bally Sports SoCal
Game 6: Thursday, 4/27 – Time TBD – National TV TBD and Bally Sports SoCal
Game 7: Saturday, 4/29 – Time TBD – National TV TBD and Bally Sports SoCal

What’s that old saying about insult and injury? As if heading into the playoffs without Paul George wasn’t bad enough, the NBA’s schedulemakers went as far as they could to exacerbate the issue by making them play as many games as quickly as possible. The Suns-Clippers series is the only Western Conference first round series without an extra day off during the first four games (Grizzlies-Lakers and Kings-Warriors both have 2 extra days off during games 1-4), and their game 4 will tip off 7 hours before the Lakers’ game 3. It might not end up mattering, but the Clippers’ accelerated schedule could really cost them as they await a potential mid-series return from George.

Clippers fans will be happy to be reminded, after a year away from the playoffs, that local broadcasts continue to carry games through the first round of the NBA Playoffs, meaning that in-market viewers can still catch Brien Sieman and company a few more times this year.

The Big Picture

It’s hard to not be frustrated with how the Clippers’ 2022-23 campaign played out. It’s perhaps even more frustrating that an injured superstar might be what puts the final nail in LA’s coffin once again. After an ACL injury to Kawhi Leonard left him on the sidelines as the Clippers were eliminated each of the last two seasons, one hope balanced even the lowest moments of the last few months: get to the playoffs healthy, and a 2-time NBA Finals MVP would be on our side. As the playoffs get ready to begin, that much is true, but without his superstar sidekick, Clippers fans are faced with an all-too-familiar looming feeling.

Even if George’s absence is the elephant in the room all series, it’s worth recounting a tumultuous year that was far from on track when he went down against Oklahoma City a few weeks ago. The season was thrown in to disarray early, as a last-minute decision was made hours before opening night tip-off that Leonard was not ready to play a full game of starter’s minutes as he worked back from his ACL surgery. Remember when Kawhi was coming off the bench in the middle of the second quarter and playing second halves? It feels like a bad dream, as do the 19 games the Clippers played without him in the early weeks of the season, completely unsure if and when he’d be returning and what he’d look like when he did. It wasn’t just pessimism from fans, either: the uncertainty around their best player’s health had an effect on the morale and performance of Leonard’s teammates, too.

To Leonard’s credit, after missing 19 of the Clippers’ first 24 games, he played in 47 of the remaining 58, averaging 25 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists. One of the biggest subplots of the 2022-23 season: Kawhi Leonard was BACK back, playing at an All-NBA level, getting to his spots and ruthlessly punishing defenses from them, and winning basketball games. The Clippers were 33-19 with Kawhi in the lineup this season, a better winning percentage than the West’s 2 seed, Memphis (with the significant caveat that every team has to play–and lose–games while missing different combinations of their best players, so the Clippers with Kawhi vs other teams’ full seasons is not a simple or definitive comparison).

But around Leonard’s intermittent absences, the team struggled to find consistent, effective combinations. Incumbent starting point guard Reggie Jackson fell off a cliff after a hard fall in Portland in December, ultimately losing the gig during a 6-game slide before being dealt at the trade deadline. Marcus Morris, a fixture at power forward for the last four years, started 65 of the Clippers’ first 75 games before losing the job to Nico Batum and simultaneously dealing with an illness and back spasms that leave his role unclear heading into the playoffs. Terance Mann went from the fringe of the rotation to starting for a month before the All-Star Break in what was the best stretch of play the team had this year before heading back to the second unit down the stretch. Veteran forward Robert Covington signed a $22M extention just to find himself not in Ty Lue’s plans. The team played without a backup center for much of the year before acquiring Mason Plumlee at the trade deadline. Fellow deadline acquisition Eric Gordon is starting in place of the injured Paul George over longer-tenured teammates. Sophomore guard Bones Hyland is simultaneously the guard who has been most effective in George’s absence and appears most likely to not get minutes in this series. The year has been a mess of four-guard lineups, waning intensity levels, and misdiagnosed issues causing a new stumble every time it felt like the team was ready to find its stride. Even their pair of wins to close the season was troubling, as they barely found a way to survive contests against opponents who were trying to lose.

Despite it all, the Clippers are here. I don’t think we ever dreamed that avoiding the play-in tournament would be a triumph, but they managed it in the closing weeks of the season despite George’s injury. They play the games for a reason. They have talent, experience, and versatility, with a coach who is renowned for finding the right tweaks in best-of-7 playoff series. We’ve waited all year to see if the Clippers were going to find a way to put it all together and make something out of this season. This is their final, and most meaningful, chance to find the best version of themselves.

The Antagonist

In the other corner, we have a Phoenix Suns team that has hardly had a season together at all. Kevin Durant–you might have heard of him–was brought in at the trade deadline in a major blockbuster and has only played 8 games due to an ankle injury. The team’s leader in minutes played this year, Mikal Bridges, hasn’t been on the team for two months. Jae Crowder, Phoenix’s starting power forward the last two seasons, never played a game this year due to a breakdown over extension talks and his planned removal from the starting lineup in favor of Cameron Johnson, who wound up playing just 17 games in an injury-riddled half-season before being a part of the Durant trade. Devin Booker missed 29 games, including almost all of a 2-12 mid-season stretch where the team struggled to stay afloat while severely depleted. Phoenix’s 5th starter is Timberwolves reject Josh Okogie, who signed a one-year minimum contract last summer and was never expected to play this type of role (more on him later).

Phoenix has a very good top 4–Durant, Booker, Chris Paul, and DeAndre Ayton–and a lot of question marks surrounding them. Those 4 guys have only played 159 minutes together. They’ve won those minutes by a staggering 62 points (a rate of about 19 points per game), though the competition level is highly suspect and the small sample is highly unstable. The fit makes natural sense, and the high talent levels and complementary skillsets should allow for those guys to play intuitively without needing a major adjustment period. So far, it’s fair to say that they’ve aced a series of easy tests. They’re 8-0 when Durant plays, but five of those games came against lottery teams and two came against noncompetitive Denver Nuggets lineups that didn’t include Nikola Jokic. The best signature win on the Suns’ resume in the Durant era? A 7-point home win against Western Conference 8-seed Minnesota in Phoenix. When game 1 tips off on Sunday, the Clippers will immediately be the best opponent that the Suns’ new core 4 has faced.

Will that affect the Suns negatively early in the series? It’s hard to say. After all, the Clippers’ current presumed starting lineup without George or Morris has even fewer games together than the Suns’, and as mentioned above, LA’s rotation has been an inconsistent medley throughout the year. Still, no presence in the Clippers’ rotation is quite as unfamiliar or quite as imposing as Durant’s.

Here’s what you can count on from Phoenix: they’ll play at a very low pace, focusing on different combinations of on- and off-ball screens involving all 5 players on the floor to target different matchups for Booker and Durant. Even as his individual prowess has declined, Paul can still pull the strings as well as anyone, meaning efforts to double Durant or Booker are going to be punished when the ball finds his hands out of a trap and gimmicky pick-and-roll coverages will be read and exploited. The core 4 will play the bulk of the minutes, although it’s possible that head coach Monty Williams tries to protect his guys’ from wear and tear in an opening-round series where they are heavily favored, especially in the early games. None of those guys are particularly durable, and Clippers fans know all too well how hard it is to get Chris Paul through a playoff run healthy.

When they go to the bench, there are a number of different options, most of whom focus their contributions on one end of the floor. Cameron Payne is a speed demon ballhandler who has tortured LAC’s slower defenders in the past. Landry Shamet, Terrence Ross, Damion Lee, and T.J. Warren can all provide shooting on the wings. My guess is only one of those guys will be in Williams’ game 1 plans, but we could see others when Phoenix needs a spark as the series goes on. Torrey Craig will see significant minutes as a defensive option against Kawhi Leonard who has had an uncharacteristically stellar season shooting the basketball–a lot of possessions in this series might come down to the Clippers forcing him to prove that improvement is legit. Ish Wainwright provides energy and defense at multiple positions, but will likely only see spot minutes. Bismack Biyombo and Jock Landale each bring something a little different as the backup center (Biyombo is the better defender, while Landale has a more well-rounded offensive game to punish mismatches on switches), and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some centerless looks around Durant at times as well.

Sub-Plots

• Paul George: Look, if it feels like I’m mentioning this a lot, it’s because it’s pretty important. I have a really hard time imagining a scenario where the Clippers win 4 out of 7 games against this Suns team without Paul George. But do I think they can win 1 out of 2 or 2 out of 4 without him, and then close things out when he returns? Yeah, I can buy that. We’re going to be anxiously awaiting updates every day until either he’s back in the lineup or the Clippers are eliminated. It should be obvious that the sooner he returns, the more likely the Clippers are to advance–and that every win they can get without him helps extend the series and keep that hope alive.
• The Grift Zone: One way that the Clippers can win a game without Paul George? His natural replacement (even if he’s coming off the bench instead of starting in Paul’s spot), Norman Powell. Norm has hit the 20-point threshold in 20 of the 60 games he’s played in this season, and the Clippers are going to need his volume and efficiency to make up for the void left by George. But most importantly, they need his most unique skill on this roster: the grift. Norm creates more frivolous fouls against defenders than every other Clipper put together, and leads the Clippers’ rotation in free throws attempted per 36 minutes. The Suns allow the 3rd-most FTA/game in the NBA and themselves attempt the 4th-fewest. The Clippers will almost certainly shoot a lower FG% than the Suns in this series. Bombing threes can help offset that. Games that they win might also need double-digit advantages from the stripe. One more bonus: if the grift can impact Phoenix’s core 4 with foul trouble, it will level the talent disparity between the two teams. Keep an eye on Russell Westbrook’s offensive aggression here too, along with Terance Mann’s mix of downhill drives and ability to solicit illegal contact while defending.
• The 5th Guy: I said that I’d come back to Josh Okogie, and here we are: the 5th guy on the floor for Phoenix. The other 4 Suns starters make over $130 million–Okogie makes $1.8. Yet he’s earned this spot, first by being a fantastic defender this season, but also by mitigating some of the offensive damage by improving his shot from earlier in his career. Okogie shoots 33.5% from deep on the year, and that mark isn’t better in the corner (31.9%, with nearly half of his attempts coming from there). The Clippers will help liberally off of him in their attempt to contain Phoenix’s other guys. The ball will come out to Okogie. He won’t be shy about shooting when open, and he’s had multiple games this year where the shot has fallen, which will send the Clippers’ defense into a scramble. There have also been some really rough games, in which case we could see Monty Williams forced to pull his best defensive option against Kawhi Leonard. But Okogie’s impact isn’t going to be a one-dimensional, make-or-miss thing. The Clippers absolutely have to balance helping off of him with keeping track of him, because he will cut opportunistically and Chris Paul will find him for free dunks when he does. He’s also a fantastic offensive rebounding wing who will impact the series on the glass if the Clippers can’t locate and get a body on him when shots go up. Williams does have better shooting options for this role, but all of them would result in life being easier for Kawhi Leonard on the other end.

• The Finale: I don’t really know how to properly contextualize the Clippers’ rather embarrassing barely-win against Phoenix’s mostly-third-string lineup on the last day of the regular season, in what was a must-win game for LA and a throwaway game for the Suns. It feels worth addressing, but it doesn’t feel like the most meaningful data point. It was a day with weird energy, weird scenarios, weird delays, scoreboard-watching, and mixed motivations. I don’t want to pretend it didn’t happen, but I also don’t think it tells us anything about this series.
• Possessions: The Suns were a top-10 offensive rebounding team this season, but a bottom-10 defensive rebounding team. The Clippers were the opposite–top-10 on the defensive glass, bottom-10 on the offensive glass. How meaningful are those season-long stats when we consider that the Suns sample barely includes their new giant, good rebounding wing in Durant and the Clippers’ sample only includes half of a season of Kawhi Leonard and 20 games of one of the best rebounding guards in history in Russell Westbrook? Hard to say. But as I mentioned above, it seems obvious to me that the Suns will have a more efficient halfcourt offense in this series than the Clippers. LAC has to mitigate that damage, but they also have to win on the margins. Scoring in transition, getting more free throws, and making more threes obviously all help. But winning the possession volume battle via rebounding and turnovers will go a long way in leveling the halfcourt battle. The Clippers lost games early in the year where they outshot their opponents but took 20 fewer attempts because of turnovers and offensive rebounds. Winning games in this series is going to require flipping that script and exploiting those margins to take more shots than their opponents.
• Rotations: Playoff depth is somewhere between overrated and essential. On the one hand, a much higher share of playing time and touches goes to a shorter rotation comprised of teams’ best players, meaning quality role players on the bench have a smaller impact than in the regular season. On the other hand, lots of teams meet their demise because in-series adjustments call for them to need another ball-handler, or perimeter defender, or wing shooter, or rim protector, and they simply don’t have a competent guy in that mold on their bench. Playoff rotations are traditionally 8 or 9 men, but both of these teams have guys in spots 10, 11, and 12 who could be trusted by their coaches for situational use. We could see a bit of role player chess as this series goes on.

• KD and Russ: I gotta be honest, this isn’t a subplot that I care a ton about, but it’s going to be everywhere in the coverage of this series. Both players were gracious in their comments about each other as former teammates playing against each other for the first time in the playoffs. I think it’s fair to say that despite that positivity, Russell Westbrook will approach this matchup with a bit of an edge. Channeling that appropriately could mean we see the best version of him on defense, which the Clippers really need in this matchup, as well as bringing a tone-setting energy for the rest of the team to match. Getting caught up in it could end up being a distraction if he lets wanting to prove a point hurt his decision-making on offense. Either way, I don’t think this dynamic will be series-defining or as important as the national media will make it out to be.
• Matchups: Okogie guarding Kawhi is a no-brainer. Expect everything else to get weird. Do the Clippers put Batum on Ayton and Zu on Okogie so that they can comfortably switch screens and let Zu play free safety? How do they balance Kawhi’s defensive duties early in games with his offensive workload? Will he guard Booker or Durant down the stretch of games? Will Durant guard Kawhi down the stretch so that Monty can put another shooter on the floor? Can Chris Paul handle guarding Russell Westbrook’s athleticism and phsyicality at this stage in their careers? (And since that one is probably no, how will Monty hide CP3 on Gordon/Batum, and how aggressively will the Clippers pursue Chris on switches?) The Clippers will need large doses of Norman Powell on offense in this series, but he’s been a severe liability on defense this season, and they’ll need to find opportunities to hide him. Bones Hyland has been fantastic in recent weeks and even competed on defense, but how many units can you realistically get away with Bones and Norm playing together against this Suns attack? Marcus Morris typically does well against slower, stronger players, meaning that if he’s healthy and moving well he could be a switchable smallball 5 option off the bench instead of Plumlee, who has been a disaster on defense lately. Robert Covington can help a lot on the backline but struggles on-ball and could be miscast in a role where he’s asked to handle KD for a shift. Again, I imagine we’ll see a lot of different iterations of role player chess.
• Game 1: For some reason, I can’t shake the feeling that game 1 could decide this series. Obviously, every game is important in a best-of-7. But it will be 10 days since Phoenix’s starters’ last game, which was an exhibition against a Denver team with no starters playing. Their last game against a competitive opponent was April 2nd against Oklahoma City. As mentioned above, they haven’t been tested. They’ll be rusty. And they’ll probably only get better as the series goes on. If the Clippers steal game 1 on the road, they give themselves a desperately-needed margin for error as they await Paul George’s return. A little hope might also go a long way for a team that is overmatched on paper and aware of their underdog status. I think a game 1 win for the Clippers makes this series a coin flip, pending George’s health. A game 1 loss doesn’t end the series, but it makes the path forward very hard.

Clippers vs Suns Series Prediction: Suns in 6

Ultimately, I think there is a talent gulf in this series that would require the Clippers to be at their best and firing on all cylinders to overcome. But in addition to missing their second best player for an unknown portion of the series, this just doesn’t feel like a team that ended the season firing on all cylinders and knowing who they are and how to make each other better. As a group, they really aren’t that much more experienced and developed together than the Durant Suns. I do think that the Clippers will challenge Phoenix. Ty Lue will adjust–maybe even overadjust, at times–to take away what is working and make them win in different ways. I can see a team, even one as talented as Phoenix, stumbling as they figure out how to respond to that in real time considering how few meaningful, competitive reps they have together. And I think that the Clippers have potential avenues to winning this series, involving a mix of opportunism and luck early coupled with a timely return to the court for George. But overall, talent is king in the NBA, and the Suns have the kind of advantage in available star power that is rarely overcome over the course of a 7-game series.

Coverage

Check out the 213Hoops series prediction staff roundtable!
Hate read Robert Flom’s Q&A with a homertastic Suns blogger friend!
Subscribe to The Lob, The Jam, The Podcast on all platforms for:
1) A special episode of The Lob, The Jam, The Pod with Suns reporter Gerald Bourguet of PHNX Sports and Clippers reporter Tomer Azarly of ClutchPoints.
2) A series preview with 213Hoops’ Shapan Debnath, Robert Flom, and Cole Huff.
3) A game 1 preview with 213Hoops’ Shapan Debnath, Justin Wilson, and Jamal Christopher.
4) Postgame pods for every Clippers playoff game, and special off-day analysis podcasts with guests.
Subscribe to the Clips N’ Dip Podcast on all platforms for pre-series analysis and ongoing updates from Adam Auslund, Charles Mockler, and Will Updyke.
Listen in to my appearance on the PHNX Suns podcast previewing this series (I’m the second guest, Forbes NBA columnist Shane Young is the first half of the episode).
Take a look at Suns blogger Dave King’s series preview, including a Q&A with me on the Clippers’ strengths and weaknesses.

213Hoops is an independently owned and operated L.A. Clippers blog by Clippers fans, for Clippers fans. If you enjoy our content, please consider subscribing to our Patreon. Subscriptions start at $1 a month and support from readers like you goes a long way towards helping us keep 213Hoops sustainable, growing, and thriving.

2023 NBA Playoffs Series Preview: LA Clippers Face Phoenix Suns in First Round
Lucas Hann

Without their stars and their starting center, the Clippers competed with the NBA-leading Phoenix Suns for most of four quarters before finally falling, 106-89. Read on for this recap of the Clippers closer-for-longer-than-expected loss to the Suns.

Summary

A horrid offense game; Marcus Morris Sr. does what he can; Chris Paul shuts the door; missing Zubac; and more. Here’s what you need to know:

— No one could make a shot.

OK, that’s not true. Cameron Johnson could. He led the winning squad with 24 points. He was the only player to take more than 10 shots and make more than half.

Marcus Morris Sr. could too. He led all scorers with 26 points. More on him later.

It was most everyone else who couldn’t shoot. The Phoenix Suns, the team with the best record in the NBA, made good on just 41% of their field goals and fewer than a third of their three-pointers.

The Clippers made just 6 threes and 36% of their overall shot attempts and still trailed by as little as 3 in the fourth quarter. It was that kind of game.

That the Clippers remained within spitting distance for more than 40 minutes says something about the resilience of the Clippers, but it says more about the Suns’ temporary impotence. Phoenix turned it over just 9 times and heaved up 21 more field goals than the outmatched Clippers. They had chances in every quarter to run away with the game. They just couldn’t make it happen until crunch time.

And unlike the Clippers, the Suns were able to put their two best players on the floor tonight. But Chris Paul scored just 14 points on 5-for-14 shooting. (He also recorded a triple-double; we’ll cover that in a moment.) Devin Booker’s shot was crooked all night. He eked out 11 points on 22 attempts, clanking all 7 of his threes. He never looked comfortable.

Neither did the Clippers for long stretches of this one. After a surprising early lead, they went mute, once going scoreless for 10 minutes of game time. The Suns forgot how to shoot but fully remembered how to defend, even without starting center Deandre Ayton.

Mikal Bridges clamped down on Reggie Jackson and Eric Bledsoe on the perimeter. The Clippers earned just 28 points in the paint, and that was only after a relatively prolific burst in the second half. The Clippers couldn’t get to the cup and rarely reached it from the perimeter. They had few offensive answers.

— Marcus Morris Sr. was one of those answers. In fact, for three quarters, he looked like the only answer. The Clippers’ offense consisted of running into walls before throwing it to Morris for a contested jumper.

Thankfully, Morris delivered, bailing out the Clippers on a number of possessions. He also boosted his game-high in scoring with 7 free throws made on 7 attempts. Without the stalwart Jae Crowder, the Suns struggled with Morris’ physicality. Morris did his part.

— It took a while, but Chris Paul finally restored order. After the Suns squandered countless opportunities to force the Clippers into an early capitulation, Paul locked in for a trademark fourth quarter.

The Point God recorded 5 of his 10 assists in the final frame, circumventing his team’s errant touch by finding opportunistic cutters. He also added 4 rebounds down the stretch, 2 on the offensive end, sealing Clippers’ possessions while extending his own. Paul didn’t submit a wire-to-wire masterwork but a a specific and timely one.

— Sure, we would love to have had Kawhi Leonard and Paul George available for this one, but with both out with long- and medium-term injuries respectively, rueing their absence seems futile.

Ivica Zubac’s COVID-induced absence was the frustrating one. With their starting center healthy and available, the Clippers might actually have reached, and crested, the summit.

First, Zubac could’ve done something about the defensive boards. The Suns pulled down 21 rebounds on the Clippers’ glass. Jalen Smith, starting for the missing Ayton, grabbed 8 of them. When the Suns are missing, you don’t want to give them a chance to shoot again.

Second, he might’ve been a factor on the Suns’ glass. The Clippers needed every offensive tool they could muster. They managed a respectable 8 offensive rebounds, but against a smaller-than-usual Suns squad, it’s easy to think big Zu could’ve had a hearty meal.

–Brandon Boston Jr. may have been the Clippers’ second-most reliable shot creator. He scored 10 in 20 minutes. He finds that midrange jumper almost every time he wants it.

Amir Coffey scored just 8 but his 27 minutes earned illustrate his impact. The Clippers finally unlocked some transition chances as they closed the gap in the early fourth, and it was mostly Coffey finishing them.

Justise Winslow put in good work too. Ignore his empty scoring numbers. He was serviceable as the last line of defense and his playmaking was valuable.

Nic Batum returned tonight and helped steady the reserve unit. The bench’s play was a big reason there were only two real minutes of garbage time. The game was close to being over in both the second and third quarters.

Thanks for reading this game recap of the Clippers’ loss to the Suns. Stay on the lookout for more game coverage and analysis and an episode of TLTJTP soon.

213Hoops is an independently owned and operated L.A. Clippers blog by Clippers fans, for Clippers fans. If you enjoy our content, please consider subscribing to our Patreon. Subscriptions start at $1 a month and support from readers like you goes a long way towards helping us keep 213Hoops sustainable, growing, and thriving.

Clippers vs. Suns Recap: Ice Cold in the Desert
Thomas Wood

The Clippers made the game tight at the end, but Phoenix had one of their best shooting nights of the season and late-game heroics from Devin Booker helped the Suns beat the Clippers 117-115 in each team’s third bubble game.

While the Suns entered the game in 13th place in the Western Conference at 28-39, informed observers know that Phoenix is certainly capable of winning any given game–as evidenced by wins against the Clippers and Milwaukee Bucks before the season was suspended in March. I noted in yesterday’s game preview that the Suns have a formula for their big wins:

Despite being far down in the standings, the Suns won’t be helpless against LA–they beat the Clippers 130-122 during the regular season in an October game that feels like a lifetime ago. The Clippers were without Paul George in that one, but the Suns were without Ayton and Rubio, and the formula doesn’t feel impossible to repeat: a 30-point night for Booker with the team making 17 threes at 39.5% (well above their averages of 11.2 and 35.3%, but certainly a repeatable performance).

It was a similar formula that gave the Suns their other signature win, this one in March over the Milwaukee Bucks: 36 points for Booker, and 19 made threes for the team at 44.2%. When the 28-39 Suns make better than one-third of their threes, they are 21-21. When they make one-third or fewer, they’re 7-18. While the Suns certainly miss Kelly Oubre, the extra minutes for sharpshooter Cam Johnson help the team’s floor spacing.

It isn’t exactly revolutionary analysis: teams that make more shots win more often. But defending the three-point line is crucial for the Clippers as they face the Phoenix Suns.

The Suns didn’t just follow that formula tonight against the Clippers–they perfected it. Devin Booker finished with an efficient 35 points, and the Suns shot a stellar 53% from three, making 17 of their 32 attempts. That’s good for their third-best 3PT% of the season, and tied for their fourth-most makes in a night… with their other 17-make outing coming in their October, the first time Booker and the Suns beat the Clippers.

Interestingly, the Suns’ 17 made threes all came in the first three quarters–they were 0-6 in the final frame from beyond the arc as the Clippers climbed back into the game. The downpour being as condensed as it was made building momentum incredibly difficult for the Clippers, as each time they strung a few good possessions together, the Suns would seemingly always hit backbreaking threes to rebuild their lead.

LA weren’t playing their best for much of tonight’s game, but there were frequent stretches where they were clearly exerting effort to get easy looks in the paint offensively and fight their way back into the game. Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and Marcus Morris each had impressive spurts where they penetrated the Suns’ defense and created good looks or free throw opportunities, but the barrage of Phoenix threes kept them at arm’s length until the closing minutes of the game.

Finally, after a Clippers timeout with 3:19 to play, LA began to gain ground. Kawhi Leonard scored at the rim on consecutive possessions (the latter an offensive rebound put-back), and a Zubac put-back with 1:56 to play tied the game. That two of the Clippers’ three buckets in this spurt came from fighting on the offensive class is perhaps evidence of how nothing came easy tonight.

The teams traded buckets down the stretch, with Leonard showing a couple of tricks from his Finals MVP repertoire (including a friendly whistle that earned him free throws). The Clippers found themselves tied, on defense, with 32 seconds remaining–all but guaranteed another chance on offense. As the Suns looked for a Booker/Ayton pick-and-roll, the Clippers twice brought Ivica Zubac on hard hedges to trap Devin Booker, finally forcing the ball out of the young star’s hands and instead to Ricky Rubio, who missed a heavily contested floater over the outstretched arms of Kawhi Leonard.

Ivica Zubac collected the crucial defensive rebound with about 12 seconds left, but instead of using the Clippers’ remaining timeout to advance the ball and draw up a play to win the game, attempted an outlet pass to Paul George. Long-armed defensive forward Mikal Bridges deflected the pass, and Booker ended up with the ball. He drove left against Paul George, stopped 18 feet from the basket, pivoted away from Kawhi Leonard’s double team, and hit an epic fadeaway buzzer-beater over the tight contest from George.

Between the one of their best shooting nights of the season, Mikal Bridges’ timely defensive awareness, and heroics by Devin Booker, the Phoenix Suns beat the Clippers for the second time this season, 117-115.

Game Notes

• Beverley Injured: The Clippers continue to be without their full-strength starting point guard, who faced a minutes restriction in each of their first two bubble games and exited early tonight with left calf soreness, playing just 8 minutes. Doc Rivers said after the game: “I don’t think it’s bad, but we’re going to be very cautious, I can tell you that.” The top priority for Beverley is health in the playoffs, even if it hurts the Clippers in seeding play.
• Lou Williams Returns: Lou made his bubble debut today, finishing with 7 points, 6 assists, and 6 rebounds in 21 minutes. He also had 3 turnovers and missed both his three-point attempts, looking not totally sharp. It was definitely good that he got some run in today, as his presence in coming games will allow the Clippers to exercise caution with Beverley.
• Center Controversy: JaMychal Green’s spacing has been the Clippers’ best center option so far in the bubble, and he had another strong game tonight, with 10 points and 4 rebounds in 21 minutes. Ivica Zubac, on the other hand, had one of his best games of the season, with 18 points and 12 rebounds on 7-9 shooting. Zu also got the opportunity to close the game against Ayton, a rare chance to see him in crunch-time minutes. He played well, but that poor decision in the closing seconds will hang over an otherwise stellar night like a storm cloud. Joakim Noah was not involved in the Clippers’ rotation.
• Morris’ Revenge: Marcus Morris may have had his best game as a Clipper, finishing with 16 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 blocks in 36 minutes. He was particularly impressive and patient as the ball-handler in pick-and-roll situations, using his body to get good positioning and finish short floaters–plus a really nice lob to Zubac on a possession where his drive was overplayed. Morris famously has bad blood with the Suns, so hopefully the extra motivation helped him build momentum that can carry over into future games.

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Recap: Heroic Booker, Suns beat Clippers, 117-115
Lucas Hann