The NBA Finals didn’t even end three weeks ago, but as soon as the final horn sounded, preparations started for the 2020-2021 season. The Orlando bubble and the extremely late finish to the season meant that the 2021 season would be pushed back as well, but the question was by how much. At this late date, with November nearly here, the NBA start date remains unclear.
The NBA’s proposition seems simple enough: a 72 game season that starts on December 22 and ends sometime in early summer before the Tokyo Olympics in July. This would not only keep the league from conflicting with the media-hogging Olympics, but would allow star players to participate if they so desire. Ending in late June or early July would also allow the NBA to prepare for a return to its normal schedule in the 2021-2022 season. And, of course, the start date would enable the NBA to hold its signature Christmas games, a large source of revenue.
The players, however, led by NBPA executive director Michele Roberts, have pushed back on this. They view the Dec 22 start date as being far too close to the end of the Orlando bubble: the proposed training camp start of December 1 would be less than two months after the Finals wrapped up. Worries abound regarding lack of rest and the potential for injuries as a result. Instead, the players have proposed a start date of January 18, MLK Day, with a season that would be somewhat less than 72 games (66, maybe?).
The league’s argument comes to revenue. Per a recent report from Woj, the NBA projects the delay from a December 22 start to January 18 to cost anywhere from $500M to $1B, which is quite substantial. This is especially true considering that with COVID-19 still raging, it seems very hard to imagine that more than a handful of fans (if that) will be able to attend games for most of the season. Any loss of TV revenue on top of the gate revenue would be tough for the NBA, especially after last season’s revenue dipped substantially as well.
There are clear pros and cons to either side. On one hand, revenue loss on that front is legitimate, and would result in decreased player salaries for years to come. On the other, the NBA will ultimately be fine – it’s a massive institution, and can afford a couple seasons of reduced revenue. Conversely, the NBA can argue that nearly a third of the league hasn’t played since March, and that another 6 teams have been off since mid-August. Even for those teams who had deep playoff runs, the long break from the shutdown in mid-March to the Orlando bubble in late July should have afforded much more rest than usual.
Ultimately, while the players’ fears about starting the season too soon are present, the league’s argument regarding revenue will probably prove decisive. Add that to the fact that half the league (who didn’t play in the playoffs) are presumably very eager to get back out there, and I think the players’ resistance will eventually crumble.
Still, the NBA start date will be something to keep a close eye on in the coming days. If it’s December 22, then training camp and preseason are truly right around the corner. If it’s January, there will be a bit more time to focus on the draft and free agency.