In 2021/22, a bit more than 68% of his shots were jump shots. Last year, that increased to 77%. This season, it’s a bit more than 80%. What Harden has sacrificed are layups and drives. And that is what hurts both his shooting and playmaking efficiency: his true shooting efficiency compared to Nov-Jan numbers is down 3%, his offensive rating dropped 5 points (and his defensive rating also increased by 5). He is still shooting a respectable 36.8% from 3 since Feb 1 (down from 41.3%). But: he doesn’t have the amount of layups to make up for bad shooting nights, in a ,3-star system he doesn’t really have the shot and scoring volume to make up for poor defense (especially compared to Mann and Russ, if not Coffey), he doesn’t have the amount of drives to refrain from shooting and generate more assists RELIABLY and he doesn’t get the defense moving as much. Even if he does, it’s too often only two to three guys and late in the shot clock. That’s just not quality offense – or better phrased: not remotely to the degree he’s capable of. Even worse: he also cut out pick’n’roll actions largely.

He relies on his jump shot and so does the team in consequence. All this (and probably some additional details) are why I say change HAS to start with Harden, there’s no other way.

Oh, proportionately more jump shots also helps the other team rebounding, leads to way fewer putbacks and hustle opportunities, it plays a role in defensive transition. And it really, really hurts the energy of the team. It’s why I criticized LeBron heavily for adjusting to age in the same way. He can take plays off but stop taking ONLY jump shots and rely on them when you’re that much better at the rim (Bron) or better and more reliable at the rim (Harden).

Adam Silver’s best decision to boot Sterling from the owner ranks.

I’m no longer bitter at EB.

Broussard who actually likes the Clippers a lot mentioned today that we look like a team that doesn’t enjoy playing together. That was a pretty insightful observation to me.

For the Pels’ part, CJ McCollum is playing the best ball of his career. He’s making precise drives at the rim or to get to a midrange shot and gets a ton of paint touches on most possessions. His balance in the air on his shot is the best I’ve seen from him. He was the best overall player on the floor tonight. Zion is also tough to deal with. He was splitting Giannis/Lopez or Giannis/Portis double teams, finding the gaps and getting his shot off, often above outstreched hands. Herb Jones is a challenging defender to deal with. Valanciunas has his moments and is a credible post and pick n’ pop player. If Giannis and another big can’t stop him, he might not be stoppable if he gets the ball in his spots. I think pushing the pace to go right back at him and hitting a few 3s to where his 2 pt offense has less impact was really the only way Milwaukee slowed him down and played him off the court. However, if the Pels have a working margin late in games when the number of available possessions diminishes and points come at a premium, Zion is pretty close to an automatic bucket driving against any player with a running start. It made me feel more charitable to our defense against him.

I haven’t really thought of the Pels as a team that could make a real run to the conference finals or finals. Even tonight, they struggled to score points in a game in which they outplayed Milwaukee for almost the entire night. CJ McCollum playing at this level as a playmaker with a healthy Ingram (when he returns) and Zion is a formidable opponent.

Perhaps the bigger issue is the Bucks. I had initially thought Doc had them on the right track but after watching their last 2 games, I think he’s screwing it up. Giannis and Dame don’t play well together. Giannis’ 20 pt 3rd quarter came with Dame off the floor for Doc isn’t pushing a Dame/Giannis PnR; they don’t really get enough reps on it, and the lack of reps shows as they appear confused when an aggressive defenders attack that set. Dame’s stat line looked decent, but he really made no impact on the game and didn’t get Giannis nearly enough touches. Brook Lopez is an erratic player offensively without and I’m not sure if he’s really that good anymore. Doc is Doc and is in game management and rotations are always head scratching.