1) Lineups: Russ played alongside Kawhi, PG, RoCo and Zu to the tune of a +38.4 per 100 possessions. Then the Harden deal happened.

1st change: Harden instead of RoCo, Harden also clearly needed time to get into form and find his role: -21.8 per 100.

2nd change: Russ to the bench, playing most minutes alongside Harden, Norm, Kawhi and Theis, in quite a different offensive role: +34.8 per 100.

Other lineups vary from -40 to +64 per 100. Important here are: Kobe for Kawhi. +64.5 but very small sample size. Kobe for Harden: +11.9.

What’s missing is finding a good bench lineup with PG and Russ. Those exist but PJ Tucker is out of the rotation as of now. Also: Coffey ain’t included but all 3 lineups that have included both Coffey and Russ have won their (limited) minutes so far (+11 to +45 per 100).

2) Russ’ stats and advanced stats: Russ started the season hot on an unsustainable 51.6% from the field and 38.9% from 3. However unsustainable, he also clearly had better spacing (a vital factor for his playing style) before the trade (within his lineups) and was familiar with his teammates.

After the trade, he shot 41.8% from the field and 21.4% from 3 over the next 5 games. The slump continued after he went to the second unit: he shot 38.4% from the field and 13.3% from 3 over the next 8.

Now, I think he has worked himself out of the biggest slump, shooting 50% from the field and 38.5% from 3 over the last 6 games.

While there’s always variance involved with shooting numbers and luck with plusminus (officiating, 50/50 balls, shooting of both teams, lineups, playing harder trailing or sloppier leading), two things seem pretty obvious to me: Russ has not had continuity with his lineups nor his offensive role. Nonetheless, he has brought it defensively and led with energy and on the boards. His shooting numbers seem to get better on average after having some degree of continuity and familiarity with teammates on the second unit.

His rebounding percentages exceed career averages on both ends, his block and steal percentages are higher than in any of the last three seasons, his DBPM is a clear positive. What’s down is his assist rate and offensive production. The dip in scoring is proportionate to the dip in shooting numbers. The assist rate being down is in part explained by the Russ/Zu combo being inefficient and by the shooting of teammates dropping off, especially in his lineups. However, there’s also the part where Russ simply can be better which is passing more accurately and less predictably. By eye-test I’d say he still has a large part of the potential assists, passes that lead to fouls and passes teammates should convert at a higher rate. And while familiarity within lineups certainly plays a role, I don’t think Russ has passed the way he’s capable of. He won’t reach Harden’s level on bounce passes but Russ can be much more accurate and in control when it comes to kick-outs to open shooters.

All that to say: I’m confident Russ will trend up on offense and be steady on defense, especially if Ty Lue can find a standard second unit with Russ, PG (and Coffey). But he gotta do a better job as a playmaker/passer once that lineup is established in my opinion.

The Clippers need a good starting 4 to compete in the West. PG13 is unreliable in the playoffs for so many reasons: injuries, turnovers, choking. It’s also the best time to trade him while he’s expiring on the wrong side of 30.

On the Knicks: check their bench plusminus. They are kicking ass and they are only 4-11 from 3. We should strongly consider matching Zu with Hartenstein (because it’s unlikely he dominates Sims and Randle to the same degree that Hartenstein probably dominates Theis and Kobe). Mann’s gonna be fine vs Brunson in all likelihood and we should be able to win with the starters but Theis gotta take some of the Sims minutes or we’re in a world of trouble with the second unit I think. Backcourt matchup and wing is alright, frontcourt can’t be our regular rotation.

Assuming we remain intact, don’t think the Lakes are that much of a threat. Other teams are bigger scares (OKC, Nuggs, Wolves).

As for the Knicks, rooting for a double OT vs Suns–close so far so we’ll see.