The good news is that our great talent with regards to shooting and good efficiency is also confirmed. So there’s potential for a turnaround. The bad news is that we’re not remotely maximizing our talent.

It’s too late in the season to suddenly install a completely different offensive system, so…yea, I don’t think we’re just gonna magically suddenly turn into a smarr basketball team. I wouldn’t be surprised if we got bounced in round 1.

“I wish upon you ample doses of pain and suffering….Greatness comes from character, and character isn’t formed out of smart people—it’s formed out of people who suffered.”  – Jensen Huang, CEO and founder of Nvidia

1) We play pretty much the same (illogical) style, win or lose.
2) It’s even worse, we also rank dead last in passes per game, we’re bottom 3 in secondary assists, potential assists – while generating the second-most assists per pass made. Yes, the overdribbling keeps the ball in the hands of our best passers, therefore that latter stat. But it doesn’t get the defense moving much if we don’t drive and doesn’t generate the best shots. Even more so as we also suck in generating secondary assists and are often late in the shot clock.
3) The #1 reason why we lose imo/the biggest statistical difference between wins and losses: WE RELY ON ISO PULL-UP JUMP SHOTS. That might help you in crunch time but you don’t even get to crunch time in a lot of games playing that way. Even more so in the playoffs and if you don’t adjust your playing style. The data:

We take 26 pull-up shots per game in wins, 12 of which are 3s. In losses, it’s 27.5 and 12.6 respectively. In wins, we shoot 39.8% on pull-up 3s. In losses? 30.7% on high volume. Yuck! That’s the fault of our decision-makers, high-usage guys and coach, NOT the role-players. For comparison: we’re 41.4% on catch&shoot 3s in wins. In losses, we’re still a steady and passable 37%.

The number 1 guy responsible for this is Ty Lue. By players, it breaks down like this:

Kawhi takes the most pull-up shots and Harden takes by far the most pull-up 3s. But: Harden maintains really good shooting percentages in losses (37.9%) on pull-up 3s, it’s PG (14.5% worse on pull-up 3s in losses!), Kawhi (13.5% worse!) and Norm (20.7% worse!) who crater and all shoot below 30% from deep while the amount of pull-up shots for the 3 stars also increases.

Let’s see how involved others are and how many catch&shoot opportunities we create. Wins first:

PG 4.8 c&s 3s
Norm 3.0
Kawhi 2.7

These 3 guys all have an effective field goal percentage between 66.5 (Kawhi) and 71% (Norm) off the catch (in wins) which is amazing. They combine for 11.9 of those high-quality shots (2s+3s combined).

Harden, Coffey and Bones at another 5.4 of those, efg% 63.5-66.7%. Mann (50%) and Russ (47%) are barely passable, so is Theis who takes one 3 per game in wins (34.4%, 48.9% efg).

Losses:

PG 4.5 threes (39.3%)
Norm 4.3 (48.5%!)
Kawhi 2.8 (38.2%)

Great! They see more quality shots and from 3, they all deliver! From 2, Kawhi and PG struggle but only combine for one attempt per game, negligible.

Harden (39.6%) and Coffey (35.1%) deliver from deep, Theis overdelivers (46.7%) so far, like Norm. It’s Russ (14.6% at 2.1 attempts), Mann (28.6% on 1.8 attempts), PJ (23.5% at 1.5 attempts) and Bones (25% on 1.1) who impact spacing negatively in losses. What’s more: Mann’s catch& shoot opportunities are down a third in losses while playing slightly more minutes. Norm’s are up. Which seems the right way. It also seems as if it’s more important that Mann gets (and takes) those opportunities even when the first shots aren’t falling. Because apparently in losses we need all the spacing we can get and if Mann doesn’t take them (opponents gonna try to cover Norm anyway), more likely than not that those attempts go to Russ, PJ or we end up with a pull-up jump shot or desperate attempt late in the clock.

Mann needs a shooting rhythm. Volume shooters do get opportunities and do deliver off the catch in losses. Our struggles probably got more to do with defense, turnovers, how Russ is playing and first and foremost, the amount of pull-up shots that PG and Kawhi force when they’re off/tired/covered well. Those are my main takeaways from a look at the stats. As a positive surprise: our catch&shoot efficiency generally is there, in both wins and losses.