Do I think the Clips are gonna win? Not necessarily, BUT I do think they have a chance! Ultimately, it’s gonna come down to the role players shooting. If EJ, Nico, Roco, Sr (yes he will play), Norm & Mann can’t knock down their outside shots consistently, then the Clips will be lucky to get to a game 6. As great as Kawhi is, it’s gonna be tough for him to get anything going if the others aren’t helping. Gonna need Russ to be in constant attack mode, this applies to Mann & Norm also. Yes he’s probably gonna shoot more than some may want but they’re gonna need him to. The key is gonna be getting a majority of his shots near the paint. He’s also gonna have to take the 3s being given to him but without settling, something I think he’s been good at.

On the defense, I’m only concerned with Bones. It’s obvious that if he is going to be a part of the rotation, he’s going to have to hold his own on that end. I think he’s done a fairly good job since returning to the lineup, but every possession counts now. I’m not sure how much you can play him alongside Norm either but we’ll see.

Speaking of defense, I wanna see what putting Russ on DA, Kawhi on KD, Nico on cp, EJ on Book & Zu on Okogie looks like. I know this may sound ridiculous but hear me out.

We know everything starts with their PNR game, whether it’s with Book or cp handling. So, by having Russ on DA, you’re able to switch PNRs without issue, but most importantly, you’re trying to bait the suns into feeding DA in the post. Now, he clearly has a height advantage but NOTHING is gonna come easy against Russ in the post + you have Zu lurking. That’s why you put Zu on Okogie/Craig, you’re allowing him to help, something we’ve seen the Clips do. So now you’re making DA attempt a contested shot or kicking out to the suns worst shooter, I’ll take this all day over the other 3 getting a shot up. Where it gets tricky is if the suns counter by going with Shamet or Lee over the other 2 but then that’s a win for the Clips on the other end. Considering it’s gonna be harder to score consistently than defend, I’ll take the trade off. Another possible advantage is the cross matching issues it’ll cost the suns. It’ll allow Russ to get out & run without worrying about DA as much.

As for Kawhi, I know we want to limit his defensive load, so putting him on kd seems counterproductive, but this is about making the suns uncomfortable & making them adjust to you. I rather Kawhi defend one on one against kd than seeing him battling through screens & getting switched onto DA & banging down low with him. Outside of him resting on the 5th guy, putting him on kd, who’s more of an iso guy, is a better option.

Of course this sounds very intriguing, to me atleast, but I really think it can work. + you gotta go all out to get this game 1 & the Clips don’t have the luxury of waiting to adjust, especially with PGs availability being in question. It’s also not a bad way of trying to get DA into foul trouble. Getting him out of the game will be huge for the Clips, especially on offense.

All that to say, if the role players can knock down shots consistently, Clips in 6! (With or without PG)

That last 3-pt attempt by Brandon I. — Dort barely left him space to land.

Chicago-Toronto. I had picked Chicago, but they needed the help of DeRozan’s daughter and Zach LaVine’s shot making (sure would be nice to see him as a Clipper). Raptors got exposed as a team one designs in a lab but aren’t particular high level scorers or shot makers. They’re average and it takes better than average shot creation and shot making to win in playoff settings.

OKC-N.O. I had picked N.O., but give Shai credit. He’s so tough in half court sets. Ingram does a great job getting to a spot where he can get a shot over you, but Shai can get a defender to lean one way so he can step around them and get his shot off. But at the end of the day that game was won because Dort, who is a crappy shooter, had an other worldly shooting night and the refs let him play rough. I hadn’t thought too much about his hit on PG has being dirty, but after watching him play a number of games this year, I’m now tending to think it was. He’s constantly throwing his body into people and particularly the midsection and upper thigh area. It was pretty easy to see vs the long, lanky Ingram. Refs just let him get away with it when he should’ve been whistled for blocking fouls. Just because you don’t use your hands doesn’t mean you’re not committing fouls.