Where Russ really blew it though is not immediately running back when it’s the final seconds and then being out of position and fouling. Denver will go away from him come the postseason, he’s just too dangerous to play.

But the path is simple and clear: If the Clippers run the table, they will be no worse than the #6 seed, period.

They have to beat Dallas, Dallas, San Antonio, Houston, @SAC, @GSW. We have more talent than any of those teams and should run the table in crunch time. We have to navigate the Kawhi back to back scenario, but I think Kawhi plays on Friday v Dallas, sits Saturday v Dallas and will also sit vs San Antonio to be ready for Houston.

If we lose any of these games, we’re probably the #8 seed (maybe #7).

Now, for the upside: if we do run the table, we’ll finish at 50-32 and could get as high as the #3 seed. Let’s see the scenarios assuming a 50-32 record:

Houston is at 50-27 and is the #2 seed. They’d have to go 0-5 to finish in a tie with LAC and they have the tiebreaker. So, it’s basically a mathematical impossibility for LAC to overtake HOU.

Denver is the #3 seed with a 47-30 record. Their remaining 5 games: @GSW, IND, @SAC, MEM, @HOU. That’s a tough schedule. If Denver were to go 2-3, they’d finish at 49-33 and Clips would overtake them. Denver has not played well, going 5-7 over their last 12 games. They have some injury/load management issues and Russ has been a a walking Shakespearean tragedy. I also don’t think the supporting cast outside of the Big 4 plays defense well or can take ownership of a game. Jokic has to lift them all up on his shoulders. I could see them losing to GSW, IND, one of SAC or MEM and Houston. Jokic will need to put them on his back to secure that 3 seed.

LAL is 46-30 and is the #4 seed. They have been exposed of late. Luka is fat and is a traffic cone on defense. Lebron has struggled a bit in his return from injury but had a great game today vs GSW with 33-5-9. Still, he hasn’t been the defensive presence that he was pre-injury. Bench looks weak. Reaves is a stud. They play NO, @OKC, @OKC, @DAL, HOU, @POR. It’s very possible that the Lakers go 4-2 or 3-3. In a 3-3 scenario, they’d fall behind the Clippers.

GSW is 45-31, is rejuvenated with Steph back and is the #5 seed. Their schedule: DEN (SEGABABA), HOU, PHX, SAS, @POR, LAC. Tough schedule. If they lose 1 game, the Clips leapfrog them (LAC has the tiebreak). If they lose 2, they’re probably headed to the play in. I don’t quite believe in GSW being able to run the table because Jimmy Butler has been mid, Podziemski is talented but isn’t going to score like he did vs LAL in every game, and Kuminga hasn’t found himself.

Memphis is 45-32 and is the #6 seed. They’ve lost 7 of 10 but got a big win at the buzzer vis Miami. Their remaining schedule: @DET, @CHA, MINN, @DEN, DAL. It’s a moderately tough schedule, but Memphis will probably lose at least 1 if not 2 games. Even 1 loss would put them behind LAC (as we own the tiebreaker).

Minnesota is 45-32 and is the #7 seed. Their remaining schedule is soft: @PHILA, @Milwaukee, @Memphis, BKLYN, UTAH. They should go 3-2 at minimum, but 5-0 is very likely. If, however, they drop a game, the Clips would leapfrog them.

As you can see, the #6 seed is sitting there for the Clips, but it’s not far fetched to see them make the #3, #4 or #5 seed. Just win and stuff will fall into place.

I feel bad for Russ – he always seemed like a good dude (oversensitive, but good) – but I’m almost certain he’s about to pull more of the same type of braindead plays in the playoffs and it’s gonna cost Denver some games.

The Memphis crash was swift and shocking. Their schedule is tough and they seem like a play-in lock. Conversely, HOU seems immovable at #2, even after losing to LAL. But everything else has wrinkles, and depends on focus, effort, and mood.

Good discussion above about the DEN-MIN game. Things would have been a lot simpler if Russ hadn’t put on the MIN jersey, but DEN really had no business being in the game–and that says something about MIN. MIN has the easiest schedule, but they could hit a snag.

Kind of funny how the 3 bottom teams (GSW, MIN, LAC) had the easier schedules, while the 3 above (DEN, LAL, MEM) had a lot more real games to play. MEM fell off the cliff, of course. But DEN and LAL are still in the fight.

LAL got really good wins against MEM and HOU, but how do they look if they lose to GSW and then play (and lose) two games against OKC? That gets them in the 32-loss club.

But again, it’s simpler for the Clips if they beat GSW, who then goes to play DEN and HOU. What if DEN loses to GSW (32 losses), and then goes to play IND?

It’s all great and fascinating basketball, setting up playoff series that are going to be even better. Clips need to stay with it and keep going, let everything work itself out. End of the season road GSW game is a week from Sunday, and it’s all going to go quickly.

If LAL helps the Clips out and beats GSW tomorrow, the Clips will move into the #6 spot. Houston might also slip behind the Lakers, particularly if the Lakers can earn a split with OKC and beat Houston again.

Things are still pretty fluid, though I think Minnesota’s and Memphis’ trajectories are fairly clear.