Coming off another double-digit win, the Clippers head south from Orlando to Miami to try to get above .500. The Heat — the top seed in the east — are a much tougher opponent, so it is imperative that the Clippers find a rhythm early.
Game Information
Where: FTX Arena, Miami, Florida
When: 5:00 PM PT
How to Watch: Bally Sports SoCal
Projected Starting Lineups
Clippers: Reggie Jackson – Terance Mann – Amir Coffey – Nic Batum – Ivica Zubac
Heat: Gabe Vincent – Duncan Robinson – Jimmy Butler – P.J. Tucker – Bam Adebayo
Injuries
Clippers: Kawhi Leonard Out (knee), Paul George Out (elbow), Marcus Morris Out (personal), Jason Preston Out (foot), Keon Johnson Out (G-League)
Heat: Jimmy Butler Questionable (toe), Kyle Lowry Out (personal reasons), Markieff Morris Out (return to competition reconditioning), Chris Silva Out (ineligible) and KZ Okpala Out (wrist)
The Big Picture
It has not always been pretty, but the Clippers are learning how to scrap their way through this road trip and find unexpected wins on this brutal road trip. But if you can get by the rollercoaster nature of the wins, the formula does seem sustainable:
- During this road trip, Amir Coffey has averaged 14 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 2 assists on 44% FG% and 34% 3P%. For as surprising Amir’s rise has been, these are not flukey numbers.
- Luke Kennard was the hero of the Clippers’ historic win in DC, hitting five threes, including seven points in the final 20 seconds. Again, though, he’s shooting 42.4% from deep on the road trip, which is actually 1.4% lower than his season 3P% (43.9%).
- Finally, looking at the team as a whole, the Clippers are not vastly outperforming their season statistics on this trip. They have been 1% better from the field (2.8% better from three), only averaging 1.6 more assists, 2.6 more rebounds, and 1.4 fewer assists.
In sum, have the Clippers been playing better during this road trip? Slightly. Are they outperforming expectations? Absolutely. But is it a fluke? Not really—the comebacks are pretty wild, but the Clippers are not having an out-of-body experience. If the Clippers continue to play smarter and with their usual grit, this game in Miami is within reach.
The Antagonist
To beat the Heat, though, the Clippers will have to play above their season averages. Jimmy Butler will be the best player on the floor, and Bam Adebayo will probably be second. The Heat, along with having the best record in the eastern conference, have the second best home court record in the league (17-5).
Strategically, of all of the games on this road trip, this is the game for which the Clippers have the least reason to chase. As Lucas and the crew on TLTJTP have discussed, the Hornets and Pacers games are much more winnable, so playing our limited roster significant minutes to try and mount another underdog-win in Miami would jeopardize the end of the trip. (Lucas even flirted with punting this game and sending our starters straight to Charlotte.)
Notes
Clippers vs. Heat, 2021: Exactly a year ago, the Clippers beat the Heat on the road with a short-handed roster. Paul George and Kawhi Leonard were both out, but Nico Batum, Reggie Jackson, Lou Williams, and Marcus Morris, Sr. combined for 67 points to take a 109-105 victory. That was a huge win for last year’s “second tier” of the roster. It would be great to see history repeat itself. They also beat them in February behind a huge Morris performance.
Justise Winslow returns to Miami: Justise played 23 minutes in both of the Clippers’ last two games, putting up a +11 against the Magic and +9 in DC. He’s still not scoring much, but he’s been a welcome jolt of energy on defense and in transition. Serge Ibaka, on the other hand, has seen his minutes drop to 6 and 4 over the last two games. With the trade deadline approaching and the need to clear a roster spot for Amir, the Clippers will have to make some decisions. And this development might be a hint about what they’re thinking.
That does it for our preview of this Clippers-Heat match up. Stay tuned for a recap after the game!