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Clippers Can Prioritize Flexibility Over Free Agents

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Lost in recent discussions of a looming trade or the best available free agents is a third path: the Clippers can prioritize flexibility this week, leaving themselves with avenues to access room under the hard cap to add salary in a deal at the trade deadline or sign rest-of-season contracts. There’s no guarantee that desired upgrades will become available mid-season, but if the Clippers are uninspired by their remaining options in free agency it would make sense to wait and keep money open for potential later moves.

The Hard Cap

The decision to use the non-taxpayer mid-level exception on Serge Ibaka effectively hard caps the Clippers, meaning that at no point can their team salary for next season exceed $138,928,900. For now, while Ibaka remains technically unsigned, the team is able to go over that threshold if necessary–but they’d have to get back under it in order to sign him, and stay under it from that point on.

If my projections–which include a rookie minimum deal for Daniel Oturu, a veteran’s minimum deal for Patrick Patterson, the release of Joakim Noah’s non-guaranteed deal, the full MLE for Ibaka, and a 4-year deal for Marcus Morris that would pay him exactly the reported $64M with maximum annual raises–are correct, then the Clippers have about $5.2M of effective wiggle room underneath the hard cap for 12 players. If you consider Ky Bowman likely to make the roster, they have just under $3.8M–though they can cut him at any time, even after the season begins.

While Bowman’s salary is $1,445,697, he counts as $1,620,564 against the hard cap.

Some notes on the hard cap:

The Veteran’s Minimum

As discussed above, the veteran’s minimum means that all free agents (not draft picks) signed to one-year minimum deals have a cap hit of $1.62M. In terms of actual salary, players make more or less based on their years of experience (a full table is available on Larry Coon’s website). For example, Patrick Patterson, who has over 10 years of NBA experience, will make $2,564,793 next season, but only count as $1,620,564 against the Clippers’ hard cap (the difference is paid by the league, not the team).

Note that this only applies to one-year deals. The Lakers recently signed Marc Gasol to a minimum deal, but a second guaranteed season was added to his contract. That increased his hard cap hit to the higher $2.6M number, forcing the Lakers to trade a second-round pick in a money-saving deal where they dumped JaVale McGee’s contract. Given the Clippers’ limited hard cap wiggle room, this has to be considered carefully on a player-by-player basis. If Glenn Robinson III, one of the better remaining free agents, demanded a second-year player option if he were to accept a minimum deal, his cap hit would be $2,028,594 instead of $1,620,564 due to his 6 years of NBA experience. That extra $400k is certainly affordable within the Clippers’ wiggle room if they choose to sign Robinson, but it’s an important factor.

This creates an advantage for signing younger players–potentially extending team control. Take, for example, new Clipper Ky Bowman. Because Bowman only has one year of NBA experience, there’s no difference between his hard cap hit on a one-year minimum deal and a two-year minimum deal. The Clippers can give him the second season without any repercussions–and if they like him enough that he sticks around for both years, he’ll even be eligible for restricted free agency. Derrick Walton Jr., who has two years of NBA experience, would also have the same cap hit on a one-year minimum deal as on a two-year minimum deal. But a slightly more experienced depth point guard, like Shabazz Napier, who has 6 years of NBA experience, adding a second season would cost the team $400k.

Non-Guarantees, 10-Days, Two-Ways, Rest-of-Season Deals, and the Bi-Annual Exception

If the Clippers choose to conserve as much of their $5.2M in wiggle room for mid-season transactions as possible, they can do so through a variety of mechanisms. We’ve already seen them utilize a non-guaranteed deal for Bowman, and if they do indeed choose this avenue I doubt he’ll be the only one. They also have two two-way players, and later in the season can sign 10-day contracts and rest-of-season deals to save money against the hard cap.

A Scenario

Okay, let’s put what we’ve learned into action. First, the Clippers cut Joakim Noah. Then, they wait for Charlotte to waive Nicolas Batum (I’m guessing Batum is their priority over free agents Glenn Robinson III and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, based on the fact that they haven’t moved on those guys yet) and sign him to a fully guaranteed veteran’s minimum contract to be their backup small forward. They invite a number of players on summer contracts to training camp, but Ky Bowman wins the 14th roster spot. Spot 15 stays open heading into the season.

On opening night, for 14 players, you have $1,996,645 in room underneath the hard cap. Let’s say that, whether it’s Fitts or a different wing or a player at a different position, the Clippers use a series of short-term minimum deals for players to provide depth support for injuries or load management–20 days in total. Then, when the league switches over from non-guaranteed deals to 10-days on February 27th, they use two 10-day deals to fill the 15th spot while the buyout market materializes. Ky Bowman is kept past February 27th, allowing his contract to become fully guaranteed, but traded with cash before the deadline, removing his $1.6M hard cap hit.

The Clippers would have now spent around $440k on the rotating 15th man, but saved the $1.6M on Bowman’s deal. They enter the deadline/buyout market with 2 open roster spots and $3,177,209 in hard cap wiggle room. By the deadline, the Clippers have assessed their point guard position and decided they want to go after Oklahoma City’s George Hill (clearly, Bowman didn’t perform well enough for the team to feel confident with his abilities in a playoff setting, as they traded him). They can swap Lou Williams and future 2nds for Hill, adding $1,590,602 to their team salary. Williams stays on the team for most of the season, helping them with his regular-season scoring abilities, but Hill comes in at the deadline as a more steady, defensive-minded alternative to Patrick Beverley for the playoffs. Now, they enter buyout season with $1,586,607 in wiggle room and two open roster spots.

Typically, a player has to clear waivers with his original team by March 1st to be playoff-eligible for a new team–this year, that date is April 9th. The aforementioned ten-day contracts can help the Clippers bridge the gap between the trade deadline and April 9th without going more than 2 weeks with fewer than 14 players on the roster. If the Clippers use their BAE on April 9th, they would have that player for 38 regular-season days, resulting in a cap hit of $942,973. The remaining roster spot and $643,634 remaining under the hard cap is the perfect amount for the Clippers to sign a second player on the buyout market to a rest-of-season minimum deal in their 15th spot. If no such target emerges, they can convert Coffey’s contract to a multi-year non-guaranteed minimum in the slot.

Overall, it’s unclear if all the hand-wringing about the hard cap is worth it. Will a player that comes available in March or April be significantly better than the fringe free agents who remain available now? It’s possible, but certainly not guaranteed. Last season, the Clippers’ buyout season prize was Reggie Jackson. I’m unconvinced that he helps you more than Shabazz Napier, who you can get right now for a full-season minimum deal without worrying about the uncertainty of player availability mid-season or onboarding a new player without training camp. But as the Clippers continue to drag their feet on filling out the roster, seemingly waiting for something, it becomes increasingly likely that what they’re really waiting for is the trade deadline.

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