& let’s be honest, almost every possible trade that could make this team better would be a heist

I would re-trade Richardson for sure. Otherwise he’s going to opt out next summer and get more money and a starting role as a second-tier free agent in a huge money off-season. He’s a much more reasonable centerpiece for the Clippers to pursue a guy like Jrue Holiday than anyone they currently have on their roster.

That said, I really can’t imagine Philly trading Richardson for a Lou-based package. It would be a heist.

Lou & Mann/Fi for Josh Richardson is something I’d look into though.. Question is, would Philly do it?? with Doc there & Elton having played with Lou (I believe), I could see them doing it

http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=t42h5d8

Lou OFF, Kawhi ON, PG ON: -42, 144 minutes
Lou OFF, Kawhi ON, PG ON, Trez OFF: -30, 119 minutes

as opposed to these;

Lou ON, Kawhi ON, PG ON: + 14, 67 minutes
Lou ON, Kawhi ON, PG ON, Trez OFF: +35, 43 minutes

(Smaller sample of minutes though, and thats without looking at the numbers with the other guards)

Its also interesting that Kawhi and Trezz in lineups with or without Lou in that series don’t really seem to mix at all.

As for Lou, I think he may have seen himself out over the magic city thing. While it wouldn’t usually be a huge deal, given what was at stake, the circumstance, and his importance to the team I think as a long time pro he should have known better. And I think privately The Clippers were not happy with it at all. And thats unfortunate, because I think as fans we all (or mostly) have a lot of love for Lou.

vs DAL:
LAC DRTG w/ Lou ON: 120.0 (163 minutes)
LAC DRTG w/ Lou OFF: 96.8 (130 minutes)
LAC DRTG w/ Lou ON, Trez ON: 133.9 (82 minutes)
LAC DRTG w/ Lou ON, Trez OFF: 103.9 (81 minutes)

Defense is amazing with Lou off, good with Lou on without Trez, bad with Lou on in general, horrible with Lou and Trez both on. The team isn’t better defensively with Lou on the floor but they are still very good (holding Dallas about 10 points per 100 possessions under their season average) when he plays without Trez. And he provides a big boost offensively:

LAC ORTG w/ Lou ON: 123.1 (163 minutes)
LAC ORTG w/ Lou OFF: 114.5 (130 minutes)
LAC ORTG w/ Lou ON, Trez ON: 113.3 (82 minutes)
LAC ORTG w/ Lou ON, Trez OFF: 130.9 (81 minutes)

In total, Clips win the series by 58, win the 163 Lou minutes by 11, win the 130 non-Lou minutes by 47, lose the 82 Lou + Trez minutes by 37, and win the 81 Lou w/o Trez minutes by 48.

vs GSW (keep in mind LAC lost this series with several blowouts so everyone’s #s are way worse here, and the two-man data is less reliable because the other positions are less “constant” than we can assume in 2020 with Kawhi/PG/Morris)
LAC DRTG w/ Lou ON: 127.5 (176 minutes)
LAC DRTG w/ Lou OFF: 105.8 (112 minutes)
LAC DRTG w/ Lou ON, Trez ON: 130.9 (139 minutes)
LAC DRTG w/ Lou ON, Trez OFF: 112.6 (just 37 minutes)

Again, better without Lou than with him but not significantly until Trez enters the equation. With Lou as LAC’s top offensive option and the Warriors D keyed in on him, he doesn’t provide the same kind of boost here:

LAC ORTG w/ Lou ON: 108.5 (176 minutes)
LAC ORTG w/ Lou OFF: 112.3 (112 minutes)
LAC ORTG w/ Lou ON, Trez ON: 103.6 (139 minutes)
LAC ORTG w/ Lou ON, Trez OFF: 120.7 (37 minutes).

In total, Clips lose the series by 59, lose the 176 Lou minutes by 69, win the 112 non-Lou minutes by 10, lose the 139 Lou + Trez minutes by 76, and win the 37 Lou w/o Trez minutes by 7.

You are clearly better than I’m to find those. My comments reflects what I saw on the field.

You’d actually like Sato more in a bench pairing with Lou Williams (he’s really a rotation guy, not a starter) than replacing him. He’s got the size to cover for Lou in cross-matches, he’s a smart secondary player offensively who will keep the offense flowing without taking too many shots/touches away from Lou. But if you put Sato in Pat Bev’s role, you’re gonna miss Pat’s shooting and point of attack defense. If you put Sato in Lou’s role, you’re gonna miss Lou’s firepower. Either option makes the team worse. Satoransky has been heavily criticized for inconsistency with Chicago. That’s like 4 steps down in competitiveness from LAC.

Thad Young: A straight-up Trez S&T for Young isn’t financially workable. Trez’s outgoing salary is going to be the greater of 6M or 50% of his new salary. His incoming salary is his new salary. I’m not sure how much we’re imagining Chicago giving Trez, but the Clippers would need to send out $10,756,000 to bring in Young’s $13.5M.

Chicago won’t pay Trez the required 21.6M/year for LAC’s outgoing salary to cross that threshold, and even if they did, now they wouldn’t be sending enough money out to bring in Trez’s new salary.

Talking more realistic Trez price points, LAC could S&T Trez at 12M/yr (so 6M outgoing) to Chicago in addition to McGruder, and afford to bring back Young. As long as Chicago has their books in order (i.e., they avoid the tax, which they should be able to do), Young’s outgoing $13,565,000 would be enough to bring in Trez at 12M + Rodney at 5.2M.

The trick with any hypothetical sign-and-trade is that nobody has any control over what Harrell will do in free agency. Not only do the Clippers and Bulls both have to agree to the terms of this deal, but Harrell has to pick the Bulls over any/every other team making him offers. We have no idea if either side is even interested in the other at this point.

The last snare rests in Thad Young’s value. If he has positive trade value, the Bulls probably wouldn’t be willing to relinquish him in a sign-and-trade. They’d have to view him as a negative or marginal piece to be willing/eager to dump him in a sign-and-trade. He’s 32, he’s coming off the bench for them, and he’s not only due $13.5M next season, but $14M the year after. It’s possible. The Bulls’ prior regime was shopping Thad in hopes of getting a prospect or pick back for him. It’s possible that with Karnisovas and Donovan now presumably taking control, they would rather be free of a cumbersome contract for an old backup and get a fresh start with a FA they chose–but they need to choose to pursue Trez.

Montrezl Harrell: clearly failed the eye test, horrible individual performances, advanced data suggest he killed the team whenever he was on the floor. Definitely was exploited in the playoffs. All 3 series – GSW last year, Dallas and Denver this year – the numbers show that Trez’s presence significantly hurt the team on both ends.

Lou Williams: went ice cold on good looks (missing layups and threes!), poor individual performances but the eye test suggests he was getting his looks, just missing. Advanced data shows that despite his struggle to convert his shot attempts and his defensive reputation, the team was better when he played than when he didn’t. If Lou was getting exploited, why was the Clippers’ defensive rating better when he played than when he sat?

If your hypothesis is that Lou was exploited vs Denver, that’s fine, but the data clearly shows it wasn’t the case.