Mann/George/Leonard/Morris/Zubac: 142 minutes, +11.8 points per 100 possessions, shooting 7% better than opponents from the field, 6.2% better from 3 taking 6 fewer attempts per 100, taking 3 fewer free throws than opponents, slight advantages or disadvantages in all other categories.

Almost all the minutes were accumulated in the month prior to the trade deadline. Opponents: Spurs without Vassell (14-32 record), Mavs without Kleber and Wood (25-23), Lakers without AD and Reaves (22-26), Bucks without Portis (35-17), Knicks without Robinson (28-26), Nets without KD, Kyrie, Simmons or any of the guys traded for (32-21), Mavs without Doncic and Kleber (30-26), Warriors without Curry and Wiggins at home (29-29), Suns without KD (32-28). Cumulative opponent record: 247- 228 (.520). W/L record: 7-2. Favorites to win: vs Spurs, Lakers, Nets, Mavs without Doncic, 4 must-wins. Underdogs: vs Bucks. Slight favourites: vs Mavs without Kleber and Wood and Warriors at home, no Curry or Wiggins, vs Knicks without Robinson, 3 games. 50/50: vs Suns without KD. I think they slightly overachieved vs this schedule, 6-3 or 7-2 feels like a logical outcome.

Westbrook/George/Leonard/Morris/Zubac: 76 minutes (~54%), +12.5 points per 100 possessions, shooting 8.1% better than opponents from the field, 5.6% better from 3 taking 5 fewer attempts per 100, taking 1.4 free throws MORE than opponents, better rebounding and assist numbers, slightly better in blocks, slightly worse in steals.

Opponents: Wolves without KAT (32-32), Grizzlies without Ja, Adams and Brooks (38-25), Raptors (32-35), Knicks without Brunson (39-30), Warriors without Wiggins at home (36-34). Cumulative opponent record: 177 – 156 (.531). W/L record: 4-1. Favorites to win: vs Grizzlies and Knicks. Underdogs: 0 games. Slight favourites to win: vs Warriors without Wiggins at home, vs Raptors after the Poeltl trade, vs Wolves. I think 4-1 is a realistic outcome vs this on the upper end of the spectrum, also a slight overachievement.

Both schedules were tough, both lineups faced very few opponents at full strength. Their ratings are very similar in the majority of categories. To add the last bit of detail and make the comparison as fair as possible, individual stats:

Zubac with Mann over this stretch: 36-80 from the field (45%) for 89 points, about 10 points on 9 shots a game. Mann assisted Zubac 24 times total, not just with this lineup, and Zubac converted at a 64.9% clip.
Zubac with Russ: 25-34 from the field (73.5%) for 62 points, about 12 points on 7 shots a game. Russ assisted Zubac 9 times total, not just with this lineup, and Zubac converted passes at a 75% clip.

As we’re mostly talking dunks and layups for bigs, another indicator for Westbrook’s passing quality. Plumlee 8-10 after Westbrook passes, 5-12 after Mann’s passes, exclusively 2-point field goals.

Morris with Mann: 29-72 (40.3%) from the field, 12-34 (35.3%) from 3; Morris shoots 30.8% on 3s after Mann sets him up for a shot, 32.6% from 2-point range after Mann sets him up.
Morris with Russ: 9-25 (36%) from the field, 4-11 from 3 (36.4%). Morris shoots 37.5% from the field after Russ sets him up, 2-4 from 3.

Morris has performed similarly with regards to shooting percentage. The conversion rate after passes has a little to do with shot quality but a lot more with shooting luck as the vast majority of these shots will be jump shots for Morris. The two key differences are that Morris has taken 5 shots total a game with Russ and 8 total with Mann. This can be a result of total minutes per game, a positive sign that he contributes more to spacing and offensive balance in the Mann lineups (as he’s taking almost twice as many 3s per game) or a negative sign because Morris overall is inefficient. Therefore I’ll leave the interpretation open until we have a larger sample size and can pay attention to this while watching games.

Paul George with Mann: 72-147 (49.0%) from the field, 24-61 (39.3%) from 3. Mann has 9 assists over this stretch (also including the games Kawhi or Morris missed but to simplify let’s assume it’s 1 assist per game) to PG13 who shoots 58.3% from 2-point range (2.7 attempts per game) and 42.1% from 3 (2.3 attempts per game) after passes from Mann. For the season, Mann assisted him 17 times.

Paul George with Russ: 48-105 (45.7%) from the field, 15-40 from 3 (37.5%). Russ has 19 assists to PG over 5 games (3.8 per game) and George shoots 45.7% from 2-point range (7 attempts per game) and 42.1% from 3 (3.8 attempts per game) after passes from Russ.

Paul George, like Zubac, pretty clearly seems to benefit from Westbrook’s playmaking. He gets way more shots per game and more attempts from deep per game off that playmaking. However, the 58.3% from 2-point range after passes from Mann are worth noting and keeping an eye on it. Possibilities: a) better spacing for PG13 with Mann instead of Russ/easier drives and cuts (a near-certainty this is a factor) b) small sample size (3 fewer makes after Mann’s passes and the percentages are the same) c) the Mann lineups faced less rim protection (Ayton, Powell, Powell/Wood, Hartenstein/Sims, Bryant) in 5 of their 9 games, along with less depth. The Russ lineups went up against Poltl/Achiuwa, Gobert/Reid, Draymond/Looney, Robinson/Hartenstein and JJJ/Tillman without really a game vs lesser rim protectors. I think also a near-certainty this affected PG’s finishing rate inside. There’s some interesting details to keep an eye on. Overall, I wouldn’t be surprised if Russ helps PG more with regards to volume of shots/fewer isos/more open 3s and Mann helps him more as a floor-spacer/with driving lanes and occasionally finding him on a cut for a high-percentage layup.

Kawhi with Mann: 84-165 from the field (50.9%), 20-41 from 3 (48.8%). Mann has only 3 assists to Kawhi over the entire stretch (including games missed by PG/Morris and including other lineups) but Kawhi finishes 65% on 2-pointers after passes from Mann (2.2 attempts per game). Unfortunately just 27.3% on 3s (1.2 attempts per game).

Kawhi with Russ: 48-95 from the field (50.5%), 13-27 from 3 (48.1%), nearly identical. Russ has 10 assists to Kawhi (2 per game) and Kawhi shoots 47.1% on 2-pointers (6.8 attempts per game) and 54.5% on 3s after his passes (2.2 attempts a game).

As with Paul George, Russ does indeed help Kawhi get way more assisted shots. As with PG, Kawhi finishes at a very high percentage on 2-pointers after passes from Mann. Eye-test on this one, please and what kind of shots the stars get after Mann passes to them. I cautiously double down on my previous statement: the gravity of Mann as a scorer and shooter creates quality shots for the stars whereas the playmaking and ability to collapse defenses from Russ helps Kawhi and PG to run fewer isos and get a lot more assisted shots off. On average they might be of solid quality whereas Mann only occasionally gets into the position to set these guys up (or is in a good position to finish himself) but when he does, they may very well get high-percentage shots off his playmaking. Again, eye-test on this one please.

That’s playmaking and general lineup stats. On defense, both Russ and Mann get steals, the lineup data defensively is similar, the DEFRTG of them is pretty close. They do have different skillsets on defense but the differences don’t look too extreme to me. Further underlined by a nearly identical DBPM on the Clippers. Sure, Russ played way more minutes with Kawhi and PG, otoh he missed Zubac for 4 of the 5 games, played the tougher schedule and primarily faced starting opposition. Defensively, this needs a larger sample size. My guess is the discrepancy won’t be too big by the end of the season. Scoring:

Mann was a blistering 47-76 (61.8%!) from the field in the 9 games where he started in this lineup. 18-32 (56.3%!) from 3. He scored 129 points total (14.3 per game), all values way above his season averages. Which tells me a) that that kind of efficiency is unsustainable (the volume might be) b) that he might benefit big time from playing with this lineup and c) it confirms the previous theory that he had more (infinitely more) gravity as a scorer over this stretch which must have created a lot of extra space for Kawhi and PG. All these numbers should drop, especially the 3-point percentage but it wouldn’t surprise me if Mann/Kawhi/PG had a scoring and efficiency synergy the way Russ has a playmaking and efficiency synergy with big men.

Russ shot 21 for 50 from the field (42.0%) over 5 games and 5-15 from 3 (33.3%). Both numbers around his season averages. There wasn’t enough volume from 3 to create any kind of spacing for others that way. His offensive contributions stem from forcing help defense on-ball, his passing and occasionally pushing the pace or setting a screen. Both Russ and Mann have to be boxed out on the glass.

In conclusion, I can only say three things:

1) There’s a lot of interesting details but I want a bigger sample size and the help of the eye-test on these data points.
2) Both players have clearly contributed (on offense in very different ways) and also benefitted from this lineup (I believe Russ more on defense, Mann more on offense).
3) We can NOT say with certainty that one player is better than the other or in general a better fit with this lineup. All data points show you differences in playing style and the way they contribute but the overall results are extremely similar –> so simply play the guy more who has the better night or play both.

• Westbrook shoots WORSE in wins than in losses this season. He’s 20.8% from 3 in WINS and 35.7% from 3 in losses. He gets to the line more and shoots a better free throw percentage – in losses. He gets more steals – in losses (1.3 to 0.8 in wins). So I pursued this a little more.
• He shoots less in wins (2.8 fewer attempts) and in spite of the percentages from 3 and from the line, the difference in true shooting percentage ain’t massive (5.1% better true shooting in losses). It ain’t marginal either so there gotta be more.
• His assist-to-turnover ratio. 8.3 assists to 3.3 turnovers in wins, 6.8 to 3.7 turnovers in losses. That seems to be the biggest factor determining whether he’s a positive or a negative. 2:1 assist-to-turnover ratio might be around neutral.

So how about Clippers data?

• Russ shoots better from the line (71.4% to 65.5%) but gets there less (2.3 to 4.6 attempts).
• 3-point percentages are very much the same on the Lakers and Clippers, so are assists per game and turnovers per game along with minutes.
• His true shooting percentage was 49.6% with the Lakers. It’s up to 54.9% with the Clippers. Not gold but not an issue either. Especially factoring in the next point:
• Russ shoots fewer on the Clippers (after already decreasing attempts on the Lakers). 11.2 attempts per game (30 seconds extra playing time per game) instead of 14 attempts with the Lakers. Looking at wins and losses and his inefficiency as a scorer, that’s a definite positive. It further feeds into my observations over the years: Russ is better with other scorers around and when he focuses on playmaking (or screen assists, something he does more on the Clippers).
• His usage rate is down to 22.7% (from 27.6% on the Lakers).
• Pace is down to 102.87 (from 105.60). While he’ll boost most team’s pace, Russ looks much better to me in half-court sets than he did on the Lakers. This was especially true vs the Wolves, after the 1st quarter vs Toronto and in his second game vs the Warriors. All these teams tried to force him to his weaknesses and the only success so far came in the first Warriors game (exacerbated by zero shooting around) and in the 1st quarter vs the Raptors. Lue found counters in the other situations, encouraging.

Team data:

• Clippers have a 117.4 OFFRTG with Russ on the floor (Lakers 113.4). DEFRTG is 113.4 (Lakers 114.4), net rating plus 4.0 (according to nba.com). Basketball reference has him at 119.3 and 114.8, I don’t know where the discrepancy stems from but the values are similar.
• More encouraging here is the strength of schedule so far, these values could further improve. Moreover, the numbers for the 6 games in March are stronger than the February numbers (9.4 net rating in March). Overall plus minus is +2.0 (-0.8 with the Lakers) and +5.3 in March (-2.3 in February which is a mix of Lakers and Clippers games).

I wonder how unusual these shooting percentages in wins/losses are. Will get back to it with comparisons to other players and what changed after the trade deadline for the Clippers.

Same thing I’ve always said when it came/comes to the other scapegoats. If we’re gonna nitpick someones game, let’s do it to EVERYONE! No one should get singled out. PG is perhaps my fav Clipper, mainly cuz of how he rides for the team, but he’s the one I criticize the most lol all withhin reason though

Folks can say what they want about Brooks but I can def see him affecting PG & we can’t have that lol

I may be misinterpreting that term/stat but that’s simply how I view it

I’d like to stop with this discussion but gotta defend my guy against takes like these. Get back to those first 5 games, Russ only was an issue in the Warriors game where nearly everybody played poorly. What we did see in the games that were close were underwhelming games from Norm or EG or Morris, bench lineups getting killed and a massive turnover and playmaking issue vs the Wolves – except for Westbrook.

Apply the same standard to everyone: if EG plays like Russ vs Denver or Minnesota, do they lose? Most likely not. If Mann plays like Russ vs Denver (especially on defense), do they trail after the 3rd? Probably not. Westbrook scored 11 points in the 3rd on 4-6 shooting with two of his five steals. Didn’t play a second after. Morris, Mann, Powell and Bones did zero, Gordon and Bones did zero in the 4th, Powell was bad. Mann fouled a lot. In OT nobody did anything and they had zero assists to 3 turnovers. You got exactly the guys playing you wanted, Russ had a good game, didn’t close and the people you advocate for didn’t produce and lost the game. Yet here we are arguing that the total opposite of what happened in reality must be true, Westbrook cost them games they barely lost while he was performing anywhere between solid and really well in at least 3 of the 5 and the team collectively came up short in the other two. There is no logic to the argument, worse, there’s strong indicators that the team wins more than 3 out of 8 had others performed at Westbrook’s level.

Don’t make this Mann vs Russ, don’t single Westbrook out. It’s about team success. Best example: you didn’t hear a peep from me when Russ didn’t close while Mann and Gordon were playing well (last 3 games). But I’m gonna stand up for my guy when obviously false statements are not only made once – but pushed as narratives again and again. The losses were in no way wins if only Mann or Gordon had taken Westbrook’s minutes. If you disagree with that, please make a conclusive argument based on specifics, not opinion and speculation. There’s no such thing as Russ performing poorly in the losses while his replacements didn’t. Everyone was trash on defense in the first Kings game, the team had zero chance in the first Warriors game when Russ was bad as well, he arguably outplayed or vastly outplayed others in the other 3 losses and all other games were wins, with him being a steady contributor. All vs really, really strong competition, not even the Raptors or Knicks without Brunson are a gimme. Disagreement – no problem. But also fairness and same standards for all, please.

All that to say: I rather face the elite offense of the Kings than the potentially elite and deep two-way squad that Memphis can be when they play their best basketball.